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Would you Trade up?


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As Boiler said. If Shelton or Beasley is falling out of the top 10, then by all means YES. Both of those guys are going to be franchise type, pro bowlers IMO, so I think it'd be worth it. Actually I would be more willing to trade up for Beasley because we could probably get Jordan Phillips at 29, or by just trading up 2 or 3 spots. I'd do it for Fowler too.

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No. The draft is a crap shoot so get as many picks as you can.

 

Only somewhat.  Just because a person is drafted in the first round does not mean necessarily that he will be better then someone drafted in the 2nd, 3rd or even later rounds.  However probability shows that *MOST LIKELY* a person selected in the first round will be better then those selected in later rounds.

 

However at the same time calling the entire thing a crap shoot and advocating for as many picks as possible is silly.  First of all we could get tons of picks by just continually trading down until we own most of the 5th 6th and 7th rounds.  However that would not likely be good for us.  

 

Secondly if one goes on Wikipedia and looks at a draft from 3 or more years ago one can see clearly the vast majority of the pro-bowl players coming in the first and 2nd rounds with only a few coming in later rounds.  

 

Essentially the scouts are right significantly more often then not. . . however since hundreds of guys are scouted, drafted and try out as rookies to make an NFL team every single year. . . there are always going to be exceptions where the scouts are found to be wrong . . . both in believing a player will be extremely successful when in reality he is very unsuccessful (Trent Richardson) and in believing a player will see very little to no success when the player turns out to be extremely successful (Tom Brady)

 

In the end you do have the question of quality vs. quantity, but it's always a balancing act.  One could through a series of trade downs get a large number of picks in the late rounds obtaining a ton of quantity but the quality of the majority of those players is likely to be low.  At the same time one could trade their entire draft for 1 high pick which history has shown is also a bad idea.

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Only somewhat.  Just because a person is drafted in the first round does not mean necessarily that he will be better then someone drafted in the 2nd, 3rd or even later rounds.  However probability shows that *MOST LIKELY* a person selected in the first round will be better then those selected in later rounds.

 

However at the same time calling the entire thing a crap shoot and advocating for as many picks as possible is silly.  First of all we could get tons of picks by just continually trading down until we own most of the 5th 6th and 7th rounds.  However that would not likely be good for us.  

 

Secondly if one goes on Wikipedia and looks at a draft from 3 or more years ago one can see clearly the vast majority of the pro-bowl players coming in the first and 2nd rounds with only a few coming in later rounds.  

 

Essentially the scouts are right significantly more often then not. . . however since hundreds of guys are scouted, drafted and try out as rookies to make an NFL team every single year. . . there are always going to be exceptions where the scouts are found to be wrong . . . both in believing a player will be extremely successful when in reality he is very unsuccessful (Trent Richardson) and in believing a player will see very little to no success when the player turns out to be extremely successful (Tom Brady)

 

In the end you do have the question of quality vs. quantity, but it's always a balancing act.  One could through a series of trade downs get a large number of picks in the late rounds obtaining a ton of quantity but the quality of the majority of those players is likely to be low.  At the same time one could trade their entire draft for 1 high pick which history has shown is also a bad idea.

Silly? The GM for the 49ers, one of the most talented teams in the league, said the same thing.

You second paragraph is perposterous so there is not point in responding to it.

I never said trade out of the first three rounds....duh. Not sure why you are taking what I said to an extreme.

Scouts are right more often than they are wrong? Lol....not even close. If a scout was right 50% of the time he would be the greatest scout ever.

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I wouldn't trade up for Landon Collins.

If he actually does clear past Pittsburgh/Cincy/Philly there's a decent chance he'd fall the rest of the way to us.

But we're gonna have to primarily shore up Safety thru free agency and/or a later pick.

If Collins is on the board at #29 and we take him...I could live with that but I hope we don't trade up for him. That's a pricey move.

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Depends on how you value things

 

We have 8 total picks in this draft.

 

You could say you want quality over quantity and trade 1-2 of those picks away to move up for someone. Personally for me, I don't really see anyone the Colts should move up for besides maybe Armstead or Phillips if they fall a few picks in front of us. But that's if you say you'd rather have 6 players you feel really good about, as opposed to 8, where 2-3 might wash out eventually.

 

Or if you're a GM like Grigson who can find value late, and you trust your ability to identify talent in the later rounds, you stay put and draft 8 really good players who all have a chance to become starters. Imagine if 4 of those players can come in now and help your team. That's an automatic win there.

 

Personally I would stay put. Only way I would trade up would be if there's a guy you really like in the 5th, so we send our 6th and 7th round pick to move up. Plus the compensatory picks haven't been distributed yet and that changes the whole playing field.

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Depends on how you value things

 

We have 8 total picks in this draft.

 

You could say you want quality over quantity and trade 1-2 of those picks away to move up for someone. Personally for me, I don't really see anyone the Colts should move up for besides maybe Armstead or Phillips if they fall a few picks in front of us. But that's if you say you'd rather have 6 players you feel really good about, as opposed to 8, where 2-3 might wash out eventually.

 

Or if you're a GM like Grigson who can find value late, and you trust your ability to identify talent in the later rounds, you stay put and draft 8 really good players who all have a chance to become starters. Imagine if 4 of those players can come in now and help your team. That's an automatic win there.

 

Personally I would stay put. Only way I would trade up would be if there's a guy you really like in the 5th, so we send our 6th and 7th round pick to move up. Plus the compensatory picks haven't been distributed yet and that changes the whole playing field.

 

Do we have a 7th round pick? I keep reading that we do not. 

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Depends on how you value things

 

We have 8 total picks in this draft.

 

You could say you want quality over quantity and trade 1-2 of those picks away to move up for someone. Personally for me, I don't really see anyone the Colts should move up for besides maybe Armstead or Phillips if they fall a few picks in front of us. But that's if you say you'd rather have 6 players you feel really good about, as opposed to 8, where 2-3 might wash out eventually.

 

Or if you're a GM like Grigson who can find value late, and you trust your ability to identify talent in the later rounds, you stay put and draft 8 really good players who all have a chance to become starters. Imagine if 4 of those players can come in now and help your team. That's an automatic win there.

 

Personally I would stay put. Only way I would trade up would be if there's a guy you really like in the 5th, so we send our 6th and 7th round pick to move up. Plus the compensatory picks haven't been distributed yet and that changes the whole playing field.

 

According to these websites we have the 7th for Rayford, and Over the Cap is projecting us for a 7th rnd compensatory pick (possibly two 7ths if you read the notes).

 

http://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/Future/Colts.htm

 

http://overthecap.com/projecting-the-compensatory-draft-picks-for-2015/

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I would stand pat at #29 if, a ILB, O-line or D-line is there.  I would not stop the fall of any player falling out of the top 10 (see Werner).

 

If none of the above mentioned positions are there at #29, I would look to trade down.  I can see a team wanting to get back into the lower 1st round to get 1 of the next tier of QBs.

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