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TY Hilton Contract Speculation (Merge)


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Dude is a game changer. He can get behind a defender, lay out, and make the unreal catch. If they let him go...I don't care what he costs...

 

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Ah yes, I do appreciate forum members who are anything but ambiguous or vague in their statements Indigo. Bluntness is a lost art these days. I wouldn't want you miffed at me man.  :D

 

Crisp clarity is always a good thing to me. Never loose that. 

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Grigson/Irsay are not going to give Hilton crazy money....10M per is probably tops.

Hilton needs to decide if he wants to be a Colt and play with Andrew and a probable SB soon...or if he wants the extra 2-3M per year.

 

The question then becomes......   what's the definition of "crazy money".

 

10 Mill might seem like the ceiling for now.    But with the salary cap expected to go up,  way up,  in the next CBA which starts in a few years (during the life of Hilton's next contract)   then the ceiling for "crazy money" is also expected to go way up.

 

That's the same problem that all the true #1's like, Green and Thomas and Bryant and Brown and Hilton are facing.   With the salary cap going up,  what does the ceiling look like for the top WR's?

 

That's the difficulty everyone is facing.....    And the answer (whatever it is)  might be higher than any of us are expecting....

 

Just thinking out loud.....

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TY is a stud but this will be a sorta "crossroads" moment for Grigson and his regime. The Colts can pay TY and continue to follow that same path of "high flying offensive stars get paid first" or use that money adding defensive players and offensive linemen. The Luck to Hilton combo has been great but if Dorsett and Moncrief can have a big year this year I could really see the Colts letting Hilton walk.

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The question then becomes......   what's the definition of "crazy money".

 

10 Mill might seem like the ceiling for now.    But with the salary cap expected to go up,  way up,  in the next CBA which starts in a few years (during the life of Hilton's next contract)   then the ceiling for "crazy money" is also expected to go way up.

 

That's the same problem that all the true #1's like, Green and Thomas and Bryant and Brown and Hilton are facing.   With the salary cap going up,  what does the ceiling look like for the top WR's?

 

That's the difficulty everyone is facing.....    And the answer (whatever it is)  might be higher than any of us are expecting....

 

Just thinking out loud.....

Thank you for dropping another angle to the scenario. (not sarcasm)  

Even though we 'may" be looking at higher caps in the future, the organization can't take that into consideration right now though with the contracts that are needed this year.  Too many quality players need to be signed.  Castonzo HAS to be resigned..no if's and's or but's.  so does one of the TE's(Allen if he stays healthy,..Fleener if not).  T.Y. is important..just because of the amount of qb/wr attunement he has with Luck.  That takes time, being a talented receiver does not make this happen alone.  With your suggestion of the up in the cap, maybe they make it a 3 year deal instead so they can re-evaluate the circumstances of the cap for him.  (just throwing idea's)

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Thank you for dropping another angle to the scenario. (not sarcasm)  

Even though we 'may" be looking at higher caps in the future, the organization can't take that into consideration right now though with the contracts that are needed this year.  Too many quality players need to be signed.  Castonzo HAS to be resigned..no if's and's or but's.  so does one of the TE's(Allen if he stays healthy,..Fleener if not).  T.Y. is important..just because of the amount of qb/wr attunement he has with Luck.  That takes time, being a talented receiver does not make this happen alone.  With your suggestion of the up in the cap, maybe they make it a 3 year deal instead so they can re-evaluate the circumstances of the cap for him.  (just throwing idea's)

 

Unfortunately,  this is not a "may" be looking at higher caps in the future situation.   This is an "we are" looking at higher caps.

 

And everyone in the football world knows it.   It's not official,  but it's been well talked about.   The cap is likely to go up about 8-10 Mill per year over the life of the next CBA.     So, by 2020 we could be pushing 180 Million for the cap.    I think it's currently around 132m,  but I could be off a little.    Superman likely knows.

 

So,  as a result,  neither the teams,  nor the agents that represent the best players can afford not to take the new TV deal into consideration.    Management will offer increased deals,  but agents will insist there's still more to be offered.   And no one wants to be the first to do a bad deal from either side.    The deals for all these WR's are going to be very difficult for everyone involved.

 

We're going to sweat this one out.   We might even have to hit TY with the franchise tag if we can't come to a deal by next season.

 

Either way,  the negotiations are going to be very difficult....

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Thank you for dropping another angle to the scenario. (not sarcasm)  

Even though we 'may" be looking at higher caps in the future, the organization can't take that into consideration right now though with the contracts that are needed this year.  Too many quality players need to be signed.  Castonzo HAS to be resigned..no if's and's or but's.  so does one of the TE's(Allen if he stays healthy,..Fleener if not).  T.Y. is important..just because of the amount of qb/wr attunement he has with Luck.  That takes time, being a talented receiver does not make this happen alone.  With your suggestion of the up in the cap, maybe they make it a 3 year deal instead so they can re-evaluate the circumstances of the cap for him.  (just throwing idea's)

 

If we let TY walk, there would definitely be enough space left to keep BOTH Fleener and Allen. And if it came down to it, as much as Id hate to say it, id rather keep both TE's than TY and we lose one or both of them.

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The big contract to watch is Dez.

 

Dez and TY numbers are similar, at least last year

 

Dez has a large impact on the Cowboys, TY has a large impact on the Colts

 

I could be wrong, but I wouldnt expect TY to play for much less than Dez gets

 

This is a cold business folks, these players are a quirk play from being out of the game forever.

 

The players like to have the opportunity to play with a great QB, but........ that only goes so far

 

8-10m isnt going to get the deal done, IMHO

 

I believe the deal gets done closer to 12-13m.

 

 

 

AND..........  there IS still money to sign the TEs..........  

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The big contract to watch is Dez.

 

Dez and TY numbers are similar, at least last year

 

Dez has a large impact on the Cowboys, TY has a large impact on the Colts

 

I could be wrong, but I wouldnt expect TY to play for much less than Dez gets

 

This is a cold business folks, these players are a quirk play from being out of the game forever.

 

The players like to have the opportunity to play with a great QB, but........ that only goes so far

 

8-10m isnt going to get the deal done, IMHO

 

I believe the deal gets done closer to 12-13m.

 

 

 

AND..........  there IS still money to sign the TEs..........  

 

Dez wants Megatron money - $16M. TY Hilton will not get close to that. $10-11M is my speculated guess for TY Hilton.

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Dez wants Megatron money - $16M. TY Hilton will not get close to that. $10-11M is my speculated guess for TY Hilton.

 

Dez won't get Megatron money.  But I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 13 to 14 Mil.  

 

Dez will get a little more then TY.  Perception has Dez as being the better WR, and this perception is driven in part by draft status and driven in part by TY getting to play with Luck.  But TY will get a little bit shy of Dez.  I think Dez gets 13 to 14 Mil and TY is gonna aim just a little under that and be at 12 to 13.  

 

 

The big contract to watch is Dez.

 

Dez and TY numbers are similar, at least last year

 

Dez has a large impact on the Cowboys, TY has a large impact on the Colts

 

I could be wrong, but I wouldnt expect TY to play for much less than Dez gets

 

This is a cold business folks, these players are a quirk play from being out of the game forever.

 

The players like to have the opportunity to play with a great QB, but........ that only goes so far

 

8-10m isnt going to get the deal done, IMHO

 

I believe the deal gets done closer to 12-13m.

 

 

 

AND..........  there IS still money to sign the TEs..........  

 

The bolded part is I think the important part for everyone to remember.  This is why I'd really like to get the deals done now.  Because I think TY might take a slightly lower figure IF we can give it to him with a solid amount of guaranteed money right now before he has to go out on that field again.  I think we could get TY for 11 Mil if we did it now.  Because he's gonna want security of knowing that he's rich even if he blows out his knee.  Plus we get it done before anyone sets the market.

 

Getting it done sooner could be huge.  Imagine what Watt's contract might look like if he had waited til after Suh signed his contract with Miami?

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Dez wants Megatron money - $16M. TY Hilton will not get close to that. $10-11M is my speculated guess for TY Hilton.

 

According to local news, Dez stated "13 mil is ok"  this past week, so he is looking below Megatron money

 

I think Hilton (his agent) will demand a similar contract

 

I think Hilton will wait til Dez gets his, then start the deeper dialog

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Dez won't get Megatron money.  But I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 13 to 14 Mil.  

 

Dez will get a little more then TY.  Perception has Dez as being the better WR, and this perception is driven in part by draft status and driven in part by TY getting to play with Luck.  But TY will get a little bit shy of Dez.  I think Dez gets 13 to 14 Mil and TY is gonna aim just a little under that and be at 12 to 13.  

 

 

 

The bolded part is I think the important part for everyone to remember.  This is why I'd really like to get the deals done now.  Because I think TY might take a slightly lower figure IF we can give it to him with a solid amount of guaranteed money right now before he has to go out on that field again.  I think we could get TY for 11 Mil if we did it now.  Because he's gonna want security of knowing that he's rich even if he blows out his knee.  Plus we get it done before anyone sets the market.

 

Getting it done sooner could be huge.  Imagine what Watt's contract might look like if he had waited til after Suh signed his contract with Miami?

You may be right on timing....... but it wouldnt surprise me at all, if TY.... DIDNT want to do his deal, until Dez gets his......  His agent has played the game before........   USUALLY waiting is the better key

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You may be right on timing....... but it wouldnt surprise me at all, if TY.... DIDNT want to do his deal, until Dez gets his......  His agent has played the game before........   USUALLY waiting is the better key

 

Depends though. . . TY Hilton was a 3rd round pick who's been playing on an extremely low salary NFL wise for 3 years now.  This year because of contract escalators will be his first earning over 1 million per season.  But he's still only getting 1.5 mil this season and it's not guaranteed.

 

He could take the risk and wait for Dez and he might get an extra million or 2.  But if something happens and he blows out his knee a lot of that money could go out the window.  No one is going to sign a guy who's best aspect is his speed until they know that he's going to return from injury with that same speed.

 

If I where him I'd want to get the deal done sooner rather then later.  One bad hit on the field could leave him looking for a career outside of football.  

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According to local news, Dez stated "13 mil is ok"  this past week, so he is looking below Megatron money

 

I think Hilton (his agent) will demand a similar contract

 

I think Hilton will wait til Dez gets his, then start the deeper dialog

 

I believe he said 13M was okay but he wants some security too. Which probably means 13M is nice but he wants more than that.

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Unfortunately,  this is not a "may" be looking at higher caps in the future situation.   This is an "we are" looking at higher caps.

 

And everyone in the football world knows it.   It's not official,  but it's been well talked about.   The cap is likely to go up about 8-10 Mill per year over the life of the next CBA.     So, by 2020 we could be pushing 180 Million for the cap.    I think it's currently around 132m,  but I could be off a little.    Superman likely knows.

 

So,  as a result,  neither the teams,  nor the agents that represent the best players can afford not to take the new TV deal into consideration.    Management will offer increased deals,  but agents will insist there's still more to be offered.   And no one wants to be the first to do a bad deal from either side.    The deals for all these WR's are going to be very difficult for everyone involved.

 

We're going to sweat this one out.   We might even have to hit TY with the franchise tag if we can't come to a deal by next season.

 

Either way,  the negotiations are going to be very difficult....

 

Salary cap in 2015 is $143.3m. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2510859-has-ty-hilton-hit-his-ceiling-as-indianapolis-colts-no-1-receiver

 

good read on whether T.Y. has hit his ceiling and if Indy show contract him now or not.  The post reveals that T.Y.'s numbers could actually go UP, even with more quality targets for Luck.  Paying him now before all the other receivers get their contracts, and before T.Y. possibly put's himself into the top 5 receivers list would be a good idea. he's a top 10 receiver now...but not top 5....

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Unfortunately,  this is not a "may" be looking at higher caps in the future situation.   This is an "we are" looking at higher caps.

 

And everyone in the football world knows it.   It's not official,  but it's been well talked about.   The cap is likely to go up about 8-10 Mill per year over the life of the next CBA.     So, by 2020 we could be pushing 180 Million for the cap.    I think it's currently around 132m,  but I could be off a little.    Superman likely knows.

 

So,  as a result,  neither the teams,  nor the agents that represent the best players can afford not to take the new TV deal into consideration.    Management will offer increased deals,  but agents will insist there's still more to be offered.   And no one wants to be the first to do a bad deal from either side.    The deals for all these WR's are going to be very difficult for everyone involved.

 

We're going to sweat this one out.   We might even have to hit TY with the franchise tag if we can't come to a deal by next season.

 

Either way,  the negotiations are going to be very difficult....

Excellent points here and I don't think it just effects WRs but ALL positions. The salaries are just off the charts and I do think much of that is the anticipation of the higher caps in future years. I do wonder though if Mark Cuban's prediction about the NFL imploding because of greed will start to see seeds of fruition if the amount of money the NFL expects to rake it is not actually there due to economic reasons. Once you start those wheels in motion with the salaries, it is hard to turn the clock back.

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