Pre-camp roster projections

[Superman]

Setting aside major roster changes and/or injuries, this is my thinking. The players listed below all have a 75% or better chance of making the final 53 man roster. Many of them are locks, others are highly likely to be on the team. In italics are guys I'm on the fence about, but more confident than not that they'll be on the team.

 

QB: Luck, Hasselbeck

RB: Gore, Herron, Robinson

WR: Hilton, A. Johnson, Moncrief, Dorsett, Carter

TE: Allen, Fleener, Doyle

OL: Castonzo, Mewhort, Holmes, Herremans, Reitz, Thornton, Harrison, Cherilus, Thomas

DL: Chapman, Jones, Langford, Anderson, Hughes, Parry

OLB: Cole, Werner, Walden, Newsome, (Mathis on PUP)

ILB: Freeman, Jackson, Irving, Herrera, Muamba

CB: Davis, Toler, Butler, Smith

S: Adams, Lowery, Geathers, Anderson

ST: Vinatieri, McAfee, Overton

 

That's 48 spots, plus Mathis. I only think 10 of them are even really debatable. Cherilus and Thomas have to be healthy, and if it were me, I'd drop both of them today and sign Evan Mathis. Almost anything can happen in camp, but given the investments and the projections for most of these guys, I think this is a fair projection.

 

By my numbers, we're going to have approximately 40 guys competing for 5 spots + the practice squad. Of course, barring injuries, trades, etc. The most competition is at safety, ILB, OL, DL and RB. I think WR is pretty much set (sorry Griff), and while there might be some roster balancing at OLB and CB, I think the top 4/5 are pretty much easy to figure out. I would have liked more certainty at OL, and someone more proven on DL behind the top four.

 

I would give Gore, Hilton, Johnson, Allen, AC, Jones, Cole, Mathis, Freeman, Davis, Toler and Adams an easy camp, to whatever extent possible. Try to prevent injuries, give the young guys more reps, and really let them duke it out for whatever spots are actually available. 

 

It's gonna be a good camp.

[TKnight24]

Not sure why you're on the fence about Robinson. We're gonna carry 3 RB's and he's gonna be one.

Those of you on the Ballard bandwagon need to come back to reality. Don't see him making the roster

[braveheartcolt]

Not sure why you're on the fence about Robinson. We're gonna carry 3 RB's and he's gonna be one.

Those of you on the Ballard bandwagon need to come back to reality. Don't see him making the roster

So everyone is a dreamer for not thinking the way you do?

Got it......

[bestQBever]

I don't think only having 4 CB's is a good idea.

[TKnight24]

So everyone is a dreamer for not thinking the way you do?

Got it......

Ok

[Superman]

I don't think only having 4 CB's is a good idea.

 

I'm not projecting only 4 CBs. I'm projecting those four as locks.

[Superman]

Not sure why you're on the fence about Robinson. We're gonna carry 3 RB's and he's gonna be one.

Those of you on the Ballard bandwagon need to come back to reality. Don't see him making the roster

 

He's a late sixth round draft pick. If he gets outplayed by someone else, he could easily be on the outside looking in. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt and assuming he makes it, but I don't think he's a virtual lock, and that's what my list is about. Even still, I'm counting on him making the roster, leaving 5 spots open.

[Yoshinator]

Hey Superman, do you really think Whalen or Brown could realistically beat out Carter? Carter has been solid so far and I know we are high on him. Not a big investment, but I think it would take a lot to cut him, and Grigson knows that he wouldn't clear waivers to make it back on the practice squad.

[Superman]

Hey Superman, do you really think Whalen or Brown could realistically beat out Carter? Carter has been solid so far and I know we are high on him. Not a big investment, but I think it would take a lot to cut him, and Grigson knows that he wouldn't clear waivers to make it back on the practice squad.

 

Not really. I think Carter is in there, barring major developments. I think we'd be more likely to keep 6 WRs including Carter than to keep 5 without Carter.

[ColtStronger]

Setting aside major roster changes and/or injuries, this is my thinking. The players listed below all have a 75% or better chance of making the final 53 man roster. Many of them are locks, others are highly likely to be on the team. In italics are guys I'm on the fence about, but more confident than not that they'll be on the team.

 

QB: Luck, Hasselbeck

RB: Gore, Herron, Robinson

WR: Hilton, A. Johnson, Moncrief, Dorsett, Carter

TE: Allen, Fleener, Doyle

OL: Castonzo, Mewhort, Holmes, Herremans, Reitz, Thornton, Harrison, Cherilus, Thomas

DL: Chapman, Jones, Langford, Anderson, Hughes, Parry

OLB: Cole, Werner, Walden, Newsome, (Mathis on PUP)

ILB: Freeman, Jackson, Irving, Herrera, Muamba

CB: Davis, Toler, Butler, Smith

S: Adams, Lowery, Geathers, Anderson

ST: Vinatieri, McAfee, Overton

 

That's 48 spots, plus Mathis. I only think 10 of them are even really debatable. Cherilus and Thomas have to be healthy, and if it were me, I'd drop both of them today and sign Evan Mathis. Almost anything can happen in camp, but given the investments and the projections for most of these guys, I think this is a fair projection.

 

By my numbers, we're going to have approximately 40 guys competing for 5 spots + the practice squad. Of course, barring injuries, trades, etc. The most competition is at safety, ILB, OL, DL and RB. I think WR is pretty much set (sorry Griff), and while there might be some roster balancing at OLB and CB, I think the top 4/5 are pretty much easy to figure out. I would have liked more certainty at OL, and someone more proven on DL behind the top four.

 

I would give Gore, Hilton, Johnson, Allen, AC, Jones, Cole, Mathis, Freeman, Davis, Toler and Adams an easy camp, to whatever extent possible. Try to prevent injuries, give the young guys more reps, and really let them duke it out for whatever spots are actually available. 

 

It's gonna be a good camp.

Would you add Cherilus and Thomas to that list?  I noticed they were in bold not italic, what did that mean?

[Superman]

Would you add Cherilus and Thomas to that list?  I noticed they were in bold not italic, what did that mean?

 

I said that I would drop both of them today and sign Mathis, if it were up to me. That's why they were bolded. Or even renegotiate Thomas' deal, but I wouldn't keep him at $3.25m base salary. Those are the two that I think are most likely to not be on the roster once camp starts.

 

If they are on the roster during camp, then I'd definitely sit them for as long as possible. Probably put them on PUP. But on Tuesday of Week 1, their salaries are guaranteed. If they aren't ready to play by cut day, why keep them? JMO. The staff appears to be willing to give them every chance to get on the field, and I would have released both of them in March. So I'm probably not on track here...

[ColtStronger]

I said that I would drop both of them today and sign Mathis, if it were up to me. That's why they were bolded. Or even renegotiate Thomas' deal, but I wouldn't keep him at $3.25m base salary. Those are the two that I think are most likely to not be on the roster once camp starts.

 

If they are on the roster during camp, then I'd definitely sit them for as long as possible. Probably put them on PUP. But on Tuesday of Week 1, their salaries are guaranteed. If they aren't ready to play by cut day, why keep them? JMO. The staff appears to be willing to give them every chance to get on the field, and I would have released both of them in March. So I'm probably not on track here...

Don't know much about Mathis, but is he better than a healthy Thomas or Cherilus?  Problem being is that Thomas hasn't been on the field in a long time.  My guess is that they're giving him a chance to prove himself in camp, but more than likely be cut!  I hope Cherilus can bounce back, but he is a ? as well...  Either way, it doesn't matter how good you are if your're never on the field!  Just ask Bob Sanders.

[Superman]

Don't know much about Mathis, but is he better than a healthy Thomas or Cherilus?  Problem being is that Thomas hasn't been on the field in a long time.  My guess is that they're giving him a chance to prove himself in camp, but more than likely be cut!  I hope Cherilus can bounce back, but he is a ? as well...  Either way, it doesn't matter how good you are if your're never on the field!  Just ask Bob Sanders.

 

Mathis is better than Thomas, and plays a different position than Cherilus (but he's better than him, too). I would cut Thomas and Cherilus without signing Mathis, to be honest.

 

Here's the problem with giving those guys a chance to prove themselves in camp: If they get hurt performing team related activities, we have to pay them for another season. Two guys who are unlikely to stay healthy, based on recent history. I'd rather move on. Neither of them are irreplaceable, and neither of them have really performed at a high level for any period of time for us. There's no devotion to them, no nostalgia, and neither of them ought to be in our long term plans. I'm ready to go.

[Smonroe]

He's a late sixth round draft pick. If he gets outplayed by someone else, he could easily be on the outside looking in. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt and assuming he makes it, but I don't think he's a virtual lock, and that's what my list is about. Even still, I'm counting on him making the roster, leaving 5 spots open.

Pretty much how I feel. Ballard was better than him in college and has experience. If he's back to form he could push Robinson to the PS.

Can't disagree with your initial premise. It's going to be tough to make this team. And that's a good thing.

[BrentMc11]

The only things I would do difference is a 6th receiver.  Vincent Brown.

 

The second is I feel Dewey McDonald is the next Sergio Brown at gunner.  

 

Looks pretty good to me.

[throwing BBZ]

 Zack Kerr is gonna shine.

[Lawrence Owen]

Been hearing ALOT of compliments on Hedges at LB also.  Seems he may have a good shot at making the team, (or atleast the practice squad.)

I will agree to disagree with you on the acquisition of Mathis.

And I believe Kerr will make the cut..if not win out the starter position by the beginning of the season.

But yeah, other than that, I seem to agree with you on the rest of the lineup

[PuntersArePeopleToo]

Mathis is better than Thomas, and plays a different position than Cherilus (but he's better than him, too). I would cut Thomas and Cherilus without signing Mathis, to be honest.

 

Here's the problem with giving those guys a chance to prove themselves in camp: If they get hurt performing team related activities, we have to pay them for another season. Two guys who are unlikely to stay healthy, based on recent history. I'd rather move on. Neither of them are irreplaceable, and neither of them have really performed at a high level for any period of time for us. There's no devotion to them, no nostalgia, and neither of them ought to be in our long term plans. I'm ready to go.

I wonder more if Cherilus has gotten healthy. The year before he was a decent rt for us but last year the injuries seems to have derailed him I wouldn't say he was really injure prone. Thomas on the other hand yes

[NewColtsFan]

I said that I would drop both of them today and sign Mathis, if it were up to me. That's why they were bolded. Or even renegotiate Thomas' deal, but I wouldn't keep him at $3.25m base salary. Those are the two that I think are most likely to not be on the roster once camp starts.

 

If they are on the roster during camp, then I'd definitely sit them for as long as possible. Probably put them on PUP. But on Tuesday of Week 1, their salaries are guaranteed. If they aren't ready to play by cut day, why keep them? JMO. The staff appears to be willing to give them every chance to get on the field, and I would have released both of them in March. So I'm probably not on track here...

 

To your point that the staff is giving them every chance to get on the field....   noticed by me as well.  

 

And it's got me thinking that if they're making progress toward playing,  but perhaps not going to be ready by week 1,  or even ready by September,  but perhaps by sometime in October or November,  that the PUP may be a real option for them.    Perhaps Grigson/Pagano like them enough to be willing to pay them for half a season,  or 10 games,   rather than cut them loose?    Maybe they think the Colts are much better with them in the line-up and are willing to be patient to get them?    Even at the risk of another injury during rehab?

 

Just thinking out loud....

[Superman]

To your point that the staff is giving them every chance to get on the field....   noticed by me as well.  

 

And it's got me thinking that if they're making progress toward playing,  but perhaps not going to be ready by week 1,  or even ready by September,  but perhaps by sometime in October or November,  that the PUP may be a real option for them.    Perhaps Grigson/Pagano like them enough to be willing to pay them for half a season,  or 10 games,   rather than cut them loose?    Maybe they think the Colts are much better with them in the line-up and are willing to be patient to get them?    Even at the risk of another injury during rehab?

 

Just thinking out loud....

 

Well there's no paying them for half a season. If they're on the roster Week 1, their pay is guaranteed, PUP or not. If they get hurt before then, they can't be released unless they pass a physical. And in order to start the season on PUP, they have to be on PUP at the start of training camp (which they likely will be), and throughout camp. 

 

The staff is being much more patient than I would be. In a perfect world, both of them are in our starting lineup, but that's not something we can count on right now. We'll see. 

[Superman]

I wonder more if Cherilus has gotten healthy. The year before he was a decent rt for us but last year the injuries seems to have derailed him I wouldn't say he was really injure prone. Thomas on the other hand yes

 

I'm not calling Cherilus injury prone, but from my very distant view from far away, I don't expect him to remain healthy for a full season any more. Given what he's had done to his knee, and the way it seems injuries are starting to pile up for him lately, it's just not a safe bet, IMO. And even healthy, it's not like he's a great player who can't be replaced. I'd rather use those cap resources in other ways, given what the team has to do here over the next couple years.

[DougDew]

I agree with the OP almost spot on. I would consider that given the colts recent comments about Geathers possibly playing a hybrid S/LB role, I'd replace Muamba with a 5th CB. But that's getting into splitting hairs.

[NewColtsFan]

I agree with the OP almost spot on. I would consider that given the colts recent comments about Geathers possibly playing a hybrid S/LB role, I'd replace Muamba with a 5th CB. But that's getting into splitting hairs.

 

There will be a 5th corner.   I think all teams carry 5.    But there may still be room for someone like Muamba even with a 5th corner.

[DougDew]

There will be a 5th corner.   I think all teams carry 5.    But there may still be room for someone like Muamba even with a 5th corner.

If Geathers will play a hybris S/LB role from time to time, I'd like to see that 5th CB be a hybrid CB/S, but I don't know who that player would be at the moment.

[akcolt]

So everyone is a dreamer for not thinking the way you do?

Got it......

RB's don't have a history of recovering from achilles injuries add the ACL the year before dreamer might be a bit optimistic

[akcolt]

Mathis is better than Thomas, and plays a different position than Cherilus (but he's better than him, too). I would cut Thomas and Cherilus without signing Mathis, to be honest.

Here's the problem with giving those guys a chance to prove themselves in camp: If they get hurt performing team related activities, we have to pay them for another season. Two guys who are unlikely to stay healthy, based on recent history. I'd rather move on. Neither of them are irreplaceable, and neither of them have really performed at a high level for any period of time for us. There's no devotion to them, no nostalgia, and neither of them ought to be in our long term plans. I'm ready to go.

I don't understand Thonas either it's been so long since he's been on the field took me a minute to realize who you were talking about. 1 1/2 games in 2 yrs.

Cherilus has managed to play 16 every year since 2012 until last year. Tackles are harder to find and we certainly don't have a wealth of them. I could see waiting him out.

I think Quarles makes the team someway.

[Gavin]

Seems about right in my opinion though Im not sure Muamba has a 75% chance or better of making the team given that he saw less then 50 snaps last year with Freeman struggling to return to form last year. I think I'd personally give Herrera and Irving the edge

[SteelCityColt]

That's a pretty solid projection there Supes, only thing I'd possibly say is I'm probably a bit more solid on Doyle than you. He always seems to have done what's asked of him pretty well and barring a massive break out from Swoope I can't see him not making it as our 3rd TE. 

 

I notice too no love for Zach Kerr, is that based on what you saw last season or on projecting him to have not progressed enough to win a spot. Also where do you see Hughes fitting in on that line? As NT cover? 

[Coltfreak]

Kerr is lazy..... that is why he didnt play more last season.  He will be good if he conquers that.  That was his report coming out of college and Grigs spoke about some lazy rookies last yr and it was apparent that he was one.

[CoachLite]

Just a wild guess, but I think 7th round pick Denzelle Good will make the team's 53 over more recognizable names. Surprise. Surprise. If I'm wrong, I think he'll still make the PS.

[Lawrence Owen]

Just a wild guess, but I think 7th round pick Denzelle Good will make the team's 53 over more recognizable names. Surprise. Surprise. If I'm wrong, I think he'll still make the PS.

Fully agree.  He has raw potential being so young and and so big.

[Superman]

That's a pretty solid projection there Supes, only thing I'd possibly say is I'm probably a bit more solid on Doyle than you. He always seems to have done what's asked of him pretty well and barring a massive break out from Swoope I can't see him not making it as our 3rd TE. 

 

I notice too no love for Zach Kerr, is that based on what you saw last season or on projecting him to have not progressed enough to win a spot. Also where do you see Hughes fitting in on that line? As NT cover? 

 

Doyle is probably a lock. But having a specialized role, if a younger guy is better on special teams coverage and/or blocking, Doyle could be on the bubble. I'd bet on him making it.

 

Kerr apparently hit a major wall last season, and even when he did play later in the year, he was bad against the run. I'm okay with him making the team, but he'll be in a dogfight. If his conditioning is improved, he'll have a good shot.

[Peterk2011]

Mathis is better than Thomas, and plays a different position than Cherilus (but he's better than him, too). I would cut Thomas and Cherilus without signing Mathis, to be honest.

Cutting Cherilus would create almost 9 mill in dead money. I don't see that happen. He has played almost all games since he's been here. Actually, barring another injury, I don't see him being cut next year either. He's a serviceable-to-good tackle, who is - if healthy - worth his money. Thomas is a different story. He can be cut, and I think he will be cut if he cannot get healthy by TC.

(Mathis is - and as far as I know always was - a zone blocking guard. I don't think he'd be a good fit here. I'm not saying he would be bad, but would not be as good as he is/was in ZBS, so would not worth the money he asks.)

[Superman]

Cutting Cherilus would create almost 9 mill in dead money. I don't see that happen. He has played almost all games since he's been here. Actually, barring another injury, I don't see him being cut next year either. He's a serviceable-to-good tackle, who is - if healthy - worth his money. Thomas is a different story. He can be cut, and I think he will be cut if he cannot get healthy by TC.

(Mathis is - and as far as I know always was - a zone blocking guard. I don't think he'd be a good fit here. I'm not saying he would be bad, but would not be as good as he is/was in ZBS, so would not worth the money he asks.)

Releasing Cherilus saves $4m this year, $4.1m next year. Dead money is $2.9m and $5.8m, respectively.

Also, he has a degenerative knee condition. I don't think he'll be healthy. Even at his best, he's really not a $7m/year player. When healthy, he might be close, but again, when is he going to be healthy?

[Hoosiernsavga]

I guarantee Kerr makes the roster.