Double A Breakdown -- Week 13

[Andy]

Week 13 -- Colts vs Patriots

What the Colts Need To Do To Win

On offense, the Colts will need to effectively mix up the pass and the run, and if anything run more. The key is to keep the Patriots offense off the field. Dan Orlovsky, who's getting his first start of the year, must make an impact, and that means making good reads, and having a quick release; don't hold onto it too long. The running game needs to bail him out also, as they don't want a guy like Orlovsky throwing the ball 40+ times. Donald Brown needs to have a big game, which means rushing over 100 yards and about 5.5 yards per carry... just to have a chance. The offense needs to put up at least 28 points to win this game, which is something they haven't done all year, but if they had to do it against any team, they could do it against the 32nd ranked defense in the NFL.

On defense, the most important thing (easily) is trying to control Tom Brady. Don't expect to shut down Tom Brady, so at least take away his favorite target, Wes Welker, and apply great pressure on him. They have to get to him, and that means from everywhere so don't be afraid to blitz as it worked several times last week. The second thing they can do is take away is favorite target Wes Welker by double teaming him and putting Jerraud Powers against him. Jerraud Powers singlehandedly shutdown Steve Smith last week, so maybe he'll do it again this week. The 3rd and final thing they can do is play less of Tampa 2. Tom Brady picks apart this Tampa 2, and if they play a lot of Tampa 2 with this offense and versus this quarterback, it's going to be another 62-7 game. They have to play other schemes to confuse, and with Mike Murphy as the defensive coordinator, you never know what will happen. They also have to worry about Rob Gronkowski, especially in the redzone, so putting Pat Angerer against him is not a bad idea.

What The Patriots Need to Do To Win

On offense, it's simple. Tom Brady has to get protection, and he should be able to pick apart the Colts defense. If Wes Welker is not there, he should look for Gronkowski, but the Colts have been great vs tight ends, so Deion Branch may see some targets, and the same with Ochocinco. They need to run hard with Green-Ellis, but at the end of the day, Brady has to be good.

On defense, they literally have to shutdown the Colts rushing game. If they take that out, they make Dan Orlovsky pass a lot, and if they make him pass a lot, that's good because he can't win the game by himself. It's also good to get a lot of pressure on him because as we've seen in the past, pressure against QBs like Orlovsky cause turnovers and there are not too many better teams at creating turnovers than the Patriots.

Breakout Performers/ Key Matchup

For the Colts, it has to be Donald Brown. A bad game from him, and a loss is guarranteed. A fantastic game and he makes it interesting.

For the Patriots, it's Tom Brady. A good game and they win; a bad one they could lose.

The key matchup is the Patriots O-line vs the Colts D-line. The winner of the battle could dictate the way this game goes, as it did with the Steelers game.

What I Think Will Happen

I think the 1st quarter score will be 14-3, with 2 Tom Brady touchdowns (1 to Welker, 1 to Branch). The 2nd quarter will start and the Colts will drive, but Garcon will fumble the football. The Patriots will score 2 more touchdowns to finish the half. Benjarvus Green-Ellis will have a touchdown and Hernandez will have a touchdown reception. In the 2nd half, the Colts will get the ball and drive down the field, and get a field goal. Donald Brown will be key on that drive. The Patriots will come right back and score a field goal. The score at the end of the 3rd quarter will be 31-6. The Patriots will score in the 4th quarter with a Green-Ellis touchdown. The Colts will score a touchdown with a Reggie Wayne 21 yard touchdown. Dan Orlovsky will go 23-37 with 244 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Donald Brown will have 15 rushes for 71 yards. Reggie Wayne will be the best receiver as he will catch 6 passes for 88 yards and a touchdown. Pierre Garcon will have 5 catches for 56 yards and a fumble. Tom Brady will go 23-28 with 290 yards and 3 touchdowns. Deion Branch will be their best receiver with 9 catches for 123 yards with a touchdown. Benjarvus Green Ellis will have 20 rushes for 91 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Colts will lose another one.

Prediction

Patriots 38 vs Colts 13

Last Time They Played

2010 NFL Season -- Week 11

Patriots 31 vs Colts 28

[Coltsman1788]

Good Analysis Andy as always. Man...I was just starting to think we might have a small chance to pull off the impossible...always start feeling that way a little on game day. But this put a nix to any of those notions for good. lol

By the way, do you sim the games on Madden 12 or something. Those are some pretty detailed statistical & game predictions! Fun read.