Archer's Preliminary 2015 Colt Mock Draft

[Archer]

1) Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami.  This position makes a lot of sense to me for three reasons.  One: Cherilus is by far our worst OL this year, and a competition between Flowers, Nixon, and Ulrich John will likely yield an upgrade.  Two: Cherilus is scheduled to make a boat-load of money, so this will save cap space in the immediate term.  The space can be used to improve other areas of the team.  Three: In preparation for Luck's big contract in two years, the Colts need to find positions they traditionally spend a lot and find cheaper options.  In the best-case scenario, Flowers is the long-term solution at LT and lets us save money over retaining Costanzo.  Otherwise, he'll still be a relatively cheap RT option for the first three years of Luck's new contract.

 

2) Kurtis Drummond, S, Michigan St.  We've gotten by amazingly well with Brown and Adams at safety this year, and Brown could be a long-term solution.  However, between Howell, Adams, and Colt Anderson, we don't seem to have a coverage/free safety-type who definitely fits into the future plans.  We need a talented addition to help ensure we're not flying by the seat of our pants all 2015.   

 

3) David Johnson, RB, N. Iowa.  This is the toughest pick of the draft for me, since there are so many directions I could go.  The first two rounds were so clear to me, but I could go DL, OLB, WR, or a number of other directions on this pick.  I chose RB mainly because Bradshaw and Ballard's injuries almost certainly put them outside the circle of trust.  I think that Grigson is not shy to use an early pick on RB, as he sent a 1st rounder to Cleveland for Richardson.  I like that Johnson is a brute, tough runner, which Pagano will like.  He's a straight-ahead runner with no wiggle, which will appeal to Pagano in light of Richardson's dancing.  And he's a GREAT receiver.

 

4) Vince Mayle, WR, Washington St.  Keep the weapons coming for Luck.  This one is 6'3", 220, with surprising quickness.  He can be a good, strong possession receiver, which Luck hasn't really had yet with the Colts.

 

5) Henry Anderson, DL, Stanford.  We have a pretty good mix of younger and older players on the DL.  Anderson can win with quickness and strength, but has some injury concerns.  I see him as a successor in RJF's role.

 

6) Thurston Armbrister, OLB, Miami.  With Seattle's 6th-rounder, we pick up an OLB who emerged for Miami this year.  The OLBs are critical in our system, so we've got to keep the prospects coming. 

 

6) Adam Shead, OG, Oklahoma.  There's a lot of uncertainty with the interior depth on our OL.  If I had to guess, I'd say that the coaching staff wants Khaled Holmes to fill the versatile back-up role that Lance Louis has this year.  We're keeping Holmes on the roster for a reason, even though he's been a "healthy" scratch all year.  My guess is it's a second straight red-shirt season for him with a high-ankle sprain.  However, Louis and Shipley don't seem to have a future to me.  So, I'd like to find a run-blocking RG prospect as a possible second back-up interior OL (since Holmes, Reitz, and Ulrich John are all interior prospects who are probably better suited to the left side).  Shead plays LG at Oklahoma, but he has a RG skill set IMO. 

 

7) Tye Smith, CB, Towson.  Gordy hasn't played too well.  We only like Butler defending the slot.  Purifoy isn't a sure thing as a future contributor.  This is just another #5 option at this point.  It would be the first CB drafted by Grigson (in his fourth draft).

[PrincetonTiger]

Not bad

[Manning1887]

I love the Henry Anderson pick, although I just don't see him lasting until the 5th round. Also, from what I have read, Flowers' stock is dropping and he may be a 2nd or 3rd round pick at this point (still early though). One player whose stock is rising is TJ Clemmings from Pittsburgh. He is 6'6" and 315 lbs. He has tremendous upside and has improved dramatically over the last couple of years. If the right player is available, perhaps we pull the trigger, but I think we may let this need slide for a year. Let's see what Ulrick John has to offer next year, plus Cherilus has been dealing with a groin injury that has limited his mobility. 

 

I am intrigued with David Johnson, perhaps one of the most underrated running backs in college football. I think running back is a position to address, however, I would not take a guy in the 3rd round. I think we have too many needs on defense, and history has shown too many late round/free agent running backs have had success in the NFL. This position could also be addressed with a short-term veteran free agency deal. 

 

We have to improve our pass rush. That has to be priority #1. I am not sure how well Mathis will heal from his injury and what type of production he will be capable of next season. I like the potential Jonathan Newsome has shown, but he is far from a finished product. He provides some pop rushing the passer but is a liability against the run. Werner is just solid. He is Paul Kruger as far as I am concerned. Solid to good player, nothing flashy about his game. He cannot generate consistent pressure. 

 

The way I see it currently: 

1.) Alvin Dupree OLB Kentucky: stock is rising in a draft full of pass rushers, good size, capable of defending pass and run. 

2.) Gerrod Holliman S Louisville: we have to improve our safety play, Holliman has lot of potential, his stats garner attention but his deficiencies cause him to drop to 2nd day, is a ballhawk but needs to work on tackling and run support, very high ceiling

3.) Kevin Johnson CB Wake Forest: Rising prospect, tall but kind of skinny, needs to hit weight room at 6'0" and only about 180 lbs; great ball skills, good man cover corner; stock may rise to 2nd round as season finishes up and post-season workouts commence 

4.) Stephone Anthony LB Clemson: we have to improve our play at ILB, Anthony is 6'2" 245 lbs

[BProland85]

Not a fan. There will be better options at OT in round 1 such as Spencer Drango, TJ Clemmings, and Cameron Erving.

 

For round 3 there will be better options at RB like Duke Johnson.

[PrincetonTiger]

I love the Henry Anderson pick, although I just don't see him lasting until the 5th round. Also, from what I have read, Flowers' stock is dropping and he may be a 2nd or 3rd round pick at this point (still early though). One player whose stock is rising is TJ Clemmings from Pittsburgh. He is 6'6" and 315 lbs. He has tremendous upside and has improved dramatically over the last couple of years. If the right player is available, perhaps we pull the trigger, but I think we may let this need slide for a year. Let's see what Ulrick John has to offer next year, plus Cherilus has been dealing with a groin injury that has limited his mobility. 

 

I am intrigued with David Johnson, perhaps one of the most underrated running backs in college football. I think running back is a position to address, however, I would not take a guy in the 3rd round. I think we have too many needs on defense, and history has shown too many late round/free agent running backs have had success in the NFL. This position could also be addressed with a short-term veteran free agency deal. 

 

We have to improve our pass rush. That has to be priority #1. I am not sure how well Mathis will heal from his injury and what type of production he will be capable of next season. I like the potential Jonathan Newsome has shown, but he is far from a finished product. He provides some pop rushing the passer but is a liability against the run. Werner is just solid. He is Paul Kruger as far as I am concerned. Solid to good player, nothing flashy about his game. He cannot generate consistent pressure. 

 

The way I see it currently: 

1.) Alvin Dupree OLB Kentucky: stock is rising in a draft full of pass rushers, good size, capable of defending pass and run. 

2.) Gerrod Holliman S Louisville: we have to improve our safety play, Holliman has lot of potential, his stats garner attention but his deficiencies cause him to drop to 2nd day, is a ballhawk but needs to work on tackling and run support, very high ceiling

3.) Kevin Johnson CB Wake Forest: Rising prospect, tall but kind of skinny, needs to hit weight room at 6'0" and only about 180 lbs; great ball skills, good man cover corner; stock may rise to 2nd round as season finishes up and post-season workouts commence 

4.) Stephone Anthony LB Clemson: we have to improve our play at ILB, Anthony is 6'2" 245 lbs

Dupree would be a great option

[Track Guy]

1) Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami.  This position makes a lot of sense to me for three reasons.  One: Cherilus is by far our worst OL this year, and a competition between Flowers, Nixon, and Ulrich John will likely yield an upgrade.  Two: Cherilus is scheduled to make a boat-load of money, so this will save cap space in the immediate term.  The space can be used to improve other areas of the team.  Three: In preparation for Luck's big contract in two years, the Colts need to find positions they traditionally spend a lot and find cheaper options.  In the best-case scenario, Flowers is the long-term solution at LT and lets us save money over retaining Costanzo.  Otherwise, he'll still be a relatively cheap RT option for the first three years of Luck's new contract.

 

2) Kurtis Drummond, S, Michigan St.  We've gotten by amazingly well with Brown and Adams at safety this year, and Brown could be a long-term solution.  However, between Howell, Adams, and Colt Anderson, we don't seem to have a coverage/free safety-type who definitely fits into the future plans.  We need a talented addition to help ensure we're not flying by the seat of our pants all 2015.   

 

3) David Johnson, RB, N. Iowa.  This is the toughest pick of the draft for me, since there are so many directions I could go.  The first two rounds were so clear to me, but I could go DL, OLB, WR, or a number of other directions on this pick.  I chose RB mainly because Bradshaw and Ballard's injuries almost certainly put them outside the circle of trust.  I think that Grigson is not shy to use an early pick on RB, as he sent a 1st rounder to Cleveland for Richardson.  I like that Johnson is a brute, tough runner, which Pagano will like.  He's a straight-ahead runner with no wiggle, which will appeal to Pagano in light of Richardson's dancing.  And he's a GREAT receiver.

 

4) Vince Mayle, WR, Washington St.  Keep the weapons coming for Luck.  This one is 6'3", 220, with surprising quickness.  He can be a good, strong possession receiver, which Luck hasn't really had yet with the Colts.

 

5) Henry Anderson, DL, Stanford.  We have a pretty good mix of younger and older players on the DL.  Anderson can win with quickness and strength, but has some injury concerns.  I see him as a successor in RJF's role.

 

6) Thurston Armbrister, OLB, Miami.  With Seattle's 6th-rounder, we pick up an OLB who emerged for Miami this year.  The OLBs are critical in our system, so we've got to keep the prospects coming. 

 

6) Adam Shead, OG, Oklahoma.  There's a lot of uncertainty with the interior depth on our OL.  If I had to guess, I'd say that the coaching staff wants Khaled Holmes to fill the versatile back-up role that Lance Louis has this year.  We're keeping Holmes on the roster for a reason, even though he's been a "healthy" scratch all year.  My guess is it's a second straight red-shirt season for him with a high-ankle sprain.  However, Louis and Shipley don't seem to have a future to me.  So, I'd like to find a run-blocking RG prospect as a possible second back-up interior OL (since Holmes, Reitz, and Ulrich John are all interior prospects who are probably better suited to the left side).  Shead plays LG at Oklahoma, but he has a RG skill set IMO. 

 

7) Tye Smith, CB, Towson.  Gordy hasn't played too well.  We only like Butler defending the slot.  Purifoy isn't a sure thing as a future contributor.  This is just another #5 option at this point.  It would be the first CB drafted by Grigson (in his fourth draft).

 

I like going either O-line or DE with our first pick. If there I'm not first round pick high on Flowers though. I like Clemmings and Drango better. I'm hoping Castonzo get's locked down at LT. Also while Cherlius has been struggling, I'd only want to cut ties next season if we could snag someone who we know can step in and deliver at least comparable play.

 

Second round I could agree with safety. Haven't really watched Drummond, but I like this year's safety class. I'd also consider a pass rusher or DE if we go O-line early. BPA in those positions would be ideal. Running back would even be in play I suppose. 

 

I'm a big fan of Layne Staley btw

[loudnproudcolt]

Two: Cherilus is scheduled to make a boat-load of money, so this will save cap space in the immediate term.  The space can be used to improve other areas of the team.  Three: In preparation for Luck's big contract in two years, the Colts need to find positions they traditionally spend a lot and find cheaper options.

 

I don't know how Cherilus will play next season, but he will be in Indy, guaranteed, unless a severe injury takes him out for the seaon. Next year he counts 6.9M as his cap charge. If we cut him, we actually lose 1.8M for the year, and have dead money against the cap of 8.7M for 2015. That is a hefty chunk, so he will be given every chance. Now if we cut him, we would gain 10M in 2016, and 11M in cap savings in 2017. He should not have been given a backloaded 5 yr. contract. I had no problem with the price at the time though since he was rated high as a RT. I am hoping it is a groin hurting his play. I will say if we decide to go tackle, and there are many good ones, we absorb the dead money next year of 8.7M, but we do save the 21M in 16 and 17, so what you say makes some sense, but the money freed up will not help us next year.

One more thing, so many teams are playing the spread option, and spreading the teams out, run blocking has become a lost art and pass blocking to some extent have really suffered in college, and it is taking players time to acclimate. Look at all the high first round tackles taken lately.

 

Kalil- Struggling

Joekel-Major struggles and injury

Fisher-Struggling

Matthews-Struggling

 

I could go on. Very few success stories. More guards have had success than tackles lately.

 

I could go on but you get the picture. There are a lot of quality tackles this year, and some are falling right now. I have seen 6 tackles projected in the first round. That is not going to happen. Cedric Ogbuehi from Texas AM has been falling like a rock, and he was projected top 5. Look at Matthews and Joeckel who both are from Texas AM and both struggling, from the spread. Ereck Flowers has a grade of early 2nd in most mocks I have seen. I just believe we can get a good tackle in the second round, but we have a lot of lineman hurt who will be coming back also. I would prefer one of the safeties or cornerbacks with the first pick.

[Briggs32]

I love the Henry Anderson pick, although I just don't see him lasting until the 5th round. Also, from what I have read, Flowers' stock is dropping and he may be a 2nd or 3rd round pick at this point (still early though). One player whose stock is rising is TJ Clemmings from Pittsburgh. He is 6'6" and 315 lbs. He has tremendous upside and has improved dramatically over the last couple of years. If the right player is available, perhaps we pull the trigger, but I think we may let this need slide for a year. Let's see what Ulrick John has to offer next year, plus Cherilus has been dealing with a groin injury that has limited his mobility. 

 

I am intrigued with David Johnson, perhaps one of the most underrated running backs in college football. I think running back is a position to address, however, I would not take a guy in the 3rd round. I think we have too many needs on defense, and history has shown too many late round/free agent running backs have had success in the NFL. This position could also be addressed with a short-term veteran free agency deal. 

 

We have to improve our pass rush. That has to be priority #1. I am not sure how well Mathis will heal from his injury and what type of production he will be capable of next season. I like the potential Jonathan Newsome has shown, but he is far from a finished product. He provides some pop rushing the passer but is a liability against the run. Werner is just solid. He is Paul Kruger as far as I am concerned. Solid to good player, nothing flashy about his game. He cannot generate consistent pressure. 

 

The way I see it currently: 

1.) Alvin Dupree OLB Kentucky: stock is rising in a draft full of pass rushers, good size, capable of defending pass and run. 

2.) Gerrod Holliman S Louisville: we have to improve our safety play, Holliman has lot of potential, his stats garner attention but his deficiencies cause him to drop to 2nd day, is a ballhawk but needs to work on tackling and run support, very high ceiling

3.) Kevin Johnson CB Wake Forest: Rising prospect, tall but kind of skinny, needs to hit weight room at 6'0" and only about 180 lbs; great ball skills, good man cover corner; stock may rise to 2nd round as season finishes up and post-season workouts commence 

4.) Stephone Anthony LB Clemson: we have to improve our play at ILB, Anthony is 6'2" 245 lbs