Nfl.com Article: What If Peyton Had Been Healthy This Year?

[GoPats]

Interesting read, and some dissenting opinions.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d825458c2/article/healthy-manning-might-not-have-impacted-afc-south-race?module=HP11_content_stream

Though the Colts finally notched a win in Week 14, the 2011 season has been nothing short of a major disappointment for the perennial playoff contenders. It begs the question: how would Indianapolis have fared this season if Peyton Manning had been healthy? Would the Texans still have been the AFC South champs? Would the Colts have challenged for the AFC’s top seed? Or would the same depleted roster still have been exposed?

Check out the link for responses from four columnists.

Personally I think Kirwan is right... I think the Indy-Houston game would be for the division title, essentially.

[The Fish]

I'm of the opinion that the Colts would have won the south easily with P. The Texans better enjoy their first loss in the postseason this year.

[GoPats]

I'm of the opinion that the Colts would have won the south easily with P. The Texans better enjoy their first loss in the postseason this year.

I agree, except for the "easily" part. I still think the Texans would have given you guys a run for your money, not unlike how the Jets have been harder to get past for the Patriots the last couple of years.

[gspdx]

It's funny that some of these guys are saying this team wouldn't have competed for the division title even with a healthy Manning. I guess I would like to know what is different from last year? Last year we had no running game (less than this year) and a weak defense with LOTS of injuries. We were starting guys in the defense that started the season on the couch. I think the Colts would contend for the AFC South title, probably win it, but be a little weak for a playoff run.

[mightisright]

^agreed. I think we'd have made the playoffs, barely secured the division title, then been another one and done in the playoffs. But that's just me!

[That Guy]

AT the very least, we would have beaten out NYJ for a wild card spot...

[Go Blue Horseshoe]

What if Santa brings me 10 million dollars and a new muscle car for Christmas? It would be sweet...

[deedub75]

I think we'd be 10-6 or 9-7 with Peyton playing. We were 10-6 last season barely making the playoffs. Texans are much improved over last season and I think they would have won the division. If it were not for a late collapse by the Jags we wouldn't have won the division last year. 10-6 or 9-7 would probably have gotten us a 6 seed this year with a loss in the wild card round.

[Larry Horseman]

It's interesting to hear the "experts" take on this. La Confora and Brooks both still say we have don't have a run game. The run game is actually much, much better than it has been in years, we just don't use it like we should considering we don't have a competent QB. I mean, if we can run effectively, which we have pretty much all season, without even mediocre QB play, think how we could run it with PM behind center. Also, La Confora says we have a "decaying offensive line." We have three young starters and two vets. What I've taken out of this year is that our OL and running game are improving, but there are still plenty of holes to fill on this team, namely at QB, interior DL, and defensive secondary.

The Colts would have between 9 and 12 wins with PM. No doubt in my mind they would have won Clev, Pitt, TB, KC, Cin, JAX, and Carolina. We have beaten Ten once. That is 8 wins with two winnable games to play. I also think we win at least one out of NE/Balt/Ten on the road. This is all educated guesses, but we had a cake schedule weeks 2-6 that would be guaranteed wins with PM since we nearly won all of them with Curtis.

[JoKeR]

These guys don't know the answer to what if anymore than we do. Did any of them say we would be SB bound or make it to AFCC? No, they are just rehashing that the window is closing, which it is, but they've been saying it for years now.

[Superman]

These guys are so lazy. Same old tired arguments that they've been spouting for the last six years, predicting that the Colts were going to fall off. It took a Manning injury for that to happen.

I believe that our offensive line is better this year, both in pass protection and run blocking. Our defensive line was better at the beginning of the season, and then injuries hit. Secondary is worse. Linebackers are better. Receivers I'd have to argue are the same, but without a decent quarterback, there's no way to tell. I don't get how our team is worse this year, with the exception of the secondary.

But it's not just these national guys. Nate Dunlevy spent all summer saying that the Colts weren't going to be good this season. I disagreed then, and he wrote a piece a couple weeks ago saying that he was probably wrong about both lines and we still could have been a good team.

[IMissMarvin]

9-7 tops even with Manning. Texans beat us the past two seasons with Manning, and I think they'd still have won at least one of the two meetings this year as well. Houston have all around much more depth IMO, they've had injuries to 4 of their key players - Foster, Shaub, Johnson, and Williams - 3 are still out, and they still get the job done. I know Sunday wasn't pretty against Carolina LOL, but every team has a bad game here and there and they were riding a 7 or 8 game win streak prior to that game if my memory serves me correct.

[MTC]

I'd think we go 10-6 or 9-7, IMO. The defense will still struggle. Our offense would do just fine with Peyton.

[Girlzarefanstoo]

For me it's really simple... take a look at what these same kind of guys predicted at the beginning of the season for the league and then look where we are today. "Conventional wisdom" is anything but accurate in predicting the outcome of sports games. Therefore it doesn't really matter to me what they say now. The only thing we'll ever know is next year after Manning is back on the field and we see who is with him there.

[doc108]

I know we will never really know but our(Texans) D is finally good enough to stop your offense and our run game would destroy you. Next year even with Peyton we will win AFC South

[Fx Stryker]

No different than what they always say. Oh the Texans are the team to beat this year. Always counting out the Colts. Gruden is the only analyst I ever heard say good things about Peyton and the Colts.

[Fx Stryker]

I know we will never really know but our(Texans) D is finally good enough to stop your offense and our run game would destroy you. Next year even with Peyton we will win AFC South

Before you start calling your Texans elite look at who you played first. Your wins come on teams that are combine 65-84, and your loses come to teams combined 33-23. You got blown out by the Panthers too. You haven't had a convincing win over a decent team. You beat the Steelers when their o-line was shaky and Atlanta has been an on/off team for years. Not a solid good team.

[Tsarquise]

9-7 tops even with Manning. Texans beat us the past two seasons with Manning, and I think they'd still have won at least one of the two meetings this year as well. Houston have all around much more depth IMO, they've had injuries to 4 of their key players - Foster, Shaub, Johnson, and Williams - 3 are still out, and they still get the job done. I know Sunday wasn't pretty against Carolina LOL, but every team has a bad game here and there and they were riding a 7 or 8 game win streak prior to that game if my memory serves me correct.

The Texans only beat us once last year and once in 2006... That is it. Prior to this season anyways...

The Colts possibly would have been the #1 seed in the conference IMO.

This team isn't much different than the 09 team. Same players.

[doc108]

Before you start calling your Texans elite look at who you played first. Your wins come on teams that are combine 65-84, and your loses come to teams combined 33-23. You got blown out by the Panthers too. You haven't had a convincing win over a decent team. You beat the Steelers when their o-line was shaky and Atlanta has been an on/off team for years. Not a solid good team.

Never said we were elite but we are on the cusp. A good Wr in the next draft and maybe another CB to put on the other side of Joseph and we can compete with anybody. I think we get a playoff win and then after that I don't know. Also you can't contribute our success to bad teams and excuses. We beat an elite Pittsburgh team and a very good Falcons team. Also we beat an above average Bengals team. Not a big win but a solid win. Any dipstick can just write off our success as a weak schedule but we have dominated most of our games. Our D can shut out nearly anybody and our O can still score with Foster Tate Andre and Joel Dreesen. You have no real arguments and are ticked that the Colts are terrible and reliant on one person while we can lose half of our stars and continue to beat good teams.

[doc108]

The Texans only beat us once last year and once in 2006... That is it. Prior to this season anyways...

The Colts possibly would have been the #1 seed in the conference IMO.

This team isn't much different than the 09 team. Same players.

Your team might be the same but our Defense is much better than last year. We could definitely score on you and hold you to 20 points or less even with Manning. We still would've won the division had you had Manning.

[RozFlamesAlly]

I'm of the opinion that the Colts would have won the south easily with P. The Texans better enjoy their first loss in the postseason this year.

Same

[Captain Americolt]

Your team might be the same but our Defense is much better than last year. We could definitely score on you and hold you to 20 points or less even with Manning. We still would've won the division had you had Manning.

This forum is not for arguments. Your Texans team is good, but not as good as what your hyping them up to be. Like another poster said earlier, the pittsburgh o-line was crap. Falcons have been on/off this year. And wow the bengals? with a rookie qb? They are a solid team, but nothing to boast about. Didnt the colts win in the 2nd 09' meeting like 34-17 or somethng? We had players all over IR that year and you had your Foster, Dreeson, and Schaub and Andre.

And BTW for the stuff in bold, You have no way of knowing that.

[Tsarquise]

Your team might be the same but our Defense is much better than last year. We could definitely score on you and hold you to 20 points or less even with Manning. We still would've won the division had you had Manning.

That's your opinion... You don't know that. We will never know.

Collins gave you the ball so many times. Do you think Manning would have done that?

But seriously... The Texans aren't elite.

[GoColts8818]

Well let's say we had Manning and review the games:

Week One Houston: Manning probably takes Bullitt's INT to start the game and puts it in the endzone or at least gets points out of it, he also probably doesn't fumble twice inside his own 20. It would have been a very different game but for sake of arguement I would still say it's a loss

Week Two Cleveland: Collins did nothing in this game till late and we lost by 8. Give us Manning and we probably move the ball and win this game.

Week three Steelers: It took a last second field goal for them to beat us again with our QBs doing nothing till late and included in that was a huge fumble strip that Mannng probably doesn't do. Colts win with Manning.

Week four Bucs: Close game till late. A decent game from Painter but most of that was due to more of Garcon than him. Manning probably keeps drives a live and the defense doesn't wear out Colts win with Manning.

Week five KC: Colts got off to a roaring start the game slipped away when again the QB couldn't do anything in the second half. Manning probably doesn't let that happen. Colts win this game with Manning.

Week six Bengals: Close game till late again with so so play from the QB spot, the defense wore out late and did them in. Again with Manning probably doesn't happen and turns a few of those field goals into TDs

Week seven Saints: Manning makes it not 63-7 but not a win.

Week eight Titans: A few key turnovers in this game hurt the Colts really bad still a close game an with Manning it's probably close late Colts win this game with Manning

Week nine Falcons: Defense played well after the quick start by the Falcons but the offense couldn't do anything all day long. Even so I am not sure Manning would have been enough to over come the 17 points they were down before they could blink this is a loss.

Week ten Jags: The Colts get any kind offense that game they win. Manning beats the Jags at home.

Week tweleve Panthers: Again Painter did nothing for three 1/2 quarters. We get better QB play and the Colts win this game.

Week thirteen Pats: Orlovsky put over 250 yards vs. the Pats D what do you think Manning does to it? Colts win this game with Manning

Week fourteen Ravens: This is hard to tell because the line was so bad but Manning seem to know how to the Colts out of those spots vs. the Ravens. I think with Manning they Colts win as they have the Ravens number but I can't back it up by pointng to just one thing so I will say a los.

Week fifthteen Titans: We beat the Titans without Maning we beat them with Manning.

So that would have us at 10-4 right now with two games to go. They would be right there in the playoff race for homefield and probably facing an AFC South Title game on Thursday. I say with Manning they beat a depleated Texans team at home and they beat a bad Jags team on the road to finish 12-4.

[Coltssouth]

You have no real arguments and are ticked that the Colts are terrible and reliant on one person while we can lose half of our stars and continue to beat good teams.

Easy please. We enjoy other fans coming to discuss their team, but not slamming our team in the process.

[Captain Americolt]

Well let's say we had Manning and review the games:

Week One Houston: Manning probably takes Bullitt's INT to start the game and puts it in the endzone or at least gets points out of it, he also probably doesn't fumble twice inside his own 20. It would have been a very different game but for sake of arguement I would still say it's a loss

Week Two Cleveland: Collins did nothing in this game till late and we lost by 8. Give us Manning and we probably move the ball and win this game.

Week three Steelers: It took a last second field goal for them to beat us again with our QBs doing nothing till late and included in that was a huge fumble strip that Mannng probably doesn't do. Colts win with Manning.

Week four Bucs: Close game till late. A decent game from Painter but most of that was due to more of Garcon than him. Manning probably keeps drives a live and the defense doesn't wear out Colts win with Manning.

Week five KC: Colts got off to a roaring start the game slipped away when again the QB couldn't do anything in the second half. Manning probably doesn't let that happen. Colts win this game with Manning.

Week six Bengals: Close game till late again with so so play from the QB spot, the defense wore out late and did them in. Again with Manning probably doesn't happen and turns a few of those field goals into TDs

Week seven Saints: Manning makes it not 63-7 but not a win.

Week eight Titans: A few key turnovers in this game hurt the Colts really bad still a close game an with Manning it's probably close late Colts win this game with Manning

Week nine Falcons: Defense played well after the quick start by the Falcons but the offense couldn't do anything all day long. Even so I am not sure Manning would have been enough to over come the 17 points they were down before they could blink this is a loss.

Week ten Jags: The Colts get any kind offense that game they win. Manning beats the Jags at home.

Week tweleve Panthers: Again Painter did nothing for three 1/2 quarters. We get better QB play and the Colts win this game.

Week thirteen Pats: Orlovsky put over 250 yards vs. the Pats D what do you think Manning does to it? Colts win this game with Manning

Week fourteen Ravens: This is hard to tell because the line was so bad but Manning seem to know how to the Colts out of those spots vs. the Ravens. I think with Manning they Colts win as they have the Ravens number but I can't back it up by pointng to just one thing so I will say a los.

Week fifthteen Titans: We beat the Titans without Maning we beat them with Manning.

So that would have us at 10-4 right now with two games to go. They would be right there in the playoff race for homefield and probably facing an AFC South Title game on Thursday. I say with Manning they beat a depleated Texans team at home and they beat a bad Jags team on the road to finish 12-4.

Sounds about right to me. Like your post.

[Tsarquise]

Well let's say we had Manning and review the games:

Week One Houston: Manning probably takes Bullitt's INT to start the game and puts it in the endzone or at least gets points out of it, he also probably doesn't fumble twice inside his own 20. It would have been a very different game but for sake of arguement I would still say it's a loss

Week Two Cleveland: Collins did nothing in this game till late and we lost by 8. Give us Manning and we probably move the ball and win this game.

Week three Steelers: It took a last second field goal for them to beat us again with our QBs doing nothing till late and included in that was a huge fumble strip that Mannng probably doesn't do. Colts win with Manning.

Week four Bucs: Close game till late. A decent game from Painter but most of that was due to more of Garcon than him. Manning probably keeps drives a live and the defense doesn't wear out Colts win with Manning.

Week five KC: Colts got off to a roaring start the game slipped away when again the QB couldn't do anything in the second half. Manning probably doesn't let that happen. Colts win this game with Manning.

Week six Bengals: Close game till late again with so so play from the QB spot, the defense wore out late and did them in. Again with Manning probably doesn't happen and turns a few of those field goals into TDs

Week seven Saints: Manning makes it not 63-7 but not a win.

Week eight Titans: A few key turnovers in this game hurt the Colts really bad still a close game an with Manning it's probably close late Colts win this game with Manning

Week nine Falcons: Defense played well after the quick start by the Falcons but the offense couldn't do anything all day long. Even so I am not sure Manning would have been enough to over come the 17 points they were down before they could blink this is a loss.

Week ten Jags: The Colts get any kind offense that game they win. Manning beats the Jags at home.

Week tweleve Panthers: Again Painter did nothing for three 1/2 quarters. We get better QB play and the Colts win this game.

Week thirteen Pats: Orlovsky put over 250 yards vs. the Pats D what do you think Manning does to it? Colts win this game with Manning

Week fourteen Ravens: This is hard to tell because the line was so bad but Manning seem to know how to the Colts out of those spots vs. the Ravens. I think with Manning they Colts win as they have the Ravens number but I can't back it up by pointng to just one thing so I will say a los.

Week fifthteen Titans: We beat the Titans without Maning we beat them with Manning.

So that would have us at 10-4 right now with two games to go. They would be right there in the playoff race for homefield and probably facing an AFC South Title game on Thursday. I say with Manning they beat a depleated Texans team at home and they beat a bad Jags team on the road to finish 12-4.

Yeah pretty good. I agree. Although I think the Saints game would be very different. The reason why they put up soooo many points is that the offense didn't do anything. The saints defense isn't all that great either perhaps a shoot out but a Colts win?

[cmgww]

And the "experts" fail to point out that with Manning, the D isn't on the field nearly as much....leading to less probability of D injuries. It's a domino effect. The D has been "exposed" this year, but in most part b/c the offense has repeatedly forced them onto the field with 3 and outs over and over. That leads to a small D wearing down, and that's when injuries occur. I'm not saying we'd be 100% healthy if Manning were playing, but I think some of the injuries wouldn't have happened simply b/c the D wouldn't have been on the field nearly as long. The D for the most part has played well enough early on only to fade due to fatigue late in games (TD, Steelers, Cincy, etc.)

And, with an improved run game, Manning would have led a more balanced offense...and the play action would have been pretty devastating at times w/ Garcon. Look at what Pierre has done with Painter and Dan, imagine the season with Manning.

I say overall probably 12-4

[Andy]

Week 1 Texans: Win... They scored 14 points when they got the ball inside our 20. We win 28-23

Week 2 Browns: Win... we only lost by 9 to the Browns

Week 3 Steelers: Win... We only lost by 3

Week 4 Bucs: Win.... Only lost by 7 and they had the TOP advantage. PM would have picked em apart

Week 5 Chiefs: Win... Lead for a good part of the game plus they had a big comeback. We win big

Week 6 Bengals: Win.... only lost by 10 and that's off some stupid turnovers

Week 7 Saints: Loss.... Too good plus it's in NO

Week 8 Titans: Win.... the Titans were awful on offense and they had 7 points off a block punt.

Week 9 Falcons: Loss...They just played well everywhere plus it was in ATL

Week 10 Jags: Easy Win... They only scored 17 points. You're telling me PM can't score more than 17 points

Week 12 Panthers: Win... Only lost by 8 and PM would have picked that awful D apart

Week 13 Patriots: Loss.... Orlovsky played great but he had a lot of the points in garbage time. The Pats barely win.

Week 14: Ravens: Loss....They were too good everywhere.

Week 15: Titans: Win... doesn't make a difference now

Week 16: Texans: Win... in Indy and they're D is weaker (but still very good) without Wade and some key injuries. Close win

Week 17: Jaguars: Win... they're not very good

Based on my predictions, the Colts go 12-4 with PM.

[Peytongirl]

Easy please. We enjoy other fans coming to discuss their team, but not slamming our team in the process.

Yes, to reiterate what CS is saying here...we welcome fans of all teams, including those of our weekly rivals. But it leans toward the smack and trolling side of things when you (Doc) come to a Colts' forum and immediately call our team terrible and insult us.

We don't "do" smack here. If you want to have a reasonable football discussion about the game or anything football related, cool. But please remember that you are a guest in our house, one that we have welcomed. Please show the same courtesy.

Thank you!

PG

[doc108]

Week 1 Texans: Win...They scored 14 points when they got the ball inside our 20. We win 28-23 I don't think so. We always seem to come out amped on week 1 especially against ya'll.

Week 2 Browns: Win... we only lost by 9 to the Browns Didn't watch most of these games so can't comment

Week 3 Steelers: Win... We only lost by 3

Week 4 Bucs: Win.... Only lost by 7 and they had the TOP advantage. PM would have picked em apart

Week 5 Chiefs: Win... Lead for a good part of the game plus they had a big comeback. We win big

Week 6 Bengals: Win.... only lost by 10 and that's off some stupid turnovers

Week 7 Saints: Loss.... Too good plus it's in NO Not necessarily about the game but this is a reason I don't like them at all. When they drove the score up so badly on you it was like they were trying to prove that they could beat a team with nothing left to play for by the middle of the third corner. The saints were ******** in this one.

Week 8 Titans: Win.... the Titans were awful on offense and they had 7 points off a block punt.

Week 9 Falcons: Loss...They just played well everywhere plus it was in ATL

Week 10 Jags: Easy Win... They only scored 17 points. You're telling me PM can't score more than 17 points

Week 12 Panthers: Win... Only lost by 8 and PM would have picked that awful D apart

Week 13 Patriots: Loss.... Orlovsky played great but he had a lot of the points in garbage time. The Pats barely win.

Week 14: Ravens: Loss....They were too good everywhere.

Week 15: Titans: Win... doesn't make a difference now Thank you for beating them. They were wailing so badly in their MB it made me LOL

Week 16: Texans: Win... in Indy and they're D is weaker (but still very good) without Wade and some key injuries. Close win Don't know about this one it's just speculation but I think we sweep you because we have the perfect team to beat a high-powered offense. Good running game to tire out you D and keep PM on the bench and a defense that is good in not giving up yardage and forcing turnovers. I call it a win for us but again just pure speculation.

Week 17: Jaguars: Win... they're not very good

Based on my predictions, the Colts go 12-4 with PM.

My replies are bolded above

I really wish Peyton would've played this year for two reasons. 1. It would've made the AFC South a lot more interesting. 2. I would've also liked too see our improved D go up against him.

[RIFF]

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/12477/the-collapse-of-the-colts-has-been-years-in-the-making

"What if Peyton was healthy this year?" Well . . . recent years show an unavoidable collapse

[JPPT1974]

Or what could had been if Peyton was healthy in 2011! So many predictions!

[buffalo34]

I don't buy into the "Colts have been delincing" thing that I hear from Colts fans and non-Colts fans alike. Didn't we hear the same things going into the 09 season after the Colts came off a bumpy 08 season, and then they go on to the Super Bowl and a game and a half of 16-0?

Peyton would've had exactly the same supporting cast as last year. Go-to guys Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie. A newfound deep threat in Garcon. A great TE duo Clark and Tamme. My favorite pass blocker in the game (lol) Addai. And hasn't Donald Brown turned out to be not so half-bad this season?

Also, I think the defense would at least look considerably better if they had an offense putting up points on the board week in and week out.

Their record IMO with Peyton is pretty close to being inverted of what it is right now.

[manningstheman]

I dont know. You have to remember that this was a shortened preseason and summer work outs. You would think the teams that had the most time together already would have been the teams to pick to win the divisions. So, the Colts would be one of them. No major transactions, pretty much the same team. I would say they would have easily won the AFC south. 11-5. Then the playoffs can never be predicted for the Colts. lol.