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How the Bryant/Thomas contracts might impact TY Hilton's....


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Because we're playing the Jets in week 2,  I wanted to make a point about Smith...

 

I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but it's my understanding that Smith closed last year extremely strong.

 

Something like a 64% completion average and a TD/Int ratio of 6-2....   something close to that.

 

My point is....   as bad as Smith has been overall the last two years,  the light may have finally come on last December.   If so,  the Colts may be facing a much, much better QB than his overall numbers might suggest.....

 

Yeah, he was better down the stretch last season. Perfect passer rating in the finale. We'll see if that carries over.

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Because we're playing the Jets in week 2,  I wanted to make a point about Smith...

 

I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but it's my understanding that Smith closed last year extremely strong.

 

Something like a 64% completion average and a TD/Int ratio of 6-2....   something close to that.

 

My point is....   as bad as Smith has been overall the last two years,  the light may have finally come on last December.   If so,  the Colts may be facing a much, much better QB than his overall numbers might suggest.....

37-52 4TD's and a 1 int his last two games, 568 yards passing, Great the last two games

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Couple points of contention:

 

1) Grigson doesn't frontload contracts. He structures balanced contracts that aren't backloaded. 

 

2) Good teams add superstar talent primarily through the draft, not by signing free agents. So if you want to build a strong, balanced roster, the ability to bring in impact players in free agency is secondary to the ability to draft quality players and develop them in the pros. Then, once you develop them, keeping them becomes important. This is exemplified in Vontae Davis; even though we didn't draft him, we did get him cheap for two years, develop him, and then kept him on a relatively team-friendly contract that was still top ten at his position. Meanwhile, the Bills spent $96m on Mario Williams, and haven't sniffed the playoffs. Elite defensive talent doesn't walk out the door unless the player is completely overpriced, relative to his value.

 

So far, Grigson hasn't added a lot of star caliber talent on defense through the draft. Blame that on a couple of mistakes in back to back years, and some knuckleheads that blew their chances. And a couple free agent adds didn't quite work out -- Landry, Jones so far, etc. But as he gets better return on his draft picks -- Newsome, Smith, Anderson, etc. -- that should change. 

 

If the contention is that Hilton isn't worthy of the kind of money the market says it will take to keep him, that's a different conversation. Even if the contention is that he might be worthy of that kind of money, but isn't as valuable to the Colts, that's still another conversation. Much more nuanced, and one that is hard to reach any kind of definitive conclusion on.

 

But there's really no debating where the market is for a player with his production. Nor is there any debating whether the Colts can afford to pay him what the market currently demands; that was the whole point of the post I linked to. If the Colts feel that the value isn't there for them, and they let him walk, fine. Let's just not pretend that the market doesn't support his (assumed) demands, and let's not pretend that the Colts don't have the cap space to keep him.

The bolded underline is what my thinking is.  I'm not saying TY isn't talented enough or produce enough, nor am I saying he wouldn't get that much.  Especially with bringing in Dorsett, that is almost a carbon copy, I don't think it's in their better interest!  But my opinion was that we should've took a defensive player (Malcom Brown) in the first round anyway.  That would've gotten us better on the defensive side (lessen the need) and not create a surplus of receivers (especially the same type as TY)!

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Geno Smith has quite possibly been the worst QB in the league the past two seasons. Compare Decker's stats in 2014 with Reggie Wayne's stats in 2011. Terrible QBing can wipe a good receiver off the map.

I agree 100%.  My point was on the other side of the spectrum, with great QB's though.  That's why it's better to watch a players skill set rather than only looking at numbers.  ESPN lies... "Numbers Never Lie" lol.  It can be deceiving, is what I'm saying.  Andre Johnson never had a great QB though and he was always Pro Bowl caliber.  Schaub wasn't terrible (had a few good seasons), but on his down years Johnson still produced. 

 

IMHO WR's are alittle overrated, because there are MANY great young recievers that entered the league recently, therefore they're not as hard to come by.  Just like the transition when alot of teams started using a 2 back system.  The main star wasn't as important because he had backup.  Different situation, but similar concept.  My original point was that Andrew Luck doesn't necessarily need a TY Hilton in order to have success.  Look at Brady from years past, the value from having a better defense, has given him more (achievements) success than surrounding him with a ton of weapons on the offensive side of the ball!

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Because we're playing the Jets in week 2,  I wanted to make a point about Smith...

 

I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but it's my understanding that Smith closed last year extremely strong.

 

Something like a 64% completion average and a TD/Int ratio of 6-2....   something close to that.

 

My point is....   as bad as Smith has been overall the last two years,  the light may have finally come on last December.   If so,  the Colts may be facing a much, much better QB than his overall numbers might suggest.....

Yes, I don't know numbers but from what I remembered he did close out the season pretty good!  Plus he had a good game against the Pats midway through the season...

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The bolded underline is what my thinking is.  I'm not saying TY isn't talented enough or produce enough, nor am I saying he wouldn't get that much.  Especially with bringing in Dorsett, that is almost a carbon copy, I don't think it's in their better interest!  But my opinion was that we should've took a defensive player (Malcom Brown) in the first round anyway.  That would've gotten us better on the defensive side (lessen the need) and not create a surplus of receivers (especially the same type as TY)!

 

I think Dorsett is going to be better and have a better career than Brown, for sure. And most of the other defensive players still on the board, also, excepting a couple players that had character/injury issues, or didn't fit our defense. Best player available.

 

Either way, like I said, whether the Colts should pay Hilton market value or let him walk is a complicated issue. But it's not really a good idea to let really good players walk just because you think you're so good at finding replacements for them. Part of building a good roster and contending for a long time is retaining the players you drafted and developed, especially now that rookie contracts are only four years. Otherwise, you're trying to draft, develop and then replace good players every four years, and you never establish a core that grows together. That's okay with average to good players, but with difference makers -- which Hilton is -- you don't want to just shove them out the door. Especially not over a matter of maybe $2m/year.

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I agree 100%.  My point was on the other side of the spectrum, with great QB's though.  That's why it's better to watch a players skill set rather than only looking at numbers.  ESPN lies... "Numbers Never Lie" lol.  It can be deceiving, is what I'm saying.  Andre Johnson never had a great QB though and he was always Pro Bowl caliber.  Schaub wasn't terrible (had a few good seasons), but on his down years Johnson still produced. 

 

IMHO WR's are alittle overrated, because there are MANY great young recievers that entered the league recently, therefore they're not as hard to come by.  Just like the transition when alot of teams started using a 2 back system.  The main star wasn't as important because he had backup.  Different situation, but similar concept.  My original point was that Andrew Luck doesn't necessarily need a TY Hilton in order to have success.  Look at Brady from years past, the value from having a better defense, has given him more (achievements) success than surrounding him with a ton of weapons on the offensive side of the ball!

 

Matt Schaub wasn't terrible, until the very end. And Andre Johnson was better than Eric Decker. But you put any good receiver on an offense with terrible QBing, and you'll be looking at a 30% reduction in his production, almost without exception.

 

We can talk about the devaluation of WRs, but I don't really agree, especially when you're talking about a player who stays healthy and plays with the same QB for a decade. You can't expect anything like that from a RB anymore; many good young RBs never even make it to a second contract, much less a multi-year contract with a high value. 

 

People keep trying to use the Tom Brady example, and he's actually the poster child for a QB being undermined by his team not keeping his best receivers around him. He took a below market contract, then the Patriots traded Deion Branch over less than $500K/year. Brady was throwing to Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney in the 2006 AFCCG. Then they loaded up in 2007, Brady and Moss set records, and they go to the Super Bowl. 

 

It's not 'either keep Hilton or have a good defense.' Whether we keep Hilton or not, we have to draft better defensive players who can grow into stars. Hilton's contract wouldn't be preventing that. One has very little to do with the other.

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I think Dorsett is going to be better and have a better career than Brown, for sure. And most of the other defensive players still on the board, also, excepting a couple players that had character/injury issues, or didn't fit our defense. Best player available.

 

Either way, like I said, whether the Colts should pay Hilton market value or let him walk is a complicated issue. But it's not really a good idea to let really good players walk just because you think you're so good at finding replacements for them. Part of building a good roster and contending for a long time is retaining the players you drafted and developed, especially now that rookie contracts are only four years. Otherwise, you're trying to draft, develop and then replace good players every four years, and you never establish a core that grows together. That's okay with average to good players, but with difference makers -- which Hilton is -- you don't want to just shove them out the door. Especially not over a matter of maybe $2m/year.

 

I agree with the part put into bold...

 

But....

 

To play Devil's Advocate,  here's the argument against that....

 

Pay TYH $2 Mill more than you'd like/want and you may have to pay Anthony Castanzo 1-to 1.5 Mill more than you'd like....   and you may have to pay Fleener/Allen 1 mill per more than you'd like.

 

There can be a ripple effect.   These things don't happen in a vacuum.  (No that you suggested otherwise....)

 

I don't think we pay TYH anything he wants to make sure he doesn't walk out the door....   I think if we had to,  we'd franchise tag him for a year to see how things played out from there....    but I agree we'll likely have to pay him more than we really want to...

 

Hilton hiring Drew Rosenhaus practically guarantees that.....

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I agree with the part put into bold...

 

But....

 

To play Devil's Advocate,  here's the argument against that....

 

Pay TYH $2 Mill more than you'd like/want and you may have to pay Anthony Castanzo 1-to 1.5 Mill more than you'd like....   and you may have to pay Fleener/Allen 1 mill per more than you'd like.

 

There can be a ripple effect.   These things don't happen in a vacuum.  (No that you suggested otherwise....)

 

I don't think we pay TYH anything he wants to make sure he doesn't walk out the door....   I think if we had to,  we'd franchise tag him for a year to see how things played out from there....    but I agree we'll likely have to pay him more than we really want to...

 

Hilton hiring Drew Rosenhaus practically guarantees that.....

 

Hilton qualifies as a difference maker. AC, sure.

 

Fleener and Allen are good players, Allen at his best is above average, maybe better. Difference makers? Ehh... Allen hasn't been healthy in two years, and while Fleener has gotten better, he isn't a "must have" kind of player. And even if we say he/they are difference makers, because they don't play a premium position, we aren't look at a $2m/year premium to keep either of them because the salary range for TEs who aren't All Pro players isn't that wide.

 

And just to be clear, I'd rather keep both of them. But if I had to choose between keeping Hilton at a $2m/year premium along with one TE at a $1-1.5m/year premium, or letting Hilton walk and keeping both TEs, I'd keep Hilton. He's definitely more of a difference maker than either of them. So if I wanted Hilton for Jeremy Maclin money ($11m/year), but he wanted $12.5-13m/year, do I really want to let him walk? I can reserve that extra $2m/year for the last 2 years of the contract and build in a decision point for a legacy extension when he's nearly 30 and the cap is nearly $200m/year. 

 

I don't think we should just pay him whatever he wants either, and I hate that he went back to Rosenhaus, Lord of the Diva Receivers. But Rosenhaus didn't negotiate Mike Wallace's $12m/year, or the $14m/year for Dez/DT. He didn't negotiate Maclin's $11m/year. The current market has been set independent of Rosenhaus, which is sort of ironic. He is Frank Gore's agent, so the Colts can work with him. And he did Gronkowski's contract, two years prior to free agency, even though it was a "highest paid" deal and a no-brainer for the player. Anyways, point is he's not completely impossible, even though he will squeeze out as much as he possibly can.

 

I'm thinking it's going to take $12-13m/year to keep Hilton, probably five new years, $30m guaranteed at signing. It doesn't make sense to tag him, IMO, but it might come to that. We'll see...

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Above average with a QB like Manning, not so much with Geno Smith!  That was one of the points I was making.  Also the Jets really didn't have too many other good receivers to steal targets from Eric.

Not may would be good with geno smith....doesn't mean Decker is average.

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Not may would be good with geno smith....doesn't mean Decker is average.

I agree with your point of view, however please look at mine.  A great QB can make an average WR look better than he is!  No disrespect to Decker but if he was on some teams he would be only be an average #2.  He probably wouldn't get many reps if he was teams like the Colts or Redskins (given their current depth)!

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Matt Schaub wasn't terrible, until the very end. And Andre Johnson was better than Eric Decker. But you put any good receiver on an offense with terrible QBing, and you'll be looking at a 30% reduction in his production, almost without exception.

 

We can talk about the devaluation of WRs, but I don't really agree, especially when you're talking about a player who stays healthy and plays with the same QB for a decade. You can't expect anything like that from a RB anymore; many good young RBs never even make it to a second contract, much less a multi-year contract with a high value. 

 

People keep trying to use the Tom Brady example, and he's actually the poster child for a QB being undermined by his team not keeping his best receivers around him. He took a below market contract, then the Patriots traded Deion Branch over less than $500K/year. Brady was throwing to Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney in the 2006 AFCCG. Then they loaded up in 2007, Brady and Moss set records, and they go to the Super Bowl. 

 

It's not 'either keep Hilton or have a good defense.' Whether we keep Hilton or not, we have to draft better defensive players who can grow into stars. Hilton's contract wouldn't be preventing that. One has very little to do with the other.

I agree I didn't really say if we keep Hilton it's preventing us from getting a defensive stud, but a 12-13 M contract really puts the breaks on signing a potential big named FA in the offseason.  I agree with the strategy drafting then molding, but that also takes time!  The time is NOW, to start winning SB's for Andrew Luck though.  Sure there will be many more years for him to get some, but why not put the best team forward every given year.  That's not saying we would be not progressing if we keep TY, but personally I would like to see a top 5-10 Colts defense here soon!  I would place us at 15-22 ish currently, and teams don't make that big of jumps without making big changes (normally)! 

 

Chip Kelly took alot of criticisim this offseason, and I for one understand where he is coming from.  He made risky moves, but it also has a possible big payoff!  Only time will tell if it works in his favor.

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I think Dorsett is going to be better and have a better career than Brown, for sure. And most of the other defensive players still on the board, also, excepting a couple players that had character/injury issues, or didn't fit our defense. Best player available.

 

Either way, like I said, whether the Colts should pay Hilton market value or let him walk is a complicated issue. But it's not really a good idea to let really good players walk just because you think you're so good at finding replacements for them. Part of building a good roster and contending for a long time is retaining the players you drafted and developed, especially now that rookie contracts are only four years. Otherwise, you're trying to draft, develop and then replace good players every four years, and you never establish a core that grows together. That's okay with average to good players, but with difference makers -- which Hilton is -- you don't want to just shove them out the door. Especially not over a matter of maybe $2m/year.

That is an opinion!  And a situational one at that...  With Brown going to the Pats, who understand the importance of winning games in the trenches (playoffs) I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be great.  That goes for alot of players, the environment and coaches have a lot to do with a players success.  Same thing with Dorsett, he could flourish with the Colts and Luck (very likely) or he could get a career ending injury early on in his career (very unlikely), nonetheless anything is a possibility. 

 

I agree you don't want to ditch good young players, that is NOT my philosophy either!  Sometimes you do have to ship someone elsewhere to get something in return that will benefit you elsewhere.  The 2012 draft class is the core of our team, and it always will be (for the most part) until it's time to rebuild again.  That doesn't mean you have to keep everybody!  Again, I'm not suggesting TY has to be the casualty, personally I would rather keep Allen and get rid of Fleener and perhaps an overpaid LB and an injury prone OL.  This move would probably save us 2x as much rather than getting rid of TY, but the roster always needs to be groomed, for that matter. 

 

I think you were more focused on me saying TY, rather than my objective of getting better on defense.  The original statement was merely one option that the Colts could choose.  I do think it is ideal since we have great WR depth, and a similar player to TY, but that doesn't necessarilly mean it has to be him!

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I agree with your point of view, however please look at mine.  A great QB can make an average WR look better than he is!  No disrespect to Decker but if he was on some teams he would be only be an average #2.  He probably wouldn't get many reps if he was teams like the Colts or Redskins (given their current depth)!

He would be 3rd on the depth chart(And the depth chart does not take into account moving wr's around and different players being the 1st or 2nd option on plays) if he was a Colt. Outside of Hilton and Johnson Decker would be at worst #3

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That is an opinion!  And a situational one at that...  With Brown going to the Pats, who understand the importance of winning games in the trenches (playoffs) I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be great.  That goes for alot of players, the environment and coaches have a lot to do with a players success.  Same thing with Dorsett, he could flourish with the Colts and Luck (very likely) or he could get a career ending injury early on in his career (very unlikely), nonetheless anything is a possibility. 

 

I agree you don't want to ditch good young players, that is NOT my philosophy either!  Sometimes you do have to ship someone elsewhere to get something in return that will benefit you elsewhere.  The 2012 draft class is the core of our team, and it always will be (for the most part) until it's time to rebuild again.  That doesn't mean you have to keep everybody!  Again, I'm not suggesting TY has to be the casualty, personally I would rather keep Allen and get rid of Fleener and perhaps an overpaid LB and an injury prone OL.  This move would probably save us 2x as much rather than getting rid of TY, but the roster always needs to be groomed, for that matter. 

 

I think you were more focused on me saying TY, rather than my objective of getting better on defense.  The original statement was merely one option that the Colts could choose.  I do think it is ideal since we have great WR depth, and a similar player to TY, but that doesn't necessarilly mean it has to be him!

 

Of course it's an opinion. It's likely the opinion the Colts staff held, seeing as how they drafted Dorsett and not Brown. We can't tell the future, but scouting is a real thing, and through scouting, you form an opinion of players and how they relate to each other. My opinion is that Dorsett is better than Brown, and in fact, I haven't heard many opinions contrary. The only reason Brown ever comes up is because he plays a position that was of greater perceived need, not because he was a great prospect.

 

As for the rest, it goes back to what I said earlier. The Colts have to determine whether they think Hilton is valuable enough to them to warrant paying him what the market says he's worth. If not, let him walk, trade him, whatever. I'm fine with them making a determination on the basis of his value to the team, and in so doing, a lot of factors would be under consideration. 

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I agree I didn't really say if we keep Hilton it's preventing us from getting a defensive stud, but a 12-13 M contract really puts the breaks on signing a potential big named FA in the offseason.  I agree with the strategy drafting then molding, but that also takes time!  The time is NOW, to start winning SB's for Andrew Luck though.  Sure there will be many more years for him to get some, but why not put the best team forward every given year.  That's not saying we would be not progressing if we keep TY, but personally I would like to see a top 5-10 Colts defense here soon!  I would place us at 15-22 ish currently, and teams don't make that big of jumps without making big changes (normally)! 

 

Chip Kelly took alot of criticisim this offseason, and I for one understand where he is coming from.  He made risky moves, but it also has a possible big payoff!  Only time will tell if it works in his favor.

 

To the bolded, a) no it doesn't, as I showed in the thread I linked to earlier, and b) even if it did, you don't build your team through free agency if you intend to have long term success. Sometimes the right player is available and you're able to get him, and if we extend our entire 2012 class at market values, we'll still be able to dabble in free agency to a reasonable degree.

 

The type of moves the front office made this year reflected a desire to win now and continue to build a young, developing core. That's not signing high priced FAs to transform your team. We spent more than I would have liked on Trent Cole and AJ, but those are good players who make us better right now. I would have liked to add a player like Nick Fairley or Terrance Knighton, but I don't think either of those players are the kind of guys who transform your team, and they both had significant question marks related to work ethic and off field issues. 

 

I disagree with your ranking of the Colts defense, but we'll see how the coaching staff responds. They really got their butts kicked against Denver in the opener, Pittsburgh, and New England twice. Other than that, the defense held up very well. 

 

I have no problem with Chip Kelly's approach this offseason. But keep in mind that he let players walk that he didn't draft, not the players he drafted in his first year on the job. And also keep in mind that his team is in a different phase than ours. On top of that, Maclin had a significant injury a year ago, McCoy was traded for a really good player, and Trent Cole was scheduled to make $10m. Kelly also went out and spent $40m for Murray, and then overpaid for an above average cornerback, so he wasn't exactly the model of frugality.

 

Either way, I have no problem with a value-above-replacement approach when it comes to supporting players. I'm not arguing we should keep Hilton no matter what just because he's our guy. I know it might seem like that, but I assure you, it's not the case. What I disagree with is the idea that it doesn't matter who the receivers are because Luck is so great, or that we can't afford to keep Hilton and continue to improve the team.

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I agree I didn't really say if we keep Hilton it's preventing us from getting a defensive stud, but a 12-13 M contract really puts the breaks on signing a potential big named FA in the offseason.  I agree with the strategy drafting then molding, but that also takes time!  The time is NOW, to start winning SB's for Andrew Luck though.  Sure there will be many more years for him to get some, but why not put the best team forward every given year.  That's not saying we would be not progressing if we keep TY, but personally I would like to see a top 5-10 Colts defense here soon!  I would place us at 15-22 ish currently, and teams don't make that big of jumps without making big changes (normally)! 

 

Chip Kelly took alot of criticisim this offseason, and I for one understand where he is coming from.  He made risky moves, but it also has a possible big payoff!  Only time will tell if it works in his favor.

Thing is, a 'big name' player on another team may not be so big on a different team.  And vice-versa.  Scheme and supporting cast around them play into things as well.  Colts seem to be in  the mindset of grabbing players whom fit their scheme rather than big name players.  They believe the scheme is the key to making a defense great.  Guys like Langford and Anderson can come in and potentially become great because they fit the mold and have the work ethic along with the intelligence to get it done.  Aka Mike Adams, and Vonte Davis both came in as solid players, but not bonified stars.  The scheme helps them play to their potential.  

This is why buying into T.Y. does not hurt the Colts chances at improving defensively. -ofcourse this is my opinion of what i perceive is the Colts mindset.-

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I think Hilton's contract will be impacted more by Johnson, Moncrief, Dorsett, Carter and Luck than by Bryant and Thomas. TY ended last season not only as the Colts' best receiver, but as really their only good one, and Luck's only reliable target.

If Grigson's moves pay off (meaning Johnson stays healthy & productive, Moncrief takes a step forward, and Dorsett and Carter begin to live up to their potential), then the perception of TY will be much different at the end of this season than at the end of last season.

I know that's a lot of ifs, but hey, it's the off-season.

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I agree with your point of view, however please look at mine.  A great QB can make an average WR look better than he is!  No disrespect to Decker but if he was on some teams he would be only be an average #2.  He probably wouldn't get many reps if he was teams like the Colts or Redskins (given their current depth)!

I actually agree with your take on the value of receivers, I just disagree with your assessment of Decker.

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If Dorsett shines and Moncrief steps up his game, they'll let T.Y. walk. Wide receivers are a dime-a-dozen as the game has shifted to become more pass oriented and WR's are making HUGE money. Which means more and more football players are going to want to start being WR's overall, IMO. Look at all of the good WR's that have come into the league in just the last few years alone. Pretty much unprecedented. Look at how good Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon are, yet, they don't have jobs. Why? Because the next Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon are right around the corner. True story.

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I think Hilton's contract will be impacted more by Johnson, Moncrief, Dorsett, Carter and Luck than by Bryant and Thomas. TY ended last season not only as the Colts' best receiver, but as really their only good one, and Luck's only reliable target.

If Grigson's moves pay off (meaning Johnson stays healthy & productive, Moncrief takes a step forward, and Dorsett and Carter begin to live up to their potential), then the perception of TY will be much different at the end of this season than at the end of last season.

I know that's a lot of ifs, but hey, it's the off-season.

They might have a bigger factor on if Hilton comes back or not but they aren't going to set the market for Hilton because here's the thing unless the Colts franchise tag him Hilton's next contract is going to pay him market value and right now there is a pretty good chance he's going to be up there with those really big contracts.  If his agent doesn't push for that his agent isn't doing his job.  So while the Colts might go you know what we are going to pass because at the dollar figure it would take to bring you back we don't think your worth it because we have these other young guns some other team in the league will gladly pay him what he wants.  Look at Garcon for an example of this. 

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If Dorsett shines and Moncrief steps up his game, they'll let T.Y. walk. Wide receivers are a dime-a-dozen as the game has shifted to become more pass oriented and WR's are making HUGE money. Which means more and more football players are going to want to start being WR's overall, IMO. Look at all of the good WR's that have come into the league in just the last few years alone. Pretty much unprecedented. Look at how good Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon are, yet, they don't have jobs. Why? Because the next Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon are right around the corner. True story.

To the bold.  If those two shine, then that ends up making Hilton worth even more $$.  If Every receiver plays well and shows that they have to be taken accounted for, then T.Y. will have single coverage all year.  This means His numbesrs believe it or not will actually go UP.  NO single CB can cover Hilton.  This is why B.B. had his best corner on the #2 receiver and had his other corner cover Hilton with safety help over the top.  This cannot happen if both Dorsett and Moncieif live up to their potential, and A.J. just stays A.J. 

If this scenario plays out this way, I am a firm believer that If the Colts cannot contract Hilton, He will be tagged.  Just to keep that core of receivers for another year.

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Am I the only one that isn't worrying too much about re-signing TY Hilton? I think it gets done. Grigson did a pretty decent job re-signing players this season for a friendly contract. Mike Adams 2 year $4.5M, Darius Butler 2 year $5M, Joe Reitz 3 year $8M. Even Nate Irving's contract doesn't seem too bad when he could turn out to be our best inside linebacker. I guess we will wait and see but I have faith in Grigson that he sees the potential/advantage of having 2 speedsters on the field.

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He would be 3rd on the depth chart(And the depth chart does not take into account moving wr's around and different players being the 1st or 2nd option on plays) if he was a Colt. Outside of Hilton and Johnson Decker would be at worst #3

I don't think he would beat out Dorsett, personally!  Just wait until the end of the season and look at his play!  It looks like Moncrief is even being surpassed.  IMO it's because he is the 1st round pick!  Kind of trumps alot of things.  Look at Richardson's situation...  So I think he would be 4th maybe, and that's because guys like TY and Dorsett would be in front of him (smaller WR's).

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No way in hell is TY a "true" 1. He is a very good player that is NOT a Antonio Brown type. TY scores when he has clean sailing ahead of him. He is not a make it happen after the catch type. If he wants more than 8 m per I don't see Indy paying him.

If Moncrief and Dorsett play well he won't be back if he's expecting Dez money. No way Indy can afford it. AC is the priority. Indy will do the right thing.

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No way in hell is TY a "true" 1. He is a very good player that is NOT a Antonio Brown type. TY scores when he has clean sailing ahead of him. He is not a make it happen after the catch type. If he wants more than 8 m per I don't see Indy paying him.

If Moncrief and Dorsett play well he won't be back if he's expecting Dez money. No way Indy can afford it. AC is the priority. Indy will do the right thing.

Hey John, 

 

Nice to see you posting again. Maybe you have been posting before this. It's just the 1st I noticed in awhile. Anyway, I like reading your replies because you mean what you say, don't sugarcoat things, & you're usually right on the money 95% of the time. Welcome back man! Good to hear from ya. 

 

Yeah, you're right about Anthony Castonzo too. I'd like to keep TY but like you say it will be difficult to keep him if he demands top dollar money. 

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No way in hell is TY a "true" 1. He is a very good player that is NOT a Antonio Brown type. TY scores when he has clean sailing ahead of him. He is not a make it happen after the catch type. If he wants more than 8 m per I don't see Indy paying him.

...

You are absolutely right! 

Colts fans can't see it because TY plays for us and we have an emotional attachment to him and the team.

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If Dorsett shines and Moncrief steps up his game, they'll let T.Y. walk. Wide receivers are a dime-a-dozen...

Dorsett's lack of height still bothers me a little bit, but then again Hakeem Nicks was over 6 ft. with an enormous wingspan & that never really panned out for INDY either. So, being vertically challenged may not be a liability for Philip. I just want him to become the Colts version of Devin Hester. 

 

Guys that can truly stretch the field & take the top off a defense are not "a dime a dozen" though LHOC. Moncrief is sold though. Not exceptional, but darn good with the arrow definitely pointing up. 

 

I don't blame WRs going for the big pay day, but when you have a QB with HOF clutchness, you don't leave that unless your either going to a made man like Eli Manning or another rising QB star in David Carr. JMO.  

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You are absolutely right! 

Colts fans can't see it because TY plays for us and we have an emotional attachment to him and the team.

No, that's not it at all...TY has been tremendously productive & he was masterfully trained under the wing of Reggie Wayne. You just can't reboot the lessons Reggie taught his protege especially when #87 is now gone. 

 

Yes, I'm sure Reggie worked with all the WRs in the film room that's true, but typically you reserve your best tricks of the trade for your best students meaning smartest & most athletically gifted. Emotion is secondary here. This boils down to what the master [Wayne] taught his apprentice [Hilton] & that those 1 on 1 secrets of the trade sessions cannot always be replicated like an assembly line with the same results. 

 

I agree don't let any player mortgage your team's future & hamstring you financially for years jeopardizing the talent around Luck, but please don't make a blanket statement like we're all star struck & too emotional to be objective thank you. That's beyond ridiculous. 

 

The real Question is this: How much is it worth to keep those lessons in house, & if TY leaves, do we have the WR veteran mentor in place to survive bumps in the road, maintain confidence at WR, & still grind out games & win in November & December? 

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Realistically, I know TY Hilton will probably be gone just like we lost Pierre Garcon to the Redskins back in the day. I realize that you can't pay every athlete. I just take issue with the notion that fans can't step back & go yeah TY's gone after this season. I'm not mad at you CanuckColt & I get where you're coming from, but just like I knew Manning was gone, just give me time to grieve/process the loss dude. That's all I ask. 

 

At a funeral, nobody goes "Finally, we lowered the colossal jerk into the ground...Let's all go get some chow now. I'm starving." We might think it sometimes, but we usually keep those thoughts to ourselves privately. Just kidding! Translation: We all need time to accept the inevitable. We just need time to mull it over & get used to the idea. 

 

No hard feelings man. We're cool. 

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Hey SW1....

I agree and would love to keep TY but he is simply not a Megatron, Dez, AJG, Brown, or JJ. TY can and has been completely taken out of games. Big time WR's don't let that happen. They get open or simplymake something out of nothing. Thats just not TY. He is very good but I have a feeling some team is going to make him an offer he can't refuse and grossly overpay for him.

We will see how it un folds. This O is going to be really good.

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I agree with the part put into bold...

 

But....

 

To play Devil's Advocate,  here's the argument against that....

 

Pay TYH $2 Mill more than you'd like/want and you may have to pay Anthony Castanzo 1-to 1.5 Mill more than you'd like....   and you may have to pay Fleener/Allen 1 mill per more than you'd like.

 

There can be a ripple effect.   These things don't happen in a vacuum.  (No that you suggested otherwise....)

 

I don't think we pay TYH anything he wants to make sure he doesn't walk out the door....   I think if we had to,  we'd franchise tag him for a year to see how things played out from there....    but I agree we'll likely have to pay him more than we really want to...

 

Hilton hiring Drew Rosenhaus practically guarantees that.....

Bingo! TY's agent is the lynch pin factor since Drew always pursues the most benjamins  he can get for his clients. Way to play devil's advocate too NCF. I respect when forum members do that because it takes guts to do that & scrutinize any issue from more than 1 angle. The best journalists always do that.

 

That's why I know you were a good one: You aren't afraid to go where angels  [politically correct/safe reporters] fear to tread. Keep it up. I do love my rock the boat bloggers on here like you, JD, BOTT, & others...

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Hey SW1....

I agree and would love to keep TY but he is simply not a Megatron, Dez, AJG, Brown, or JJ. TY can and has been completely taken out of games. Big time WR's don't let that happen. They get open or simplymake something out of nothing. Thats just not TY. He is very good but I have a feeling some team is going to make him an offer he can't refuse and grossly overpay for him.

We will see how it un folds. This O is going to be really good.

Exactly JD, it would be a huge mistake to overpay Hilton even though he is a sentimental favorite of mine, business is business & we have to be fiscally smart next year. Plus, if we reach the Lombardi Promiseland & cross the finishline, TY's gone to the highest bidder anyway. 

 

Don't toy with me John [What I bolded.] My heart cannot accept any thing less brother.  haha I respect your intuition/judgement here though. I do. You know your football man, especially what it really takes to win Championships: Winning in the trenches on both lines. 

 

Also, off topic I know, but I need to say you were right when a few years ago you posed the hypothetical question of what you would be willing to give up for Cleveland's Joe Thomas. It's funny because you can have all the best TE's & WRs in the league but if Luck's protection isn't reliable it doesn't mean much. Plus, like Pagano said "either I fix the line [pronto] or somebody else will be fixing it. Translation: You were right when you pinpointed our real weakness about 3 years ago: a worthless pocket for luck, no pass rush, & no ability to stuff the run. 

 

You deserve credit for that & you were among the 1st to call Pagano out on it. 

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If Dorsett shines and Moncrief steps up his game, they'll let T.Y. walk. Wide receivers are a dime-a-dozen as the game has shifted to become more pass oriented and WR's are making HUGE money. Which means more and more football players are going to want to start being WR's overall, IMO. Look at all of the good WR's that have come into the league in just the last few years alone. Pretty much unprecedented. Look at how good Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon are, yet, they don't have jobs. Why? Because the next Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon are right around the corner. True story.

 

And having said that, Ohio State QB Braxton Miller is switching to WR. lol

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaaf-dr-saturday/ohio-state-s-braxton-miller-says-he-s-moving-from-qb-to-wr-015920341.html

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No way in hell is TY a "true" 1. He is a very good player that is NOT a Antonio Brown type. TY scores when he has clean sailing ahead of him. He is not a make it happen after the catch type. If he wants more than 8 m per I don't see Indy paying him.

If Moncrief and Dorsett play well he won't be back if he's expecting Dez money. No way Indy can afford it. AC is the priority. Indy will do the right thing.

He is probably going to be offered 2-3 mill more then that, He has also only had 70 yards receiving or less 7 times last season(Dez Bryant had the same), He was also tied for 4th in the NFL at WR in 100 yard receiving games........Dudes going to get paid

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No way in hell is TY a "true" 1. He is a very good player that is NOT a Antonio Brown type. TY scores when he has clean sailing ahead of him. He is not a make it happen after the catch type. If he wants more than 8 m per I don't see Indy paying him.

If Moncrief and Dorsett play well he won't be back if he's expecting Dez money. No way Indy can afford it. AC is the priority. Indy will do the right thing.

 

John.....    first welcome back.....    you've been missed....

 

Second,  I agree that TYH is not a true #1....    but I do think he's much better than a typical #2,  so he's close to a 1.

 

Third....   while I'm not confident we keep Hilton (because of Rosenhaus)  I am confident that we will offer him more than 8 mill per year.    In fact,  likely much more.   And that was set in place a year ago.

 

When the Packers signed Randall Cobb a year ago for 4/40,  Hilton became a 10 Mill a year WR.    They're roughly the same size with similar ability...   though there's a good case that Hilton is even better.

 

And then,  this past off-season,  when the Chiefs signed Jeremy Maclin to 5/55,  TYH moved up to being at least an 11 mill per year WR.   

 

The BIG question is.....   how much more?

 

With Bryant/Thomas coming in at 14 Mil per,  that leaves a 3 Mil a year window.   So, where does Rosenhaus slot Hilton?    Because also next off-season (or maybe even sooner)  the Bengals have to sign AJ Green and the Falcons have to sign Julio Jones.   They're likely in the range of 13 Mill per.     Again,  where does Rosenhaus put Hilton?

 

Make no mistake, Hilton is going to get his money.   The questions are how much and from which team?   I think we'll offer at least 12 mil per....    but I'm not sure we'll offer much more than that...

 

And we might even put the franchise tag on him for one year.   This past off-season the tag was 12.8 for a WR.   Next year, it might be 13.    I think the Colts would do that for one year.   But would it give Hilton incentive to make a multi-year deal?   I'm not sure?

 

But the kid is going to get paid....   I just don't see the Colts letting him walk out the door for nothing.   That's why I think we'll use the tag if need be....

 

Just some food for thought....   I hope I didn't make you sick with this post....   Sorry if I did....       :peek:

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No way in hell is TY a "true" 1. He is a very good player that is NOT a Antonio Brown type. TY scores when he has clean sailing ahead of him. He is not a make it happen after the catch type. If he wants more than 8 m per I don't see Indy paying him.

If Moncrief and Dorsett play well he won't be back if he's expecting Dez money. No way Indy can afford it. AC is the priority. Indy will do the right thing.

I honestly firmly believe T.Y. is worth more than 8 mil.  like i said earlier 12-12.5 is my estimation.  The question is this:  Does the brass believe they can pay him that $$ and still keep one of the TE's, AC, and Luck?  If no, then perhaps a tag, or...we may have to let him go.  But i really see a tag atleast for a year.  Just to keep him around and not have to eat Money that year to sign the other guys we need.  

I fully agree we should not spoil the main course because we have an entree that fills too much of the plate.

 

-but man it would be nice to have all we want, and eat it too-

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So much depends on how much Luck will demand. And THEN AC....... these 2 are priorities.

I just don't see it ... I hope they keep him but like I said earlier. If Moncrief and Dorset play well TY will be very expendable. Who kno'sws? I just know overpaying WR's is not a good thing.

Oh and Gavin. How many times did Indy throw the ball last year vs Dallas? Just saying

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