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Colts believe Phillip Dorsett will be a superstar


TKnight24

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You obviously understand very little about probability theory. Are there lottery winners.... sure .... but what are the odds of one winning the lottery. Every pick is a risk/reward scenario and if you do not know how to apply the actuarial science to it you will most likely end up with a bust. Doesn't mean that Dorsett will be that but without doing the probability math I would say that the odds are definitely not in his favor. The variables that would carry the biggest negative weight are height, weight and body structure, followed by things like injury history, joint size etc.Picking a DL or OL changes the probability of sucessfull outcome plus fills an immediate need. But hey, it's not my money on the line.

 

Please prove a causal link between size and injury probability in the NFL.

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I inferred that's what he meant by this:

 

"or liked the chances of getting that player in a later round better (such as a Smith or Anderson)"

 

If not then I apologize. 

 

I'll also submit that targeting includes potential trade-ups in later rounds, which doesn't undermine BPA at all.

 

But that's another matter.

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Saying there's no way that two players on other teams could outproduce two players on your favorite team, without any of them having took a single snap in the NFL is homerism. 

 

 

It's got zero to do with that.  When you stack the players together regardless of whose team they are on the argument does not hold water. Especially when you look at the value we got on Anderson, a player you had rated in your own rankings as someone who was worth being drafted in the 2nd round.   I mean that's what you trying to demonstrate to us is an argument based on package value. 

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You obviously understand very little about probability theory. Are there lottery winners.... sure .... but what are the odds of one winning the lottery. Every pick is a risk/reward scenario and if you do not know how to apply the actuarial science to it you will most likely end up with a bust. Doesn't mean that Dorsett will be that but without doing the probability math I would say that the odds are definitely not in his favor. The variables that would carry the biggest negative weight are height, weight and body structure, followed by things like injury history, joint size etc.Picking a DL or OL changes the probability of sucessfull outcome plus fills an immediate need. But hey, it's not my money on the line.

"Picking a DL or OL changes the probability of sucessfull outcome"

 

:funny: No it don't

 

"The variables that would carry the biggest negative weight is injury"

 

Fixed for you

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:thmdown:

it's true seems there was no better choice according to this board. But IMO there was no need to stack the WR position just like Dustin said if lockette wasn't there later big deal worst case scenario we go into the season with TY Andre and Moncrief plus Carter and Brown
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lol you act like we have to agree with Dustin and not argue over it

it's not that you have to agree with him it's the fact that anyone who disliked the pick me and Dustin included are wrong no matter what is said like there was no other possibilities out there whatsoever
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it's true seems there was no better choice according to this board. But IMO there was no need to stack the WR position just like Dustin said if lockette wasn't there later big deal worst case scenario we go into the season with TY Andre and Moncrief plus Carter and Brown

 

The bolded is deliberately misstating the positions in this thread, and in general on this topic over the last three months.

 

Not only that, but the draft isn't about filling needs. But you've heard that before...

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Fell? He went right where he was projected at. 

 

 

Not for nothing but where do you get your information on where a player is suppose to fall in a draft ? Do you have people that have access to a bunch of draft boards and then do a composite type rating to get the "projection ?" I've been an avid follower od the draft for around 40 years and all I can really find is just mosty "talking head " stuff. The only really concrete thing I can find on what other teams thought of Dorsett was the fact that Houston wanted to trade with NE to draft him. But that tells me little . They could have had him ranked 15th and Kevin Johnson 13th. Could be they had him at 26th on their board . I guess I just don't buy into the "projected" theme at all.

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it's not that you have to agree with him it's the fact that anyone who disliked the pick me and Dustin included are wrong no matter what is said like there was no other possibilities out there whatsoever

 

 

You have a right to dislike the pick

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it's true seems there was no better choice according to this board. But IMO there was no need to stack the WR position just like Dustin said if lockette wasn't there later big deal worst case scenario we go into the season with TY Andre and Moncrief plus Carter and Brown

You just hear what you want to hear (read, rather).

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it's true seems there was no better choice according to this board. But IMO there was no need to stack the WR position just like Dustin said if lockette wasn't there later big deal worst case scenario we go into the season with TY Andre and Moncrief plus Carter and Brown

Only 2 of those you named have shown in actual game situation to be big time wr's to this point, Moncrief showed promise but even if you factor him in that's 4 wr's......Browns really a non factor...The dude had 471 yards and 1 td starting 12 games in 2013 and playing in all 16.......Hardly a factor at all and that was with Phillip Rivers as his QB who had a pretty big year in 2013...Carter has not even taken a real snap yet so no point in factoring him into the discussion until he at least catches a pass in a game

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Only 2 of those you named have shown in actual game situation to be big time wr's to this point, Moncrief showed promise but even if you factor him in that's 4 wr's......Browns really a non factor...The dude had 471 yards and 1 td starting 12 games in 2013 and playing in all 16.......Hardly a factor at all and that was with Phillip Rivers as his QB who had a pretty big year in 2013...Carter has not even taken a real snap yet so no point in factoring him into the discussion until he at least catches a pass in a game

 

Brown probably won't make the roster. Looks like Whalen is outplaying him in camp so far, and that's for the 6th spot. 

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Only 2 of those you named have shown in actual game situation to be big time wr's to this point, Moncrief showed promise but even if you factor him in that's 4 wr's......Browns really a non factor...The dude had 471 yards and 1 td starting 12 games in 2013 and playing in all 16.......Hardly a factor at all and that was with Phillip Rivers as his QB who had a pretty big year in 2013...Carter has not even taken a real snap yet so no point in factoring him into the discussion until he at least catches a pass in a game

and dorsette is a known commodity??
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Not for nothing but where do you get your information on where a player is suppose to fall in a draft ? Do you have people that have access to a bunch of draft boards and then do a composite type rating to get the "projection ?" I've been an avid follower od the draft for around 40 years and all I can really find is just mosty "talking head " stuff. The only really concrete thing I can find on what other teams thought of Dorsett was the fact that Houston wanted to trade with NE to draft him. But that tells me little . They could have had him ranked 15th and Kevin Johnson 13th. Could be they had him at 26th on their board . I guess I just don't buy into the "projected" theme at all.

No I don't. I assumed the person I was responding to meant he fell in relation to popular opinion. I forgot that Grigson said he had him top 20.

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Brown probably won't make the roster. Looks like Whalen is outplaying him in camp so far, and that's for the 6th spot. 

I don't think we carry 6 actually, If it came down to a 6th wr or a 4th rb I'd go 4th rb........Gore....Boom......Ballard(If  healthy).....Robinson. Then have Varga on the PS

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No I don't. I assumed the person I was responding to meant he fell in relation to popular opinion. I forgot that Grigson said he had him top 20.

 

 

Ahh got ya. I thought you were being facetious when you said that.

 

And you're correct on popular opinion 

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You obviously understand very little about probability theory. Are there lottery winners.... sure .... but what are the odds of one winning the lottery. Every pick is a risk/reward scenario and if you do not know how to apply the actuarial science to it you will most likely end up with a bust. Doesn't mean that Dorsett will be that but without doing the probability math I would say that the odds are definitely not in his favor. The variables that would carry the biggest negative weight are height, weight and body structure, followed by things like injury history, joint size etc.Picking a DL or OL changes the probability of sucessfull outcome plus fills an immediate need. But hey, it's not my money on the line.

Tell all that to Joe Thomas

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I feel like dorsett WAS the best option for DEFENSE.  He makes us stronger on offense, which will allow us to score quickly, and gain a lead.  which will allow the defense to pin their ears back and get after the QB and not have to worry about the run D as much. It will give more opportunities to make more plays on D since it will give our DBs some chances at interceptions. 

 

Backwards logic I know. but getting a fantastic run stopper in the middle of the Defensive line doesn't help us score points... :)

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

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I don't think we carry 6 actually, If it came down to a 6th wr or a 4th rb I'd go 4th rb........Gore....Boom......Ballard(If  healthy).....Robinson. Then have Varga on the PS

 

Which makes it even less likely that Brown makes the roster, barring injury.

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Dorsett was talked about as a potential late 1st round guy on more then one occasion....As to Goode.......A bit of an extreme example don't you think?

 

You bet it is.....   but this is more of the same from Dustin.     Of course that's a ridiculous example and he knows it.  

 

But Dustin takes a position and he doesn't move off it -- period.

 

I may be confident in my views,  but I try hard not to presume that I know more than an NFL general manager. 

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Only 2 of those you named have shown in actual game situation to be big time wr's to this point, Moncrief showed promise but even if you factor him in that's 4 wr's......Browns really a non factor...The dude had 471 yards and 1 td starting 12 games in 2013 and playing in all 16.......Hardly a factor at all and that was with Phillip Rivers as his QB who had a pretty big year in 2013...Carter has not even taken a real snap yet so no point in factoring him into the discussion until he at least catches a pass in a game

 

I don't know if you've seen it,  but on a story on Colts.com,  there was a quote saying that Carter makes at least one play every day that makes everyone take notice.     Sounds like he's having a very good camp so far.

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it's true seems there was no better choice according to this board. But IMO there was no need to stack the WR position just like Dustin said if lockette wasn't there later big deal worst case scenario we go into the season with TY Andre and Moncrief plus Carter and Brown

Who has said there wasn't a better choice?

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Which makes it even less likely that Brown makes the roster, barring injury.

I think Brown was competing for the Return job anyway, Not any significant snaps on offense barring injuries, I actually have Dorsett winning Returner duties(and being our 4th wr) with Carter being our 5th wr

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I don't know if you've seen it,  but on a story on Colts.com,  there was a quote saying that Carter makes at least one play every day that makes everyone take notice.     Sounds like he's having a very good camp so far.

Which no doubt is good for him, Im happy the kid is getting positive words and thoughts thrown his way and is having a good camp but you really make the roster in pre-season not in 1 padded practice and the others without pads

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You mean just like Dustin acts like whoever thinks it's a good pick is wrong?

given his position on the pick, how else is he supposed to respond? Of course he thinks you are all wrong.....just as all you guys think he is.

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