Polian: Colts can't look to rookie QB for quick fix [Merge]

[Moncrief]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d824ffd0c/article/polian-colts-cant-look-to-rookie-qb-for-quick-fix-in-2012

"Even if we were to draft a marquee guy in the first round, he's not going to come in and contribute immediately unless he's a rookie running back," Polian said. "It takes time is the point I want to make."

[The Peytonator]

What is he talking about???

So apparently number one picks don't contribute in their first year unless they're a running back. I guess Andy Dalton (2nd rounder if I'm not mistaken) isn't contributing at all. Sounds like he'll probably draft a running back with that number 1 pick.

[BleedingBlue]

From Polian:

"Even if we were to draft a marquee guy in the first round, he's not going to come in and contribute immediately unless he's a rookie running back," Polian said. "It takes time is the point I want to make."

Are we throwing away the opportunity to make this team an instant superbowl contender because we've got Luck fever? I will always assume Peyton will be back because he will the nerves in his neck to heal. That said...

We have three huge needs

Offense

- Running Game

Defense

- Stop the Run

- Ability to go man coverage on Pass plays

Why our secondary can't do man coverage.

injury to Powers?...but really it was when Hayden left because we couldn't afford him was the start of our secondary woes. With Powers and Hayden we were ok.

So why are we going to take a rookie QB that will sit and take money that could be used to keep players like Kelvin Hayden.

Lets now look at our defense against the run

Sure brackett is the heart of the D - a vocal captain - is hurt and that is effecting us big time.

But we haven't been drafting defensively and its been hurting us. We're paying for that now. We have the two best pass rushers in the game, but if we cant stop 1st and 2nd down runs then there is no 3rd and long to unleash the bookends.

If we trade the Luck Pick, we can draft some bigger guys for the middle, our weakest point of attack on the Defense. Bullit and Bracket come back with the new talent and we instantly have a revised D.

Free up some capital to pay some of these guys too.

Now lets look at our running game.

I love Addai. Hes a great blocker, good avg and he never turns the ball over....

However, he lacks explosiveness and durability.

I would rather draft Trent Richardson and see an immediate improvement in our running game, then to draft Luck and see improvement in the QB bench.

But we need a backup QB look at this year...

I agree we need a backup, but half the teams in the NFL have sub-par starters. THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS IN THE NFL IS YOU HAVE A PROVEN GREAT QB AS A STARTER, a Brees a Manning or a Rodgers...THATS IT. There are plenty of busted 2006 draft picks that are backups...lienart, young etc... I'm sure we can always pick up a Matt Leinart on the cheap. So many guys go bust at NFL level. Unless you are already proven, there is no guarantee. Lets face facts, Manning will take every snap at practice, in this system we won't even find out if Luck is any good until 2016 at the soonest.

in Conclusion..

You trade one #1 (QB) pick for 2-3 #1 (position) picks and percentage wise you have a better chance of one of them achieving super star greatness.

Luck will not so much as take a snap in practice for 2-3 years.

I'd rather see Richardson in the backfield next year than Luck on the bench.

IMO, If our pick isn't going to make us better instantly, then its a wasted pick.

[Jay305]

Absolutely not I'm all for trading down but not for a runningback........

[JoKeR]

Colts still have other picks after Luck, and he is the best value for that pick. Just don't be too mad if they pick him.

[JoKeR]

Absolutely not I'm all for trading down but not for a runningback........

I'd support trading down for extra picks if the Colts still pick a top QB prospect.

I'd be upset if he took a RB.

[dn4192]

This draft is in the hands of Peyton Manning, plain and simple. If Polian doesn't see massive improvement and playability out of Peyton before the draft I think he will go with Luck and use the other picks to add to the defense or take best player available at each spot. IF Peyton shows he is back 100% I think there is a "chance" he trades the pick and goes for 1 last run with Peyton over the final few years.

[Moncrief]

I had made a thread similar to this but it was more directed to the people that think Luck will be our starting QB next year. Here is the link.http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d824ffd0c/article/polian-colts-cant-look-to-rookie-qb-for-quick-fix-in-2012

[Jaric]

If we do draft Luck, and keep Peyton, and we don't give luck any practice snaps for 3 years, our front office and coaching staff should be committed. That's absolute lunacy.

[FireJimCaldwell]

What is he talking about???

So apparently number one picks don't contribute in their first year unless they're a running back. I guess Andy Dalton (2nd rounder if I'm not mistaken) isn't contributing at all. Sounds like he'll probably draft a running back with that number 1 pick.

I took it that if he takes Luck he won't be contributing because he will be standing there on the sideline the whole year. You look at 2-3 marquee positions. QB RB WR... A RB would see the field before a WR with this team. If Manning's healthy, a QB might not see the field at all.

[JoKeR]

If we do draft Luck, and keep Peyton, and we don't give luck any practice snaps for 3 years, our front office and coaching staff should be committed. That's absolute lunacy.

Exactly .Im not sure where people think our backups don't get any practice time. Our backups are terrible because that's what they are, not because of a lack of practice.

I have feeling the Colts wont know enough about Manning's neck come draft time and will make a safe pick with Luck. Luck can be traded later.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Exactly .Im not sure where people think our backups don't get any practice time. Our backups are terrible because that's what they are, not because of a lack of practice.

I have feeling the Colts wont know enough about Manning's neck come draft time and will make a safe pick with Luck. Luck can be traded later.

I feel they will know Manning's situation before then and will be able to make an informed decision on which direction to go with the team...

Luck's trade value would drop after the draft.

[BleedingBlue]

Peyton himself. He has admitted that he takes most of the snaps at practice. Hes a perfectionist.

[Mameluc]

i live in adream world but my hope is both manning and freeney's contracts are restructured..so we can keep mathis and should they take the luck way, it doesnt kill our cap space, which imo is a big deal.

but im on the way of thinking that if PM is healthy, we should take the kings ransom a team will offer for Luck

[19colt]

It is a deep draft for QB's there is no reason the Colts can't get a decent backup by the end of the 1st day, especially if they trade the first pick for more 1st day picks.

[jskinnz]

What is he talking about???

So apparently number one picks don't contribute in their first year unless they're a running back. I guess Andy Dalton (2nd rounder if I'm not mistaken) isn't contributing at all. Sounds like he'll probably draft a running back with that number 1 pick.

He is simply saying that RB generally take less development time than players at other positions. And they will absolutely not draft a RB with their # 1 pick.

[Jay305]

Hes just being Polian and spouting off at the mouth.

[Coltsagent]

Its only December right? I dont think I will be able to read this board come Feb, seems like only have 1 topic

[Superman]

If we use our first round draft pick on a running back -- regardless of whether it's the #1 or #32 -- I will officially be over Bill Polian (and whoever else is responsible for the draft decisions). It will be time for him to go.

[MAC]

I'm all for trading the pick, but I wouldn't want a first rounder used on a RB unless it was Barry Sanders or Walter Payton - and even then I'd question the value. This is 2011, not 1985. The Colts already have 3 effective running backs. There are MANY other priorities.

[21isSuperman]

I am strongly against us drafting a RB. We have Carter and Addai (I'm not sure what will happen to Brown...I'm hoping a trade for draft picks). And you can get decent RBs later on in the draft or even as undrafted rookies. Put a solid O-line in front of an average RB and he will look very good. Put an average O-line in front of a very good RB and he will look average

[The Fish]

Trading the 1 pick would be a bigger blunder than this whole season combined. There is no doubt in my mind, feel free to disagree if you need to though.

[Superman]

I am strongly against us drafting a RB. We have Carter and Addai (I'm not sure what will happen to Brown...I'm hoping a trade for draft picks). And you can get decent RBs later on in the draft or even as undrafted rookies. Put a solid O-line in front of an average RB and he will look very good. Put an average O-line in front of a very good RB and he will look average

Brown has been our best back this year. Addai can't stay healthy (he's missed significant time in three of the last four seasons). Carter is a rookie who looks decent, but I think it's fair to say that he has a fumbling problem to get situated. Brown has been solid. Of all the backs we should be looking to get rid of, I don't see why we'd let Brown go, right when he's starting to play well.

[WSO]

Brown has played really well, Addai has looked good when healthy.

[JoKeR]

I feel they will know Manning's situation before then and will be able to make an informed decision on which direction to go with the team...

Luck's trade value would drop after the draft.

Why would his value drop? I dont think it will.

There will be teams that are interested and they will ultimately pay the price, after playing some hardball.

If teams know we have a healthy Manning and Luck, they will bid against each other till Polian gets what he wants.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Why would his value drop? I dont think it will.

There will be teams that are interested and they will ultimately pay the price, after playing some hardball.

If teams know we have a healthy Manning and Luck, they will bid against each other till Polian gets what he wants.

After the draft it isn't as attractive to us because we wouldn't have the choice of other players to take with various picks..

At that point we would be trading him for certain players(making it much harder to happen for teams & salary caps) and 2013 and future draft picks.

He's more valuable as a draft commodity before the draft.

[Smitto]

Thank god BP will not be the one drafting the players that will be his son.. BP is clearly wrong making that statement looking at cam newton and the past two QB's before him.... if BP was to say that yes a QB can com in right away and play then we would be saying "oh he's saying the colts can do without manning" polian is just playing the politician here and we all know he lies, on his own radio show no less.... I wouldnt be surprised if the colts DONT draft Luck and go for someone they can work on like griffin or barkley OR someone else.. I think what Chris Polian does in this draft will pretty much tell what kind of GM he's gonna be for the rest of his tenure.

[KyFan18]

I'm all for trading the pick, but I wouldn't want a first rounder used on a RB unless it was Barry Sanders or Walter Payton - and even then I'd question the value. This is 2011, not 1985. The Colts already have 3 effective running backs. There are MANY other priorities.

Really?! We should start playing them!

[21isSuperman]

Brown has been our best back this year. Addai can't stay healthy (he's missed significant time in three of the last four seasons). Carter is a rookie who looks decent, but I think it's fair to say that he has a fumbling problem to get situated. Brown has been solid. Of all the backs we should be looking to get rid of, I don't see why we'd let Brown go, right when he's starting to play well.

I definitely see what you're saying. I'm not sure how Brown has progressed in terms of his pass blocking ability. Pass blocking is a huge need for a RB in our system, especially now with Peyton's neck injury. Addai has proven that he can pass block well, and can catch and run well. Carter has tons of potential.

I'm not entirely sure of what Brown's cap hit is, but I wouldn't mind seeing us trade him, get some draft picks, and draft a RB in the late rounds or pick up an undrafted rookie. With that said, if he knows the system well, knows all the audibles, can catch well, can run well (which he has shown this year) and can pass block well, I wouldn't be upset if he isn't traded.

[JoKeR]

After the draft it isn't as attractive to us because we wouldn't have the choice of other players to take with various picks..

At that point we would be trading him for certain players(making it much harder to happen for teams & salary caps) and 2013 and future draft picks.

He's more valuable as a draft commodity before the draft.

No im saying trade him for draft picks next year, not for specific players. I would like the extra picks for this draft instead of the next one but the Colts need that insurance policy now.

But if its clear Manning is fine and back to form, yes trade the pick for the ransom but still draft a good QB.

You might say " Well why not just get the ransom no matter what Mannings status is?"

Because IMO Luck is that special of a player, which is exactly why some teams will pay the ransom.

But lets pretend no one is willing to pay a ransom (this draft)and will only give up 1-3 picks, possibly spread out over multiple years. Then I say keep Luck.

[FireJimCaldwell]

No im saying trade him for draft picks next year, not for specific players. I would like the extra picks for this draft instead of the next one but the Colts need that insurance policy now.

But if its clear Manning is fine and back to form, yes trade the pick for the ransom but still draft a good QB.

You might say " Well why not just get the ransom no matter what Mannings status is?"

Because IMO Luck is that special of a player, which is exactly why some teams will pay the ransom.

But lets pretend no one is willing to pay a ransom (this draft)and will only give up 1-3 picks, possibly spread out over multiple years. Then I say keep Luck.

I just feel we are better off making any trade prior to the draft as opposed to drafting him and then trying to rush to put together a package since teams will be on the clock. From a timing perspective if we could work something out with Mia, Cle, whoever, as opposed to being forced to rush a deal.

He's good, and I think he will become a solid pro, but I don't see the once in a life time skill set that some do. I'm all for getting a bounty for the pick and picking up an upgrade to our QB2 later in the draft, or via free agency. It all depends on Manning's health, I believe we will know about that before the draft.

Having the #1 pick and being able to fall back on Luck if Manning isn't healthy is a decent insurance policy.

[MAC]

Really?! We should start playing them!

Perhaps you aren't aware of the fact that the Colts are middle of the pack this year in yards per rush, despite having such horrendous QB play that defenses shouldn't even have much need to concentrate on defending it. Certainly not compared to a normal year with Peyton. The Colts are ranked in the same general area as some playoff contenders who seem to be noted for their running games, such as the Steelers, 49ers, Ravens, and Texans. They are ranked demonstrably higher than the Patriots, Packers, Falcons and Bengals, and not far behind the Bears, Lions and Bucs.

There is nothing whatsoever wrong with the Colts running backs. Even Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson do little to make their teams competitive in this generations NFL. The Oline makes the running game, and it's more important to have quantities of functional backs who can help in the passing game then it is to have a superstar. Why you would deem a running back more important than filling gaps at CB, DT, a guard, or replacing aging stars at other positions is beyond me.

[JoKeR]

Really?! We should start playing them!

I see what you did there. Colts should've been calling more run plays, instead to sticking with the same pass/run ratio that Manning plays under.

[jskinnz]

If we use our first round draft pick on a running back -- regardless of whether it's the #1 or #32 -- I will officially be over Bill Polian (and whoever else is responsible for the draft decisions). It will be time for him to go.

He is not saying that and he will not do that.

[Superman]

He is not saying that and he will not do that.

I wouldn't think he would. But his comment in the Polian Corner made me do a double-take, and now that other people are latching on to it, I'm getting nervous. I don't think that you should use anything better than a 3rd on a running back, not in today's NFL, and especially not when you run a pass-happy offense. Part of the reason I didn't like the Donald Brown pick.

[jskinnz]

I wouldn't think he would. But his comment in the Polian Corner made me do a double-take, and now that other people are latching on to it, I'm getting nervous. I don't think that you should use anything better than a 3rd on a running back, not in today's NFL, and especially not when you run a pass-happy offense. Part of the reason I didn't like the Donald Brown pick.

Think...

1) When has Polian ever given his draft strategy up?

2) Brown is finally playing well. Carter, fumble issues aside, looks to be a player. And Addai is signed for at least another year.

3) All he is simply saying is that there is development time for other positions that is not there with RB's.

[Superman]

I definitely see what you're saying. I'm not sure how Brown has progressed in terms of his pass blocking ability. Pass blocking is a huge need for a RB in our system, especially now with Peyton's neck injury. Addai has proven that he can pass block well, and can catch and run well. Carter has tons of potential.

I'm not entirely sure of what Brown's cap hit is, but I wouldn't mind seeing us trade him, get some draft picks, and draft a RB in the late rounds or pick up an undrafted rookie. With that said, if he knows the system well, knows all the audibles, can catch well, can run well (which he has shown this year) and can pass block well, I wouldn't be upset if he isn't traded.

Addai can't pass block, he can't run, he can't catch, he can't do anything. Not on the bench. And that's where he's spent A LOT of time in three of the past four seasons. He's a running back. It's a brutal position. He was never the feature back at LSU. He's always been a part of a platoon. Aside from 2007, he's not had that really good season as a full time starter. It hasn't been all his fault. I'm not calling him soft or weak or anything like that. But he's been on the bench a lot.

I think Donald Brown's pass blocking has improved, but he's still not a premiere pass blocking back, not like Addai is. I think there are other things you can do to make up for that, though. Especially when Brown is at least a decent dual threat at running and catching the ball out of the backfield. Brody Eldridge not being able to stay on the field is problematic, but we can use our tight ends to take pressure off of the backs having to pass block. It's kind of a luxury that we've had two of the better pass blocking backs in Addai and Edgerrin. We ask our backs to protect the quarterback a lot, especially from 2008-10, and it doesn't necessarily have to be that way.

According to the link below, Brown's cap hit the next two years is $1.385 million and $1.425 million. The structure of Addai's contract has never been published, not that I can find (neither has Vinatieri's, or Melvin Bullitt's, or Ryan Diem's restructured deal). But it was three years, $14 million. So on the second year, I would assume the cap hit would be near the average of $4.6 million. Three times more. We could sign a couple serviceable backs for that kind of money. Ronnie Brown signed for one year, $1 million. Tim Hightower, one year, $1.2 million. Neither of them are anything special, and I'd rather have Addai, but if we're worried about cap space, his contract makes him a possible casualty.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/donald-brown/

[21isSuperman]

Addai can't pass block, he can't run, he can't catch, he can't do anything. Not on the bench. And that's where he's spent A LOT of time in three of the past four seasons. He's a running back. It's a brutal position. He was never the feature back at LSU. He's always been a part of a platoon. Aside from 2007, he's not had that really good season as a full time starter. It hasn't been all his fault. I'm not calling him soft or weak or anything like that. But he's been on the bench a lot.

I think Donald Brown's pass blocking has improved, but he's still not a premiere pass blocking back, not like Addai is. I think there are other things you can do to make up for that, though. Especially when Brown is at least a decent dual threat at running and catching the ball out of the backfield. Brody Eldridge not being able to stay on the field is problematic, but we can use our tight ends to take pressure off of the backs having to pass block. It's kind of a luxury that we've had two of the better pass blocking backs in Addai and Edgerrin. We ask our backs to protect the quarterback a lot, especially from 2008-10, and it doesn't necessarily have to be that way.

According to the link below, Brown's cap hit the next two years is $1.385 million and $1.425 million. The structure of Addai's contract has never been published, not that I can find (neither has Vinatieri's, or Melvin Bullitt's, or Ryan Diem's restructured deal). But it was three years, $14 million. So on the second year, I would assume the cap hit would be near the average of $4.6 million. Three times more. We could sign a couple serviceable backs for that kind of money. Ronnie Brown signed for one year, $1 million. Tim Hightower, one year, $1.2 million. Neither of them are anything special, and I'd rather have Addai, but if we're worried about cap space, his contract makes him a possible casualty.

http://www.spotrac.c...s/donald-brown/

Very well said. I haven't focused on Brown's pass blocking, so I can't comment on that. And I agree with you about Eldridge being hurt all the time. This was Brown's make or break year and so far, he has proven himself. I wouldn't be upset to see him traded for picks, but after seeing what you've said, I wouldn't be upset if he stayed on the team. Addai's contract is ok, not too high, not too low. He has had trouble staying healthy recently though and I agree, if cap space becomes an issue, then Addai might be a cap casualty (as much as I hate to say that). Though there are other guys with bigger contracts that would go first, like Diem.

[Superman]

Think...

1) When has Polian ever given his draft strategy up?

2) Brown is finally playing well. Carter, fumble issues aside, looks to be a player. And Addai is signed for at least another year.

3) All he is simply saying is that there is development time for other positions that is not there with RB's.

That's what I would expect.

[Superman]

Very well said. I haven't focused on Brown's pass blocking, so I can't comment on that. And I agree with you about Eldridge being hurt all the time. This was Brown's make or break year and so far, he has proven himself. I wouldn't be upset to see him traded for picks, but after seeing what you've said, I wouldn't be upset if he stayed on the team. Addai's contract is ok, not too high, not too low. He has had trouble staying healthy recently though and I agree, if cap space becomes an issue, then Addai might be a cap casualty (as much as I hate to say that). Though there are other guys with bigger contracts that would go first, like Diem.

I was hoping we'd get Addai back at three years, $10 million. Overall, glad to have him back. But as soon as he got hurt this year, he became very expendable, especially at the higher price.

I wouldn't be upset to see Brown traded for picks either. He's nothing special. But he's relatively cheap so I don't think that would be very cost effective, especially not after you replace him with another player. It was just interesting to see him singled out as the player we should get rid of, when he's playing better than anyone else on the team right now.