Pats' D distinctly average

[backshoulderfade]

Statistically speaking of course.

 

16th in YPG with 355.1

12th in Scoring with 22

14th in Passing YPG with 235

22nd in Rushing YPG with 120

22nd in 3rd Down % with 43.1%

 

They only rank top 10 in takeaways where they are T-5th with 18.

 

Their schedule hasn't been the toughest in terms of offenses they have faced compared to us either.

 

I am not saying the game will be easy, it's a game we may well lose. That said, this D wont shut down the best offense in the league.

 

 

 

[Valpo2004]

Statistically speaking of course.

 

16th in YPG with 355.1

12th in Scoring with 22

14th in Passing YPG with 235

22nd in Rushing YPG with 120

22nd in 3rd Down % with 43.1%

 

They only rank top 10 in takeaways where they are T-5th with 18.

 

Their schedule hasn't been the toughest in terms of offenses they have faced compared to us either.

 

I am not saying the game will be easy, it's a game we may well lose. That said, this D wont shut down the best offense in the league.

 

Did pretty well against Denver who's also one of the top offenses in the league.  

 

Granted they got Denver at home however.

[chad72]

It is pretty much the same thing that the Broncos had endured before they got dislodged off their high at Foxboro. They had a stretch of home games vs the Cardinals, 49ers and Chargers that they won handily that had them flying high. Same with the Patriots with home games vs Bengals, Jets, Bears and Broncos that have them flying high.

 

Broncos are 2-2 on the road. They have road wins vs Raiders and Jets. 2 good teams they played on the road - Seahawks and Patriots, they lost to. Patriots road wins are vs Raiders and Bills with losses to Dolphins and Chiefs. They were 8-0 at home last year, 4-4 on the road.

 

The road factor cannot be ignored, IMO. Granted, the Patriots will not be as bad as the Broncos were at Foxboro on the road but it just goes to show you road games vs good teams is not a given.

[TAPLOOK]

The Colts will get yards not points. Luck will have at least 300 and maybe even 400 yards in the loss.

[Valpo2004]

It is pretty much the same thing that the Broncos had endured before they got dislodged off their high at Foxboro. They had a stretch of home games vs the Cardinals, 49ers and Chargers that they won handily that had them flying high. Same with the Patriots with home games vs Bengals, Jets, Bears and Broncos that have them flying high.

 

Broncos are 2-2 on the road. They have road wins vs Raiders and Jets. 2 good teams they played on the road - Seahawks and Patriots, they lost to. Patriots road wins are vs Raiders and Bills with losses to Dolphins and Chiefs. They were 8-0 at home last year, 4-4 on the road.

 

The road factor cannot be ignored, IMO.

 

That makes me curious. . . . it would be too much work for me to do but if you took at say the last 10 years in matchups of two teams that would both make the playoffs that season, what is the home vs. away record.  

[Moopsiepuffs]

They have a significantly better turnover ratio compared to the Colts. I know a lot of that is because Brady throws far less interceptions than Luck, but they are still a solid unit and I would take all stats with a pinch of salt.

 

Think of the passing yards the Colts gave up against the Giants. Eli ended up with over 350 yards but they meant nothing because they were blown out 41-10 when the game still meant something. The Pats have blown out teams this year and it's natural for the opponent to gain yards due to soft play/coverage.

 

I think far too much emphasis is placed on stats and not enough actually game-watching is going on.

[backshoulderfade]

They have a significantly better turnover ratio compared to the Colts. I know a lot of that is because Brady throws far less interceptions than Luck, but they are still a solid unit and I would take all stats with a pinch of salt.

 

Think of the passing yards the Colts gave up against the Giants. Eli ended up with over 350 yards but they meant nothing because they were blown out 41-10 when the game still meant something. The Pats have blown out teams this year and it's natural for the opponent to gain yards due to soft play/coverage.

 

I think far too much emphasis is placed on stats and not enough actually game-watching is going on.

Colts have only 3 less turnovers than the Pats, but again, the Colts have faced superior offenses.

[Cynjin]

They have a significantly better turnover ratio compared to the Colts. I know a lot of that is because Brady throws far less interceptions than Luck, but they are still a solid unit and I would take all stats with a pinch of salt.

 

Think of the passing yards the Colts gave up against the Giants. Eli ended up with over 350 yards but they meant nothing because they were blown out 41-10 when the game still meant something. The Pats have blown out teams this year and it's natural for the opponent to gain yards due to soft play/coverage.

 

I think far too much emphasis is placed on stats and not enough actually game-watching is going on.

Good Lord! Is Hell freezing over, I actually agree with most of a post from you.

[#12]

Against this defense, the Colts have to play attacking, aggressive football.  Almost invariably since Luck arrived, they have played their best football when they were aggressive.  The trouble always seems to start when they are not aggressive.   You just have to live and die with Luck and hope that he and the team mature at a point and do not turn the ball over in big games like this.  Hopefully, that starts this weekend.  If they don't turn the ball over, they will win this game. 

[TAPLOOK]

They have a significantly better turnover ratio compared to the Colts. I know a lot of that is because Brady throws far less interceptions than Luck, but they are still a solid unit and I would take all stats with a pinch of salt.

 

Think of the passing yards the Colts gave up against the Giants. Eli ended up with over 350 yards but they meant nothing because they were blown out 41-10 when the game still meant something. The Pats have blown out teams this year and it's natural for the opponent to gain yards due to soft play/coverage.

 

I think far too much emphasis is placed on stats and not enough actually game-watching is going on.

You get it. Peyton had 400 plus yards in the Broncos loss.

[Smash Mouth]

The Pats are a different team on the road and have ben for the past few years.  Primarily because they haven't had a championship defense - KC and Miami lossess on the road.

 

The defense has been effective because of the turnovers and giving up 22 pts per game with a QB like Brady is good enough.  The Colts turn the ball over at too high of a rate.  

 

Luck has to eliminate the head shaking moments on Sunday.  It just has to happen if the Colts are taking the next step.

 

TRich and Bradshaw can't put the ball on the ground.  One thing not being talked about is that the Colts have an advantage at RB.  I wonder if Pep will continue to pass to set up the run.  If the Colts can run on early downs, it will put the Pats on their heels.  If they have to put a safety in the box to stop the run, it will be hard to execute their game plan in the secondary.

[Jason_]

The Colts will get yards not points. Luck will have at least 300 and maybe even 400 yards in the loss.

 

Why do you think the Colts won't get points?  The lowest scoring out put for the Colts this year has been 20 points against Baltimore, and they should have put up more than 20 but shot themselves in the foot a few times.  So it wasn't Baltimore that held them to 20.  If the Colts score under 30 in this game I'll be very surprised.

[Superman]

Why do you think the Colts won't get points?  The lowest scoring out put for the Colts this year has been 20 points against Baltimore, and they should have put up more than 20 but shot themselves in the foot a few times.  So it wasn't Baltimore that held them to 20.  If the Colts score under 30 in this game I'll be very surprised.

 

And the Ravens have a better defense than the Pats...

[chad72]

That makes me curious. . . . it would be too much work for me to do but if you took at say the last 10 years in matchups of two teams that would both make the playoffs that season, what is the home vs. away record.  

 

2012 - AFC playoff teams - Broncos, Patriots, Texans, Ravens, Colts, Bengals

 

Games between them (regular season)

 

Broncos vs Patriots at Foxboro - Home team won handily

Patriots vs Ravens at Ravens - Home team won a close last second FG game

Texans vs Ravens at Texans - Home team won in a blowout

Patriots vs Texans at Foxboro - Home team won in a blowout

Patriots vs Colts at Foxboro - Home team won in a blowout

Broncos vs Bengals at Cincy - Road team won a close one

Broncos vs Ravens at Ravens - Road team won handily (last good year for Broncos on the road, I felt)

 

Playoffs:

Texans vs Bengals at Texans - Home team won

Ravens vs Colts at Ravens - Home team won

Patriots vs Texans at Foxboro - Home team won

Ravens won twice on the road at Broncos and then at Patriots

 

 

2013 AFC playoff teams (Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Chiefs, Chargers) - regular season

 

Broncos vs Chargers - both times, the road teams won

Broncos vs Patriots - home team won

Broncos vs Chiefs - Broncos won both

Colts vs Broncos - Home team won

Colts vs Chiefs - road team won

 

Playoffs - home teams pretty much won the whole way (Colts vs Chiefs, Broncos vs Chargers, Patriots vs Texans, Broncos vs Patriots etc.)

 

It is a mixed bag, based on the talent levels of teams but against equally matched teams, the home team has an edge, I feel. It is easier to win on the road against an injured/one dimensional offense in general, IMO, tougher against a balanced offense.

[TKnight24]

Don't really feed much into stats.

Just about who's prepped to play. Steelers set records against us, got spanked by the Jets

Weeks where top ranked defenses look like bottom ranked and vice-versa

Just gotta go out and play our style of football and everything will fall into place

[Valpo2004]

2012 - AFC playoff teams - Broncos, Patriots, Texans, Ravens, Colts, Bengals

 

Games between them (regular season)

 

Broncos vs Patriots at Foxboro - Home team won handily

Patriots vs Ravens at Ravens - Home team won a close last second FG game

Texans vs Ravens at Texans - Home team won in a blowout

Patriots vs Texans at Foxboro - Home team won in a blowout

Patriots vs Colts at Foxboro - Home team won in a blowout

Broncos vs Bengals at Cincy - Road team won a close one

Broncos vs Ravens at Ravens - Road team won handily (last good year for Broncos on the road, I felt)

 

Playoffs:

Texans vs Bengals at Texans - Home team won

Ravens vs Colts at Ravens - Home team won

Patriots vs Texans at Foxboro - Home team won

Ravens won twice on the road at Broncos and then at Patriots

 

 

2013 AFC playoff teams (Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Chiefs, Chargers) - regular season

 

Broncos vs Chargers - both times, the road teams won

Broncos vs Patriots - home team won

Broncos vs Chiefs - Broncos won both

Colts vs Broncos - Home team won

Colts vs Chiefs - road team won

 

Playoffs - home teams pretty much won the whole way (Colts vs Chiefs, Broncos vs Chargers, Patriots vs Texans, Broncos vs Patriots etc.)

 

It is a mixed bag, based on the talent levels of teams but against equally matched teams, the home team has an edge, I feel. It is easier to win on the road against an injured/one dimensional offense in general, IMO, tougher against a balanced offense.

 

I think the question is if they are evenly matched.  I thought the Broncos and Pats where evenly matched and that being the home team the Pats would probably win.  But I didn't expect them to be as dominate as they where.  

 

That is perhaps what is scary for me, how much they dominated the Broncos in all 3 phases.

[Moopsiepuffs]

Good Lord! Is Hell freezing over, I actually agree with most of a post from you.

 

Most of the post? Agree with all of it then we'll talk.

[chad72]

I think the question is if they are evenly matched.  I thought the Broncos and Pats where evenly matched and that being the home team the Pats would probably win.  But I didn't expect them to be as dominate as they where.  

 

That is perhaps what is scary for me, how much they dominated the Broncos in all 3 phases.

 

Yeah, true. However, at home, you are able to mask a lot of weakneses like special teams and your D feeds off crowd energy, a big factor why an opposing offense cannot be as efficient. That is very much relevant and applicable to the Broncos, IMO.

 

Besides, I firmly believe the Colts team is more resilient and has more character than that Broncos team. This team does not quit a lot of times, especially at home, even if it is down. With the Broncos team, once things go south and they are not playing as a frontrunner, things unravel faster.

 

I thought the Colts were done in that Chiefs playoff game, I thought they were going to be shellacked after that first quarter vs the Seahawks last year, I thought the Broncos would come back on us last year, and every time I thought wrong, and all of these times, they were at home. Just worth pointing out.

[sweetsurrender]

Patriots give up yards but not a lot of points. They are very good in the turnover department as well.

 

We will have our chances but we have to cash in each and every time.

[TAPLOOK]

Why do you think the Colts won't get points?  The lowest scoring out put for the Colts this year has been 20 points against Baltimore, and they should have put up more than 20 but shot themselves in the foot a few times.  So it wasn't Baltimore that held them to 20.  If the Colts score under 30 in this game I'll be very surprised.

 

 

They scored 20 so yes the Ravens held them to 20. Sometimes I'm wrong but I'm feeling a convincing Patriots victory come Sunday. 

[B~Town]

Did pretty well against Denver who's also one of the top offenses in the league.  

 

Granted they got Denver at home however.

What really surprised me about that game was Broncos running game . Did they even call a run play that wasn't a draw until garbage time ?

[Jason_]

They scored 20 so yes the Ravens held them to 20. Sometimes I'm wrong but I'm feeling a convincing Patriots victory come Sunday. 

 

Yeah, that's not true. 

[wesd2890]

Don't really feed much into stats.

Just about who's prepped to play. Steelers set records against us, got spanked by the Jets

Weeks where top ranked defenses look like bottom ranked and vice-versa

Just gotta go out and play our style of football and everything will fall into place

This post is awesome.. lol i 100% agree.. i love the wording.. sounding like a true coach lol

[TKnight24]

This post is awesome.. lol i 100% agree.. i love the wording.. sounding like a true coach lol

I try to do what I can do, when I can do it

[-JJ-]

Don't really feed much into stats.

Just about who's prepped to play. Steelers set records against us, got spanked by the Jets

Weeks where top ranked defenses look like bottom ranked and vice-versa

Just gotta go out and play our style of football and everything will fall into place

yep I'll 2nd the post.

 

I would just add execution and mistakes who makes and who doesn't. Or sometimes you're just hot and other times flat.

 

The rest is all junk

[Dark Superman]

They rank in the top 10 in takeaways, which is something they have prided themselves on against us In the past. If we are going to win we can't turn the ball over

[JimJaime]

Tell you how silly yardage stats are, BEFORE the broncos game the pats were ranked #1 in pass D based on yardage. And IMO the Denver game was the best pass D all year!

[-JJ-]

Tell you how silly yardage stats are, BEFORE the broncos game the pats were ranked #1 in pass D based on yardage. And IMO the Denver game was the best pass D all year!

Yeah saw that. About as silly as it gets ;)

 

Nice to see ya back again by the way, Jim. Hope all's well.

[Coffeedrinker]

Yardage stats don't mean a lot.  Efficiency means a lot though... converting third downs, maximizing points in the redzone, creating turnovers, not turning the ball over.  That's why I like the Aikman Efficiency Ratings, takes all that important stuff into consideration.  After week 10:

 

The Colts have an Offensive AER of 91.0 (3rd) and a D AER of 67.3 (18th) for a combined of 158.3 (7th)

 

The Pats have an Offensive AER of 90 (6th) and a D AER of 67.8 (16th) for a combined of 157.8 (8th)

 

Now AER does not factor in special teams to the over, just offensive and defensive efficiency.  For my office pool, I use a formula that includes the current overall, then factoring in any moves up or down over the past 5 weeks and a certain number of points for the home team.  I win 5 or 6 times a year and another 5 or 6 times when I lose based on points of the MNF game, so it's proven (to me at least) to be a pretty reliable gauge.

[JimJaime]

Nice stats, I don't know the colts special teams but I know Edelman can break a punt return at any time. Man is electrifying on returns.

[krunk]

I am not putting any stock in those stats. They were even more average last year in the playoff and still picked off Luck 4 times, and thumped us.  I'll give them some respect till they show me different.

[cm43sports]

Nice stats, I don't know the colts special teams but I know Edelman can break a punt return at any time. Man is electrifying on returns.

McAfee says Edelman is the only player to ever beat him for a touchdown so I'll bet Pat wants some revenge. I'd love to see Pat give Edelman the Trindon Holliday treatment.

[GoColts8818]

What the Pats do really well is ball hawk.  Luck MUST be careful with the football and not take some of the chances he likes to take.  The Pats jump all over plays like that and turn them into turnovers and when they get turnovers they normally turn them into points.  This is what has gotten the Colts into trouble the first two times Luck has played Luck.  He has turned it over eight times and score 35 points off of them.  Meanwhile the Colts have forced zero turnovers in those two games.  It's hard enough to beat the Pats when you don't spot them 35 points in two games.  This is the same way BB's team would beat Peyton.  Frustrate him into a mistake and take advantage of it when he makes one.  Luck needs to stay patient and just take what they give him and understand a punt or sack isn't the worst thing that can happen. 

[Superman]

Nice stats, I don't know the colts special teams but I know Edelman can break a punt return at any time. Man is electrifying on returns.

 

I get the feeling we won't give him the chance. 

[krunk]

I think the key is to remain balanced.  I'm hoping we don't get too one dimensional with the passing game.

I want to get the running game churning so we can play some keep away with both phases of the offense. Something like the Bengals or Titans games.  I want a distinctive time of possession advantage.  The Pats are talking openly about keeping an up tempo offense.  They want to get up on us quickly, and force us to play from behind like the game they played against Denver.  They would love nothing more than to sit back in coverage waiting on the interception and not have to worry about the run.  Let's get some old school football going on these boyz!

[-JJ-]

Yardage stats don't mean a lot.  Efficiency means a lot though... converting third downs, maximizing points in the redzone, creating turnovers, not turning the ball over.  That's why I like the Aikman Efficiency Ratings, takes all that important stuff into consideration.  After week 10:

 

The Colts have an Offensive AER of 91.0 (3rd) and a D AER of 67.3 (18th) for a combined of 158.3 (7th)

 

The Pats have an Offensive AER of 90 (6th) and a D AER of 67.8 (16th) for a combined of 157.8 (8th)

 

Now AER does not factor in special teams to the over, just offensive and defensive efficiency.  For my office pool, I use a formula that includes the current overall, then factoring in any moves up or down over the past 5 weeks and a certain number of points for the home team.  I win 5 or 6 times a year and another 5 or 6 times when I lose based on points of the MNF game, so it's proven (to me at least) to be a pretty reliable gauge.

Then I would think you'd like footballoutsiders.com  which is in the same vein but much more in depth including ST, D & O lines, even defense of WR 1,2,3,4 etc

[JlynRN]

The Colts will get yards not points. Luck will have at least 300 and maybe even 400 yards in the loss.

 

Don't you mean 300-400 yards in the WIN

[Indyboy757]

The Colts will get yards not points. Luck will have at least 300 and maybe even 400 yards in the loss.

why do you think we can't score points, and why do you think we can't win?

[backshoulderfade]

In terms of st, id take the Colts unit as a whole, but definitely take Edelman as a returner.

[Indyboy757]

They have a significantly better turnover ratio compared to the Colts. I know a lot of that is because Brady throws far less interceptions than Luck, but they are still a solid unit and I would take all stats with a pinch of salt.

 

Think of the passing yards the Colts gave up against the Giants. Eli ended up with over 350 yards but they meant nothing because they were blown out 41-10 when the game still meant something. The Pats have blown out teams this year and it's natural for the opponent to gain yards due to soft play/coverage.

 

I think far too much emphasis is placed on stats and not enough actually game-watching is going on.

Eli didn't get close to 100 yards until late in the 3rd..