True Trade Value Of The #1 Pick

[wallieump99]

I've seen quite a variety of suggestions with regards to the #1 overall pick's trade value - I know we have the "trade value chart", but what do you think is the true value of the #1 overall pick.

[Captain Americolt]

I heard somehwere around 3 firsts, 2 seconds, and a few late rounders

[Andy]

A first overall pick is worth a 15th overall pick, 3 2nd round picks and 3 3rd round picks

http://www.sportznutz.com/nfl/draft/draft_point_value_chart.htm

[pacolts56]

This year.... there is probably an "Andrew Luck" premium on the pick.

The trade value chart puts 3000 points on the 1st overall pick.

If the Colts trade it down.... they could probably get 4500 points in compensation.

[riftastic28]

FOR luck its going to be out the roof 3 first rounders 2 second rounders maybe a 4th

[19colt]

So who will trade with the Colts? Browns? Redskins?

[wallieump99]

If we go with the 3000 value - we could take Cleveland for the ~#4/, ~#25 (from ATL), and their ~#36. That's 3060 points. If we're saying there's a premium - maybe we take a first rounder next year or a first and a second next year. What's the "discount rate" for waiting a year on the pick?

Under the first scenario we'd own picks: #4, #25, #33, #36 - pretty good first 40 picks ;)

[runyon27]

FOR luck its going to be out the roof 3 first rounders 2 second rounders maybe a 4th

Well the trade value is based on what you get in return not some random number of picks. If your trade partner has lower picks you can get more in return if he has a higher pick you wont get the same number of picks per se.

[doogansquest]

3 1st, 2 2nd. Maybe more if the majority of those picks can't be had from this year's draft, or the team in question is drafting later in the round.

[oldunclemark]

3 1st, 2 2nd. Maybe more if the majority of those picks can't be had from this year's draft, or the team in question is drafting later in the round.

Okay then.......if Cleveland is willing to give us both of their 1st round picks now..

..and their 1st pick in 2013....

..plus their 2nd round pick in both 2012 and 2013.....(and Colt McCoy to back up Manning)

I'd consider taking that deal..you'd have to.

[BOTT]

if they trade luck, and that's a big if, they would be wise to get a proven player(s) included in the deal. i don't want a bunch of good players when peyton is watching on his couch.

[Pancake Block]

if they trade luck, and that's a big if, they would be wise to get a proven player(s) included in the deal. i don't want a bunch of good players when peyton is watching on his couch.

I hate to say this, but I've got the feeling that Peyton may be watching from his couch next year. He's got two kids at home and I just don't think he'll risk going back out on the field with that neck condition.

[super8todd]

the True value of the #1 PICK, IS.... The Colts in the playoffs for the next decade because of Andrew Luck.. how about that?

[wallieump99]

Using the Julio Jones trade as a base case -

Colts give:

2012 - #1

Cleveland Gives:

2012 - #4

2012 - #25

2012 - #57

2013 - #1

See:

[husker61]

What's the "discount rate" for waiting a year on the pick?

one round. a 1st next year would be valued like a 2nd this year.

[BOTT]

I hate to say this, but I've got the feeling that Peyton may be watching from his couch next year. He's got two kids at home and I just don't think he'll risk going back out on the field with that neck condition.

there are linebackers that have played after having the same procedure....but since you have a feeling i'm sure peyton will retire.