Can't complain about TY's B/R ranking

[The Peytonator]

A lot of you guys had some disagreement about Fleener's ranking, but I don't think many of you would think TY's being short changed.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2484510-br-nfl-1000-ranking-the-top-100-wide-receivers-from-2014/page/55

 

Ranked ahead of Megatron.....and some people still don't think he's a true #1 receiver.

[Defjamz26]

People have been sleeping on him for some time now, but he seems to be waking people up (I know the Texans DC doesn't get any sleep). People forget 88 was only like 175 too.

[bestQBever]

I will however complain about antonio browns ranking. He's easily the #1 receiver in the game, and had the best 2014 out of all of those people.

[PuntersArePeopleToo]

I will however complain about antonio browns ranking. He's easily the #1 receiver in the game, and had the best 2014 out of all of those people.

I do have to agree with that. Last season he was the best receiver

[Gavin]

A legit case can be made that Beckham would have easily surpassed Browns numbers had Beckham started a full 16 games like Brown did. Beckham came within 1 TD and 393 yards of tying Brown all while starting 5 less games...Beckham also was targeted 50 less times then Brown

[southwest1]

"Hilton is a brilliant route-runner, showing the quickness to beat coverage underneath and the mixture of speed and body control to win battles going down the field." 

 

Love this line on TY. He's great with the underneath got move the chains 1st downs too. A lot like WR Wes Welker used to do in his prime too. 

 

Nice to see you posting again Peytonator. 

[Bubbz]

T.Y is not better than Calvin Johnson or AJ Green

[USAFHoosier]

T.Y is not better than Calvin Johnson or AJ Green

Last years stats wer better than Megatrons or Greens. They have been better overal but last year TY was better.

[Bubbz]

Last years stats wer better than Megatrons or Greens. They have been better overal but last year TY was better.

True, but in terms of Talent he is not anywhere near as good. No gm in the league would take hilton over either of those 2. You also have to take into account Hilton has Luck throwing to him as opposed to Dalton and Stafford. I don't think the poll was supposed to be based off of who had the best stats that year.

Also I don't think it's accurate to say TY was better than CJ last year. Maybe higher stats, but when you just say "better" that could mean many things including he was more talented last year and that is simply not accurate

[Gavin]

True, but in terms of Talent he is not anywhere near as good. No gm in the league would take hilton over either of those 2. You also have to take into account Hilton has Luck throwing to him as opposed to Dalton and Stafford. I don't think the poll was supposed to be based off of who had the best stats that year.

Also I don't think it's accurate to say TY was better than CJ last year. Maybe higher stats, but when you just say "better" that could mean many things including he was more talented last year and that is simply not accurate

At the end of the day its about production not talent, Tons of players have talent but not all produce, At the end of the day TY was better then Johnson last year. Also Stafford has 4200+ yards passing every year except his rookie year. Dalton also was missing his #1 and #2 wr's last year in a new scheme and based on Daltons past production I think its fair to say that while Dalton had a bad year last year its not likely going to be the normal with him going forward

[Bubbz]

At the end of the day its about production not talent, Tons of players have talent but not all produce, At the end of the day TY was better then Johnson last year. Also Stafford has 4200+ yards passing every year except his rookie year. Dalton also was missing his #1 and #2 wr's last year in a new scheme and based on Daltons past production I think its fair to say that while Dalton had a bad year last year its not likely going to be the normal with him going forward

Irregardless dalton and stafford are not luck. If the list is about who had the most production then it's wrong as well. Be philosophically consistent. The list is best wide receivers. Not best stats and best production of 14. If production was what was supposed to be reflected in the list it's also very wrong

[CanuckColt]

It will be interesting to see how T.Y. does catching passes from guys like Dalton after this year.

[Jason_]

At the end of the day its about production not talent, Tons of players have talent but not all produce, At the end of the day TY was better then Johnson last year. Also Stafford has 4200+ yards passing every year except his rookie year. Dalton also was missing his #1 and #2 wr's last year in a new scheme and based on Daltons past production I think its fair to say that while Dalton had a bad year last year its not likely going to be the normal with him going forward

 

Do you really think that TY had the same amount of coverage sent his way as Calvin Johnson last year?  TY may have outproduced Megatron but that doesn't mean TY is or was the better receiver.  Come on now.

[Gavin]

Do you really think that TY had the same amount of coverage sent his way as Calvin Johnson last year?  TY may have outproduced Megatron but that doesn't mean TY is or was the better receiver.  Come on now.

Raw physical talent no Hilton is not better then Johnson but Hilton still had the better year in total yards receiving by 268 yards, Johnson did miss 3 games  to TY's 1 game but Hilton still only had 2 more targets on the season despite that, Now based on Johnsons 9.8 targets a game (128 targets divided by 13 games played) and Johnsons 5.4 receptions per game Johnson likely ends up with 86(he ended up with 71 with 3 games missed) receptions (on 160 targets based on his 10 a game)......with Johnson averaged 83 yards a game which would bring his season total to 1326 total yards receiving

 

Hilton was targeted 8.6 times per game (9 rounding up) in 15 games played....so add 9 more targets to Hiltons 130 total if he would have played a full 16 games. That's 30 less targets then Johnson (Hilton also gets doubled plenty)...Hilton had 1345 yards receiving (89.6 yards a game...by now you see where this is going Im going to assume)....So add  90 more yards (based on his average a game) to his 1345.....1435 yards to Johnson 1326 with what we know based on what they averaged

 

Hilton had the better year and was on pace to do so even if they both played 16 games....Talent is great and Johnson very well could be the most talented wr in the game and at times the most dominant but the NFL is a production business...Hiltons first 3 years have actually been even better then Johnsons with the exception of Johnson having 2 more td's through his first 3 years (With Hilton starting 14 less games then Johnson his first 3 years)

 

Long winded way of saying both players are talented but Hiltons stacks up even better in production then Johnson through 3 years. Also I know Johnson had 1964 yards in 2012....on 205 targets...Imagine what Hilton would have done if he was targeted 205 times last year when Hilton was only 619 yards away on 72 less targets

 

None of this is to say Hilton is better because I don't believe that to be the case once you take into account Johnsons ability to out physical Corners which Hilton can struggle with...But again production trumps all through Hiltons first 3 years

[ColtsLegacy]

Irregardless dalton and stafford are not luck. If the list is about who had the most production then it's wrong as well. Be philosophically consistent. The list is best wide receivers. Not best stats and best production of 14. If production was what was supposed to be reflected in the list it's also very wrong

The list is best receivers of '14. It can be argued Hilton was better than Johnson in '14. Nobody would argue Hilton is a better/more talented receiver than Johnson in general.

[Jason_]

Raw physical talent no Hilton is not better then Johnson but Hilton still had the better year in total yards receiving by 268 yards, Johnson did miss 3 games  to TY's 1 game but Hilton still only had 2 more targets on the season despite that, Now based on Johnsons 9.8 targets a game (128 targets divided by 13 games played) and Johnsons 5.4 receptions per game Johnson likely ends up with 86(he ended up with 71 with 3 games missed) receptions (on 160 targets based on his 10 a game)......with Johnson averaged 83 yards a game which would bring his season total to 1326 total yards receiving

 

Hilton was targeted 8.6 times per game (9 rounding up) in 15 games played....so add 9 more targets to Hiltons 130 total if he would have played a full 16 games. That's 30 less targets then Johnson (Hilton also gets doubled plenty)...Hilton had 1345 yards receiving (89.6 yards a game...by now you see where this is going Im going to assume)....So add  90 more yards (based on his average a game) to his 1345.....1435 yards to Johnson 1326 with what we know based on what they averaged

 

Hilton had the better year and was on pace to do so even if they both played 16 games....Talent is great and Johnson very well could be the most talented wr in the game and at times the most dominant but the NFL is a production business...Hiltons first 3 years have actually been even better then Johnsons with the exception of Johnson having 2 more td's through his first 3 years (With Hilton starting 14 less games then Johnson his first 3 years)

 

Long winded way of saying both players are talented but Hiltons stacks up even better in production then Johnson through 3 years. Also I know Johnson had 1964 yards in 2012....on 205 targets...Imagine what Hilton would have done if he was targeted 205 times last year when Hilton was only 619 yards away on 72 less targets

 

None of this is to say Hilton is better because I don't believe that to be the case once you take into account Johnsons ability to out physical Corners which Hilton can struggle with...But again production trumps all through Hiltons first 3 years

 

 

 

All of that was a long-winded way of saying that Hilton put up better stats than Megatron.  That's fantastic and  all but that still does not mean that Hilton is, or even was, the better WR.

 

At the end of the day TY was better then Johnson last year.

 

 

That ^ is the part I disagree with.  Just because Hilton had a statistically better year does not mean he was the better player.  Give Hilton the same type of coverage that Megatron gets from week to week and I'd be surprised if Hilton could top 40 catches over the course of a year.

[Gavin]

 

All of that was a long-winded way of saying that Hilton put up better stats than Megatron.  That's fantastic and  all but that still does not mean that Hilton is, or even was, the better WR.

 

 

That ^ is the part I disagree with.  Just because Hilton had a statistically better year does not mean he was the better player.  Give Hilton the same type of coverage that Megatron gets from week to week and I'd be surprised if Hilton could top 40 catches over the course of a year.

Hilton bracketed alot

[Jason_]

Hilton bracketed alot

 

[Gavin]

doubled with a Safety over the top

[Jason_]

doubled with a Safety over the top

 

I know what bracketed means in terms of coverage.  Just didn't know if that was all of what you'd meant to post.  So, are you now saying that Hilton gets the same attention in coverage on a consistent basis as Calvin Johnson?  Come on man...Hilton isn't in Calvin's ball park and no amount of statistical manipulating is going to change that.  Hilton had a more productive year, statistically speaking, than Calvin did in 2014.  Hilton was NOT a better WR in 2014 than Calvin Johnson.  TY Hilton absolutely could not carry an offense the way Calvin has done for years.  I don't really see much wiggle room for any of those points to be argued. 

[Gavin]

I know what bracketed means in terms of coverage.  Just didn't know if that was all of what you'd meant to post.  So, are you now saying that Hilton gets the same attention in coverage on a consistent basis as Calvin Johnson?  Come on man...Hilton isn't in Calvin's ball park and no amount of statistical manipulating is going to change that.  Hilton had a more productive year, statistically speaking, than Calvin did in 2014.  Hilton was NOT a better WR in 2014 than Calvin Johnson.  TY Hilton absolutely could not carry an offense the way Calvin has done for years.  I don't really see much wiggle room for any of those points to be argued. 

Of course Hilton cant but he is also only going into his 4th year, I don't have statistics to say who gets what amount of coverage like I said so I cant make that argument and wont try. Also I didn't manipulate any stats, They were all legit, Of course Hilton was better in 2014, I mean ya cant just say Johnson had a better year based on reputation or that you think he got doubled more and make it a good debate

[Jason_]

Of course Hilton cant but he is also only going into his 4th year, I don't have statistics to say who gets what amount of coverage like I said so I cant make that argument and wont try. Also I didn't manipulate any stats, They were all legit, Of course Hilton was better in 2014, I mean ya cant just say Johnson had a better year based on reputation or that you think he got doubled more and make it a good debate

 

It's just as valid an argument as saying that Hilton's stats were better so he must have been the better WR.

[ColtsFanMikeC]

A lot of you guys had some disagreement about Fleener's ranking, but I don't think many of you would think TY's being short changed.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2484510-br-nfl-1000-ranking-the-top-100-wide-receivers-from-2014/page/55

 

Ranked ahead of Megatron.....and some people still don't think he's a true #1 receiver.

 

I am still a bit skeptical about TY as a number 1.  I am a big TY fan, and really root for him and like watching him play.

 

That said -- in 2013, he had 2 big games right after Reggie was hurt (7 catches for 121 and 3 TDs versus Houston the next week, then 7 catches for 130 and 0 TDs against St. Louis the following week), after that he didn't score a TD for the rest of the season and his stat lines were 5 for 44, 5 for 38, 5 for 37, 2 for 7, 8 for 78, 5 for 52, and then he went off for 11 for 152 in the last game vs. a terrible Jacksonville.  While his catch numbers were pretty solid his yards went way down (other than Jax game) after teams realized he was our number 1 weapon.  Prior to Reggie's injury he had a 5 catch for 124 yard game and a 5 catch for 140 and 2 TD game.  This leads me to believe, teams can limit his ability to take the top off the defense when TY is their main threat.

 

In 2014, TY started the year with games of 5, 6, 5, 6, 9, 9, 7 receptions prior to Reggie getting hurt in Cincinatti game.  After Reggie was hurt and slowed down, TY's numbers went 6, 3, 3, 4, 5, 10, 4, 0.  Again, without a legitimate WR threat on the field, the eye test and statistics suggest TY's numbers reduce.

 

With Andre Johnson, Moncrief, Dorsett, and Carter, I don't think teams will be able to just focus on TY, which should allow for him to consistently be that big play threat, but may lead to lower numbers due to the ball being spread around.  While I like TY a lot, he will have to show me that he can put up numbers as consistently when he is the 'sole threat' as he can when he has someone taking some heat off him before I am willing to say he's a true bonafide #1 WR in this league.  Guys like O'Dell Beckham and Megatron, who have week in and week out played as by far the biggest threat on their team and don't have numbers decline or consistency issues are who I consider #1's.  TY, so far, has not shown he can consistently produce and make big plays when he doesn't have a threat (i.e., Reggie) alongside him.

[Gavin]

It's just as valid an argument as saying that Hilton's stats were better so he must have been the better WR.

No, My argument or debate is based on fact, your end of the debate is based on assumption based on reputation

[Jason_]

No, My argument or debate is based on fact, your end of the debate is based on assumption based on reputation

 

No, your argument is based on stats, not facts.  Stats do not tell the whole story.  They never do.  You should be smarter than this.

[Gavin]

No, your argument is based on stats, not facts.  Stats do not tell the whole story.  They never do.  You should be smarter than this.

I am smarter then that of course...Like I said we both agree Johnson is the better wr but outside of Coby last year Hilton pretty well carried the offense along with Luck, Johnson has plenty of help with Golden Tate......Stats are facts by the way, though of course they don't tell the whole story

[Jason_]

I am smarter then that of course...Like I said we both agree Johnson is the better wr but outside of Coby last year Hilton pretty well carried the offense along with Luck, Johnson has plenty of help with Golden Tate......Stats are facts by the way, though of course they don't tell the whole story

 

 

[ColtsFanMikeC]

I am still a bit skeptical about TY as a number 1.  I am a big TY fan, and really root for him and like watching him play.

 

That said -- in 2013, he had 2 big games right after Reggie was hurt (7 catches for 121 and 3 TDs versus Houston the next week, then 7 catches for 130 and 0 TDs against St. Louis the following week), after that he didn't score a TD for the rest of the season and his stat lines were 5 for 44, 5 for 38, 5 for 37, 2 for 7, 8 for 78, 5 for 52, and then he went off for 11 for 152 in the last game vs. a terrible Jacksonville.  While his catch numbers were pretty solid his yards went way down (other than Jax game) after teams realized he was our number 1 weapon.  Prior to Reggie's injury he had a 5 catch for 124 yard game and a 5 catch for 140 and 2 TD game.  This leads me to believe, teams can limit his ability to take the top off the defense when TY is their main threat.

 

In 2014, TY started the year with games of 5, 6, 5, 6, 9, 9, 7 receptions prior to Reggie getting hurt in Cincinatti game.  After Reggie was hurt and slowed down, TY's numbers went 6, 3, 3, 4, 5, 10, 4, 0.  Again, without a legitimate WR threat on the field, the eye test and statistics suggest TY's numbers reduce.

 

With Andre Johnson, Moncrief, Dorsett, and Carter, I don't think teams will be able to just focus on TY, which should allow for him to consistently be that big play threat, but may lead to lower numbers due to the ball being spread around.  While I like TY a lot, he will have to show me that he can put up numbers as consistently when he is the 'sole threat' as he can when he has someone taking some heat off him before I am willing to say he's a true bonafide #1 WR in this league.  Guys like O'Dell Beckham and Megatron, who have week in and week out played as by far the biggest threat on their team and don't have numbers decline or consistency issues are who I consider #1's.  TY, so far, has not shown he can consistently produce and make big plays when he doesn't have a threat (i.e., Reggie) alongside him.

 

 

I am smarter then that of course...Like I said we both agree Johnson is the better wr but outside of Coby last year Hilton pretty well carried the offense along with Luck, Johnson has plenty of help with Golden Tate......Stats are facts by the way, though of course they don't tell the whole story

 

See my post from above -- TY, when he didn't have Reggie or when he had an injured Reggie the last 2 years became less productive and more inconsistent.

 

Last from game 1 thru the first 6 games, because game 7 vs. Cincy is when Reggie tweaked his elbow (the point at which he never looked the same again) he had:

 

34 receptions (5.67 receptions per game, which would have had him end the year with 90 or 91 receptions at that pace, or 419 yards which is 69.8 yds/game and projects to 1117.3 yards on the season, which is a pretty damn good season).

 

During that time, TY had 40 receptions (6.67 per game or 106.67 for the year and 604 yards, 100.67 yds/game or 1610.67 per the year, also a damn good season).  After Reggie got hurt, TY had 42 receptions in 9 games (4.67 per game or what would project to be 74.7 catches per the year and he averaged 82.3 yards per game which would be 1317.3 yards per the year, the yards are good there still, but his yards per game went down and his reception total projected across the year is not very impressive for a #1 WR).

 

I'm not trying to take anything away from TY, but it is clear that over the past 2 years, he is much more consistent and does better when he has a real threat next to him.  Not for nothing, but 74 catches from a #1 WR is really not very good.  Give him a threat and he projected to have 107 catches, which is damn good. 

 

True #1 WR's like O'Dell Beckham and Megatron don't see that big production decline when they are the primary focus for a defense to stop, it is obvious TY's numbers go down on average when he is the primary focus of the defense.  Granted, TY is still young, so with some improved route running and with new threats on our offense and a possibility of having a run game, TY shouldn't have trouble getting open.  However, there is a chance A. Johnson, Dorsett, Moncrief, and other weapons might reduce TY's stat line.

[antipatriot]

T.Y is not better than Calvin Johnson or AJ Green

Agree I am a Colts fan through and through but I really think T.Y. is overrated, just like Ballard is/was and so on.  I think he is top 20.  I remember when Garcon was the darling of this forum.

 

I love TY and I think we have probably the best receiving corp in the leak especially when you consider our excellent tight end depth making them so much better ( I kind of consider the TE position just another WR these days ).

 

I think we will be very dangerous this year and TY will be a huge part of that but I also think in a different system with a different QB he would be average kind of like DeSean Jackson.

 

We have had many overrated WR`s over the years ( remember when Blair White was a fantasy darling ) I think TY is extremely talented but he is no Calvin, AJ,Julio, or Nelson etc.

 

Blast me if you will but reality is what it is just watch the games  

[ColtsLegacy]

Agree I am a Colts fan through and through but I really think T.Y. is overrated, just like Ballard is/was and so on. I think he is top 20. I remember when Garcon was the darling of this forum.

I love TY and I think we have probably the best receiving corp in the leak especially when you consider our excellent tight end depth making them so much better ( I kind of consider the TE position just another WR these days ).

I think we will be very dangerous this year and TY will be a huge part of that but I also think in a different system with a different QB he would be average kind of like DeSean Jackson.

We have had many overrated WR`s over the years ( remember when Blair White was a fantasy darling ) I think TY is extremely talented but he is no Calvin, AJ,Julio, or Nelson etc.

Blast me if you will but reality is what it is just watch the games

Hilton may be a little overrated right now by some because he's coming off of a great season but you seem to be going the other way by heavily underrating him. And you're using ridiculous comparisons to boot.

Garçon was never even close to the player Hilton has been for the Colts and fans had a real love/hate relationship with him due to his inconsistency, drops, and lack of a route tree. That being said Garçon was and still is a good WR, but there's no comparison between Hilton and him. And, Blair White? , what?

Ballard, too. Another head scratcher of a comparison. Hilton has way out produced his expectations since his rookie season and progressed significantly each year. Whereas, Ballard was a pretty good RB for half a season before getting injured 2 years in a row.

[Dustin]

It's just as valid an argument as saying that Hilton's stats were better so he must have been the better WR.

No it isn't. One is based on objective analysis and the other is you using buzzterms about how "he faced harder coverages" even though you likely didn't watch a single Lions game last year.

[Jason_]

No it isn't. One is based on objective analysis and the other is you using buzzterms about how "he faced harder coverages" even though you likely didn't watch a single Lions game last year.

I disagree with your use of the word objective. I also think you'd be hard pressed to find more than a handful of people that would say they would rather have 2014 TY Hilton than 2014 Calvin Johnson if cost weren't an issue.

[Toe Toed Sloth]

I disagree with your use of the word objective. I also think you'd be hard pressed to find more than a handful of people that would say they would rather have 2014 TY Hilton than 2014 Calvin Johnson if cost weren't an issue.

 

Like for just 2014? I would've taken TY because he was healthy.  

 

For funzies(and to feed your anger): If you were told that you could have either one at the same price for the next 5 years which one would you pick? 

 

I honestly think the answer here is probably TY. He's 25 versus Johnson being 29(soon to be 30). 

[ty4atd]

See my post from above -- TY, when he didn't have Reggie or when he had an injured Reggie the last 2 years became less productive and more inconsistent.

 

Last from game 1 thru the first 6 games, because game 7 vs. Cincy is when Reggie tweaked his elbow (the point at which he never looked the same again) he had:

 

34 receptions (5.67 receptions per game, which would have had him end the year with 90 or 91 receptions at that pace, or 419 yards which is 69.8 yds/game and projects to 1117.3 yards on the season, which is a pretty damn good season).

 

During that time, TY had 40 receptions (6.67 per game or 106.67 for the year and 604 yards, 100.67 yds/game or 1610.67 per the year, also a damn good season).  After Reggie got hurt, TY had 42 receptions in 9 games (4.67 per game or what would project to be 74.7 catches per the year and he averaged 82.3 yards per game which would be 1317.3 yards per the year, the yards are good there still, but his yards per game went down and his reception total projected across the year is not very impressive for a #1 WR).

 

I'm not trying to take anything away from TY, but it is clear that over the past 2 years, he is much more consistent and does better when he has a real threat next to him.  Not for nothing, but 74 catches from a #1 WR is really not very good.  Give him a threat and he projected to have 107 catches, which is damn good. 

 

 

 

That's if you're including the Tennessee game where he only played half of the game on got 0 catches on 3 targets, a clear outlier. Without that game Hiltons last 8 games his numbers were 42 catches for 741 yards and 6 TDS, which over a 16 game year is 84 catches for 1482 yards and 12 TDs, so he still preformed without Reggie being a threat. In the second half of the season the only games Hilton didn't have at least 50 yards were against the Titans, which played half the game, and both games against the Patriots. Based on that its much more clear that he's still a consistent threat to everyone but Revis.

 

That was the case in 2013 as well Reggie played 7 games Hilton's numbers were 27 catches 412 yards and 2 TDs, on pace for 62 catches 942 yards and 4 TDs, in the 9 games after his numbers are 55 catches 671 yards and 3 TDs, on pace for 97 catches 1193 yards and 5 TDs over 16 games, again Hilton thrived as the #1.

[Dustin]

I disagree with your use of the word objective. I also think you'd be hard pressed to find more than a handful of people that would say they would rather have 2014 TY Hilton than 2014 Calvin Johnson if cost weren't an issue.

 

Irrelevant. Statistical analysis is at it's heart purely objective. Whether TY had a better season than CJ or not is irrelevant.

 

The fact is that any form of statistical analysis is worth more than saying "hur he got double teemed more" 

[ColtsFanMikeC]

That's if you're including the Tennessee game where he only played half of the game on got 0 catches on 3 targets, a clear outlier. Without that game Hiltons last 8 games his numbers were 42 catches for 741 yards and 6 TDS, which over a 16 game year is 84 catches for 1482 yards and 12 TDs, so he still preformed without Reggie being a threat. In the second half of the season the only games Hilton didn't have at least 50 yards were against the Titans, which played half the game, and both games against the Patriots. Based on that its much more clear that he's still a consistent threat to everyone but Revis.

 

That was the case in 2013 as well Reggie played 7 games Hilton's numbers were 27 catches 412 yards and 2 TDs, on pace for 62 catches 942 yards and 4 TDs, in the 9 games after his numbers are 55 catches 671 yards and 3 TDs, on pace for 97 catches 1193 yards and 5 TDs over 16 games, again Hilton thrived as the #1.

 

Your math is wrong, if you remove the 0 catch game, he would be on pace for 80 catches, not 84.  Against TN, he played half a game and had 0 catches -- he wasn't hurt or anything, he just didn't have any catches.  It is fair to keep that in there.  Even if not, 80 catches compared to 106 catches is a pretty major drop.  If you want to talk removing outliers, the only game he had more than 6 catches (10 catches for 150 yards and 2 TDs vs. Cleveland) should also be removed.  In that case, he would have totaled 67 receptions, 1291 yards, and 10-11 TDs.  67 receptions for a #1 WR is pretty darn terrible.

 

If you want to talk about removing outliers, then the 11 catch 152 yard performance vs. Jacksonsville in 2013 should be removed, as well.  In that case, 2013 he would be on pace for 88 catches without Reggie.  Also, notice other than the first 2 games after Reggie went down, he was having games like 5 catches for 44 yards, 5 catches for 38 yards, 5 catches for 46 yards, 2 catches for 7 yards, 8 catches for 78 yards, 5 catches for 52 yards (over 10 yards per catch), and then his outlier in Jacksonville (the 5th worst defense in the league, playing for a shot at the number 1 draft pick) where he had 11 catches for 152 yards (over 10 yards per catch).  In the 9 games without Reggie, 4 were averaging over 10 yards per catch -- 2 of them, I would argue, were when he wasn't recognized as a threat and was not being treated like such.  Once teams figured that out, he was minimized for 5 straight games to under 10 yards per catch.  With Reggie in the line-up, he had 4 of 7 games with over 10 yards per catch, 2 of which were averaging over 20 yards per catch.  In 2013, when Reggie went down, after Dwayne Allen went down, the only threats on our roster were literally TY and Fleener -- TY was very inconsistent with no Reggie, but one should expect his numbers to be very much inflated without him, as who else was Luck going to try to throw to -- Darrius Heyward-Bey???

 

 

TY is a good receiver.  When he has been known to be our biggest threat and doesn't have someone to take some heat off him, he is not very consistent.  Until he can show that consistency week in and week out, I'll remain skeptical about him being a true #1 WR.  He is young in his career, so that may change given another year or 2, but from what he has shown so far, he is much better when he isn't asked to do it by himself.  Take someone like O'Dell Beckham or Calvin Johnson (true #1's), who receive more attention than TY week in and week out, and they put up far more consistent numbers (ODB Jr. was a rookie who didn't play a full year last year, so that might be an unfair comparison, but he constantly received double or triple team coverage after 'The Catch' and put up far more consistent numbers than TY, with a lesser QB and team).

[Jason_]

Irrelevant. Statistical analysis is at it's heart purely objective. Whether TY had a better season than CJ or not is irrelevant.

The fact is that any form of statistical analysis is worth more than saying "hur he got double teemed more"

Statistics themselves are objective. Statistical analysis....not so much. And if you'd like to try to make the argument that teams fear Hilton as much as they fear Megatron then by all means, feel free. Cause, derp, Hilton did mur reseevin and he scurred moor so he mussa bin da bedda reseever derp.

[Gavin]

Statistics themselves are objective. Statistical analysis....not so much. And if you'd like to try to make the argument that teams fear Hilton as much as they fear Megatron then by all means, feel free. Cause, derp, Hilton did mur reseevin and he scurred moor so he mussa bin da bedda reseever derp.

What I did was a statistical analysis based on his averages per game, I've been waiting for your statistics from last year on how much Johnson was doubled vs Hilton

[Jason_]

What I did was a statistical analysis based on his averages per game, I've been waiting for your statistics from last year on how much Johnson was doubled vs Hilton

 

I know what you did.  My point has always been that Hilton having better statistical averages per game does not mean he was the better player.  Call him the more productive player if you want, but that does not mean he was the better player.  Are we next going to talk about how Nick Foles was the best QB in all of football in 2013? 

 

Oh, and have fun waiting.

[Dustin]

What I did was a statistical analysis based on his averages per game, I've been waiting for your statistics from last year on how much Johnson was doubled vs Hilton

He doesn't have any. He just made it up and hoped nobody called him out on it.