Colts are Super Bowl favorites at 5-1.

[krunk]

I don't want to even discuss Superbowl favorite odds right now.  Show me the on field improvements that we've set out for and lets win a game against the Pats and then I'll change my mind.

[New Zealands #1 Colts Fan]

In New Zealand Colts are 12-1

 

Seahawks 5-1

Patriots 6-1

Packers 8-1

Denver 12-1

Jaguars 200-1

[chrisfarley]

That's like saying Tom Crean should be considered for coach of the year before the majority of the year plays out (Dakich-ism)

[OLD FAN MAN]

Don't worry...Frank Gore is an elite back..he really is

was elite

[SteelDragon]

We have a definite upgrade at RB and a medium upgrade at WR. A healthy Mathis and the addition of Cole gives us a decent pass rushing tandem. Otherwise, we're still pretty much the same team that was dismantled in Foxboro in the AFCCG. I know we still have the draft, but there's still alot of Ifs for us to be considered Superbowl faves. If we do win, I would have to believe Grigson nails this draft.

[dw49]

I think betting must work a lot differently in the US... to your post yes agree the initial odds must be set somewhere by the bookies and they might go over under what a realistic gambling odds (not "true" odds) to encourage or discourage money on that bet. Past that though it's the money that moves the odds mostly, now I'd agree that roster moves etc. are probably what drives where the money goes. 

 

As for your horse racing analogy if a lot of public money goes on a 100-1 shot then it's odds will fall, simple as. You're right though that they often don't fall enough that if it does come in the bookies can get burnt. Famous example is Frankie Dettori's "Magnificent 7":

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/general/racing-the-day-dettoris-magnificent-seven-left-the-bookies-in-tears-417195.html

This is slightly more complicated in that people won mostly on accumulators rather than a series of straight up bets, you also have to factor in that you are able to lay bets at SP which further muddies the water. 

 

I will admit that bookie gambling isn't my topic of expertise, however if you ever want boring about Casino gambling (former Croupier) . 

 

There is a school of thought though that in a contest like the NFL or say the World Cup you should always have a low bet on the biggest outsiders as the bookies will often offer stupidly crazy odds to encourage bets and although they might not have a big chance of winning it's actually probably better than the odds offered. For example I'll have a low amount bet on the Jags/Titans/Bucs probably, not expecting to win but if they do.... 

 

Put it another way, I applied this theory to World Cups and Euro championships. I hit 18 in 2002 and can expect to probably live to say 70, so I can expect to see maybe 13 tournaments in my lifetime? Normally I'll have a low bet on the top 2 outsiders, say 5 units. That's 130 units in my lifetime, not a huge amount of money. However when one does come in.... like when I bet on Greece in 2004 at 250/1... then my return over a lifetime is crazy. 

 

Sorry for the waffle. 

 

 

This was the point I was trying to make. The books won't just totally move off the line they feel is correct in order to try to "balance " the money. Often they hold the majority of money on one team with hardly anything on the other team. In football , it's often the number that causes big "imbalances." The books will be very reluctant to move off numbers like 2.5 , 3, 6.5 and 7 as they open them selves up for a middle.

 

This is quoting a big vegas book on the Duke Utah college game last night. 77% of the money was bet on Duke.....It came down to a last second free throw that buried Vegas on that game. 

 

 

The favored Blue Devils were a popular public bet. Two hours before tipoff, 82 percent of all bets and 77 percent of the money wagered was on Duke at the William Hill sportsbook. Other books reported similar heavy action on the Blue Devils.

"Huge, six figures," William Hill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said of the swing at his shop. "Public had a very good day."

[OhioColtsGirl]

Grr I'd rather be under dogs

Sometimes I think it's better to be underdogs