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Matt Miller: Colts "in love" with Damarious Randall. Could be a late 1st round pick.


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don't get what the big deal is a LOT of speculation at this point before the draft like every year Randall is arguably one of the better safeties in this week class ive seen alot of his tape including the infamous game against Oregon State but every prospect has bad games on tape. I would not mind drafting Randall early at all.

 

 

I think he has upside but he needs a little work. If the FO sees the potential and alot that they like as well as the need for safety being very high around the league i wouldn't be surprised at all to see us try to grab him in round 1 or 2 round 2 would be preferable but the draft isn't always going to go your way perfectly, anything can happen look at Bucannon, and Ward from last year if a team likes a safety they get them quick before they miss out and this class is arguably much weaker than last year.

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I'd be shocked and very disappointed if the Colts took him in the first.

 

I'd prefer pick 93, but don't think he'll be there.     I could live with pick 61 which is where I think we'd like to take our safety.   But I'd go nuts if we used our first on him or another safety except for Collins (who I don't expect will be there...)    There's no other safety worthy of the 29th pick.

 

We need to be smart.

 

"Need" is a terrible judge of talent.....

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After watching a couple clips I think he's a pretty good athlete.  Definitely the type of safety I feel is suited for a man coverage scheme. Randall does have some refinements that will need to be made, but I like his ceiling as a safety in the NFL if the Colts chose him.  If it's true, I can see why the Colts have their eyes on him.  I'm not going to say what round I feel he should be drafted in as I'm not done watching.

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According to you and a bunch of bloggers?  It cracks me up how people here think they know what the professionals' boards look like.

 

 

I don't suppose you've noticed,  but the websites like ESPN.com and NFL.com are pretty accurate.

 

You don't see many projections go too far off.    They may not get a player matched up with a team -- but who cares?

 

They get the approx value of draft picks pretty close so people have a rough idea of the round they might be selected.

 

Do they get some wrong -- of course.    But they get far more right than wrong.

 

And you can go to both sites and see how the grades they were given match up with the rounds the players were drafted.   They do a very good job.

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To be clear,  Miller does NOT say the Colts will or even could draft Randall with their 1st round picks.

 

He talks about the teams that love the kid, and lists the Colts as one of them.

 

Then, Miller says don't be surprised if a team (he doesn't mention any names) picks him late in the first round.

 

That's NOT the same thing as saying the Colts are thinking about using their first pick on Randall.

You mean to say that some put their own words and meanings into a story or an article? Tell me it ain't so. :dunno:

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I don't suppose you've noticed,  but the websites like ESPN.com and NFL.com are pretty accurate.

 

You don't see many projections go too far off.    They may not get a player matched up with a team -- but who cares?

 

They get the approx value of draft picks pretty close so people have a rough idea of the round they might be selected.

 

Do they get some wrong -- of course.    But they get far more right than wrong.

 

And you can go to both sites and see how the grades they were given match up with the rounds the players were drafted.   They do a very good job.

 

Last year, Ward and Bucannon were projected to be 2nd to 3rd round picks and obviously went in the first.  We're talking about a 2nd to 3rd round projected pick getting drafted in the first, right?

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I'd be shocked and very disappointed if the Colts took him in the first.

 

I'd prefer pick 93, but don't think he'll be there.     I could live with pick 61 which is where I think we'd like to take our safety.   But I'd go nuts if we used our first on him or another safety except for Collins (who I don't expect will be there...)    There's no other safety worthy of the 29th pick.

 

We need to be smart.

 

"Need" is a terrible judge of talent.....

 

 

What part of his game have you watched to say that he shouldn't be in the first?

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Pagano has a way with DB's. Maybe he fix this guys' issues and turn him into something real good since it appears that the only thing not under attack about the guy is his overall athletic ability. Teach him to take better angles and fix his tackling issues and maybe you have the best S prospect in the entire draft??? Hey, I'm mr. optimism today haha

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Last year, Ward and Bucannon were projected to be 2nd to 3rd round picks and obviously went in the first.  We're talking about a 2nd to 3rd round projected pick getting drafted in the first, right?

 

I don't know who you rad,  but Ward and Bucnannon were mostly projected in the 2nd round.   I worried if either would fall to the Colts at pick 59.

 

They went earlier.    Does that make these websites bad to follow?

 

No one is going to bat 1,000.  

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What part of his game have you watched to say that he shouldn't be in the first?

 

What part of his game have you watched that says he SHOULD be in the first?    

 

I think that's the better question considering pretty much all websites have said (A) this is a terrible class of safeties, and (B) Collins is the only player worth a first round pick.

 

COULD it happen?    Sure.

 

But I hope it's nor the Colts, and I think we need a safety badly.

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I don't know who you rad,  but Ward and Bucnannon were mostly projected in the 2nd round.   I worried if either would fall to the Colts at pick 59.

 

They went earlier.    Does that make these websites bad to follow?

 

No one is going to bat 1,000.  

 

You cited NFL.com; both were projected in rounds 2-3.  We're talking about the same scenario, same position, one year later.

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What part of his game have you watched that says he SHOULD be in the first?    

 

I think that's the better question considering pretty much all websites have said (A) this is a terrible class of safeties, and (B) Collins is the only player worth a first round pick.

 

 

I haven't watched him enough to form an opinion, meaning I don't have a point to prove.  As opposed to people adamantly against it, meaning they should backup their opinions.

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http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profiles/deone-bucannon?id=2543769

I don't know who you rad, but Ward and Bucnannon were mostly projected in the 2nd round. I worried if either would fall to the Colts at pick 59.

They went earlier. Does that make these websites bad to follow?

No one is going to bat 1,000.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profiles/jimmie-ward?id=2543741

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You cited NFL.com; both were projected in rounds 2-3.  We're talking about the same scenario, same position, one year later.

 

It's not the same scenario.  

 

I saw mocks that those guys at the top of the 2nd...   I saw very few that had them in the 3rd.   And that draft class was not being called the worst class of safeties in years as this class is.

 

That class didn't have anyone saying only safety is worthy of a 1st round pick,  but this class sure is.

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I haven't watched him enough to form an opinion, meaning I don't have a point to prove.  As opposed to people adamantly against it, meaning they should backup their opinions.

 

I've been backing up my opinions by citing what the people who do this for a living are saying.

 

I'm not sure why you have trouble accepting that,  but you do.....

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I actually kind of like Randall. He's not a thumper and is a little small, but he's no Holliman either. Pretty good in coverage, plays a lot of slot corner and some outside corner, and he's feisty. He's really good as a punt gunner.

 

He's not a first rounder, though. I see him as a top 75 guy. If we wanted him, we'd probably have to pull the trigger in the second round.

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It's not the same scenario.

I saw mocks that those guys at the top of the 2nd... I saw very few that had them in the 3rd. And that draft class was not being called the worst class of safeties in years as this class is.

That class didn't have anyone saying only safety is worthy of a 1st round pick, but this class sure is.

NFL.con rated ward behind where they have Randall rated

Ward 5.44

Randall 5.47

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NFL.con rated ward behind where they have Randall rated

Ward 5.44

Randall 5.47

 

NFL.com is using a different evaluator this year.

 

As I noted in another post,  the fact that they were wrong on Ward shouldn't mean anything.

 

If we're going to discount for being wrong occasionally,  then no one should ever pay any attention to anyone,  but no one is right all the time in any sport.     Not the people who write about it,  and certainly not the people who actually draft for a living.

 

Your judging human beings,  being wrong some of the time is built in to the process.

 

I've never understood this argument.

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NFL.com is using a different evaluator this year.

As I noted in another post, the fact that they were wrong on Ward shouldn't mean anything.

If we're going to discount for being wrong occasionally, then no one should ever pay any attention to anyone, but no one is right all the time in any sport. Not the people who write about it, and certainly not the people who actually draft for a living.

Your judging human beings, being wrong some of the time is built in to the process.

I've never understood this argument.

The draft guys like kiper and mcshay are wrong quite a bit. Not only in where a guy will be drafted, but also what kind of pro they will become. There is a reason guys like them aren't employed by an NFL team

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/05/25/equally-inaccurate-an-analysis-of-mel-kiper-jr-and-todd-mcshays-draft-rankings/

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NFL.com is using a different evaluator this year.

 

As I noted in another post,  the fact that they were wrong on Ward shouldn't mean anything.

 

If we're going to discount for being wrong occasionally,  then no one should ever pay any attention to anyone,  but no one is right all the time in any sport.     Not the people who write about it,  and certainly not the people who actually draft for a living.

 

Your judging human beings,  being wrong some of the time is built in to the process.

 

I've never understood this argument.

Its not the argument (from my perspective) its the "ESPN Kiper or Mcshay have so and so as this player rated as such and such round pick so I don't know why you have them going so low or high"...Its not the argument....Its the having a difference of opinion of a draft guru......Its like Kiper or Mcshay said this is going to happen so its etched in stone

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Apparently the colts are in love with this guy. After watching some film on him, I could honestly see the colts taking this guy in the first. He already posses some pretty good sklills, and with Chucks ability to coach up dbs, this kid could be good.

 

Merging your thread with the earlier Randall thread.

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The draft guys like kiper and mcshay are wrong quite a bit. Not only in where a guy will be drafted, but also what kind of pro they will become. There is a reason guys like them aren't employed by an NFL team

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/05/25/equally-inaccurate-an-analysis-of-mel-kiper-jr-and-todd-mcshays-draft-rankings/

 

Given that this "study" only compared the two to what players did on the field,  and did NOT compare them to anyone else,  nor did they even compare them to where the players themselves were drafted.

 

In other words,  were Kiper and McShay wrong about a bunch of guys each year?    Sure.   And they'd be the first two tell you that.    But the study doesn't examine the fact that those guys were picked high and didn't pan out.    In short, the mistakes that Kiper and McShay were making were often the same as the mistakes that actual GM's were making.

 

These two are the highest profile guys because they're on ESPN.    Let's of people like taking shots at them and at ESPN.

 

Sorry,  but I'm not impressed.   I think the study is deeply flawed.    It tells me what I know,  and it doesn't tell me anything I want to know....    and I think it's done that way on purpose....

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Its not the argument (from my perspective) its the "ESPN Kiper or Mcshay have so and so as this player rated as such and such round pick so I don't know why you have them going so low or high"...Its not the argument....Its the having a difference of opinion of a draft guru......Its like Kiper or Mcshay said this is going to happen so its etched in stone

 

I like them, but it's not set in stone for me.

 

I also use NFL.com and I use CBSSports.com which I think has gotten better the last few years, but still lags behind ESPN and NFL.com

 

When I see consensus from all of them, or at least something close to consensus,  then I feel comfortable with what I'm reading and what I post here.

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The draft guys like kiper and mcshay are wrong quite a bit. Not only in where a guy will be drafted, but also what kind of pro they will become. There is a reason guys like them aren't employed by an NFL team

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/05/25/equally-inaccurate-an-analysis-of-mel-kiper-jr-and-todd-mcshays-draft-rankings/

 

Sorry....  I have a few more thoughts and decided to add them in a separate post.

 

Without comparing Kiper/McShay to anyone else,  how is anyone to know how they compare?

 

Maybe they're the best of all those in the media who are doing this?

 

There was no comparison to NFL.com  or to CBSSports,  or Walter Football,  or Draft Geeks or any other website.    As would Lance Zeirlein of NFL.com who does their player profiles.

 

 

Without that context,  there's no way of know how good they are compared to anyone else.

 

And, as I noted with the other post,  they don't even compare the duo to GM's.

 

As to your comment about there's a reason why they're not employed by NFL teams, I'd say this...

 

NFL scouts probably make roughly 100-200k.   That's my rough guess.

 

Kiper and McShay?    Probably make $500k+ perhaps up to a million.

 

Scouts have the daily grind of being out the road and away from their families and staying in motels.

 

Kiper and McShay are home with their families and their daily grind is a 10-12 hour day of doing studio interviews and still knocking out draft related stories.     In other words,  way more money for far less work.  

 

If you're under the impression that they wouldn't get hired as scouts by NFL teams,  I'll simply say I strongly disagree with that view.

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