Keep in mind Leno was a 7th round pick in 2014 but didn't start full time till 2016. He signed an modest extension in 2017, but then made the Pro Bowl in 2018. Had a bit of a down year in 2019, but rebounded for a good year in 2020. He graded better than AC. IMO, he's the best and healthiest option left of the FA OTs. He hasn't hit 30 yet. Fisher is injured and 30. Okung is 33. Given he's the youngest, healthiest, and rates over 70, he'll be in higher demand, as there are still several teams looking for a LT. If he wanted 9M a year for 2 years, I'd take that in a heartbeat. I just doubt he'll be OK with that.
Keep in mind the Bears pretty much had to cut him as they couldn't afford to keep him. They were negative cap. It's why they drafted Jenkins. And Denver, who is one of the few teams to have more cap space than Indy, is highly interested in Leno.
Fisher coming off that injury is a big dice roll. That will impact his market value. Healing at 30 years old is tough for some guys, especially big uglies.
I don't see Leno taking less than 3 year / 30M. I don't see Fisher taking a one year deal at all. Worst thing he could do is do a one year after an injury, look meh this year, and he's done. He'll want 2-3 and some guarantees. He'll take less per year, but he'll want some security. The team will have most leverage with Okung in terms of $ and duration.
The Paye pick makes a lot of sense but the Dayo pick surprised me. I wanted a left tackle and thought that there were a couple of guys who would have made a lot of sense.
Ballard and co know way more about those players than I do, however, so I'll continue to trust their judgement until they demonstrate that I shouldn't.
I'd rather have two good pass rushers than one good pass rusher and one bad left tackle.
I like the breakdown and agree although i caveat with this:
I don't think Leno or Fisher was 2-3 year deals unless they get what their market is before being cut.
And I do not think CB is going to big against himself to do that.
Leno basically made $8M-$9M each year ($8.8, $5.0, $8.1, $8.1) and was slated to make $9.0M this year before cut.
If the Colts are going to offer him $8-$9M a year I think he would gladly take a 2-3 year deal. But if the Colts are bargain shopping then I think he and Fisher will both be happy to take 1 year deals and prove their worth and re-enter the market next year when there is a lot more money to go around.
Fisher probably won't go for a 2-3 year deal unless he is making $10M+
I would actually ideally like to see us give one of them a 2-3 year deal where we have cost control on a decent contract for a year or two beyond this one.
I think that is a big win if so. More likely scenario has us giving one of them a $6M-$8M deal for a year and then having to either try to extend them if it works out or let them walk if it doesn't.
Best option if healthy - Fisher (will still likely want 2-3 years)
Safest option - Leno (likely wants 3 years min)
Most expensive option - Leno
Cheapest short term option with a level of safety - Okung (PFF predicts a 3 year deal, which I don't see).
IMO, if you don't grab one of those guys, or other quality FA, you'll end up starting Tevi. If you start Tevi, before long you're moving Nelson to LT.... Ballard likely doesn't want to give Leno 3-4 years and high dollars. FIsher comes with risk. IDK...
Here's what PFF says, and how they rank them in terms of FAs available.
In short, Houston had the worst pass rush graded year of his career, but still was top 10 in pass rush win rate. Kerrigan on the other had a career worst year all around, was really lousy vs the run, while many expected a bump up in production per snap due to the reduced role.
If Houston would take a one year deal, I'd rather give him 10M than give Kerrigan 5M.
Don't forget we lost 2 (Autry and Houston) and added 3 (Paye, Dayo, Rochell). So even if Dayo takes longer, we're still even net/net with the addition of Rochell.
I agree he could start over Banogu. As long as Turay is deemed healthy enough to play, he'd be a better passing downs rusher than Kerrigan. Kerrigan wouldn't play on running downs at all for us. He'd be a rotational or depth pass rush specialist at best.