Colts believe Phillip Dorsett will be a superstar

[Colt Forty-Five]

The answer to your question is [obviously] "no." 

 

 No but I will get those for you. Just going on simple laws of physics. I would guess them to hold true in this case as well.

[shakedownstreet]

then he can say, "i'm phillip * dorsett, superstar"

Edited August 7, 2015 by Nadine

[Superman]

What do you mean?

 

I mean when you decide who you're going to draft at #29, you're not weighing whether you can have a great WR + an average ILB vs a really good WR + a great ILB. You're just using that one pick to take the best player available that fits your team, with respect to value.

 

I understand your point about the value of a WR, even though I don't fully agree about the extent to which the position is devalued, particularly in the draft. Philosophically, most would rather have the more balanced option, especially if you have a great QB. But that's not how draft decisions are made.

 

I think your point would be more applicable if Grigson had taken another WR in a later round, rather than a highly rated ILB (or any other position that would balance out the roster). 

[BPindy]

I'm a fan of BPA when it represents the best value. There are positions that are inherently more important than others. Dorsett doesn't represent good value, because he's not so much better than the other options picked after him (Tyler Lockett and Devin Smith for example), that it's worth taking a low value position (especially at a position you don't need and have shown competence at drafting in the middle rounds) over ones that are inherently more important (pass rusher, interior d-line, cornerback, linebacker, ect...)

Ex. If I gave you two choices (A) You could have Demaryius Thomas and some random league average ILB or (B) Randall Cobb and CJ Mosely.

I think we'd both agree that Thomas is better than Cobb (and even if we don't let's assume for the sake of argument he is). Taking A over B would give you an upgrade at the WR position. You'd be getting a top 5 WR. But, if you took B, you'd still be getting a good WR, probably a top 10 guy, but you'd also be getting an great ILB to bolster your defense.

A. Is what Grigson did. And I don't agree that that is the best philosophy for building a team.

All that being said, I don't think Dorsett was the BPA either.

The problem I have with this is that you have no idea how players are going to pan out. You don't know you're getting C.J Mosley, and if the Colts didn't see any of the defensive players left on the board as that type of talent, then of course they're going with the guy that they think is a top 20 player (regardless of position)

[Superman]

 No but I will get those for you. Just going on simple laws of physics. I would guess them to hold true in this case as well.

 

Don't worry about it. We can go right back to the point previously made: there are plenty of examples of smaller receivers that have good careers without significant injury. Acting like Dorsett's size means he'll be injured and/or not durable is illogical, given these examples.

[Dustin]

The problem I have with this is that you have no idea how players are going to pan out. You don't know you're getting C.J Mosley, and if the Colts didn't see any of the defensive players left on the board as that type of talent, then of course they're going with the guy that they think is a top 20 player (regardless of position)

 

It's about maximizing your chances of getting a C.J. Mosely-esque player.

[BPindy]

It's about maximizing your chances of getting a C.J. Mosely-esque player.

Clearly they didn't like their chances, or liked the chances of getting that player in a later round better (such as a Smith or Anderson)

[Dustin]

Clearly they didn't like their chances, or liked the chances of getting that player in a later round better (such as a Smith or Anderson)

 

I don't think there's anything clear about that. I just think they took their best player on their board each round.

 

Targeting a player later in the draft is in direct contrast with the idea of BPA. If we believe that they were targeting Smith and Anderson later in the draft, then from that we can conclude that they were not in fact drafting BPA. 

[Dustin]

I mean when you decide who you're going to draft at #29, you're not weighing whether you can have a great WR + an average ILB vs a really good WR + a great ILB. You're just using that one pick to take the best player available that fits your team, with respect to value.

 

But you should be. 

 

To use a crude example, it's why QBs are rarely taken high in fantasy football leagues, their output isn't far enough apart to give up the chance to grab a bellcow RB or WR. 

 

Why take Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when I can get Tony Romo in the 5th and still draft Jamaal Charles? Why take Phillip Dorsett in the 1st when I can take Tyler Lockett in the 2nd and still take Malcom Brown? 

[Colts_Fan12]

A perfect explanation that has no relevance to drafting.

point is Dorsett isn't that much better then lockette and smith and they were taken later. sure everyone will say he was a lot better in grigsons eyes but that don't mean he is right but it's done were stuck with him

[NewColtsFan]

But you should be. 

 

To use a crude example, it's why QBs are rarely taken high in fantasy football leagues, their output isn't far enough apart to give up the chance to grab a bellcow RB or WR. 

 

Why take Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when I can get Tony Romo in the 5th and still draft Jamaal Charles? Why take Phillip Dorsett in the 1st when I can take Tyler Lockett in the 2nd and still take Malcom Brown? 

 

You're making an argument based on evidence AFTER the fact.     You now know that Lockett would've been available in the 2nd round.     But you didn't know that during the draft.

 

Dorsett was said to be ranked in the teens on the Colts' board.   13-19.    Everyone else was likely in the mid to low 20's or in the 2nd round.      They took the guy they felt was clearly BPA in this case.     They loved him.    Now whether they should or not is another story.    But they loved him.    And they didn't know if Lockett would be available at 61.

 

Most everything looks obvious with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.

 

Grigson told us what he'd do roughly a week before the draft and he did it.    Took the best player on the board regardless of positional need because he wasn't just the highest ranked player,  he was the highest ranked player by a wide margin.   Those were Grigson's words BEFORE and AFTER the draft.    

[RockThatBlue]

so it was a good pick then?

Yup. People whining about the pick 5+ years from now will be singing Dorsetts praises if he turns out to be great.

For the record I wasn't a huge fan of the pick, but I'm willing to give him a chance and didn't have a meltdown over it.

[Dustin]

You're making an argument based on evidence AFTER the fact.     You now know that Lockett would've been available in the 2nd round.     But you didn't know that during the draft.

 

There was not a single indication that Lockett would be gone before the 2nd pick. NFL GMs have to guess during the draft too, and Lockett being available at the end of the 2nd was as safe a best as any and turned out to be the case. 

 

And what's the worst case scenario if he's not there anyway? We have to go into the 2015 season with only T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Andre Johnson as our starting WRs? 

[RockThatBlue]

5'10" - 185lbs .... that's your sisters size. I guess she could play in the NFL too? We all know how this story will end but we still go there with blinders.

You do realize TY Hilton is practically the exact same size?

Here's another one. Marvin Harrison, one of the greatest of all time was a very small WR. Are you new to football or what?

[Colts_Fan12]

And what's the worst case scenario if he's not there anyway? We have to go into the 2015 season with only T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Andre Johnson as our starting WRs?

Exactly some act like we would have been terrible with that at WR. You don't need a stable of all star WRs when you have a QB like Luck.

[BlueCollarColts]

There was not a single indication that Lockett would be gone before the 2nd pick. NFL GMs have to guess during the draft too, and Lockett being available at the end of the 2nd was as safe a best as any and turned out to be the case.

And what's the worst case scenario if he's not there anyway? We have to go into the 2015 season with only T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Andre Johnson as our starting WRs?

You and me both didn't know whether he'd be there at 61. Indication or not the simple truth is Grigs didn't know and you can't argue that.

[ColtsLegacy]

You and me both didn't know whether he'd be there at 61. Indication or not the simple truth is Grigs didn't know and you can't argue that.

And even if he was there at 61, would the FO have even liked him there?

[ColtsLegacy]

Exactly some act like we would have been terrible with that at WR. You don't need a stable of all star WRs when you have a QB like Luck.

Nobody is acting like that.

[Colts_Fan12]

Nobody is acting like that.

there has been countless people saying "without the Dorsett pick we would be in trouble" when in reality TY Andre Moncrief and Carter would have been just fine especially when we have Fleener and Allen at TE and Gore at RB our offense would have been fine. But our FO thought it was necessary to be stacked at WR instead of just being ok to good at WR.

[Dustin]

You and me both didn't know whether he'd be there at 61

 

I didn't know if Denzell Goode would be there at 29, but it was a pretty safe bet. 

[Superman]

I don't think there's anything clear about that. I just think they took their best player on their board each round.

 

Targeting a player later in the draft is in direct contrast with the idea of BPA. If we believe that they were targeting Smith and Anderson later in the draft, then from that we can conclude that they were not in fact drafting BPA. 

 

Bap didn't say anything about targeting players in later rounds.

[Grigs build the lines plz.]

there has been countless people saying "without the Dorsett pick we would be in trouble" when in reality TY Andre Moncrief and Carter would have been just fine especially when we have Fleener and Allen at TE and Gore at RB our offense would have been fine. But our FO thought it was necessary to be stacked at WR instead of just being ok to good at WR.

This receiver lineup is still better than the majority of the NFL.

[Dustin]

Bap didn't say anything about targeting players in later rounds.

 

I inferred that's what he meant by this:

 

"or liked the chances of getting that player in a later round better (such as a Smith or Anderson)"

 

If not then I apologize. 

[BPindy]

point is Dorsett isn't that much better then lockette and smith and they were taken later. sure everyone will say he was a lot better in grigsons eyes but that don't mean he is right but it's done were stuck with him

No one is guaranteed to be right. So if Grigson thinks Dorsett way better than later options, so be it. Especially if he considered Brown a second round talent.

[krunk]

You're making an argument based on evidence AFTER the fact.     You now know that Lockett would've been available in the 2nd round.     But you didn't know that during the draft.

 

Dorsett was said to be ranked in the teens on the Colts' board.   13-19.    Everyone else was likely in the mid to low 20's or in the 2nd round.      They took the guy they felt was clearly BPA in this case.     They loved him.    Now whether they should or not is another story.    But they loved him.    And they didn't know if Lockett would be available at 61.

 

Most everything looks obvious with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.

 

Grigson told us what he'd do roughly a week before the draft and he did it.    Took the best player on the board regardless of positional need because he wasn't just the highest ranked player,  he was the highest ranked player by a wide margin.   Those were Grigson's words BEFORE and AFTER the draft.    

 

 

His value argument doesn't even hold up.  Lockett and Malcolm Brown when it's all said and done will not bring as much production than Dorsett and Henry Anderson.  Just won't happen.  And the thing that's missing here is he doesn't acknowledge the value or perceived value we got in picking up Anderson in the later rounds.  He had Anderson as high as the 2nd round in his own evaluations.

[ColtsLegacy]

there has been countless people saying "without the Dorsett pick we would be in trouble" when in reality TY Andre Moncrief and Carter would have been just fine especially when we have Fleener and Allen at TE and Gore at RB our offense would have been fine. But our FO thought it was necessary to be stacked at WR instead of just being ok to good at WR.

Nobody has said that.

[Gavin]

I didn't know if Denzell Goode would be there at 29, but it was a pretty safe bet. 

Dorsett was talked about as a potential late 1st round guy on more then one occasion....As to Goode.......A bit of an extreme example don't you think?

[Superman]

point is Dorsett isn't that much better then lockette and smith and they were taken later. sure everyone will say he was a lot better in grigsons eyes but that don't mean he is right but it's done were stuck with him

 

What's that got to do with drafting? You take your BPA, with respect to value.

 

This is also a conflation of two separate issues. It's very obvious that the Colts board valued Dorsett very highly, and whether that turns out to be accurate scouting or not remains to be seen. But taking their board as it obviously was, they were right to draft their highest rated player. According to Grigson, it wasn't even close, and the decision wasn't difficult. 

[Dustin]

His value argument doesn't even hold up.  Lockett and Malcolm Brown when it's all said and done will not bring as much production than Dorsett and Henry Anderson.  

 

This is pure homerism. 

[Dustin]

Dorsett was talked about as a potential late 1st round guy on more then one occasion....As to Goode.......A bit of an extreme example don't you think?

 

We're not talking about Dorsett. We're talking about Tyler Lockett. 

[BPindy]

I inferred that's what he meant by this:

"or liked the chances of getting that player in a later round better (such as a Smith or Anderson)"

If not then I apologize.

I can see why you would think that, no worries. I meant that he could've liked his chances of getting a stud defensive player in the next couple of rounds - not specifically Smith and Anderson

[krunk]

This is pure homerism. 

 

 

What's homerism?  My definition of what you doing is stubbornism

[krunk]

This is pure homerism. 

 

 

D the argument doesn't make sense.

[Dustin]

What's homerism?  My definition of what you doing is stubbornism

 

 

D the argument doesn't make sense.

 

Saying there's no way that two players on other teams could outproduce two players on your favorite team, without any of them having took a single snap in the NFL is homerism. 

[Gavin]

We're not talking about Dorsett. We're talking about Tyler Lockett. 

Ok change out Dorsetts name for Lockett, He was also talked about as a potential late 1st round pick

[SDakColts]

I have no doubt that the Colts would have taken Perriman if he hadn't gone before us. Just call it a hunch. But I think they liked him. 

I highly doubt that Perriman would of been our pick. If I remember correctly there was a report linked to someone in the organization that Dorsett was the #4 WR on our board. I am sure Dorsett was #4 behind the obvious top 3 Cooper, White, and Parker.

[Superman]

But you should be. 

 

To use a crude example, it's why QBs are rarely taken high in fantasy football leagues, their output isn't far enough apart to give up the chance to grab a bellcow RB or WR. 

 

Why take Aaron Rodgers in the 1st when I can get Tony Romo in the 5th and still draft Jamaal Charles? Why take Phillip Dorsett in the 1st when I can take Tyler Lockett in the 2nd and still take Malcom Brown? 

 

The primary difference between fantasy drafting and real drafting is that in fantasy leagues, you're drafting an entire team. You are eventually going to need to fill all these positions, so drafting for need is necessary. You can weigh those options, and you know you're only going to have those players for one season until you redraft your entire roster (save for keepers, where applicable).

 

I think you were more impressed with Malcom Brown than I was. That he fell to #32 suggests that his draft stock was a little over-hyped, and it's not hard to believe that the Colts didn't have him as high on their board. If it turns out that you're right about him, you can fault the Colts' scouting (mine also, and half the league). But that doesn't speak to their draft strategy, which, by all accounts, was BPA. They took the best player on their board. It wasn't Malcom Brown.

 

And that's what you advocated throughout draft season. Now you don't like the position of the player we wound up with, partly because you don't think he was that much better than others still available at his position, but that's a scouting issue, maybe even a roster management issue, but not a draft strategy issue. 

[Colt Forty-Five]

You do realize TY Hilton is practically the exact same size?

Here's another one. Marvin Harrison, one of the greatest of all time was a very small WR. Are you new to football or what?

 

You obviously understand very little about probability theory. Are there lottery winners.... sure .... but what are the odds of one winning the lottery. Every pick is a risk/reward scenario and if you do not know how to apply the actuarial science to it you will most likely end up with a bust. Doesn't mean that Dorsett will be that but without doing the probability math I would say that the odds are definitely not in his favor. The variables that would carry the biggest negative weight are height, weight and body structure, followed by things like injury history, joint size etc.Picking a DL or OL changes the probability of sucessfull outcome plus fills an immediate need. But hey, it's not my money on the line.

[Superman]

This is pure homerism. 

 

Meh; I don't like Brown that much. I loved Lockett, but Anderson was one of my favorite players in the draft. 

[Colts_Fan12]

This receiver lineup is still better than the majority of the NFL.

exactly there really is no need for it to be