Ballards really rolling the dice, LT and a 2nd round pick both coming off Achilles injuries which used to be a career ender no doubt about it, and Wentz who may or may not get back to winning football.
I wouldnt be surprised if we regress slightly this year, these moves could work out long term though if both guys recover from their injuries and Wentz settles in to his new team.
I am not in medicine, but the RTP rate on that study is higher than I have seen. which is good. And that's a pretty large sample of players though. Still, 26% not returning is a scary number.
Just an aside...but the Colts now have (3) players returning from Achilles tears this upcoming. At a high level, the odds all three RTP is 44%, right? Somebody that is better with statistics...tell me if I have that wrong.
Even setting aside Mack, who is on a cheap flyer contract, the odds that Dayo and Fisher both RTP is ~53%. That's quite the gamble for a $9.5M and a 2nd round pick.
Of course, that's just odds...and there are medical evaluations that provide a lot more data than a dice roll. But the odds are the still the odds, as both Dayo and Fisher are early in recovery.
Anyways...assuming Fisher is in that 76% RTP...there is also performance to consider. The studies I have read tend to point to a 1.5 year+ recovery time to return to pre-injury performance (assuming they are able to). There won't be enough time to get back to pre-injury performance this season...so he's likely to be 80% of what he was from a performance standpoint last.
Part of me wonders if this is more of a trial run to set up a 2-3 year extension to solidify LT for a few years. They are fine paying $9.5M with the risk...IF they can get a discount on the extension if he gets back.
we just got a younger upgrade over AC who ranks higher in both run and pass and a better tackle . He will be ready colts know he will only miss 3 or 4 games in a 17 game season . we lost AC for many games last year and with bad backups did fine still 2nd least sacks allowed in the nfl . now we have much better backup depth and tevi was a starter and holden played great last year shut down the steelers . we will be fine and get a elite tackle be happy our oline is better now than last year by far with much more depth and a better elite tackle . trust in ballard .
Is he significantly more reliable than Fisher though?
I guess that depends what we mean by reliable. Leno's health is less of a concern than Fisher's so he's more reliable in that sense. Fisher's level of play should be higher if he is healthy, however, so he's more reliable in that sense.
I definitely understand the concern but I would have been happy enough with either guy. It's not great but it's going to have to suffice.