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How many here think Werner is a bust?


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Werner is playing out of position something's. I think he'll fine this season. Some argue that first round "must produce". I agree, but just give him time. We knew he is still learning. We're deep when healthy at the front 7. So regardless of the out come we're fine. The key for our team is health.

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I think he tried to hard to replace 98. He can't do that bend and dip move Mathis does, but still tries it. He should be himself. It's going to be tough to get playing time now with newsome making plays

And therein lies Werners problem... he is getting outplayed by a 6th round draft pick... I won't call Werner a bad football player, but in terms of being drafted as a 1st rounder, yes he's a bust.

Werner was at best a 3rd or 4th rounder. We gambled on him rounding out into a better player and we lost. He is what he is at this point. A depth player.

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I agree a lot with some of the points above. Drafted too high, probably, but then pre-draft he was evaluated that high but a number of sources so it wasn't considered a reach at the time. A bust? That's a bit too black and white for my liking, I'll go with very disappointing with small reserve of hope left for future development. He's quite clearly better suited to being the SAM backer and in some ways I think he suffered more than most on the D with the loss of Mathis. 

 

Let's see how he pans out this season, it's not like he's going to get cut so all those completely writing him off are going to have to suck it up for a bit. You might as well support him and pray that he gets better. 

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It seems that some people's definition of the term "bust" is unrealistic.  Polian said that the average percentage for first rounders being significant contributors is about 55%.  So, the norm is for 45% to not even do that.  Werner is somewhere in between at this point.

 

Werner has contributed about the same in his first two years as a pro as Reggie Wayne did...who could barely got any playing time and did little with it when he did.....and Reggie was picked like #25 in the first round.

 

I think some just didn't want the guy at the time the draft was taking place, and wanted some other guy, and now they are looking at facts in a way to validate the opinion they already formed.  That is a common thought process.

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He has other faults.  Pittsburgh game, down 44-34.  4th and inches and Pitt goes for it.  We blitz and have every thing covered and sniffed out.... except... our man Werner bit on the run fake, while his man Heath Miller slips behind him into the end zone where Big Ben hits him for the dagger TD (and record) that ends our hope at a comeback. Watch for yourself, if you can stomach a play from that game again. Werner wasn't even within 5 yards when Miller caught it.

 

http://www.steelers.com/videos/videos/Colts-vs-Steelers-Miller-catches-11-yd-TD-pass/8a449f3a-8b56-4611-bf7d-fbc769705976

 

HM1_zps0qbct7mn.png

HM2_zpseljeqetz.pngHM3_zpsmuliebdo.png

 

I think you could pick out a bunch of plays in that game where a defender played poorly.  Didn't Pitt score like 59 points?  

 

I'm not sure what Werner's responsibility is on that play, but I wouldn't expect an OLB who is stout enough to set the edge to also be able to run with Miller who is slanting into the middle of the field....don't we have ILBs and Ss to do that?

 

To my eye, #92 is closer to Miller than is #54.  And its 4th down, so we probably have the jumbo package in.  Maybe that was the problem in the first place.

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I don't want to argue about Werner, because I don't care that much, but I want people to look at the list of who was available to be drafted instead of him and to honestly assess who has contributed more to their team than Werner has to ours.  Keep in mind, XRhodes would not be playing much due to Toler, any WR due to TY and Reggie, any S due to Bethea/Landry. 

 

You have to evaluate the roster at the time and the Colts 34 scheme...

 

 

Indianapolis Colts

Werner, Björn

 

Minnesota Vikings

Rhodes, Xavier CB

 

Green Bay Packers

Jones, Datone DE

 

Houston Texans

Hopkins, DeAndre WR Clemson

 

Denver Broncos

Williams, Sylvester DT North Carolina

 

Minnesota Vikings

Cordarrelle PattersonWR Tennessee

 

St. Louis Rams

Alec Ogletree LB Georgia

 

Dallas Cowboys

Travis FrederickC Wisconsin

 

Baltimore Ravens

Matt Elam S Florida

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Johnathan Cyprien S FIU

 

Tennessee Titans

Justin Hunter WR Tennessee

 

Philadelphia Eagles

Zach Ertz TE Stanford

 

Detroit Lions

Darius Slay CB Mississippi State

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Giovani Bernard RB North Carolina

 

San Diego Chargers

Manti Te'o LB Notre Dame

 

Cleveland Browns

selection forfeited after selecting wide receiver Josh Gordon in the 2012 supplemental draft.[Forfeited picks 1]

 

New York Jets

Geno Smith QB West Virginia

 

San Francisco 49ers

Tank Carradine DE Florida State

 

Buffalo Bills

Robert Woods WR USC

 

Oakland Raiders

Menelik Watson OT Florida State

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Johnthan Banks CB Mississippi State

 

Carolina Panthers

Kawann Short DT Purdue

 

New Orleans Saints

selection forfeited as part of the punishment for the team's bounty scandal [Forfeited picks 2]

 

 

Arizona Cardinals

Kevin Minter LB LSU

 

Buffalo Bills

Kiko Alonso LB Oregon

 

Dallas Cowboys

Gavin Escobar TE San Diego State

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Le'Veon BellRB Michigan State

 

New York Giants

Johnathan Hankins DT Ohio State

 

Chicago Bears

Jonathan Bostic LB Florida

 

Washington Redskins

David Amerson CB N.C. State

 

New England Patriots

Jamie Collins LB Southern Miss

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Margus Hunt DE SMU

 

Miami Dolphins

Jamar Taylor CB Boise State from Indianapolis [R2 - 9]

 

San Francisco 49ers

Vance McDonald  TE Rice

 

Baltimore Ravens

Arthur Brown LB Kansas State

 

Houston Texans

D.J. Swearinger S South Carolina

 

Denver Broncos

Montee Ball RB Wisconsin

 

New England Patriots

Aaron Dobson WR Marshall

 

Atlanta Falcons

Robert Alford CB Southeastern Louisiana

 

Green Bay Packers

Eddie LacyRB Alabama

 

Seattle Seahawks

Christine Michael RB Texas A&M

 

Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce TE Cincinnati

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Dwayne Gratz CB Connecticut

 

Detroit Lions

Larry Warford G Kentucky

 

Oakland Raiders

Sio Moore LB Connecticut

 

Philadelphia Eagles

Bennie Logan DT LSU

 

Cleveland Browns

Leon McFadden CB San Diego State

 

Arizona Cardinals

Tyrann Mathieu CB LSU

 

Tennessee Titans

Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Connecticut

 

St. Louis Rams

T. J. McDonald S USC

 

New York Jets

Brian Winters G Kent State

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Glennon QB N.C. State

 

Dallas Cowboys

Terrance Williams WR Baylor

 

New Orleans Saints

Terron Armstead OT Arkansas–Pine Bluff

 

San Diego Chargers

Keenan Allen WR California

 

Miami Dolphins

Dallas Thomas G Tennessee

 

Buffalo Bills

Marquise Goodwin WR Texas

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Markus Wheaton WR Oregon State

 

Dallas Cowboys

J. J. Wilcox S Georgia Southern

 

New York Giants

Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M

 

New Orleans Saints

John Jenkins DT Georgia

 

New England Patriots

Logan Ryan CB Rutgers

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Shawn Williams S Georgia

 

Washington Redskins

Jordan Reed TE Florida

 

Indianapolis Colts

Hugh Thornton G Illinois

 

 

To me, the player that stands out as being a clear upgrade to what we had at the time was Travis Frederick. 

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I like to give players the benefit of the doubt for as long as I can, but I can't really come up with reasonable excuse for him under performing other than him just not being all that good now.

It's a shame but I'd say a bust.

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He's starting to become the new Rob Morris I think. 1st round pick. Struggled early. However, a move to the strong side of the defense made a huge difference and he became a solid player that contributed a lot in that position. Werner, IMO, is a strong side OLB and if that makes him a bust I guess he's a bust.

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I think you could pick out a bunch of plays in that game where a defender played poorly.  Didn't Pitt score like 59 points?  

 

I'm not sure what Werner's responsibility is on that play, but I wouldn't expect an OLB who is stout enough to set the edge to also be able to run with Miller who is slanting into the middle of the field....don't we have ILBs and Ss to do that?

 

To my eye, #92 is closer to Miller than is #54.  And its 4th down, so we probably have the jumbo package in.  Maybe that was the problem in the first place.

 

 

Werner, #92, was lined straight up on Heath Miller, as seen here-

AtSnap_zpst9bpujht.png

 

Sergio is at bottom coming on a blitz.  ILB's keying on the two RB's in up the gut run.  Safety Adams has the flat if a RB peels oof out there.  Davis has the wideout one on one.

Assignments_zps9qeie4ds.png

 

As seen, Miller has already slipped across the face of Werner, who still looks to be keying inside on the play action fake to the up back.  This allows Miller a free run to the end zone seen here-

Assignments2_zpsqyiamopk.pngere-

 

 

And here-

assignments3_zpsgllktkko.png

 

I mean, all Werner had to do was block / lock his man up at the LOS for a second or two and keep him form getting behind so quick and clean.  Everyone else was locked up and Sergio put Ben on his back on the play, but just a split second after the TD pass was thrown to Miller.  Worst time in the world to miss on you cover assignment IME.  We could have had the  Ball, down 10, minutes to go with momentum, Luck, and emotion riding on our side.  No ...  TD deflates the sails and we're down 51 -34 with no momentum nor emotional wave.  Game over.  I saw this play in real time and it haunts me to this day.  That and his lackluster presence in the Jags game in Jax I saw in person.  I wasn't a fan of the pick then, and nothing has really gotten me to change my mind, unfortunately.

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Like others have said, I think its looking like Werner was overdrafted, but he's not a bust.  If he takes over for Walden as the starting SAM after this coming season, and was replaced on obvious passing plays with more of an edge rusher, that would be fine with me.

 

No point in continuously whining about where someone was drafted when they can be a very useful contributor on your defense for many years. 

 

To get a player who is both stout enough to set the edge in the running game AND be a dynamic pass rusher probably takes a top 15 pick.  Since the Colts will never be picking in the top 15, they're going to have to use a rotational combo to hold up to the run on obvious running downs and rush the passer on obvious passing downs. 

 

Just like I might want Werner replaced on 3rd and 8, I don't want Newsome in much on 1st and 10 either.

 

 Thank you Doug.

 ANYONE who expected him to be a 10+ sack guy going against left tackles was Clueless. He isn`t that type of athlete.

 He is solidly on track to be Good on the other side.

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I mean, all Werner had to do

 

So I have to interject here.

 

You're absolutely right that he blew his assignment. Let's flog him for it. But there's no "all he had to do" about it. It was 4th and inches. As your images show, the middle of the defense sold out to stop the run. Werner took one false step, and got beat by a really good QB/TE combo on a well-designed play. It happens. 

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I don't want to argue about Werner, because I don't care that much, but I want people to look at the list of who was available to be drafted instead of him and to honestly assess who has contributed more to their team than Werner has to ours.  Keep in mind, XRhodes would not be playing much due to Toler, any WR due to TY and Reggie, any S due to Bethea/Landry. 

 

To me, the player that stands out as being a clear upgrade to what we had at the time was Travis Frederick. 

 

Hindsight, Frederick would have been a good pick, but very few expected him to go in the first round. The Cowboys were criticized for that pick for about six months, until it became obvious that he was an outstanding player. 

 

Rhodes was the pick. I disagree that he wouldn't have played due to Toler. Toler missed half of 2013 with injuries, and we had to suffer through Cassius "Neck Brace" Vaughn at corner. Put Rhodes in there instead, and things change.

 

Any WR would have played -- Hopkins, Patterson, etc. -- instead of DHB or Nicks. Gio Bernard or Le'veon Bell would have staved off the Richardson trade (not that I wanted a RB). 

 

Just saying, you look at that draft, and we could easily have done better than Werner. It should have been Rhodes.

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So I have to interject here.

 

You're absolutely right that he blew his assignment. Let's flog him for it. But there's no "all he had to do" about it. It was 4th and inches. As your images show, the middle of the defense sold out to stop the run. Werner took one false step, and got beat by a really good QB/TE combo on a well-designed play. It happens. 

 

Big time players make big time plays in big time situations.  Miller did, Werner didn't.  But if Werner would have just jammed Miller at the line and was prepared to play pass coverage first instead of letting him slide across his face, we might be talking what a great play Sergio Brown made sacking Big Ben, or making him throw it out of the end zone on his blitz to turn the ball over on downs and allow a potential Colts comeback.

 

Now if the coaches coached him to play run key first then react to his man going in pattern on that play, then that is on them.  I think Miller was option 3 on the progressions.  If Werner was in stride with Heath, the results are likely a pick, an incompletion, or a sack. 

If Ben lobs it to a tightly covered Miller, and he takes it from Werner, that is a great play by a great QB/TE combo. And then I tip my cap.

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Big time players make big time plays in big time situations.  Miller did, Werner didn't.  But if Werner would have just jammed Miller at the line and was prepared to play pass coverage first instead of letting him slide across his face, we might be talking what a great play Sergio Brown made sacking Big Ben, or making him throw it out of the end zone on his blitz to turn the ball over on downs and allow a potential Colts comeback.

 

Now if the coaches coached him to play run key first then react to  his man going in pattern on that play, then that is on them.

 

It's 4th and inches. I think, given how the entire defensive front reacted at the snap, we kind of know what the defense was thinking. Not just Werner.

 

And yes, big time players make big plays. I don't think Werner has ever been accused of being a big time player. That's a different conversation. But even then, we can all pick out big plays that great defenders have given up in critical situations. Blown coverages by great corners, missed tackles by linebackers, etc. Werner blew it there, but that doesn't mean he's a no-good sack of worthlessness. It was a really good play by the Steelers, and without a blown block on Sergio, Ben would have had more time. Bell was open on the front side of the play; Adams was in good position but I think Bell had an outside angle on him and would have picked up the first anyways.

 

And as was mentioned, this is a game in which we had already given up 44 points. We can go back to the first TD of the game and watch Vontae not play his assignment properly. Everyone got beat in this game. 

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I think in terms of a 1st round pick, he's a bust. He's a very mediocre player who isn't ever going to be what he was drafted to be. However he isn't a complete waste of space that doesn't contribute anything like Jarvis Jones, or gets himself in trouble like Dion Jordan so he has some value. He just doesn't give you 1st round value.

 

The appropriate term is 1st round bust.

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Werner is a bust, but only for where he was drafted.  If we would have taken him in the 2nd , then IMO, we would n't be talking about this. IMO, Werner has improved the last 2 seasons as a SOLB, but we drafted him as a Pass Rusher which he is not.

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It's 4th and inches. I think, given how the entire defensive front reacted at the snap, we kind of know what the defense was thinking. Not just Werner.

 

And yes, big time players make big plays. I don't think Werner has ever been accused of being a big time player. That's a different conversation. But even then, we can all pick out big plays that great defenders have given up in critical situations. Blown coverages by great corners, missed tackles by linebackers, etc. Werner blew it there, but that doesn't mean he's a no-good sack of worthlessness. It was a really good play by the Steelers, and without a blown block on Sergio, Ben would have had more time. Bell was open on the front side of the play; Adams was in good position but I think Bell had an outside angle on him and would have picked up the first anyways.

 

And as was mentioned, this is a game in which we had already given up 44 points. We can go back to the first TD of the game and watch Vontae not play his assignment properly. Everyone got beat in this game. 

Certainly doesn't mean he worthless, but people said he was really good except he doesn't get 10 1/2 sacks ...  My point was he can flawed in other areas as well.  Just because people feel he's a better fit at SAM.  His level of play can be had in players in later rounds.  I, too, was one that was excited when Rhodes was still on the board, and thought that was our guy.  So, even though I try not to, I probably put the play of Werner under a microscope more than I should at times.  AFAIC, if we get a guy in that outperforms Werner at some point, fine...  even if he was a round 1 selection.  Folks bring up Rob Morris, I think I'll have to check and see how similar the two situations are.

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His expectations weren't that high to be considered a bust, just a lousy first round pick.

Actually Werner was consistently mocked in the top 10, so he fell to the Colts. I was firmly in the Rhoades camp though.

He's definitely not shown any potential for greatness, but he has looked solid in run support at times. Our only hope is that he works feverishly on strength & conditioning so that maybe he can sustain a solid contribution.

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Certainly doesn't mean he worthless, but people said he was really good except he doesn't get 10 1/2 sacks ...  My point was he can flawed in other areas as well.  Just because people feel he's a better fit at SAM.  His level of play can be had in players in later rounds.  I, too, was one that was excited when Rhodes was still on the board, and thought that was our guy.  So, even though I try not to, I probably put the play of Werner under a microscope more than I should at times.  AFAIC, if we get a guy in that outperforms Werner at some point, fine...  even if he was a round 1 selection.  Folks bring up Rob Morris, I think I'll have to check and see how similar the two situations are.

 

Got you.

 

I just don't think a second year player making a coverage mistake at a new position is proof he can't play Sam.. His flaw is pass rush. He's pretty good at setting the edge, and he usually puts himself in good position in pass coverage. That's usually not what you want from a first rounder, but he's a good fit for our defense. He just needs to rush the passer a lot better. We'll see how that goes.

 

It's interesting that you brought up the Jags game early in the year. What I remember off the top of my head is that Werner got robbed of a strip sack in the end zone in that game. I don't remember if he did much of anything else in that game, but that was a big play.

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Hindsight, Frederick would have been a good pick, but very few expected him to go in the first round. The Cowboys were criticized for that pick for about six months, until it became obvious that he was an outstanding player. 

 

Rhodes was the pick. I disagree that he wouldn't have played due to Toler. Toler missed half of 2013 with injuries, and we had to suffer through Cassius "Neck Brace" Vaughn at corner. Put Rhodes in there instead, and things change.

 

Any WR would have played -- Hopkins, Patterson, etc. -- instead of DHB or Nicks. Gio Bernard or Le'veon Bell would have staved off the Richardson trade (not that I wanted a RB). 

 

Just saying, you look at that draft, and we could easily have done better than Werner. It should have been Rhodes.

Its obvious that Werner was picked out of need...there was a hole in the roster behind Mathis. 

 

At the time of the draft, Rhodes would have been considered a part time player in the nickel package for the next few years since Toler was being paid to play the #2.  Only out of bad luck would Rhodes have gotten to play his proper position.  I don't know if Rhodes was seen as a nickel CB, and I don't know if teams draft a nickel CB in round 1.

 

Same with WR.  The need for Hopkins or Patterson wasn't there.  

 

At the time, I think Werner was the proper pick, IMO, because the roster need was so glaringly large and the next pick wasn't until round 3.  Its what happens when a team is turning over a roster and introducing a new scheme at the same time.  You get what's available in the draft, and FA for that matter.  Its a bad position to be in.

 

Look at the situation then compared to now.  Now the roster is complete with proper players at the proper positions, with drafting for BPA and upgrading the roster, not filling it, being the primary consideration.  Even the hole at S can probably be filled with BPA in either of the first 3 rounds, and dime CBs later than that.  There will be no Werners or TRs in round 1 this year.

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Got you.

 

I just don't think a second year player making a coverage mistake at a new position is proof he can't play Sam.. His flaw is pass rush. He's pretty good at setting the edge, and he usually puts himself in good position in pass coverage. That's usually not what you want from a first rounder, but he's a good fit for our defense. He just needs to rush the passer a lot better. We'll see how that goes.

 

It's interesting that you brought up the Jags game early in the year. What I remember off the top of my head is that Werner got robbed of a strip sack in the end zone in that game. I don't remember if he did much of anything else in that game, but that was a big play.

 

This is quite true.  Against a bad Jags team with a patchwork O line, I also  expected a lot more of this.  Werner lined up on the RT, and bull rushed into the QB where he knocked the ball loose.  Less than a second later, V. Davis creates an illegal contact on receiver.  But it wasn't as the ball was really already out and headed out of bounds. Should have been a strip sack, I admit. He was robbed, I tell ya!

 

But largely, Henne only threw a few times.  Werner chased but just could not get him. Forced an INC. and a dump off or two though.  When Bortles came in Werner seemed to be able to penetrate that bad O line often.  And he was just shy of another strip sack to begin Bortles era (second half of game) that forced an incomplete pass.  But otherwise he also chased an athletic Bortles around  in vain. Bortles would break off a big run one time, and another time he came unblocked on a PA pass. When Bortles turned , he juked a slow (should have hit sacked  him by then!) Werner, scrambled and threw like a 30 yard completed pass on the run.

 

I cant remember much else, but more bull rushes, ineffective shoulder dips, and Luck having a field day!  I was hoping for the latter, and a big showing against a poor division rival by our No. 1 draft pick in season 2 after a year of grooming.

 

As I mentioned earlier, I became more aware of Bortles athleticism, and less enamored of Werner's that day, and my expectations dropped on him on that day.  Until the Pittsburgh game.  :-(   But so happy with that win, our first of the year.

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This is quite true.  Against a bad Jags team with a patchwork O line, I also  expected a lot more of this.  Werner lined up on the RT, and bull rushed into the QB where he knocked the ball loose.  Less than a second later, V. Davis creates an illegal contact on receiver.  But it wasn't as the ball was really already out and headed out of bounds. Should have been a strip sack, I admit. He was robbed, I tell ya!

 

But largely, Henne only threw a few times.  Werner chased but just could not get him. Forced an INC. and a dump off or two though.  When Bortles came in Werner seemed to be able to penetrate that bad O line often.  And he was just shy of another strip sack to begin Bortles era (second half of game) that forced an incomplete pass.  But otherwise he also chased an athletic Bortles around  in vain. Bortles would break off a big run one time, and another time he came unblocked on a PA pass. When Bortles turned , he juked a slow (should have hit sacked  him by then!) Werner, scrambled and threw like a 30 yard completed pass on the run.

 

I cant remember much else, but more bull rushes, ineffective shoulder dips, and Luck having a field day!  I was hoping for the latter, and a big showing against a poor division rival by our No. 1 draft pick in season 2 after a year of grooming.

 

As I mentioned earlier, I became more aware of Bortles athleticism, and less enamored of Werner's that day, and my expectations dropped on him on that day.  Until the Pittsburgh game.  :-(   But so happy with that win, our first of the year.

 

I remember the side-step. I felt it was a great move by Bortles more than a bad play by Werner. Luck side-stepped a Jags defender in the same game, and we talk about how great Luck is. Bortles can move, too, which we found out in that game.

 

I do remember Werner being a tick late on some plays in that game. That's kind of the story with him overall. Gruden was talking about a guy who played for his dad, and he'd listen to the games on the radio and would always hear this guy's name (I can't remember the name). But it was always "X with the big throw downfield, and Y with the pressure, but just late." Gruden say "Y" almost made a lot of plays. You really want guys who make a lot of plays, not guys who get close. 

 

So don't misunderstand, I think Werner needs to show a lot more. And obviously I don't think it was that great of a pick. But I do think he deserves some credit for the things he does well. Ironically, it's not the conversion to OLB that's holding him back, despite what people keep saying. It's his lack of burst as a pass rusher, and that doesn't change if he's in a 4-3.

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I didn't like the Werner pick at all, but I must admit, I thought Jarvis Jones would be awesome, so I would have blown the pick anyway.  

 

Folks, anyone here who suggests they KNEW it was a bad pick and could have out drafted Grigson across all his picks is lying.  If you were that good you should be working in the NFL, not posting here.  

 

I look at all those awesome players who went later and just hope that this year we pick some of THOSE type players this time around.  The biggest problem I think with Werner is he should be a full time 4-3 DE.  Another team using that D full time will find value in him we will never quite see even when we go into a 4-3.  Our hybrid just isn't ideal for his talent.  

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I remember the side-step. I felt it was a great move by Bortles more than a bad play by Werner. Luck side-stepped a Jags defender in the same game, and we talk about how great Luck is. Bortles can move, too, which we found out in that game.

 

I do remember Werner being a tick late on some plays in that game. That's kind of the story with him overall. Gruden was talking about a guy who played for his dad, and he'd listen to the games on the radio and would always hear this guy's name (I can't remember the name). But it was always "X with the big throw downfield, and Y with the pressure, but just late." Gruden say "Y" almost made a lot of plays. You really want guys who make a lot of plays, not guys who get close. 

 

So don't misunderstand, I think Werner needs to show a lot more. And obviously I don't think it was that great of a pick. But I do think he deserves some credit for the things he does well. Ironically, it's not the conversion to OLB that's holding him back, despite what people keep saying. It's his lack of burst as a pass rusher, and that doesn't change if he's in a 4-3.

 

Yeah, I had put him in the Y guy class.  His Bull rush is effective, but not always fast enough.  The issues is as you state, he's like a speed rusher - without the speed.  And he has no alternative moves (that are effective that I've seen).  But he's ours, and I hope he improves and coaches find a better way to position him to be successful.

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I didn't like the Werner pick at all, but I must admit, I thought Jarvis Jones would be awesome, so I would have blown the pick anyway.  

 

Folks, anyone here who suggests they KNEW it was a bad pick and could have out drafted Grigson across all his picks is lying.  If you were that good you should be working in the NFL, not posting here.  

 

I look at all those awesome players who went later and just hope that this year we pick some of THOSE type players this time around.  The biggest problem I think with Werner is he should be a full time 4-3 DE.  Another team using that D full time will find value in him we will never quite see even when we go into a 4-3.  Our hybrid just isn't ideal for his talent.  

 

Well, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on Jarvis Jones. He was gone at #17, so you couldn't have drafted him at #24 anyways. And everyone liked him.

 

But, I disagree with the idea that no one would have made a better decision than Werner. Rhodes was the consensus favorite around here. I don't like all the snap judgment on draft picks, so when people say "OMG, this was a terrible pick!!!" five minutes after it's made, I'm usually rolling my eyes. But I didn't like the idea of Werner before the draft, and felt robbed when the pick was announced. 

 

And you're right, I should be working in the NFL. ;) This is what I posted before the draft that year: http://forums.colts.com/topic/17689-narrowed-it-down-to-3-we-should-and-3-we-shouldnt/

 

I would take Hayden, but not over Rhodes (which obviously indicates that I'd take Rhodes). I don't get your criticism of Rhodes, or your praise of Hayden. Most reports I've read say that Hayden misses his share of tackles, while Rhodes is more solid in that area. You're probably right that Rhodes isn't going to take the ball away that often, but that's more because he's going to smother his man and take him out of the play. When you talk about a shutdown press corner, Rhodes is who I envision, like Nnamdi in his prime. Hayden is more Asante Samuel, plays off a little but closes quick, does better in zone than Rhodes, and he does separate his man from the ball when he gets there. Both have lots of potential, but I prefer Rhodes style and size. JMO.

...

 

I agree on Jones and Werner. Jones seems like he's in between positions, and wouldn't be a great fit in our defense, which is really saying something. He reminds me of Raheem Brock, and I wouldn't want him in the first round. Werner is hit and miss, and I don't think he'd be an impact player for us. He is who Grigson was talking about when he said "if we don't have a great feeling about the guy at #24..."

 

 

I was wrong about that last part, but right at the same time.

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And therein lies Werners problem... he is getting outplayed by a 6th round draft pick... I won't call Werner a bad football player, but in terms of being drafted as a 1st rounder, yes he's a bust.

Werner was at best a 3rd or 4th rounder. We gambled on him rounding out into a better player and we lost. He is what he is at this point. A depth player.

 

The only way you can even attempt to say that is with the benefit of hindsight.  Every draft pundit had him as a first round pick, at times he was even considered a top 5 pick.  With the knowledge the Colts had at the time, Werner was no more of a gamble than any other draft pick would have been.

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Big time players make big time plays in big time situations.  Miller did, Werner didn't. 

 

At that time, Miller was a multi-year All Pro and a 10 year NFL vet and Big Ben was an 11 year multi-year All-Pro QB who some have discussed as being destined for the HOF, whereas Werner was a 3rd year player.   Yeah let's send Werner to the guillotine for messing up on that one.

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Not a bust. He's playing a new position and got hurt his first year. He was thrust into the lineup his second year going against generally the best offensive lineman for each team. He's a hard worker by all accounts, which means to me he can still improve. A bust to me is a total failure. He isn't.

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It seems that some people's definition of the term "bust" is unrealistic.  Polian said that the average percentage for first rounders being significant contributors is about 55%.  So, the norm is for 45% to not even do that.  Werner is somewhere in between at this point.

 

Werner has contributed about the same in his first two years as a pro as Reggie Wayne did...who could barely got any playing time and did little with it when he did.....and Reggie was picked like #25 in the first round.

 

I think some just didn't want the guy at the time the draft was taking place, and wanted some other guy, and now they are looking at facts in a way to validate the opinion they already formed.  That is a common thought process.

Speaking of Polian, he even called Werner a bust.

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At that time, Miller was a multi-year All Pro and a 10 year NFL vet and Big Ben was an 11 year multi-year All-Pro QB who some have discussed as being destined for the HOF, whereas Werner was a 3rd year player.   Yeah let's send Werner to the guillotine for messing up on that one.

 

Early 2nd year.  If Werner wasn't fully ready to execute his pass cover assignment, don't give it to him.  This is on Pagano too, then.

 

Talking about coaches needing to put players in a position to succeed, the corollary fits.  Don't put him in a position to fail either. Don't give the other team an automatic TD...

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He has other faults.  Pittsburgh game, down 44-34.  4th and inches and Pitt goes for it.  We blitz and have every thing covered and sniffed out.... except... our man Werner bit on the run fake, while his man Heath Miller slips behind him into the end zone where Big Ben hits him for the dagger TD (and record) that ends our hope at a comeback. Watch for yourself, if you can stomach a play from that game again. Werner wasn't even within 5 yards when Miller caught it.

 

http://www.steelers.com/videos/videos/Colts-vs-Steelers-Miller-catches-11-yd-TD-pass/8a449f3a-8b56-4611-bf7d-fbc769705976

I hear you, but name another player on the team that hasn't made bad plays. Citing mistakes made in a single game isn't exactly compelling evidence that he is flawed as a player.

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I don't want to argue about Werner, because I don't care that much, but I want people to look at the list of who was available to be drafted instead of him and to honestly assess who has contributed more to their team than Werner has to ours. Keep in mind, XRhodes would not be playing much due to Toler, any WR due to TY and Reggie, any S due to Bethea/Landry.

You have to evaluate the roster at the time and the Colts 34 scheme...

Indianapolis Colts

Werner, Björn

Minnesota Vikings

Rhodes, Xavier CB

Green Bay Packers

Jones, Datone DE

Houston Texans

Hopkins, DeAndre WR Clemson

Denver Broncos

Williams, Sylvester DT North Carolina

Minnesota Vikings

Cordarrelle PattersonWR Tennessee

St. Louis Rams

Alec Ogletree LB Georgia

Dallas Cowboys

Travis FrederickC Wisconsin

Baltimore Ravens

Matt Elam S Florida

Jacksonville Jaguars

Johnathan Cyprien S FIU

Tennessee Titans

Justin Hunter WR Tennessee

Philadelphia Eagles

Zach Ertz TE Stanford

Detroit Lions

Darius Slay CB Mississippi State

Cincinnati Bengals

Giovani Bernard RB North Carolina

San Diego Chargers

Manti Te'o LB Notre Dame

Cleveland Browns

selection forfeited after selecting wide receiver Josh Gordon in the 2012 supplemental draft.[Forfeited picks 1]

New York Jets

Geno Smith QB West Virginia

San Francisco 49ers

Tank Carradine DE Florida State

Buffalo Bills

Robert Woods WR USC

Oakland Raiders

Menelik Watson OT Florida State

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Johnthan Banks CB Mississippi State

Carolina Panthers

Kawann Short DT Purdue

New Orleans Saints

selection forfeited as part of the punishment for the team's bounty scandal [Forfeited picks 2]

Arizona Cardinals

Kevin Minter LB LSU

Buffalo Bills

Kiko Alonso LB Oregon

Dallas Cowboys

Gavin Escobar TE San Diego State

Pittsburgh Steelers

Le'Veon BellRB Michigan State

New York Giants

Johnathan Hankins DT Ohio State

Chicago Bears

Jonathan Bostic LB Florida

Washington Redskins

David Amerson CB N.C. State

New England Patriots

Jamie Collins LB Southern Miss

Cincinnati Bengals

Margus Hunt DE SMU

Miami Dolphins

Jamar Taylor CB Boise State from Indianapolis [R2 - 9]

San Francisco 49ers

Vance McDonald TE Rice

Baltimore Ravens

Arthur Brown LB Kansas State

Houston Texans

D.J. Swearinger S South Carolina

Denver Broncos

Montee Ball RB Wisconsin

New England Patriots

Aaron Dobson WR Marshall

Atlanta Falcons

Robert Alford CB Southeastern Louisiana

Green Bay Packers

Eddie LacyRB Alabama

Seattle Seahawks

Christine Michael RB Texas A&M

Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce TE Cincinnati

Jacksonville Jaguars

Dwayne Gratz CB Connecticut

Detroit Lions

Larry Warford G Kentucky

Oakland Raiders

Sio Moore LB Connecticut

Philadelphia Eagles

Bennie Logan DT LSU

Cleveland Browns

Leon McFadden CB San Diego State

Arizona Cardinals

Tyrann Mathieu CB LSU

Tennessee Titans

Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Connecticut

St. Louis Rams

T. J. McDonald S USC

New York Jets

Brian Winters G Kent State

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Glennon QB N.C. State

Dallas Cowboys

Terrance Williams WR Baylor

New Orleans Saints

Terron Armstead OT Arkansas–Pine Bluff

San Diego Chargers

Keenan Allen WR California

Miami Dolphins

Dallas Thomas G Tennessee

Buffalo Bills

Marquise Goodwin WR Texas

Pittsburgh Steelers

Markus Wheaton WR Oregon State

Dallas Cowboys

J. J. Wilcox S Georgia Southern

New York Giants

Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M

New Orleans Saints

John Jenkins DT Georgia

New England Patriots

Logan Ryan CB Rutgers

Cincinnati Bengals

Shawn Williams S Georgia

Washington Redskins

Jordan Reed TE Florida

Indianapolis Colts

Hugh Thornton G Illinois

To me, the player that stands out as being a clear upgrade to what we had at the time was Travis Frederick.

give me Fredrick Bell Lacy Warford Rhodes or Alonso
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I hear you, but name another player on the team that hasn't made bad plays. Citing mistakes made in a single game isn't exactly compelling evidence that he is flawed as a player.

 

Making bad plays is one thing, in the most critical play of a game amplifies the (lack of) play.  And he doesn't make plays I feel he should.  Quiz-

 

What is the result of this play:

Bortles%20Juke1_zps8ljhkfyq.png

 

A. Werner sacks Bortles for a loss

B. Bortles barely slips from Werner, but the sack  is cleaned up by second Colt coming in to help

C. Bortles jukes and decleats Werner, scrambles across field and completes a 30 yard pass on the run

D. Bortles breaks free of Werner and gets up field for a 10 yard gain

E. Bortles fumbles and Colts scoop it and run it in for a 10 yard defensive TD

 

Got your answer?

 

 

OK here's a hint-

Bortles%20Jike2_zps1flrboh2.png

 

Oh, small change in the answer, but it is clearer now... right?  Another hint--

Bortles%20Juke3_zpsoami3se8.pngO

 

Oh dear...  So now it is apparent-

Bortles%20Juke4_zpsojvjgdtt.png

Yup... Sigh.

Bortles%20Juke5_zpsujm9exho.png

 

Does Mathis finish that play? Freeney? Heck, how about Newsome? All I'm saying is he has holes in his game. Deficiencies.  He seems solid against run and sets a decent edge.I'm still not sold he made the DE to OLB changeover in full, especially in pass coverage. And pass rush leaves much to be desired. He can work in our system, but we did not get full return on a round 1 investment, IMO.  I'm done bashing him. He doesn't deserve it any more than he does accolades others are willing to impart on him.  He's balanced in the middle.  And that's where I'll leave it.

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