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Andy

Double A Breakdown -- Week 14

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Week 14 -- Colts vs Ravens

What the Colts Need To Do To Win

On offense, the Colts must play mistake free football. The Ravens have a top 3 defense and with Ed Reed and Jimmy Smith in their secondary, Dan Orlovsky must be very cautious. He needs to make smart throws and he can't go for the long ball that much. They need to effectively run the ball, and with Ray Lewis likely out, this is the chance we have to run it a lot. The Colts need to run hard, especially on early downs making 3rd downs easier. The offensive line is going to be the x-factor in this game. They're going to have to stop Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs, two All-Pros. Haloti Ngata must be double teamed and Anthony Castonzo must control Terrell Suggs and maybe the Colts can put Brody Eldridge on that side (the left side) so that it's guarranteed that Suggs doesn't get to the QB. They need to open holes for the running backs, because the Colts need to run the ball inside because the Ravens play a 3-4 defense making outside runs really hard to do. Winning the battle of the trenches must be the Colts number 1 priority on offense.

On defense, the main thing they must do is stop Ray Rice. Rice tore up the Browns rush defense last week for 204 yards and a touchdown. The Browns have a similar defense to ours. The Colts have to be evenly spread over the field. They can't overload to one side, or the Ravens will just block that side and Rice will just juke and run to the other side, just like he did last week and over his career. They need to attack every gap, and they need to play aggressively. They can't sit back and let Rice run at them, they must run at him. In the passing game, they need take out the long ball by actually playing some Tampa 2 (yes I know, I'm actually saying play some Tampa 2) and some other variations of Cover 2. They need to give the receivers some respect, but not too much. This eliminates the long ball, which means Torrey Smith and Lee Evans has little relevance. Last week was a blemish, but the Colts have done a pretty good job against tight ends, and the tight ends that gave the Colts problems were Gronkowski and Graham, 2 top knotch tight ends. Ed Dickson is not a top knotch tight end. Nothing big to worry about, except he could be a target Joe Flacco looks for on 3rd downs, so keep that in mind. Jacob Lacey and Kevin Thomas need to have big games, and if Thomas doesn't play Rucker needs to step up to the plate and deliver. Next man up! The Colts offense should put up around 15-20 points, meaning the defense has to come up huge and that starts with stopping Ray Rice.

What The Ravens Need to Do To Win

On offense, they need to block and open holes for Ray Rice. They should tend to run on the inside as the Colts have a fast good tackling defense and have a weak D-line when it comes to run blocking. Initial penetration is key and blocking Pat Angerer and Kavell Conner is also key. Mix up the pass and the run, but they should go run 65% of the time, it's what teams have been doing against the Colts, and it seems to work. The Colts have faced the most rushing plays in the NFL; teams run against the Colts. Now, when passing the ball, Joe Flacco just needs to find his targets and make the throws. He cannot turn the ball over, because in my opinion, this is going to be a close game, meaning every possession counts.

On defense, all they need to do is pressure and sack Dan Orlovsky. If they can get to him, their running game alone can't win the game. The Ravens need to get out to an early lead so that the Colts go pass heavy, and once that happens they'll be able to pressure him. If their intial pass rush gets stopped, add blitzes, like make Jameel McClain blitz A-gap which should be open if Saturday comes over and double teams Ngata. They need to just keep pressuring him and take away the long ball, so play Ed Reed deep. They need to hold the Colts to less than 21 points.

Breakout Performers/ Key Matchup

For the Colts, it has to be the running game. Dan Orlovsky is very important, but the running game must get big runs against the ailing Ravens D. If they can't it's going to be hard to win, as Orlovsky really can't win all by himself vs this defense.

For the Ravens, it's Ray Rice. They're going to go run heavy, and he's the starting running back, meaning he must come through. Big game means they win, bad game means they may very well lose.

The key matchup is the Colts O-line vs the Ravens D-line. If the Colts can win this matchup, they can really give Orlovsky time which means he can make his reads and make his throws. If the Ravens win, well it's going to be the 49ers-Ravens game... the game where the Ravens got 9 sacks on Alex Smith.

What I Think Will Happen

I think the score at the end of the 1st quarter will be 3-3, just like last week. In the 2nd quarter, the Ravens will come out and score 3 more points, making 6-3 with about 8 minutes left in the quarter. Dan Orlovsky will then lead a drive down the field, which will be capped off by a 11 yard run by Joseph Addai. The score going into halftime will be 10-6 Colts. The Ravens will get the ball in the 2nd half, and they will score immediately. Ray Rice will dominate on the drive having 7 rushes for 56 yards, and will cap it off with 2 yard score. The Colts will come back out and will go 3 and out. The Ravens will come back out and score 3 more points making the score 20-10. The Colts will start with the ball in the 4th quarter and slowly drive down the field and score. The score will be 20-17 with 6 minutes left. The Ravens will then drive down the field and get inside the 10, but the Colts will stop them, holding them to 3 points. The score will be 23-17 with 1:39 left. Dan Orlovsky will drive and have a 46 yard pass to Pierre Garcon. They will get to the 20 yard line, but he will be intercepted by Ed Reed. The Colts lose another heartbreaker. Dan Orlovsky will go 27 for 40 for 311 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Pierre Garcon will be the Colts best receiver with 6 catches for 98 yards. Reggie WAyne will have 4 catches for 37 yards and a touchdown. Joseph Addai will have 9 rushes for 33 yards and a touchdown., and Donald Brown will have 13 rushes for 61 yards. Dwight Freeney will have a sack. Joe Flacco will go 20 for 31 for 287 yards with 1 touchdown. Ray Rice will have 27 rushes for 136 yards and a touchdown with 4 catches for 36 yards. Anquan Boldin will their best receiver with 7 catches for 88 yards. Torrey Smith will have 2 catches for 51 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens will have 5 sacks. The Colts go to 0-13.

Prediction

Ravens 23 vs Colts 17

Last Time They Played

2009 NFL Post-Season -- Divisonal Round

Colts 20 vs Ravens 3

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