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How the Bryant/Thomas contracts might impact TY Hilton's....


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I know I will probably take some criticism for this, but I don't really care!  I like TY, and he does deserve a good contract, but the way all of this is shaping up, I would rather see him walk (I very rarely want to see great players go), if he is going to ask for anything over 9.5!  Not that he isn't worth that, but I for one am extremely tired of seeing our OL and front 7 on defense get pounded by more athletic and powerful big men!  A football team needs balance, in which we really haven't ever seen from the Colts.  We've NEVER had a top 5 offense AND defense!  We have tried this model before with having a prolific offense, where we try to run teams out of the stadium, and it does work to some extent, but not in the playoffs!  Teams buckle down, and it gets dirty!  We have never had a defense that can line up to another prolific offense and shut them down, or at least contain them.  At that point it is always a shootout!

 

Many of you may wonder, what does this rant have to do with anything about TY.  Well, if you pay Luck, Costanzo, Fleener/Allen, among other players in the future, this team doesn't have the cap money to pay an elite WR top$.  IMHO, if a team has a top 5 QB, they don't NEED a top5 WR!  (Brady, P. Manning, Brees, Rodgers)  Yes, all of these guys have had a top 5 WR, but mostly because the great QB made them look that good!  On the other hand a top 5-10 QB can put up great numbers with a top 5 WR, or solid overall WR corp (Stafford, Roethlisberger, E. Manning, P. Rivers)!  Notice the difference of the makeup of these teams also??  Most of these teams aren't only centered around the passing game, but also have a good run game and a good to great defense!  IMO, this model is a no brainer with a QB like Luck!  Manning, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers did it for years turning mediocre WR's into pro bowl caliber numbers!  Andrew can and will do it also (if he needs to)! 

 

Just imagine, instead of paying TY top$, and settling with Moncrief and Dorsett as the future (with other role players).  Then adding a JJ Watt, or Juston Houston, type player that will cause opposing QB's duress, force turnovers, or limit opposing offenses to moving the football on us like were an inferior amature team.  Don't you think we would still score about the same?  The defense wouldn't be the bend but don't break, rather than being go get that football back for Luck and company to shove it down their throats again.  Late in the games our defense wouldn't be worn out for being gashed all game allowing 100 yard rushers week in and week out, or letting a decent or heaven forbid a great QB throwing on us all day because we cannot generate a pass rush!

 

This is the model that the majority of the previous decade of SB winners have had.  It is all very clear to me, you must have balance, and not put all of your eggs in one basket!  I don't know why the team continues to head in this direction.  The big name free agents they got this year were Gore and Johnson (offensive threats).  Sure they also got Trent Cole, but is he a show stopper?  Anyway I would love to hear some input on the matter, and I do realize this should be in a different thread, but too little too late now lol 

 

A few issues with the post:

 

1) No one is saying TY is a top 5 WR. He is a solid, probably top 15 WR. All the best QBs in the league, except Wilson, have one (or TE). PM always has had two or more. I think it is a myth to say the QB makes the WR or TE. They both need each other to be truly dominant. The Seahawks are an outlier because of the way their offense centers around Lynch and Wilson scrambling. Even so, they tried adding Harvin to have a #1 and wasted a ton of $ and picks to do so, telling us how important they viewed having a #1 WR. The addition of Graham is a similar attempt.

 

2) If the Colts let TY walk, they are going to be faced with the same issue with Moncrief and Dorsett if they develop into good players. A team always has to pay its good players at some point.

 

3) The Watts and Houstons of the world never hit the FA market. Suh is the exception. Grigson needs to draft young talent on defense, not sign high priced FAs. 

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This thread is a bit crazy

 

TY is a top 10, maybe top 5 talent at the WR spot.......

 

 

The hometown "discount" doesn't apply in most cases for people coming off rookie contracts

 

If someone is later in their career, have pocketed some big money, and are established, they may want to stay in the same city

and will take a little less

 

TY is a rookie contract.... he will try to get his market value..... this isnt 9 mil.... this isnt 10 mil....... its 11-13M per year

 

The Luck factor is a positive, but his agent didn't start this gig yesterday.

 

TY produced like Dez....look at the numbers,,,,..  he will want similar salary (Wouldnt you?)

 

 

TY isnt a "bad" guy for wanting to get paid like similar players in the NFL

 

He is one really bad injury on a single play from being out of the league..........

 

The "hometown discount"..... just doesnt cover that........

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This thread is a bit crazy

 

 

 

The hometown "discount" doesn't apply in most cases for people coming off rookie contracts

 

If someone is later in their career, have pocketed some big money, and are established, they may want to stay in the same city

and will take a little less

 

TY is a rookie contract.... he will try to get his market value..... this isnt 9 mil.... this isnt 10 mil....... its 11-13M per year

 

The Luck factor is a positive, but his agent didn't start this gig yesterday.

 

TY produced like Dez....look at the numbers,,,,..  he will want similar salary (Wouldnt you?)

 

 

TY isnt a "bad" guy for wanting to get paid like similar players in the NFL

 

He is one really bad injury on a single play from being out of the league..........

 

The "hometown discount"..... dont cover that........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dez and TY had very similar production

Few things just to build on this.

 

1.  I thought the whole "the QB made the WR" had been disproven when people used to say that about Marvin and Reggie in regards to Peyton.  Especially, Reggie, people used to say it wasn't just Manning who made Reggie look good it was also Marvin.  It took Reggie putting up star numbers without Marvin in the offense anymore and with Luck to get people to lay off that argument.  Here's the thing, good QBs and good WRs go hand-and-hand and make each other look good.  If all it took was Andrew Luck to make WRs stars guys like DHB, Avery, and Nicks would have been stars.  Heck even guys like Brazil and Rodgers would have been stars.  The truth is as good as Luck is and while he can make others look better he can't take just anyone and make them put up numbers like Hilton is doing.  No QB can. 

 

2.  I've always kinda laughed at the idea of a hometown discount for guys coming off their rookie contracts for several reasons.  For starters I can see how that might work for a guy who has spent his whole pro career in a city and is coming towards the end and he just wants to finish his career in a city.  That's not the case with T.Y.  He's coming up on the contact that is going to pay him the bulk of his money he's going to make playing pro-football.  You are out of your mind if you think he's going to take less on that deal just so he can stay in Indy.  Second, this isn't his hometown.  He spent as much time where he played college football as he has in Indy at this point.  This is the city where he got drafted to, not his hometown.  Can it develop into his hometown one day?  For sure, however that's something that takes more than four years on a rookie contract.  Lastly, it's really easy for us to sit here and say a guy should take less than his market value because it's good for the team because our priority is what's best for the team.  Hilton's isn't.  His, as is yours when you take a job, is what's best for him and his family, not what's best for the company. 

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Respectfully, we disagree.

 

If you're under the impression that anyone can catch passes from Luck and the Colts will be fine,  then I disagree.

 

We need playmakers.    The league is built on having playmakers.    The more the better...

 

And since we just drafted/signed Andre Johnson, Phillip Dorsett and Donte Moncrief in the last 15 months,  it looks like the front office doesn't agree with you either.

 

I'm not saying we pay Hilton anything his agent asks for.....   but TY Hilton is a valuable piece that the Colts would like to bring back....     I hope we keep him.

I think TY is replacable. Not that you draft or just bring anyone in and they will reproduce the exact same numbers etc but we see it every year in the NFL. D Jackson....how will Chip replace that...he can't...cry cry cry...Macklin steps in and does just that....then Chip lets him go and brings in rookies. How can we replace Reggie Wayne....we bring in AJ. How will Denver replace Decker...boom we have Sanders. Manning regularly utilized guys like Garcon, Collie, Stokely, heck even White to make due and still kept the offense running at a high clip. Can't say how many times Brady replaced mediocre receivers after mediocre receivers and that offense is still a top 10 offense. If anything these recent drafts show you is that wr talent is EXTREMELY stacked...and relatively cheap for 4 or 5 years and then replace them with a cheaper version. There are only a handful of extreme difference makers out there and the rest if you run a good system and have a GREAT qb you can reload essentially in a year or two of rookie experience these guys now are ready to produce at a high level. WRs seem to be deep in the draft and able to contribute very quickly. I see the big contracts only at the top. 

 

Now...is TY at the top...he is certainly very close...so thats the trade off in if we do it....but if Dorsett and Moncrief step up....it is much much easier to continue to look to the draft for more value for the money now that the pay scale helps with that.

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A few issues with the post:

 

1) No one is saying TY is a top 5 WR. He is a solid, probably top 15 WR. All the best QBs in the league, except Wilson, have one (or TE). PM always has had two or more. I think it is a myth to say the QB makes the WR or TE. They both need each other to be truly dominant. The Seahawks are an outlier because of the way their offense centers around Lynch and Wilson scrambling. Even so, they tried adding Harvin to have a #1 and wasted a ton of $ and picks to do so, telling us how important they viewed having a #1 WR. The addition of Graham is a similar attempt.

 

2) If the Colts let TY walk, they are going to be faced with the same issue with Moncrief and Dorsett if they develop into good players. A team always has to pay its good players at some point.

 

3) The Watts and Houstons of the world never hit the FA market. Suh is the exception. Grigson needs to draft young talent on defense, not sign high priced FAs. 

1.  I know he probably isn't in the top 5 but I would say top 10 with Luck being the QB!  Wilson isn't a great QB.  He is good because they have a very great overall team that is well balanced, which continues to prove my point.  Percy Harvin isn't a top tier WR either, he is a guy that is explosive and can make a big play like Pierre Garcon and Desean Jackson.

 

2.  Youre exactly right!  It would be next man up at that point.  Eric Decker, Austin Collie, Brandon Stokeley among others were average WR's that PM made look good.  Same thing with Welker, Edelman, Lafell, among others were also average and Brady turned them into something good.  When these receivers didn't have a great QB they didn't do so hot!  The proof is in the pudding!  These are only 2 examples of many other QB's that has done the same. 

 

3.  You're absolutely correct when you mentioned rare talent is hard to come by.  That is why you must form a program around getting them (ie trading for future draft picks, having success so when the rare FA does become available Indy looks like a good destination, in which they clearly have done).  Patriots are always preparing for the future, and that is why they have been

perennial contenders.  You also must be good at managing the cap, in which they are as well!  I think the Colts front office is pretty good at this also though.  Another thing that is on Colts side, Grigson, is a great closer!  On top of Indy being an attractive hot spot for free agents, they usually don't leave town without a contract to sign!

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Posted · Hidden by Nadine, July 18, 2015 - name calling
Hidden by Nadine, July 18, 2015 - name calling

You're clearly very young or a recent Colts fan. You do realize Marvin was drafted in 96' and a had a couple of decent seasons with Harbaugh. The offensive changes with Manning coming on helped him every bit as much as bringing on Manning did. Harrison would have been fine no matter where he played.

 

You're clearly a delusional blue kool-aid drinker.

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Posted · Hidden by Nadine, July 18, 2015 - name calling
Hidden by Nadine, July 18, 2015 - name calling

You're clearly a delusional blue kool-aid drinker.

No need to be offended girlscout.. It was just obvious that you were completely incompetent to what you were talking about.

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NOTE:   sorry,  but there's tons of math in this post.  No way around that.   I've tried to keep it as simple as can be (especially for me!)

 

 

So.....    these are the terms for the deals being reported today....

 

-- Bryant 5/70 with 45 guaranteed and 20 of that in a signing bonus.

 

-- Thomas 5/70 with 43.5 guaranteed and 20 of that in a signing bonus.

 

Both player agree to lesser averages than Calvin Johnson, whose deal averages 15m (8/120)

 

But.....

 

Both players get a much higher percentage of guaranteed money than CJ did.   Megatron got 43.5 guaranteed out of 120.

 

Thomas gets the same 43.5 guaranteed out of 70 and Bryant gets 45 out of 70.  

 

Megatron's guaranteed money is roughly 36%

 

Bryants is roughly 64% and Thomas' is roughly 62%.     The percentage guaranteed is eye-popping!

 

A guess on Hilton's deal.....

 

5/60 with 36 guaranteed and 16 of that in a signing bonus.

 

At least there is now something of a framework where the Colts and Rosenhaus can negotiate.

 

The question becomes.....   does TYH see himself as the equal of Bryant and Thomas?    Or is he willing to slot in behind those two and take less?    And if he is,  HOW MUCH LESS?!?

 

I like TY a lot -- but don't think he should be getting Dez Bryant type of money -- Dez is a true #1 -- I don't think TY has proven he is a true #1 quite yet.  He may do that this year, but if Dorsett, Moncrief and Carter play well I think TY will have to go elsewhere to ask for Dez money (and think that the team that gives it to him will regret it).

 

Two other WR's will factor into the TYH math....

 

AJ Green and Julio Jones.     Both are playing this year on the 5th year of their rookie deals.

 

Those two could slot in at 13M per and then perhaps TYH at 12 per...

 

Antonio Brown's deal is going to get complicated.    He got a new deal a year or two back and reportedly the Steelers are trying to do right by him with a re-adjust with multiple years left on the deal.    But those are always tricky....   far easier said than done...

I think the 3rd factor is Phillip Dorsett -- if Dorsett comes out and plays to his potential, he may make TY expendable.

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I like TY a lot -- but don't think he should be getting Dez Bryant type of money -- Dez is a true #1 -- I don't think TY has proven he is a true #1 quite yet.  He may do that this year, but if Dorsett, Moncrief and Carter play well I think TY will have to go elsewhere to ask for Dez money (and think that the team that gives it to him will regret it).

 

I think the 3rd factor is Phillip Dorsett -- if Dorsett comes out and plays to his potential, he may make TY expendable.

2 things though:

 

1.Carter still has to win that 5th WR spot

2.Dorsett is more then likely going to be spending most of his snaps on special teams this year and as the Colts 4th wr, I expect he sees some snaps at WR but I don't see it being alot

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I'd have Hilton somewhere between Maclin and Dez Brynant. I think 12 million a year is more than enough for a guy like TY. He's good, but he's no Bryant or Thomas. I think the "Guaranteed" money is what's going to be the difference maker in him staying or going.

 

I really hope he stays. I love the kid.

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1.  I know he probably isn't in the top 5 but I would say top 10 with Luck being the QB!  Wilson isn't a great QB.  He is good because they have a very great overall team that is well balanced, which continues to prove my point.  Percy Harvin isn't a top tier WR either, he is a guy that is explosive and can make a big play like Pierre Garcon and Desean Jackson.

 

2.  Youre exactly right!  It would be next man up at that point.  Eric Decker, Austin Collie, Brandon Stokeley among others were average WR's that PM made look good.  Same thing with Welker, Edelman, Lafell, among others were also average and Brady turned them into something good.  When these receivers didn't have a great QB they didn't do so hot!  The proof is in the pudding!  These are only 2 examples of many other QB's that has done the same. 

 

3.  You're absolutely correct when you mentioned rare talent is hard to come by.  That is why you must form a program around getting them (ie trading for future draft picks, having success so when the rare FA does become available Indy looks like a good destination, in which they clearly have done).  Patriots are always preparing for the future, and that is why they have been

perennial contenders.  You also must be good at managing the cap, in which they are as well!  I think the Colts front office is pretty good at this also though.  Another thing that is on Colts side, Grigson, is a great closer!  On top of Indy being an attractive hot spot for free agents, they usually don't leave town without a contract to sign!

 

1. Actually, Seattle has a really good defense, a pretty crappy offensive line, and two playmakers in Wilson and Lynch (now add Graham). They have their warts too. They thought Harvin was a #1 WR--that's my point...they acquired and payed him like he was a #1. So, obviously, they wanted to get better on offensive by adding a #1 WR. They also, obviously, completely missed on Harvin, but their intent was clear: get better on offense by adding a #1 WR.

 

2. You named all the average ones but are neglecting the fact that he always had at least two stud WR/TE. 

 

3. You completely lost me here. In no way, shape, or form, should the Colts trade draft picks to get a Watt or Houston. They should utilize their draft picks to draft defensive playmakers. 

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Going with your theory that Hilton is a product of Luck...Then why did DHB suck while here? I mean he also played with Luck

You take the theory to the point of absurdity. DHB barely qualifies as a receiver. A team needs good, solid receivers.......but not elite/very expensive ones.

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1.  I know he probably isn't in the top 5 but I would say top 10 with Luck being the QB!  Wilson isn't a great QB.  He is good because they have a very great overall team that is well balanced, which continues to prove my point.  Percy Harvin isn't a top tier WR either, he is a guy that is explosive and can make a big play like Pierre Garcon and Desean Jackson.

 

2.  Youre exactly right!  It would be next man up at that point.  Eric Decker, Austin Collie, Brandon Stokeley among others were average WR's that PM made look good.  Same thing with Welker, Edelman, Lafell, among others were also average and Brady turned them into something good.  When these receivers didn't have a great QB they didn't do so hot!  The proof is in the pudding!  These are only 2 examples of many other QB's that has done the same. 

 

3.  You're absolutely correct when you mentioned rare talent is hard to come by.  That is why you must form a program around getting them (ie trading for future draft picks, having success so when the rare FA does become available Indy looks like a good destination, in which they clearly have done).  Patriots are always preparing for the future, and that is why they have been

perennial contenders.  You also must be good at managing the cap, in which they are as well!  I think the Colts front office is pretty good at this also though.  Another thing that is on Colts side, Grigson, is a great closer!  On top of Indy being an attractive hot spot for free agents, they usually don't leave town without a contract to sign!

Eric Decker is above average

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You're clearly a delusional blue kool-aid drinker.

As for Harrison being not great....He caught ALOT of nearly impossible catches from some very poor throws from Manning. Hands were amazing, and his route running was superb.  And we have not even covered the fact that he was the greatest sideline receiver ever.  He turned the getting both feet in bounds on a catch an art form.

Seriously...go to youtube and type "marvin harrison highlights."  so many of those catches ,..just a mediocre receiver could not do,...even if they were dreaming.  Harrison is considered by many as one of the greatest possession receivers in history.

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 He is a product of Andrew Luck and the Colts know that. 

i dont buy that.  i think he could have put up numbers on any decent team.  At least any team with a QB good enough to have 1000 yard receivers.

 

i agree that there is a real chance that he might leave, but that is mostly dependant on what kind of crazy offers he gets.

i think hes a top 10 WR but not top 5, and his contract should reflect that.

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As for Harrison being not great....He caught ALOT of nearly impossible catches from some very poor throws from Manning. Hands were amazing, and his route running was superb.  And we have not even covered the fact that he was the greatest sideline receiver ever.  He turned the getting both feet in bounds on a catch an art form.

Seriously...go to youtube and type "marvin harrison highlights."  so many of those catches ,..just a mediocre receiver could not do,...even if they were dreaming.  Harrison is considered by many as one of the greatest possession receivers in history.

there was a time you could make a legit argument that Marvin was the second best WR in NFL history. I think people have forgotten just how great Marvin was which is too bad. I like Hilton and love Reggie but neither of them was Marvin in his prime.
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there was a time you could make a legit argument that Marvin was the second best WR in NFL history. I think people have forgotten just how great Marvin was which is too bad. I like Hilton and love Reggie but neither of them was Marvin in his prime.

It would be a poor argument

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TY will get tagged. Bank on it. That gives Donte and Phillip 2 years respectively to develop along with possibly Carter. 2 years from now TY will walk and Johnson will be done. Colts are hoping for 2 year superbowl window. I'd be shocked if Colts gave Hilton anywhere near what he is gonna want

depends on what happens with Castonzo. Frankly I think the Colts need him more than TY and they clearly aren't as deep on the line as they are at WR.
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Any new TY contract needs to allow room for building a championship-capable defense. I'd let him walk if he wants some monster contract.

Considering the colts lack of young stars on D and the short nature of NFL contracts I don't see Hilton's contract as a major hindrance to building the defense.

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Harrison and Wayne were good, but they were a product of Manning.  If Marvin Harrison had played for Cleveland he would have been out of the league by 2000.  

Marvin was the best WR in the league for the majority of his career.  There are a couple of seasons where Randy Moss or Larry Fitzgerald may have won that argument and obviously Marvin wasn't fully healthy in his last 2 seasons due to knee injury.  Marvin should have been a first ballot HOFer -- I think off-field issues later in his career/post-career really hindered him there.  Marvin is arguably the greatest route-runner of all time and his hands are in that discussion as well.  Sure, playing with Peyton helped, but he was a complete stud and would have lasted for a long time in the league regardless of where he played.  I'll post some links in comments below.

 

 

TY will get tagged. Bank on it. That gives Donte and Phillip 2 years respectively to develop along with possibly Carter. 2 years from now TY will walk and Johnson will be done. Colts are hoping for 2 year superbowl window. I'd be shocked if Colts gave Hilton anywhere near what he is gonna want

 

They are not hoping for a 2 year super bowl window.  We have Andrew Luck, the best young QB in football (and may be just a year or 2 away from surpassing Rodgers, Brady, and Manning), and we will want to be competitive for his whole career.  This has been echoed by Irsay numerous times.

 

2 things though:

 

1.Carter still has to win that 5th WR spot

2.Dorsett is more then likely going to be spending most of his snaps on special teams this year and as the Colts 4th wr, I expect he sees some snaps at WR but I don't see it being alot

 

1. You are correct on Carter.

2. I am interested to see how this plays out.  I think Dorsett has a very good shot at beating Moncrief for the 3rd spot, though I don't think either will truly be a 3/4 WR as they have very different sizes and skill sets -- they will probably be used at WR as dictated by the situation we're in.  I think we are the only team in the NFL with 3 WRs who run 4.3 (TY, Moncrief, Dorsett) -- Moncrief I believe recently said they have a package called the Indy 500 which will utilize the speed of all 3.  I fully expect Dorsett to have valuable contributions as a WR this season.

 

As for Harrison being not great....He caught ALOT of nearly impossible catches from some very poor throws from Manning. Hands were amazing, and his route running was superb.  And we have not even covered the fact that he was the greatest sideline receiver ever.  He turned the getting both feet in bounds on a catch an art form.

Seriously...go to youtube and type "marvin harrison highlights."  so many of those catches ,..just a mediocre receiver could not do,...even if they were dreaming.  Harrison is considered by many as one of the greatest possession receivers in history.

 

Yes -- Harrison was the greatest WR of his generation.  Nobody else was close.  Moss may have had a couple years where he was scaring the daylights out of defenses, but he was nowhere near as consistent as Marvin.  Marvin never took a play off, and was the quietest star WR of the 'me me me' generation that he played with (Keyshawn Johnson - "Give Me the Damn Ball", Terrell Owens, Chad OchoCinco, Randy Moss, etc.... none of these guys came close to producing like Marvin and all were primadonnas).  Marvin quietly went about his business, practiced his tail off, and showed up to play every Sunday.  Marvin was also a great leader when he needed to be --

-- one of my all time favorite Marvin moments was on Nov. 5, 2006 -- we were big rivals with New England and everyone said Indy was the softer of the two teams and that we weren't tough or hardened enough to beat the Pats -- in 3 point game in the 3rd quarter Marvin made a tremendous catch then got up and spiked the ball into Mike Vrabel's chest and jawed back and forth with Vrabel for a bit after that -- we went on to win that game and later that year, we won the Super Bowl.  I honestly think that play right there was one of the biggest plays of the season, Marvin put it right to the Patriots and let them know we've got some fire in Indy and we're not backing down anymore -- to me, that play carried over to the rest of our team and all the sudden everyone was a little tougher and meaner. 

 

It would be a poor argument

 

Not even close to a poor argument.  Charles Tillman and Champ Bailey, 2 of the best CBs in the league throughout a good chunk of Marvin's tenure, both say Marvin is the best they ever played against.  http://www.stampedeblue.com/2014/10/16/6988669/charles-tillman-says-best-offensive-player-hes-ever-faced-is-marvin In this interview Tillman was asked who the hardest to cover was, and he specifically said not Calvin Johnson or Randy Moss -- "Marvin Harrison.  He was unstoppable. The best I ever played against."   In a different interview, Champ Bailey gives some credit to Peyton but he said is his (Hall of Fame) career, nobody ever gave him more trouble than Marvin.

 

Look up Marvin on Wikipedia -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Harrison -- all of those stats are factual.  Look at his credentials.  They are ridiculous.

 

Prior to his injury Marvin was averaging 93 receptions a season (one of these seasons he only played 12 games with rookie Peyton Manning and one of the seasons, 2002, when he was our primary weapon and the focus of other team's secondaries, Marvin pulled in an NFL record 143 receptions while facing double and triple teams every single game).  This was far more than any other WR ever -- for comparison if you look at the first 12 seasons of Jerry Rice's career before his first injury, he was averaging 77 receptions a season.  Sterling Sharpe has the all time record (over a 6 year career) with 85 receptions a season.  Jerry Rice was able to recover from his injury and play at or near his prime for 6 more seasons.  We can throw in the QB argument here -- Marvin played for 2 years with Jim Harbaugh who was an average NFL QB, then had a year with rookie Peyton Manning who struggled mightily.  Jerry Rice came into the league when Joe Montana had already established himself as the games greatest QB, and then transitioned to fellow HOFer Steve Young after Steve had lots of mentorship from Montana -- so I would say Rice had much better QBing for the first 12 years of his career than Marvin .  Had Marvin not gotten hurt, it is quite feasible that he would hold every WR record in the history books.  Marvin, as a little guy, holds the record for most consecutive seasons with 10 or more TD's (8), which is quite impressive. 

 

Sorry to rant here, but Marvin Harrison was an absolute stud.  Yes, sure after the 4th or 5th year in his career (which is greater than 33% of his career), Marvin benefitted from having a stud QB in Peyton Manning.  Regardless, he was a stud.  To say it would be a bad argument to say at one point in time he could be argued as the 2nd best WR ever, is ridiculous.  I think he is still in that argument, and if you cut Jerry Rice's or Tony Gonzalez's career off at the same length as Marvin's, Marvin would hold just about every WR record and quite possibly have an argument as the best ever.

 

I like TY a lot, but he's going to have to produce for a long time before I consider putting him into Marvin's category.  Teams have shown they can take TY out of a game by changing coverage on him, and TY has shown to be much less consistent when he doesn't have a healthy Reggie next to him.  Teams were never able to totally stop Marvin, regardless of who was on the field with him.

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Marvin was the best WR in the league for the majority of his career.  There are a couple of seasons where Randy Moss or Larry Fitzgerald may have won that argument and obviously Marvin wasn't fully healthy in his last 2 seasons due to knee injury.  Marvin should have been a first ballot HOFer -- I think off-field issues later in his career/post-career really hindered him there.  Marvin is arguably the greatest route-runner of all time and his hands are in that discussion as well.  Sure, playing with Peyton helped, but he was a complete stud and would have lasted for a long time in the league regardless of where he played.  I'll post some links in comments below.

 

 

 

They are not hoping for a 2 year super bowl window.  We have Andrew Luck, the best young QB in football (and may be just a year or 2 away from surpassing Rodgers, Brady, and Manning), and we will want to be competitive for his whole career.  This has been echoed by Irsay numerous times.

 

 

1. You are correct on Carter.

2. I am interested to see how this plays out.  I think Dorsett has a very good shot at beating Moncrief for the 3rd spot, though I don't think either will truly be a 3/4 WR as they have very different sizes and skill sets -- they will probably be used at WR as dictated by the situation we're in.  I think we are the only team in the NFL with 3 WRs who run 4.3 (TY, Moncrief, Dorsett) -- Moncrief I believe recently said they have a package called the Indy 500 which will utilize the speed of all 3.  I fully expect Dorsett to have valuable contributions as a WR this season.

 

 

Yes -- Harrison was the greatest WR of his generation.  Nobody else was close.  Moss may have had a couple years where he was scaring the daylights out of defenses, but he was nowhere near as consistent as Marvin.  Marvin never took a play off, and was the quietest star WR of the 'me me me' generation that he played with (Keyshawn Johnson - "Give Me the Damn Ball", Terrell Owens, Chad OchoCinco, Randy Moss, etc.... none of these guys came close to producing like Marvin and all were primadonnas).  Marvin quietly went about his business, practiced his tail off, and showed up to play every Sunday.  Marvin was also a great leader when he needed to be -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLGIxMaca9o  -- one of my all time favorite Marvin moments was on Nov. 5, 2006 -- we were big rivals with New England and everyone said Indy was the softer of the two teams and that we weren't tough or hardened enough to beat the Pats -- in 3 point game in the 3rd quarter Marvin made a tremendous catch then got up and spiked the ball into Mike Vrabel's chest and jawed back and forth with Vrabel for a bit after that -- we went on to win that game and later that year, we won the Super Bowl.  I honestly think that play right there was one of the biggest plays of the season, Marvin put it right to the Patriots and let them know we've got some fire in Indy and we're not backing down anymore -- to me, that play carried over to the rest of our team and all the sudden everyone was a little tougher and meaner. 

 

 

Not even close to a poor argument.  Charles Tillman and Champ Bailey, 2 of the best CBs in the league throughout a good chunk of Marvin's tenure, both say Marvin is the best they ever played against.  http://www.stampedeblue.com/2014/10/16/6988669/charles-tillman-says-best-offensive-player-hes-ever-faced-is-marvin In this interview Tillman was asked who the hardest to cover was, and he specifically said not Calvin Johnson or Randy Moss -- "Marvin Harrison.  He was unstoppable. The best I ever played against."   In a different interview, Champ Bailey gives some credit to Peyton but he said is his (Hall of Fame) career, nobody ever gave him more trouble than Marvin.

 

Look up Marvin on Wikipedia -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Harrison -- all of those stats are factual.  Look at his credentials.  They are ridiculous.

 

Prior to his injury Marvin was averaging 93 receptions a season (one of these seasons he only played 12 games with rookie Peyton Manning and one of the seasons, 2002, when he was our primary weapon and the focus of other team's secondaries, Marvin pulled in an NFL record 143 receptions while facing double and triple teams every single game).  This was far more than any other WR ever -- for comparison if you look at the first 12 seasons of Jerry Rice's career before his first injury, he was averaging 77 receptions a season.  Sterling Sharpe has the all time record (over a 6 year career) with 85 receptions a season.  Jerry Rice was able to recover from his injury and play at or near his prime for 6 more seasons.  We can throw in the QB argument here -- Marvin played for 2 years with Jim Harbaugh who was an average NFL QB, then had a year with rookie Peyton Manning who struggled mightily.  Jerry Rice came into the league when Joe Montana had already established himself as the games greatest QB, and then transitioned to fellow HOFer Steve Young after Steve had lots of mentorship from Montana -- so I would say Rice had much better QBing for the first 12 years of his career than Marvin .  Had Marvin not gotten hurt, it is quite feasible that he would hold every WR record in the history books.  Marvin, as a little guy, holds the record for most consecutive seasons with 10 or more TD's (8), which is quite impressive. 

 

Sorry to rant here, but Marvin Harrison was an absolute stud.  Yes, sure after the 4th or 5th year in his career (which is greater than 33% of his career), Marvin benefitted from having a stud QB in Peyton Manning.  Regardless, he was a stud.  To say it would be a bad argument to say at one point in time he could be argued as the 2nd best WR ever, is ridiculous.  I think he is still in that argument, and if you cut Jerry Rice's or Tony Gonzalez's career off at the same length as Marvin's, Marvin would hold just about every WR record and quite possibly have an argument as the best ever.

 

I like TY a lot, but he's going to have to produce for a long time before I consider putting him into Marvin's category.  Teams have shown they can take TY out of a game by changing coverage on him, and TY has shown to be much less consistent when he doesn't have a healthy Reggie next to him.  Teams were never able to totally stop Marvin, regardless of who was on the field with him.

Good lord, you just wasted your time writing all of that.....I already knew all of it. This is a colts forum...I know of Marvins exploits.

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Good lord, you just wasted your time writing all of that.....I already knew all of it. This is a colts forum...I know of Marvins exploits.

 

How then would it be a poor argument to say Marvin at one point could have been argued as the 2nd best WR in NFL history? 

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How then would it be a poor argument to say Marvin at one point could have been argued as the 2nd best WR in NFL history?

Because there are others that were clearly better. That may not have the numbers, but numbers rarely tell the whole story. Great player, should have been a 1st ballot HOF, it he isn't even in the discussion as top 5 receiver IMO.

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Because there are others that were clearly better. That may not have the numbers, but numbers rarely tell the whole story. Great player, should have been a 1st ballot HOF, it he isn't even in the discussion as top 5 receiver IMO.

He should have been a first ballot HOF.  Most nfl media and experts agree.  Only issue was there were so many people that was sitting waiting to get in that belonged in there as well. Including greats that have been on the list for some time at his position.

 

"Harrison belongs in Canton ASAP. Forget the bloated passing numbers of this era; Harrison eclipsed his contemporaries. His stunning achievement of notching 143 catches in 2002 still stands as the NFL record. Meanwhile, his career numbers of 1,102 catches (third) and 14,580 yards (sixth) rank him among the all-time greats. Harrison was a more reliable receiver than Terrell Owens or Randy Moss."

http://www.nfl.com/halloffame/story/0ap1000000226326/article/michael-strahan-charles-haley-headline-next-50-hall-of-famers

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I think the Colts are absolutely going to try and keep TY, but I don't see them being dumb and overpaying too much to keep him. The team drafted it's insurance this year in Dorsett and I'll think that regardless of what anyone in the Colts organization says. 

 

Team's win all the time without superstar WR's. A great QB can elevate a good WR to greatness, we watched it so many years with Peyton. EDIT:  I want to make it clear that I'm not saying Peyton didn't have superstar WR's at his disposal because he did through his era...But he elevated many players around him on his talent alone. 

 

If we get to keep TY awesome, I love the player. If we let him go in betterment of the team then I will completely understand the Colt's decision. 

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Posted · Hidden by 21isSuperman, July 20, 2015 - inappropriate
Hidden by 21isSuperman, July 20, 2015 - inappropriate

Good lord, you just wasted your time writing all of that.....I already knew all of it. This is a colts forum...I know of Marvins exploits.

 

 

Because there are others that were clearly better. That may not have the numbers, but numbers rarely tell the whole story. Great player, should have been a 1st ballot HOF, it he isn't even in the discussion as top 5 receiver IMO.

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Posted · Hidden by 21isSuperman, July 20, 2015 - response to hidden post
Hidden by 21isSuperman, July 20, 2015 - response to hidden post

You must really like Marvin.....

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yeah, Superman is right, being a #1 receiver does not mean he is that same caliber as Megatron, Dez.  It Does mean however he is a Qb's #1 target, and that he is a top 10 WR in the NFL. 

Hilton gets double covered all the time.  He won't see those kind of coverage's this coming year if the WR corps stay healthy.  Being he has fined tuned his hands and route running working with Reggie the past few years to go along with his speed means he will still get the majority of the targets this year, even over A.j.. projecting that means he should actually have a better year statistically than last.

Hilton only real disadvantage is his size, and that is only a disadvantage in the redzone. This fact should drop his contract and is why i think he is a 12-12.5 mil/year qb instead of a 15 mil.

I just hope we can swing that kind of long term $ for a WR long term and not hurt our chances signing other needed players the next few years.

I completely agree with this comment. TY is a top talent, but is not the kind of red zone monster that distinguishes the absolute best WRs from the rest. 

What's wrong is an average of $12.5 million per year for 5 years with a $20 million guarantee and a decent signing bonus built into that? Maybe TY can do a bit better elsewhere, but he'd be walking away from a championship caliber team with the best young QB in the business. That does factor into the equation. 

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I completely agree with this comment. TY is a top talent, but is not the kind of red zone monster that distinguishes the absolute best WRs from the rest. 

What's wrong is an average of $12.5 million per year for 5 years with a $20 million guarantee and a decent signing bonus built into that? Maybe TY can do a bit better elsewhere, but he'd be walking away from a championship caliber team with the best young QB in the business. That does factor into the equation. 

 

I think there's a consensus that he'll be under the DT/Dez range, assuming he doesn't reach free agency.

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Nice explanation!  It does show that it is very possible.  The averages looked about on target, for the most part, however the breakdown of the first few years I think is probably far off.  It seems like Grigs likes to front load alot of deals (not all the time though). 

 

Furthermore, this is only year 4 in the new program, believe it or not, were far from the monster being built.  Although it may seem we are a high caliber team (and we are) but we have much to build on.  I saw the remaining cap after the fact these players are paid, which will be enough to resign other future expiring contracts, but is this also going to allow us to bring in other impact players during the offseason? 

 

Like I said before, I for one am tired of seeing a mediocre (at best), to terrible defense trying to bend but not break!  Our offense is going to be prolific with Andrew Luck under center.  I just don't see the defense improving like it should.  Not that they're in the bottom 10% in the league, but they sure as heck aren't league leaders in any categories either. 

 

I know your a smart guy, so really would you rather have the best offense in the league (and perhaps one of the greatest of all time) and settle for a mediocre defense with maybe 1 or 2 SB's, or would you like to see a balanced team with superstars on both sides of the ball, while potentially being a dynasty in this era.  Maybe I'm getting a little ahead of myself, but we have built fast, have a strong young core, with great leadership in several veterans (who will be gone soon), and I can forsee a similar model in which when Manning was the QB.  I truly believe Manning is better than Brady (and not as close as people think).  The difference maker is the coaches, and how they built the programs.  IMO, Manning's best defense was probably similar to what Brady's worst defense was throughout his career!  Without balance, you don't see the rings.

 

I understand that it is possible to sign all of these guys, but it will unfortunately keep us in the mode of offense first and have a bend but don't break defense.  I wouldn't think it's possible (without significant pay cuts) to be able to have 3-4 pro bowl impact players on defense.  Davis is the only one we have now.  Mathis was there, but I don't forsee him being the same player as in the past.  I understand you build talent throught the draft also, but were a good 2-3 years away from any of the new talent we've brough in recently to be pro bowl caliber players, and that's a big IF they do workout!

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1. Actually, Seattle has a really good defense, a pretty crappy offensive line, and two playmakers in Wilson and Lynch (now add Graham). They have their warts too. They thought Harvin was a #1 WR--that's my point...they acquired and payed him like he was a #1. So, obviously, they wanted to get better on offensive by adding a #1 WR. They also, obviously, completely missed on Harvin, but their intent was clear: get better on offense by adding a #1 WR.

 

2. You named all the average ones but are neglecting the fact that he always had at least two stud WR/TE. 

 

3. You completely lost me here. In no way, shape, or form, should the Colts trade draft picks to get a Watt or Houston. They should utilize their draft picks to draft defensive playmakers. 

1.  Well when you have absolutely no playmakers (where the seahawks were pretty much at that time) in the receiving game you get anxious and perhaps a little desperate at times to surround a young superstar with weapons.  I think it was just a bad move!

 

2.  Manning never had 2 stud TE's at the same time.  Maybe one good and an average one, but just because Colts utilize 2 TE's often doesn't mean they're anything special!  In which, he still made them look good.  I know he was aging but did DC do anything in TB?  He almost fell off the map!!  Again, I truly believe Manning made him look better than what he really was.  But yes, Clark was an above average TE.  It still doesn't dismiss the point that he has made countless no named players, capture headlines a few times in their career.  My point is that ANY great QB CAN and WILL do if they have to.  Brady has done it his whole career.  His defense gets him the ball back in good field position as a result!

 

3.  I think you missed my point.  I was merely saying they're are several ways to get great talent.  One way was to trade good depth to acquire and bank picks.  On draft day, bundle those picks and move into the top 10-15 to hit on a guy that slipped a little.  The Cleveland Browns have done it several times, however, they couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat.  They are screwups.  Another point I was trying to make was with the depth we have at WR or perhaps another position, could be used in a package deal with picks, to get another teams franchise player, whose desperate and willing to make a deal.

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...

 

Couple points of contention:

 

1) Grigson doesn't frontload contracts. He structures balanced contracts that aren't backloaded. 

 

2) Good teams add superstar talent primarily through the draft, not by signing free agents. So if you want to build a strong, balanced roster, the ability to bring in impact players in free agency is secondary to the ability to draft quality players and develop them in the pros. Then, once you develop them, keeping them becomes important. This is exemplified in Vontae Davis; even though we didn't draft him, we did get him cheap for two years, develop him, and then kept him on a relatively team-friendly contract that was still top ten at his position. Meanwhile, the Bills spent $96m on Mario Williams, and haven't sniffed the playoffs. Elite defensive talent doesn't walk out the door unless the player is completely overpriced, relative to his value.

 

So far, Grigson hasn't added a lot of star caliber talent on defense through the draft. Blame that on a couple of mistakes in back to back years, and some knuckleheads that blew their chances. And a couple free agent adds didn't quite work out -- Landry, Jones so far, etc. But as he gets better return on his draft picks -- Newsome, Smith, Anderson, etc. -- that should change. 

 

If the contention is that Hilton isn't worthy of the kind of money the market says it will take to keep him, that's a different conversation. Even if the contention is that he might be worthy of that kind of money, but isn't as valuable to the Colts, that's still another conversation. Much more nuanced, and one that is hard to reach any kind of definitive conclusion on.

 

But there's really no debating where the market is for a player with his production. Nor is there any debating whether the Colts can afford to pay him what the market currently demands; that was the whole point of the post I linked to. If the Colts feel that the value isn't there for them, and they let him walk, fine. Let's just not pretend that the market doesn't support his (assumed) demands, and let's not pretend that the Colts don't have the cap space to keep him.

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Above average with a QB like Manning, not so much with Geno Smith!  That was one of the points I was making.  Also the Jets really didn't have too many other good receivers to steal targets from Eric.

 

Geno Smith has quite possibly been the worst QB in the league the past two seasons. Compare Decker's stats in 2014 with Reggie Wayne's stats in 2011. Terrible QBing can wipe a good receiver off the map.

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Geno Smith has quite possibly been the worst QB in the league the past two seasons. Compare Decker's stats in 2014 with Reggie Wayne's stats in 2011. Terrible QBing can wipe a good receiver off the map.

 

Because we're playing the Jets in week 2,  I wanted to make a point about Smith...

 

I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but it's my understanding that Smith closed last year extremely strong.

 

Something like a 64% completion average and a TD/Int ratio of 6-2....   something close to that.

 

My point is....   as bad as Smith has been overall the last two years,  the light may have finally come on last December.   If so,  the Colts may be facing a much, much better QB than his overall numbers might suggest.....

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