Draft Day #1

[Gavin]

It's doesn't dictate,  but it's somewhat predictive...

 

There are more success stories in higher rounds than later rounds, and you know it....

 

The chances of hitting on later rounds picks are much smaller,  and when you do hit on them,  they typically don't produce as much as higher round picks.     It's that way in all sports.  

 

It's not a hard and fast rule,  but generally speaking,  that's how it works....

Sure its predictive, I wont argue that but the best GM's can find players down in lower rounds, For the record Im not saying Dorsett was my first choice, I made it clear Kendricks was followed by Goldman....Both of which are surprisingly still on the board

[DougDew]

as we have seen over and over...these draft gurus are about as accurate as you or me....I take their reviews worth a grain of salt.....I think the guys that we would have valued on OL and DL were off the board and those on it were 2nd Ed value....so we took the guy with the first rd talent and the best chance to turn into a special talent.

Yes. Dorsett was Kipers second best available player, and a 4.3 runner. Nonspecial DTs, ILBs and Ss can be found in rounds after the 1st.

[NewColtsFan]

as we have seen over and over...these draft gurus are about as accurate as you or me....I take their reviews worth a grain of salt.....I think the guys that we would have valued on OL and DL were off the board and those on it were 2nd Ed value....so we took the guy with the first rd talent and the best chance to turn into a special talent.

 

Respectfully....   we disagree....   big time.

 

The general media writers may not know much,  but I don't pay much attention to them.

 

But the guys I follow are scouts who write for the media.    They know.    They're very accurate.

 

I just got 26 out of 32 in the first round.    And most of the guys I missed on,  were high 2nd rounders who were taken late in the first.     I got the first 20 in the first round right.     How does that happen if these guys don't know much?

 

Last year,  I got 24 out of 32.

 

I follow these guys because they have long track records of being pretty accurate. 

 

Am I a little disappointed in our pick?    Yes, a little.   But only because I worry about our defense.   But not because I think Dorsett can't play.    I think he's going to be TY Hilton 2.0,  only faster!

 

I can live with that!    

[SP_21]

we signed carter before we even knew AJ would be available and Carter is a marginal talent...may not even make the team. Only on this board was he being considered possibly playing right away. He is a project and likely to see the practice squad. You don't sign a guy out of the CFL and pencil him right into the lineup....can it happen sure but you don't build your team and make decisions based off a cfl FA being your answer.

You're right. But there will be good receivers like Lockett and Strong in the 2nd and probably Dorrsett too. We could have gotten better value by picking a defender in the 1st.

[corgi]

How did you know the pick before Goodell had announced it?

The people I follow on twitter were on top of things tonight.

[NewColtsFan]

Funny quip....

 

On my Stanford fans website,  someone quipped....  

 

"Who is helping Grigson with his draft?    Matt MIllen?!?"

 

              

[Archangel]

Well after reading all the posts, I had to laugh a little about the passion everyone has for the first round. Kind of surprised with the pick myself but after reading the many comments on the WR corp, I thought we had a lot of talent at that position but after reading some of the posts maybe we do not . So I guess this was a wise choice for the colts it will put another weapon for Andrew to throw at and IMO after watching some film dorsett should have no problem adapting quickly. The colts still have some picks left to address other areas of concern

[NewColtsFan]

ya know if Im completely honest I would not mind Abdullah or Duke Johnson at 29 just because they are the 2 best Backs left in my opinion...That's if we go rb of course

 

Gavin.....

 

This morning you mocked Abullah to the Colts at pick 61.

 

Yesterday,  you mocked Duke Johnson to the Colts at 93.

 

And tonight,   you say you'd be OK if we took either at 29.

 

That's a panic move.    At least stick something close to your board.

 

But taking 2nd or 3rd round guys in the first round is how employed GM's lose their job.

[akcolt]

as we have seen over and over...these draft gurus are about as accurate as you or me....I take their reviews worth a grain of salt.....I think the guys that we would have valued on OL and DL were off the board and those on it were 2nd Ed value....so we took the guy with the first rd talent and the best chance to turn into a special talent.

I give to Grig's for sticking to his board. 1st rounders are supposed to make an impact. He ran a 4.29 40 our return game is already better and with TY and Moncrief it'll be a blur.

We still have 8 picks it'll be ok. We will still get a S CB and RT hard to pass on a game changer

[Gavin]

Gavin.....

 

This morning you mocked Abullah to the Colts at pick 61.

 

Yesterday,  you mocked Duke Johnson to the Colts at 93.

 

And tonight,   you say you'd be OK if we took either at 29.

 

That's a panic move.    At least stick something close to your board.

 

But taking 2nd or 3rd round guys in the first round is how employed GM's lose their job.

I said IF we went with a RB at 29....we clearly did not

[NewColtsFan]

I said IF we went with a RB at 29....we clearly did not

 

What difference does it make?

 

You said you'd be fine with it if we did.     How does that make any sense when you think they're 2nd and 3rd round picks?

[Gavin]

What difference does it make?

 

You said you'd be fine with it if we did.     How does that make any sense when you think they're 2nd and 3rd round picks?

Because outside of Gurley and Gordon who were both well off the board by the time our pick 29 came around Abdullah and Johnson were my next two best Backs in my ranking.......So if we went rb at 29 I would have went with either one of them even though I would prefer them either in the 2nd or 3rd round

[Lucky Colts Fan]

Everyone just R E L A X.  So we stacked strength on top of strength, so what?  We're not the only team to do so in this draft.  The Jets have arguably the best 3-4 DE tandem in the league with Richardson/Wilkerson, and who do they draft? Leonard Williams.  The Broncos have a great OLB tandem in Ware/Miller, and who do they draft? Shane Ray.

 

Go back a decade to the 2005 draft.  The Packers had a top 5 QB in Brett Favre, and who did they draft?  Aaron Rodgers.

 

Adding Dorsett to Hilton/Johnson/Moncrief/Carter makes 50 pts/game very possible.  Especially if we find some Oline and RB help in the later rounds of this draft.

 

Do we have a defense to prevent 51 pts/game?  I think so, and we have 6 more rounds to find big run stoppers (a lot easier to find than Dorsett-level talent) in this draft for all the "Pats gonna roll again" naysayers.

 

(Personally, I was hoping for Landon Collins or Malcom Brown with our 1st pick, but what do I know?  I'm a Tuesday Morning QB like the rest of you.  There is a reason none of us are making these decisions for the Colts...)

 

What if the Colts develop Moncrief and/or Carter into lucrative trades for future draft picks that end up leading to a Super Bowl?  Just R E L A X and let this play out...

[NewColtsFan]

Because outside of Gurley and Gordon who were both well off the board by the time our pick 29 came around Abdullah and Johnson were my next two best Backs in my ranking.......So if we went rb at 29 I would have went with either one of them even though I would prefer them either in the 2nd or 3rd round

 

 

If they don't have first round grades,  then you don't take them.

 

You don't panic when you don't need to.    And this is a very deep draft for RB's....    we'll get a good one later.

 

You're over-thinking this badly..........

[Lucky Colts Fan]

Personally, I like the pick.  Any team would kill to have two TYs on the same field with Andrew Luck on their team.  We got lucky with TY, and everyone knows it.  If we had drafted Dorsett in the third, like TY, everyone would be praising Grigs for being a genious.  He wasn't taking a chance this year and pulled the trigger in the first.

 

We can find big run stoppers and safety help in later rounds much easier than trying to get lucky with another TY.  That is the metric.  Defensive scheme guys are a dime/dozen.  Elite talent at the skill positions is worth first round picks every time.

[Gavin]

If they don't have first round grades,  then you don't take them.

 

You don't panic when you don't need to.    And this is a very deep draft for RB's....    we'll get a good one later.

 

You're over-thinking this badly..........

I don't think your understanding what Im saying, I would not have drafted either Abdullah or Johnson in the first round BUT if Gurley and Gordon were both off the board and Grigson still insisted on drafting a rb in the 1st round then either Abdullah or Johnson would be my choice, Im not overthinking anything

[NewColtsFan]

I don't think your understanding what Im saying, I would not have drafted either Abdullah or Johnson in the first round BUT if Gurley and Gordon were both off the board and Grigson still insisted on drafting a rb in the 1st round then either Abdullah or Johnson would be my choice, Im not overthinking anything

 

Right.    You're not over-thinking.

 

You're just contradicting yourself and you don't even know it.

 

You follow the board.    You don't reach, especially in the first round.

[Gavin]

Right.    You're not over-thinking.

 

You're just contradicting yourself and you don't even know it.

 

You follow the board.    You don't reach, especially in the first round.

Um I think I have said numerous times over the last few weeks BPA is the best strategy, If you don't know that's what I said repeatedly I don't know what to tell you

[NewColtsFan]

Um I think I have said numerous times over the last few weeks BPA is the best strategy, If you don't know that's what I said repeatedly I don't know what to tell you

 

I know you've said BPA.

 

And you contradicted yourself when you lobbied for Abdullah or Duke Johnson in the first round.

 

I don't know why you're not acknowledging that,  but you're not.   I don't know what to tell you.

 

I'm only engaging you on this point because I know how important the draft and scouting is to you.   Far more important to you than it is to most here....

 

I'm not trying to give you a hard time,  thought it might seem like I am.   I like you too much to do that.   I'm just trying to point out some inconsistencies in your views...

[Gavin]

I know you've said BPA.

 

And you contradicted yourself when you lobbied for Abdullah or Duke Johnson in the first round.

 

I don't know why you're not acknowledging that,  but you're not.   I don't know what to tell you.

 

I'm only engaging you on this point because I know how important the draft and scouting is to you.   Far more important to you than it is to most here....

 

I'm not trying to give you a hard time,  thought it might seem like I am.   I like you too much to do that.   I'm just trying to point out some inconsistencies in your views...

My view is this:

 

If Grigson would have went RB in the 1st round (Which obviously we did not) and Gurley AND Gordon were OFF the board(Which they were) then my next 2 Backs I would have wanted (again only if Grigson insisted on a Back in the 1st which he clearly did not) would be Abdullah or Johnson, Would I want them in the 1st if Grigson went with another player at another position? No...Because I prefer either Back in the 2nd or 3rd round...I wanted Kendricks at 29 or Goldman

[ColtsBlueFL]

I would strongly disagree that Dorsett is the BPA.  Malcolm Brown, Goldman, etc.

 

That was your list, I had Dorsett just above Brown.  To each his own...

[ColtsBlueFL]

That's debatable.

 

Yes.  But I had Dorsett listed above Brown on my list...  Who did you have above him?

[SilentHill]

Well.....bye..... one less bandwagon fan

 

I didn't say I am one, just that I want to be one. They seem to get everything right, Their coaches and front office are geniuses. Ours by comparison are in remedial kindergarten.

[SilentHill]

Yes.  But I had Dorsett listed above Brown on my list...  Who did you have above him?

 

No one, because WR isn't a need.

[csmopar]

I didn't say I am one, just that I want to be one. They seem to get everything right, Their coaches and front office are geniuses. Ours by comparison are in remedial kindergarten.

Then go....if they are so perfect, go be one of their fans then.   It's one thing to disagree with the pick, I for sure do, but to abandon your team because of picking a WR in round 1......that's the definition of a bandwagon fan. I watched the Colts when we were 3-13 for what seemed like centuries in the 90s, watched every game in the dread 2-14 season....still here.

[csmopar]

Personally, I like the pick.  Any team would kill to have two TYs on the same field with Andrew Luck on their team.  We got lucky with TY, and everyone knows it.  If we had drafted Dorsett in the third, like TY, everyone would be praising Grigs for being a genious.  He wasn't taking a chance this year and pulled the trigger in the first.

 

We can find big run stoppers and safety help in later rounds much easier than trying to get lucky with another TY.  That is the metric.  Defensive scheme guys are a dime/dozen.  Elite talent at the skill positions is worth first round picks every time.

If we go defense in the 2nd round, with a run stopper or a coverage safety...I think I can be happy...maybe

[NewEra]

NE won because they had a stacked salary cap D and a young Brady playing like a 10mm dollar QB but getting paid nothing. Basically, when a pro bowl QB is playing for free, you can pay a defense a lot of money.

IOW, if you don't have speedy receivers, you can win if you draft a pro bowl QB in the 6th round.

Their other championship was the result of bush league concealment of eligible receivers and having a TE nobody can seem to cover.

They've made it to the super bowl 6 times winning 4.

[ColtsBlueFL]

No one, because WR isn't a need.

 

No matter whether you draft on need or BPA, rosters turn over, a lot!  I saw a study where only 1 out of 3 players that Started their teams last game in 2011 Started on that teams first game in 2013.  This isn't the depth guys, these are starters.  This is only one reason why I have signed on the the GM's mantra BPA.  To continue long term viability, I can see taking a more talented player over a less talented player in a position of current need.  Rosters and needs change rapidly in the NFL.  I'm a believer in stocking the roster with best athlete possible and then work a trade if things are too out of kilter.

 

Though Malcom Brown to Pats at 32 is a great score for them, I admit that I had Dorsett above Brown on the list.  I had Byron Jones just above him.  When Jones got taken, I had a feeling that Dorsett at WR could be ours.  I didn't know if Grigson had him above Brown like me or not.  Apparently he did.

[NewColtsFan]

No matter whether you draft on need or BPA, rosters turn over, a lot!  I saw a study where only 1 out of 3 players that Started their teams last game in 2011 Started on that teams first game in 2013.  This isn't the depth guys, these are starters.  This is only one reason why I have signed on the the GM's mantra BPA.  To continue long term viability, I can see taking a more talented player over a less talented player in a position of current need.  Rosters and needs change rapidly in the NFL.  I'm a believer in stocking the roster with best athlete possible and then work a trade if things are too out of kilter.

 

Though Malcom Brown to Pats at 32 is a great score for them, I admit that I had Dorsett above Brown on the list.  I had Byron Jones just above him.  When Jones got taken, I had a feeling that Dorsett at WR could be ours.  I didn't know if Grigson had him above Brown like me or not.  Apparently he did.

 

I'm out of "Likes"...

 

But wanted to give you a shout-out for a very nice and very thoughtful post.

 

Wish we had more of them here this morning....

 

Well done!    

[SilentHill]

Then go....if they are so perfect, go be one of their fans then.   It's one thing to disagree with the pick, I for sure do, but to abandon your team because of picking a WR in round 1......that's the definition of a bandwagon fan. I watched the Colts when we were 3-13 for what seemed like centuries in the 90s, watched every game in the dread 2-14 season....still here.

 

Um yea, you're not getting it. I'm not abandoning my team. It amazes me that you can't comprehend what I write.

[husker61]

a while back i was hoping gregory would fall to the colts. now even more red flags have surfaced about him, causing me to be on the fence about him. he may fall a lot further now. i don't like taking a wr at all, and the 6th one!! i think a lb is the way to go (as long as its not a reach) and would have taken kendricks and if gregory falls to the colts in the 2nd, i would take the boom or bust chance. i have had a problem with the colts lb's for a long time.

[csmopar]

Um yea, you're not getting it. I'm not abandoning my team. It amazes me that you can't comprehend what I write.

Oh I'm getting it just fine.  

This Dorsett pick is making you wish you were a Pat's fan because somehow they seem to work the draft amazingly and get solid stars wherever they pick, making their scouts and front office look really good........

[SilentHill]

Oh I'm getting it just fine.  

This Dorsett pick is making you wish you were a Pat's fan because somehow they seem to work the draft amazingly and get solid stars wherever they pick, making their scouts and front office look really good........

 

Yup, I'm completely jealous, and everyone else should be to.

[csmopar]

Yup, I'm completely jealous, and everyone else should be to.

Why....I'm not, not at all. Except  I do wish we'd jumped on Brown but then again, there has to be some underlining reason a player that was projected 8th to 12th by most drafts fell to 32

[DougDew]

They've made it to the super bowl 6 times winning 4.

Yes. Their 3 early championships were led by the defense, but got 1st round QB play from a 6th rounder. All things being equal, if you get 1st round quality play from a defender taken in the first round and get 1st round quality play from a QB taken in the 6th round..well...its like getting two first rounders. That's why they won their first three.

The year they almost went undefeated is the year Randy Moss helped Brady break the TD record...and the little slot guy Wes Welker was in his prime.

I don't recall the year they lost the other.

This year, they benefitted from shenanigans and playing an inferior team in Seattle, who got lucky to be in the SB because of the met down GB had. I think Green Bay beat NE during the regular season...and they throw the ball all over the place.

[dgambill]

Respectfully....   we disagree....   big time.

 

The general media writers may not know much,  but I don't pay much attention to them.

 

But the guys I follow are scouts who write for the media.    They know.    They're very accurate.

 

I just got 26 out of 32 in the first round.    And most of the guys I missed on,  were high 2nd rounders who were taken late in the first.     I got the first 20 in the first round right.     How does that happen if these guys don't know much?

 

Last year,  I got 24 out of 32.

 

I follow these guys because they have long track records of being pretty accurate. 

 

Am I a little disappointed in our pick?    Yes, a little.   But only because I worry about our defense.   But not because I think Dorsett can't play.    I think he's going to be TY Hilton 2.0,  only faster!

 

I can live with that!    

They don't know which players are on which teams boards. Teams are very tight lipped about those things and even when they do share info it is often a smoke screen. It isn't they don't have a decent valuation on a guy...its where the guy will go.

[dgambill]

You're right. But there will be good receivers like Lockett and Strong in the 2nd and probably Dorrsett too. We could have gotten better value by picking a defender in the 1st.

I disagree...and obviously Grigson and company did too. I'm not big on Brown..and position like safety to me is not one you take in the first rd unless you have a really really special star...ala Ed Reed....even then players like Eric Berry who people thought are a can't miss don't always turn into perinial pro bowlers. Value can be had later on. WR has a lot of talent deep in this draft...but not many with the skill set that Dorsett has...there really isn't another burner like him in the draft with the hands and ability to get in and out of his breaks like this kid...he is special. He wouldn't have lasted long...he went as about as late as he was going to go. Top of the second rd this guy would have been gone....not more than 5 picks in...maybe not even past NE in the first.