Why I'm not worried about the Colts pass protection

[Superman]

Most of us are aware of the Irsay directive to protect the QB. And we're also familiar with the Grigson anecdote about how, after the loss to the Ravens in the 2012 playoffs, he wrote himself a note that has stayed on his desk ever since: Protect 12. Obviously, pass protection is a big deal to the people in charge, and it should be. You have to give the QB time to throw, and you obviously want to protect him from unnecessary hits.

 

So why wouldn't I be worried about our pass protection? It seems counter intuitive. We don't even know who's going to play right tackle. The center position is technically still up for grabs. We could have two new guards. There are lots of reasons to be unsettled, but here are a few reasons why I believe it will be okay.

 

1) Whoever starts at RT will be better than the broken 2014 version of Gosder Cherilus. Even if it's still Gosder Cherilus. He gave up too much pressure last season, and was clearly the weak link in protection, but either he'll be healthier, or he'll be replaced by Mewhort, Reitz or Herremans, all of whom were better than he was last season. I'm convinced the staff won't suffer through his leaky protection all season long.

 

2) It's unlikely that the center position will be so unsettled. I assume Holmes will be the guy, and while his protection isn't perfect, he showed a better combination of pre-snap awareness and post-snap mobility than anyone else who played this position last year. Even if he can't stay healthy, Harrison's 400+ plays and a full offseason should have him more prepared in 2015. 

 

3) Luck will be better, for several reasons: Another year under his belt, better recognition of when to throw hot, better playcalling, etc. But bigger than anything else is a better, deeper receiving corps. It should be easier for guys to get open right away, especially against quick pressure, giving Luck somewhere to go with the ball. He's already a blitz killer, with 18 TDs and a 110.7 passer rating against the blitz; having a more rounded out and deeper complement of guys to throw to will help him tremendously.

 

4) The big thing, tied to #3, is that Luck, like most QBs, is more efficient when he gets rid of the ball quickly. The problem is that, in 2014, Luck was 4th in the league in long-developing pass attempts, with 57.9% of his throws coming at least 2.6 seconds after the snap. Other metrics highlight the fact that Luck consistently has enough time to throw, and the bigger issue is either guys not getting open or him missing opportunities to get rid of the ball. Between Luck and Pep Hamilton getting better before the snap and the receivers being better at creating separation, there should be notable improvement here.

 

5) Going back to the actual line play, I believe that Hugh Thornton still has a chance to be a great lineman. Not just good, but great. The physical tools are all there. Between being shuffled between 3 different positions the past three years and having various injuries that have affected his movement and conditioning, he's been held back a little bit. As of last week, he's lost 12 pounds and is likely in better shape than in the past. He's only 24 this season. If he can stay healthy and well-conditioned, he has a chance to be our best offensive lineman, IMO.

 

6) We've added proven depth and will have lots of competition from LG over to RT. In a perfect world, Herremans and Reitz don't even start because Mewhort and Thornton hold down both guard spots and Cherilus bounces back and plays RT. But Herremans and Reitz can play three positions, and then there's still the fantasy of a healthy Donald Thomas. Even if we get rid of Cherilus and Thomas -- which I think we should -- we have several options still at RT and both guard spots, and none of them are bad. 

 

7) If there are significant injuries that weaken us along the interior, there are still several veteran linemen available out there, one of them being one of the best guards in the league over the past three seasons. So if push comes to shove, we can still supplement our stable of blockers.

 

All of these are reasons why I'm not worried about our pass protection. I think, more than anything, that better play from Luck and the receivers will take a lot of pressure off of the line to protect, and I think that the talent we have along the line will be better than it has been so far in the Luck era. I'm obviously being optimistic, but this is the time of year for optimism. Every team has bumps in the road from time to time, but I think there are plenty of reasons to believe that the protection will be solid, if not really good, in 2015.

 

/rant

[CR91]

you had me til you said thornton has a chance to be our best lineman and starting over herramans

[Track Guy]

you had me til you said thornton has a chance to be our best lineman and starting over herramans

 

 

Thornton is a pretty massive guard and he's athletic. He can pull and he's good against the bull rush. Do I think he'll ever be better than Costanzo? Hell no. I think Mewhort is probably going to be a better player than Thornton too (he already is, I think it'll stay that way). But in terms of ceiling, I'd say after those guys he's probably the next highest. He hasn't played up to anywhere's near it at all, but in terms of what he could potentially become there's some optimism. That game against the St. Louis Rams his rookie season still bothers me though, he got absolutely abused. 

[bababooey]

Not to mention Gore back there to pass protect as well.

[Track Guy]

I'm hazarding a guess our opening day offensive line will be:

LT: Castonzo

LG: Thornton

C: Holmes

RG: Herremans

RT: Mewhort

[throwing BBZ]

you had me til you said thornton has a chance to be our best lineman and starting over herramans

 

 Hey, anything is possible.

 Thornton, so far, hasn`t show the mental or physical ability to compete at this level.

 But he has a "mean streak" and "toughness".

 I hope he mans up some day. Maybe his contract year!

[pgt_rob]

I'm not buying #5. I just don't see it, at all sadly.

[throwing BBZ]

Thornton is a pretty massive guard and he's athletic. He can pull and he's good against the bull rush. Do I think he'll ever be better than Costanzo? Hell no. I think Mewhort is probably going to be a better player than Thornton too (he already is, I think it'll stay that way). But in terms of ceiling, I'd say after those guys he's probably the next highest. He hasn't played up to anywhere's near it at all, but in terms of what he could potentially become there's some optimism. That game against the St. Louis Rams his rookie season still bothers me though, he got absolutely abused. 

 

 He is actually poor against most ANY rush, bull or otherwise, and has he ever cleanly picked up a stunt?

[Dustin]

Not to be too pessimistic, but 

 

 

 Whoever starts at RT will be better than the broken 2014 version of Gosder Cherilus

 

 

 

 

Not remotely a given at all. Our options are Joe Reitz, who was very lackluster at RT, and Jack Mewhort, a slow-footed guard who hasn't played RT in 3 years. Even if we do get upgraded RT play, there's not much of an upgrade between "terrible" and "bad" which would be expected of two first-year starers at RT. 

 

 

2) It's unlikely that the center position will be so unsettled. I assume Holmes will be the guy, and while his protection isn't perfect, he showed a better combination of pre-snap awareness and post-snap mobility than anyone else who played this position last year. Even if he can't stay healthy, Harrison's 400+ plays and a full offseason should have him more prepared in 2015. 

 

Being able to make calls pre-snap and be mobile are definitely good traits to have, but I'm more worried about how he actually performs as a pass-blocker. Making the right-call is cool and all, but is it worth it if he gets bowled over by a DT 2 seconds later? So far I haven't seen anything to dicatate that he'd be a terrible pass-blocker, but even at his peak he'll probably just be average. 

 

 

5) Going back to the actual line play, I believe that Hugh Thornton still has a chance to be a great lineman. Not just good, but great. The physical tools are all there. Between being shuffled between 3 different positions the past three years and having various injuries that have affected his movement and conditioning, he's been held back a little bit. As of last week, he's lost 12 pounds and is likely in better shape than in the past. He's only 24 this season. If he can stay healthy and well-conditioned, he has a chance to be our best offensive lineman, IMO.

 

 

I'll settle for him to ever reach "below-average". If being physically gifted was all it took to be a great guard then the NFL wouldn't have such a shortage of starting quality lineman. 

 

6) We've added proven depth and will have lots of competition from LG over to RT. In a perfect world, Herremans and Reitz don't even start because Mewhort and Thornton hold down both guard spots and Cherilus bounces back and plays RT. But Herremans and Reitz can play three positions, and then there's still the fantasy of a healthy Donald Thomas. Even if we get rid of Cherilus and Thomas -- which I think we should -- we have several options still at RT and both guard spots, and none of them are bad. 

 

 

In a perfect world, Reitz starts over Thornton because he's a better football player. 

[Coffeedrinker]

Thanks Superman that was an excellent post:

 

The thing that stood out the most to me was 57% of Luck's passes took longer than 2.6 seconds.  He needs to get that down, PFF (one of the things I like about PFF) has done numerous tracking at QB completion % goes down dramatically if they hold the ball longer than 2.5 seconds.

 

I like Thornton a lot and the people who think he has not shown anything yet in the NFL does not pay attention to the oline.  Watch Thornton in the first quarter and most of the 3rd quarter in any game and you see a guy who dominates most battles.  I think his biggest problem is conditioning because usually starting at around snap 20 (+ or - depending on how long the D stays on the field) he form and technique really starts to suffer.  Then in the 3rd quarter he will come out strong again but then start fading in that same snap count range.  He has great feet and lower body agility for a guy his size and he is the fastest olineman off the snap on the Colts and probably one of the tops in the league.  If he ever gets his body into shape so he can handle 50-60 snaps a game he could be really, really good.

[Flash7]

The O-line has steadily improved every year in the Luck era. I went back and re-watched the 2012 season -- what a nightmare that was. On just about every snap, Luck was running for his life. Last year, with what I would call an average pass blocking O-line, the Colts had one of the best passing offenses. So, overall I am not too worried about the O-line's ability to pass block. I think we will be okay there.

 

I would like to see more of an improvement with our run game. Frank Gore should help out here, but it would be nice to see more consistency in our run blocking.

[krunk]

I'm more concerned with the run blocking than I am with the pass blocking.  That is the area I feel most insecure about, however I'm expecting things to be better with us having more capable runners this year. Hopefully the guard play will be improved as well.  I think we'll do fine with the pass blocking overall.

[akcolt]

I am on the Thorton bandwagon too. I think this is the year he puts it all together. I was glad to see that he lost some weight.

 

I totally disagree about Holmes. He didn't impress me when healthy and he can't stay healthy. I think a year and a couple of camps for Harrison and he will win the job if not by default. I would be shocked if Holmes once again fails to make it to week one. 

 

The addition of Herremmans to add some veteran leadership to the O Line helps. I think this group finally starts come around this year. I believe the biggest key with be stability at C with Harrison learning from two camps and being thrown in last year.

[Superman]

Not to be too pessimistic, but 

 

 

Not remotely a given at all. Our options are Joe Reitz, who was very lackluster at RT, and Jack Mewhort, a slow-footed guard who hasn't played RT in 3 years. Even if we do get upgraded RT play, there's not much of an upgrade between "terrible" and "bad" which would be expected of two first-year starers at RT. 

 

 

 

Being able to make calls pre-snap and be mobile are definitely good traits to have, but I'm more worried about how he actually performs as a pass-blocker. Making the right-call is cool and all, but is it worth it if he gets bowled over by a DT 2 seconds later? So far I haven't seen anything to dicatate that he'd be a terrible pass-blocker, but even at his peak he'll probably just be average. 

 

 

 

I'll settle for him to ever reach "below-average". If being physically gifted was all it took to be a great guard then the NFL wouldn't have such a shortage of starting quality lineman. 

 

 

In a perfect world, Reitz starts over Thornton because he's a better football player. 

 

We're not even close on bad Cherilus. Any scenario we can project right now is better. That's before I disagree with your assessment of Reitz and Mewhort's ability at RT. Just a statistical analysis, Reitz gave up 9 pressures in 41 pass plays against the Pats, but Luck took > 2.6 seconds to throw on 72% of his pass attempts. No one could get open. Get guys open faster, and don't put a broken turnstile at RT, and the protection is automatically better. Even if the player isn't that good.

 

Holmes being able to identify things pre-snap and having the feet to pick up inside blitzes is what will give Luck at least 2 seconds to throw the ball, so even if he does get bowled over, he's already done a better job than our centers did for the first three months of the season last year. And like you said, there's no reason to expect him to get bowled over with any consistency, though he does have some technical/balance issues.

 

I also disagree on Thornton. Between not playing the same position for more than three months and battling an assortment of injuries his first two seasons, I think we've barely scratched the surface with him. All the linemen should get more coaching this season, since there's two OL coaches, and that will definitely help the young guys. And while I'm good with Reitz starting, it would be far more beneficial for the team if Thornton's potential actually starts to materialize at some point during camp. But if it's Reitz or Herremans, that's fine. Better than Louis or some of the bums we had prior to 2014. 

[Bravo]

I'm worried about the offensive line as a whole....

Pass blocking should be okay once we figure out who will be starting but we will have to see how run blocking goes!! See if it can atleast he average this year and not very poor like in the past.

[Superman]

The O-line has steadily improved every year in the Luck era. I went back and re-watched the 2012 season -- what a nightmare that was. On just about every snap, Luck was running for his life. Last year, with what I would call an average pass blocking O-line, the Colts had one of the best passing offenses. So, overall I am not too worried about the O-line's ability to pass block. I think we will be okay there.

 

I would like to see more of an improvement with our run game. Frank Gore should help out here, but it would be nice to see more consistency in our run blocking.

 

 

I'm more concerned with the run blocking than I am with the pass blocking.  That is the area I feel most insecure about, however I'm expecting things to be better with us having more capable runners this year. Hopefully the guard play will be improved as well.  I think we'll do fine with the pass blocking overall.

 

I failed to mention that specifically. I think improvement in the run blocking is far more critical for this team right now, and expect the pass blocking to be sufficient, at the least.

[Superman]

Thanks Superman that was an excellent post:

 

The thing that stood out the most to me was 57% of Luck's passes took longer than 2.6 seconds.  He needs to get that down, PFF (one of the things I like about PFF) has done numerous tracking at QB completion % goes down dramatically if they hold the ball longer than 2.5 seconds.

 

I like Thornton a lot and the people who think he has not shown anything yet in the NFL does not pay attention to the oline.  Watch Thornton in the first quarter and most of the 3rd quarter in any game and you see a guy who dominates most battles.  I think his biggest problem is conditioning because usually starting at around snap 20 (+ or - depending on how long the D stays on the field) he form and technique really starts to suffer.  Then in the 3rd quarter he will come out strong again but then start fading in that same snap count range.  He has great feet and lower body agility for a guy his size and he is the fastest olineman off the snap on the Colts and probably one of the tops in the league.  If he ever gets his body into shape so he can handle 50-60 snaps a game he could be really, really good.

 

You mentioned a while back that you thought Thornton's conditioning was an issue, and in my rewatchings since then, I've noticed him get worse as the games go on. Could be simple conditioning, and could also have to do with him playing through pain, which gets harder as the game goes on. Either way, if he's better conditioned -- lost 12 pounds -- and if he's healthy -- knock on wood -- then those two things go away as concerns.

 

I think he has as much upside as anyone on the line. I think people should go back to that Niners game in 2013. After getting thrown in after Thomas' injury the week before -- as a rookie in Week 2, playing LG instead of RG, where he had been working through camp and preseason -- and playing poorly, he bounced back with a great game against one of the best defensive lines in the league. I know I'm bullish on him, but he has a ton of potential. 

[LockeDown]

When you think of Jeff Saturday, probably the first 2 things that come to your mind are intelligence and leadership, not necessarily strength.  That gives me hope for Holmes, who by all accounts is a smart guy.  I too think he gets the early nod.     

[jskinnz]

Most of us are aware of the Irsay directive to protect the QB. And we're also familiar with the Grigson anecdote about how, after the loss to the Ravens in the 2012 playoffs, he wrote himself a note that has stayed on his desk ever since: Protect 12. Obviously, pass protection is a big deal to the people in charge, and it should be. You have to give the QB time to throw, and you obviously want to protect him from unnecessary hits.

 

So why wouldn't I be worried about our pass protection? It seems counter intuitive. We don't even know who's going to play right tackle. The center position is technically still up for grabs. We could have two new guards. There are lots of reasons to be unsettled, but here are a few reasons why I believe it will be okay.

 

1) Whoever starts at RT will be better than the broken 2014 version of Gosder Cherilus. Even if it's still Gosder Cherilus. He gave up too much pressure last season, and was clearly the weak link in protection, but either he'll be healthier, or he'll be replaced by Mewhort, Reitz or Herremans, all of whom were better than he was last season. I'm convinced the staff won't suffer through his leaky protection all season long.

 

2) It's unlikely that the center position will be so unsettled. I assume Holmes will be the guy, and while his protection isn't perfect, he showed a better combination of pre-snap awareness and post-snap mobility than anyone else who played this position last year. Even if he can't stay healthy, Harrison's 400+ plays and a full offseason should have him more prepared in 2015. 

 

3) Luck will be better, for several reasons: Another year under his belt, better recognition of when to throw hot, better playcalling, etc. But bigger than anything else is a better, deeper receiving corps. It should be easier for guys to get open right away, especially against quick pressure, giving Luck somewhere to go with the ball. He's already a blitz killer, with 18 TDs and a 110.7 passer rating against the blitz; having a more rounded out and deeper complement of guys to throw to will help him tremendously.

 

4) The big thing, tied to #3, is that Luck, like most QBs, is more efficient when he gets rid of the ball quickly. The problem is that, in 2014, Luck was 4th in the league in long-developing pass attempts, with 57.9% of his throws coming at least 2.6 seconds after the snap. Other metrics highlight the fact that Luck consistently has enough time to throw, and the bigger issue is either guys not getting open or him missing opportunities to get rid of the ball. Between Luck and Pep Hamilton getting better before the snap and the receivers being better at creating separation, there should be notable improvement here.

 

5) Going back to the actual line play, I believe that Hugh Thornton still has a chance to be a great lineman. Not just good, but great. The physical tools are all there. Between being shuffled between 3 different positions the past three years and having various injuries that have affected his movement and conditioning, he's been held back a little bit. As of last week, he's lost 12 pounds and is likely in better shape than in the past. He's only 24 this season. If he can stay healthy and well-conditioned, he has a chance to be our best offensive lineman, IMO.

 

6) We've added proven depth and will have lots of competition from LG over to RT. In a perfect world, Herremans and Reitz don't even start because Mewhort and Thornton hold down both guard spots and Cherilus bounces back and plays RT. But Herremans and Reitz can play three positions, and then there's still the fantasy of a healthy Donald Thomas. Even if we get rid of Cherilus and Thomas -- which I think we should -- we have several options still at RT and both guard spots, and none of them are bad. 

 

7) If there are significant injuries that weaken us along the interior, there are still several veteran linemen available out there, one of them being one of the best guards in the league over the past three seasons. So if push comes to shove, we can still supplement our stable of blockers.

 

All of these are reasons why I'm not worried about our pass protection. I think, more than anything, that better play from Luck and the receivers will take a lot of pressure off of the line to protect, and I think that the talent we have along the line will be better than it has been so far in the Luck era. I'm obviously being optimistic, but this is the time of year for optimism. Every team has bumps in the road from time to time, but I think there are plenty of reasons to believe that the protection will be solid, if not really good, in 2015.

 

/rant

 

Excellent post...

 

I think the masses fall prey to what the Kiper's, McShay's, Schlereth's and other NFL talking heads are spouting.  Or what the uninformed on here are throwing at the wall on a daily basis.  The common rhetoric on Indy is the offensive line is weak but I have heard precious little when it comes to Grigson's thinking - which is simply a lack of continuity is the biggest issue they have faced.  If they can stay healthy and play together all season, that will have a huge impact on the success of the o in particular and team in general.  But should injuries happen again this year, they seem very well prepared with depth that they have not had previously. 

 

Of the things I worry about with the Colts, the o'line is far down the list. 

[Superman]

When you think of Jeff Saturday, probably the first 2 things that come to your mind are intelligence and leadership, not necessarily strength.  That gives me hope for Holmes, who by all accounts is a smart guy.  I too think he gets the early nod.     

 

Saturday also had heart and toughness, which is something Holmes might have shown a lack of last season. But his ability before the snap is what distinguishes him from Shipley and Harrison, for sure.

[Superman]

Excellent post...

 

I think the masses fall prey to what the Kiper's, McShay's, Schlereth's and other NFL talking heads are spouting.  Or what the uninformed on here are throwing at the wall on a daily basis.  The common rhetoric on Indy is the offensive line is weak but I have heard precious little when it comes to Grigson's thinking - which is simply a lack of continuity is the biggest issue they have faced.  If they can stay healthy and play together all season, that will have a huge impact on the success of the o in particular and team in general.  But should injuries happen again this year, they seem very well prepared with depth that they have not had previously. 

 

Of the things I worry about with the Colts, the o'line is far down the list. 

 

Yup, after the draft, Kiper's main sticking point was "oh no, they didn't draft a tackle in the first round!" And not only is needs-based drafting and grading a mistake, but as far as protection goes, a major upgrade at tackle isn't really in order. Consistency is more critical, and the QB getting rid of the ball is the biggest improvement that can be made anyways. At some point we'll need another young tackle, but it wasn't even our biggest need this offseason. 

[southwest1]

Not to mention Gore back there to pass protect as well.

That's what gives me the most comfort out of all our new additions this year, I know Gore is money on blitz pickup & he'll give Luck the precious seconds he needs to make a vital 1st down completion on 3rd & long. 

 

I still wanna run the rock down our adversary's throat, but if we have to go the ariel attack route we can & we will succeed now. 

[southwest1]

Excellent post...

 

I think the masses fall prey to what the Kiper's, McShay's, Schlereth's and other NFL talking heads are spouting.  Or what the uninformed on here are throwing at the wall on a daily basis.  The common rhetoric on Indy is the offensive line is weak but I have heard precious little when it comes to Grigson's thinking - which is simply a lack of continuity is the biggest issue they have faced.  If they can stay healthy and play together all season, that will have a huge impact on the success of the o in particular and team in general.  But should injuries happen again this year, they seem very well prepared with depth that they have not had previously. 

 

Of the things I worry about with the Colts, the o'line is far down the list. 

Previous seasons of watching Andrew run for dear life out of a compromised pocket have still left me suspicious of how well we will perform here. So, forgive if I don't jump on Superman's band wagon goodwill tour bus immediately. I need to see it materialize in consistent fashion by say Halloween before my protection concerns for Luck are completely alleviated. 

 

I wanna believe Superman & it sounds nice, but I will wait & see what kind of force field Luck is given when the games matter 1st. 

 

Out of respect for Superman & the fact that he's a gifted writer, I will like his well written post. However for me, SW1 is still concerned about our o-line. But, just like NCF tried to clue into the fact that Chewy was the "Comeback Kid" I needed to witness it first hand myself. Once that happened, I was fine. The same protocol applies with INDY's front line. Don't tell me; Show me. Thank you. 

[Gavin]

If we can run the ball with some consistency then that will take away much of the need for Luck to throw the ball so much and thereby the hits will go down, Also wide receivers being able to get off physical coverage would help

[Doctor Mad]

Very nice analysis.  Nothing works better to slow a pass rush than a solid running game.  This year I believe that Gore, etal will provide that running threat.  My opinion is the follwoing.  Release Cherilus and Thomas.  Both are injury prone.  Sign Mathis to a 1 year deal.  Start Mathis and Herreman at the Guards and put Mewhort at RT.  As for the Center position, make it Holmes job to lose.  If he faulter, then Harrison.

[LockeDown]

If we can run the ball with some consistency then that will take away much of the need for Luck to throw the ball so much and thereby the hits will go down, Also wide receivers being able to get off physical coverage would help

 

I totally agree and I would also add this.  Having RBs (I know Gore can anyway) who can block well, run well and catch well takes a tremendous load off of Luck.  

[jskinnz]

Very nice analysis. Nothing works better to slow a pass rush than a solid running game. This year I believe that Gore, etal will provide that running threat. My opinion is the follwoing. Release Cherilus and Thomas. Both are injury prone. Sign Mathis to a 1 year deal. Start Mathis and Herreman at the Guards and put Mewhort at RT. As for the Center position, make it Holmes job to lose. If he faulter, then Harrison.

This one year deal you want Mathis to sign is for the league min too, right?

[NewColtsFan]

Very nice analysis.  Nothing works better to slow a pass rush than a solid running game.  This year I believe that Gore, etal will provide that running threat.  My opinion is the follwoing.  Release Cherilus and Thomas.  Both are injury prone.  Sign Mathis to a 1 year deal.  Start Mathis and Herreman at the Guards and put Mewhort at RT.  As for the Center position, make it Holmes job to lose.  If he faulter, then Harrison.

 

Mathis already signed a 1-year contract extension.     He did it last year while rehabbing from his injured achillies.

 

So, Mathis has this year and then he's got one more year (his extension)....    his salary both years (if my memory is correct)  is about $6 Mill each year.

[Superman]

Mathis already signed a 1-year contract extension.     He did it last year while rehabbing from his injured achillies.

 

So, Mathis has this year and then he's got one more year (his extension)....    his salary both years (if my memory is correct)  is about $6 Mill each year.

 

Pretty sure he's talking about Evan Mathis.

[NewColtsFan]

Pretty sure he's talking about Evan Mathis.

 

LoL.....    whoopsie!               

 

That's very different!     Never mind.                                 

[Carlos Danger]

Great post!

I generally agree, although I am not as confident about Thornton as you and maybe a little more bearish about RT this season, as well.

I think that the less direct improvements that you mentioned (Luck's improvement, better receiver depth, ect.)will pay big time dividends this season by making the O-Line look better than they really are in pass pro... run blocking, too FTM...

[MTC]

That was a great read Superman. 

 

I still have hope for Thornton as well. He has all the tools, just hasn't been effective enough.

[Superman]

Great post!

I generally agree, although I am not as confident about Thornton as you and maybe a little more bearish about RT this season, as well.

I think that the less direct improvements that you mentioned (Luck's improvement, better receiver depth, ect.)will pay big time dividends this season by making the O-Line look better than they really are in pass pro... run blocking, too FTM...

 

Peyton Manning is obviously the extreme example of this in practice. He's pressured less than any QB in the league, and that's not because his line is so great. It's mostly because he gets rid of the ball faster than anyone. And that's a direct product of him diagnosing plays before the snap, throwing hot, beating the blitz, etc., and that's made easier by him having good receivers that get open quickly. Lots of screen passes and shotgun/pistol formation help as well. 

 

If the line can be made to look better than it is by getting rid of the ball quickly, then it can be made to look worse than it is by holding on to the ball too long. I definitely believe that happens at times with Luck. 

[21isSuperman]

For what it's worth, I don't disagree with you on all of these points, but I'm trying to act as Devil's advocate to some degree here for the sake of conversation.

 

Most of us are aware of the Irsay directive to protect the QB. And we're also familiar with the Grigson anecdote about how, after the loss to the Ravens in the 2012 playoffs, he wrote himself a note that has stayed on his desk ever since: Protect 12. Obviously, pass protection is a big deal to the people in charge, and it should be. You have to give the QB time to throw, and you obviously want to protect him from unnecessary hits.

 

So why wouldn't I be worried about our pass protection? It seems counter intuitive. We don't even know who's going to play right tackle. The center position is technically still up for grabs. We could have two new guards. There are lots of reasons to be unsettled, but here are a few reasons why I believe it will be okay.

 

1) Whoever starts at RT will be better than the broken 2014 version of Gosder Cherilus. Even if it's still Gosder Cherilus. He gave up too much pressure last season, and was clearly the weak link in protection, but either he'll be healthier, or he'll be replaced by Mewhort, Reitz or Herremans, all of whom were better than he was last season. I'm convinced the staff won't suffer through his leaky protection all season long.

I disagree here.  We didn't expect Gosder to have such a bad season, so who knows if the next guy will have a bad season as well.  I'm not convinced of Mewhort or Herremans' ability to play tackle (I don't know if Herremans ever played tackle in Philly, so he may have some good film at RT, but I've seen him mostly play guard and I think that's a difficult transition to make).  Our staff has put themselves/the team through leaky protection before (see: Harrison), so I don't know if we can go off of that.  We don't really have anything solid to go off of here, in my opinion.  Better than 2014 Cherilus doesn't really paint a pretty picture, seeing as how 2014 Cherilus was pretty bad.

 

2) It's unlikely that the center position will be so unsettled. I assume Holmes will be the guy, and while his protection isn't perfect, he showed a better combination of pre-snap awareness and post-snap mobility than anyone else who played this position last year. Even if he can't stay healthy, Harrison's 400+ plays and a full offseason should have him more prepared in 2015. 

Holmes has shown himself to be injury-prone.  I expect him to be the starter going into training camp, but he's had that before and ended up getting injured.  Harrison has shown me nothing to get me excited.

 

3) Luck will be better, for several reasons: Another year under his belt, better recognition of when to throw hot, better playcalling, etc. But bigger than anything else is a better, deeper receiving corps. It should be easier for guys to get open right away, especially against quick pressure, giving Luck somewhere to go with the ball. He's already a blitz killer, with 18 TDs and a 110.7 passer rating against the blitz; having a more rounded out and deeper complement of guys to throw to will help him tremendously.

That's unreal!  I do agree here, but I think it's important to note that when a QB gets the ball out of his hands quicker, that doesn't mean he'll take less hits.  Luck has shown a tendency to hold onto the ball too long at times, so there is room for improvement there.  But as we saw with Peyton, fewer sacks doesn't always mean few hits.

 

4) The big thing, tied to #3, is that Luck, like most QBs, is more efficient when he gets rid of the ball quickly. The problem is that, in 2014, Luck was 4th in the league in long-developing pass attempts, with 57.9% of his throws coming at least 2.6 seconds after the snap. Other metrics highlight the fact that Luck consistently has enough time to throw, and the bigger issue is either guys not getting open or him missing opportunities to get rid of the ball. Between Luck and Pep Hamilton getting better before the snap and the receivers being better at creating separation, there should be notable improvement here.

 

5) Going back to the actual line play, I believe that Hugh Thornton still has a chance to be a great lineman. Not just good, but great. The physical tools are all there. Between being shuffled between 3 different positions the past three years and having various injuries that have affected his movement and conditioning, he's been held back a little bit. As of last week, he's lost 12 pounds and is likely in better shape than in the past. He's only 24 this season. If he can stay healthy and well-conditioned, he has a chance to be our best offensive lineman, IMO.

I may be wrong here, but before his injury last year, I thought Thornton was actually doing really well.  However, to play Devil's advocate, there is limited play from him and a notable injury history.  That doesn't paint an optimistic picture.

 

6) We've added proven depth and will have lots of competition from LG over to RT. In a perfect world, Herremans and Reitz don't even start because Mewhort and Thornton hold down both guard spots and Cherilus bounces back and plays RT. But Herremans and Reitz can play three positions, and then there's still the fantasy of a healthy Donald Thomas. Even if we get rid of Cherilus and Thomas -- which I think we should -- we have several options still at RT and both guard spots, and none of them are bad. 

This is the biggest cause for optimism, in my opinion.  We've added quite a bit of depth.  If the coaches really do let it be an open competition in training camp and they give the best guy the starts, then I think the OL could be pretty solid.  We've also been connected to Evan Mathis, so if we could sign him, that would be a huge addition.

 

7) If there are significant injuries that weaken us along the interior, there are still several veteran linemen available out there, one of them being one of the best guards in the league over the past three seasons. So if push comes to shove, we can still supplement our stable of blockers.

 

All of these are reasons why I'm not worried about our pass protection. I think, more than anything, that better play from Luck and the receivers will take a lot of pressure off of the line to protect, and I think that the talent we have along the line will be better than it has been so far in the Luck era. I'm obviously being optimistic, but this is the time of year for optimism. Every team has bumps in the road from time to time, but I think there are plenty of reasons to believe that the protection will be solid, if not really good, in 2015.

 

/rant

A few things to finish off with.

1) You said ideally, Herremans wouldn't start.  Isn't Herremans coming off a few good seasons with the Eagles?  I thought he'd be in the mix for a starting spot.

2) I really wish we signed Barksdale.  If we had signed him, I'd be feeling very good about our OL.

3) What are your thoughts on Ben Heenan?  Do you think he can contribute?  He was the #1 overall pick and I think (with my limited knowledge on him) he could end up being the backup C and maybe even giving Holmes a push for the starting spot in a year or two.

4) Do you think Donald Thomas can contribute anything?

 

Good analysis!

[Track Guy]

Look at Seattle in the Super Bowl. Russell Wilson didn't complete a single pass until near half time. Once the run game was established things opened up, and he was very efficient. 

 

The Colts could take a page from their play book. If the run blocking can improve, the pass blocking will too.

[Superman]

For what it's worth, I don't disagree with you on all of these points, but I'm trying to act as Devil's advocate to some degree here for the sake of conversation.

 

A few things to finish off with.

1) You said ideally, Herremans wouldn't start.  Isn't Herremans coming off a few good seasons with the Eagles?  I thought he'd be in the mix for a starting spot.

2) I really wish we signed Barksdale.  If we had signed him, I'd be feeling very good about our OL.

3) What are your thoughts on Ben Heenan?  Do you think he can contribute?  He was the #1 overall pick and I think (with my limited knowledge on him) he could end up being the backup C and maybe even giving Holmes a push for the starting spot in a year or two.

4) Do you think Donald Thomas can contribute anything?

 

Good analysis!

 

Gosder was hurt all year, and we really didn't have anyone behind him to step in. Reitz and Nixon were both hurt at the beginning of the season. And my thinking is that Gosder isn't going to play well through injury, based on last year's performance, and so I'm assuming the staff will feel the same way and give him a shorter leash (if he's even on the roster). Having other options -- Mewhort, Reitz, Herremans, John(?) -- makes it easier to do so. This is entirely a projection, but I don't see it as far-fetched at all that we wouldn't deal with poor play from Gosder if we don't have to.

 

Nothing to say about Holmes, but he doesn't have serious lingering injury issues (like Gosder). I don't even think it's fair to say he's injury prone, seeing as how a 300 pounder fell on his leg (not too many people can come away unscathed from that). What he did show is that he doesn't bounce back quickly from injury, and we all know that getting hurt is a matter of course for a trench player in the NFL. We'll see, but assuming he's on the field, he's definitely better at identifying and picking up blitzers than Shipley and Harrison were.

 

I'm not sure what you mean about Manning. He got hit far less than Luck has so far in his career, and that's primarily because he got rid of the ball quickly. Even when there's been rough patches -- like in 2010 -- he was still pressured less than any other QB in the league, aside from Jon Kitna. Fewer sacks doesn't mean fewer hits, but getting rid of the ball faster means fewer pressures. Really though, my point was to highlight that sometimes, it's not the protection, it's the QB/WR connection that's lacking. Which illustrates why improving the receiving corps will be so beneficial for us. (Point of reference: Luck had more time on average in the Pats playoff game than he did over the course of the season, and took longer to throw, but receivers weren't open. The line wasn't worse, the receiving was worse / coverage was better.)

 

On Thornton, unlike Holmes, he plays through injury. Maybe not well... but if we can lock him into just one position and if he can stay healthy and well conditioned, I think we'll see him start to shine. Physically and mentally, there are no warts to his game. He just gets sloppy at times. If he and Holmes can stay on the field together, they'll develop some chemistry, and both will continue to play better. I'm obviously being optimistic here; either of them could completely fall off and be terrible, but I don't think there's any basis to believe that will happen.

 

I don't think we're going to sign Mathis, not unless something significant changes in the next few weeks (like Cherilus or Thomas or both are released, or someone gets hurt). Holder wrote a piece last week detailing what he thinks the Colts are thinking, and it's basically they think they're better off now and long term developing the players they have. I'd still like to have Mathis, but I get it.

 

Herremans has played RT. He started a game there last year, and in 2011 and 2012 it was his primary position. He's versatile. I wanted Barksdale, also, especially as he lingered on the market. I know nothing about Ben Heenan, and I'm not putting any hope in him; if he does something, it will be a happy bonus. Same for Donald Thomas, who I think should have been released already.

 

Good thoughts.

[21isSuperman]

Gosder was hurt all year, and we really didn't have anyone behind him to step in. Reitz and Nixon were both hurt at the beginning of the season. And my thinking is that Gosder isn't going to play well through injury, based on last year's performance, and so I'm assuming the staff will feel the same way and give him a shorter leash (if he's even on the roster). Having other options -- Mewhort, Reitz, Herremans, John(?) -- makes it easier to do so. This is entirely a projection, but I don't see it as far-fetched at all that we wouldn't deal with poor play from Gosder if we don't have to.

 

Nothing to say about Holmes, but he doesn't have serious lingering injury issues (like Gosder). I don't even think it's fair to say he's injury prone, seeing as how a 300 pounder fell on his leg (not too many people can come away unscathed from that). What he did show is that he doesn't bounce back quickly from injury, and we all know that getting hurt is a matter of course for a trench player in the NFL. We'll see, but assuming he's on the field, he's definitely better at identifying and picking up blitzers than Shipley and Harrison were.

 

I'm not sure what you mean about Manning. He got hit far less than Luck has so far in his career, and that's primarily because he got rid of the ball quickly. Even when there's been rough patches -- like in 2010 -- he was still pressured less than any other QB in the league, aside from Jon Kitna. Fewer sacks doesn't mean fewer hits, but getting rid of the ball faster means fewer pressures. Really though, my point was to highlight that sometimes, it's not the protection, it's the QB/WR connection that's lacking. Which illustrates why improving the receiving corps will be so beneficial for us. (Point of reference: Luck had more time on average in the Pats playoff game than he did over the course of the season, and took longer to throw, but receivers weren't open. The line wasn't worse, the receiving was worse / coverage was better.)

 

On Thornton, unlike Holmes, he plays through injury. Maybe not well... but if we can lock him into just one position and if he can stay healthy and well conditioned, I think we'll see him start to shine. Physically and mentally, there are no warts to his game. He just gets sloppy at times. If he and Holmes can stay on the field together, they'll develop some chemistry, and both will continue to play better. I'm obviously being optimistic here; either of them could completely fall off and be terrible, but I don't think there's any basis to believe that will happen.

 

I don't think we're going to sign Mathis, not unless something significant changes in the next few weeks (like Cherilus or Thomas or both are released, or someone gets hurt). Holder wrote a piece last week detailing what he thinks the Colts are thinking, and it's basically they think they're better off now and long term developing the players they have. I'd still like to have Mathis, but I get it.

 

Herremans has played RT. He started a game there last year, and in 2011 and 2012 it was his primary position. He's versatile. I wanted Barksdale, also, especially as he lingered on the market. I know nothing about Ben Heenan, and I'm not putting any hope in him; if he does something, it will be a happy bonus. Same for Donald Thomas, who I think should have been released already.

 

Good thoughts.

Thanks for the info!  From what I recall, the OL played really well in the playoffs.  I don't recall a lot of pressure on Luck in the Bengals or Broncos games, and you said yourself that the OL played well in the Pats game.

 

Just to clarify, my point about Manning was that he didn't take many sacks, but he still got hit a lot.  He would throw the ball quickly, but the pass rushers were already in the motion of hitting him because of the porous offensive line.  Perhaps I'm remembering incorrectly.

 

Overall, I think we have a lot of questions on the OL, but we have a lot of potential answers as well.  I'm not quite sold on the OL because, as I said, they're potential answers and we don't know exactly how it will play how (eg. how will Herremans do under our coaching/in our system, how will Thornton be this year, will Holmes be able to stay healthy, etc.).  With that said, I think we've brought in quite a few guys and if we're able to stay healthy, we could have a really solid OL

[Superman]

Thanks for the info!  From what I recall, the OL played really well in the playoffs.  I don't recall a lot of pressure on Luck in the Bengals or Broncos games, and you said yourself that the OL played well in the Pats game.

 

Just to clarify, my point about Manning was that he didn't take many sacks, but he still got hit a lot.  He would throw the ball quickly, but the pass rushers were already in the motion of hitting him because of the porous offensive line.  Perhaps I'm remembering incorrectly.

 

Overall, I think we have a lot of questions on the OL, but we have a lot of potential answers as well.  I'm not quite sold on the OL because, as I said, they're potential answers and we don't know exactly how it will play how (eg. how will Herremans do under our coaching/in our system, how will Thornton be this year, will Holmes be able to stay healthy, etc.).  With that said, I think we've brought in quite a few guys and if we're able to stay healthy, we could have a really solid OL

 

The line played okay in the Pats game; I wouldn't say well, since they couldn't generate anything in the run game.

 

I don't think Manning got hit a lot; I think he did a good job of avoiding pressures by getting rid of the ball, and it was even more important for him because he doesn't have mobility. I don't expect Luck to be like Manning anymore than I expect Manning to be like Luck, but we all know Luck sometimes holds on to the ball too long.

 

To me, the issues with protection are less of a concern for me than the run blocking. That's what really needs improvement, and I'm not as confident there as I am with pass blocking.

[Carlos Danger]

I don't have the numbers but, if memory serves, Manning didn't't get hit "a lot" per se.

What happened was, when he played poorly, especially in stretches, you'd start to see graphics during the games and on espn about how many times he'd been hit over that stretch.

I think it's because the sack numbers were still low, even in games where #18 struggled, which left the stats guys at the networks struggling for easily digested answers... The narrative (however true) was that the way to get to Manning was to hit him... regardless of whether you get the sack...

That, and the endless "time of possession graphics...

[PeterBowman]

I'm more concerned with the run blocking than I am with the pass blocking.  That is the area I feel most insecure about, however I'm expecting things to be better with us having more capable runners this year. Hopefully the guard play will be improved as well.  I think we'll do fine with the pass blocking overall.

having a competent running back (Gore) should help that too

 

but I agree, the pass blocking really isn't that bad