Trade Down Value

[hockey878]

Based on this trade value chart for the nfl draft http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

we could realistically trade down with the browns and acquire at MINIMUM

Their two 2012 1st round picks (we'll say #10 and #20)

2012 3rd round pick (#74)

2013 1st round pick

2013 3rd round pick

And thats not considering that the number 1 prospect being andrew luck we could maybe squeeze a bit more out of them. Maybe a 2013 2nd rounder instead of 3.

In this scenario we could:

#10 Claiborne

#20 Brandon Thompson

#33 Nick Toon or Kendall Wright

Plus we have #65 and 74 in round 3.

On top of that, we will likely have a top 10 pick next year. To me this is the way to go. Andrew luck is great, but there is no way he comes in and instantly turns this team around. There isnt enough talent, we need to retool before we can draft a QB. If you get all these extra picks there is a good chance at least 2 or 3 will be big impact players. Then I would like us to draft either Tyler Wilson or Bray next year. They can learn from peyton for 3 years and take over the reigns.

If peyton cant play this coming year. Well, then we have TWO top 10 picks with one likely being number 1 overall. And then we are in GREAT shape to totally rebuild the team in just two years.

Now, if we draft luck and he busts. Or even is good, but just not good enough to carry a whole NFL team. Then we find ourselves in a big big hole for the next 5 years.

[Rich Cannon]

either way, trading down or keeping picks we are in a great draft situation, i actually wouldnt mind trading down and taking another qb like Barkley or next best available with our 1st pick, not to mention the other draft picks we would aquire

[BmoreColt]

With that Prospect being Luck.. and Barkley and Griffin considering staying in school, and fingers crossed Landry Jones gets in on that trend, the asking price could be even higher! I think Cleveland would use their two first rounders on Luck, McCoy is not the answer, they are rebuilding anyway, and have plenty of cap room to get impact free agents, therefore they can package their draft picks for a franchise QB and get a play making wide receiver in free agency and other skill positions to put Luck in a good position. If these other guys go back to school.. I see more of both the first round picks, their second, their fourth this year, their first and fourth next year and their first the following... its more along the lines of 3 first round draft picks!

[doogansquest]

McCoy is a baller, but he doesn't have anyone to throw to, and his running game (see: Hillis) has basically mailed it in. He doesn't have a lot to work with. Cleveland would be better spent giving Colt one more year and using their two 1st round picks on acquiring some help for the young QB. Remember, this is basically his first full year starting. Would you really just quit on him that early? He's got more wins than Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, and Sam Bradford. Are those teams going to quit on those young prospects so early too?

Cleveland will not be trading with us for the #1 pick, I promise you.

[BmoreColt]

Colt McCoy is not a "baller" the tv announcers just this past Sunday talked about how they are not happy with him and are considering moving in a new direction? What about Jimmy Clausen, another second round draft pick who Carolina gave up on when they drafted Cam Newton the very next year? You can shine a turd all you want and cover it up, but its still a piece of *... They would be much wiser to use the draft picks as a package deal to get the one player to really help the organization, with all the cap room they have, they need to spend 99% of it, as all NFL teams have to by next season.. so they go get the QB they want in the draft who is probably better than McCoy right now, and use the cap room elsewhere. They can get receivers, a running back, and pieces on defense with all the cap money they have to spend. What free agent out there at QB is going to be there long term answer at the position? They already traded back for extra picks, why wouldn't they use those picks to trade up for a player at the most important position in football? VERY LOGICAL SCENARIO..Despite the little credit you give it!

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

Why wouldn't we use the pick on the most important position & Cleveland would? MoCoy isn't great but I think he has a shot to be good. Cleveland IS NOT A TALENTED TEAM & could use the picks them self's. If they were sold on Luck I wouldn't mind making the trade at all, but your scenario of 4 first rd picks, don't think so I think we would be lucky to get there 2 #1's & a 2nd & 3rd. There team Cleveland is not in a position to give away 3 years worth of #1 picks.

[BmoreColt]

Maybe that is asking for too many picks, but Cleveland needs to spend money to be consistent with the new CBA terms, therefore they can go out and get free agents for offense and defense and have the luxury of doing so.

[hockey878]

A few comments.

Cleveland may not be a super talented team, but they are certainly more talented than the 2011 indianapolis colts.

The colts are getting 3 1st round picks in that trade, not 4. I said:

Colts get

2 2012 1st round picks

1 2012 3rd round pick

1 2013 1st round pick

1 2013 3rd round pick.

Its possible you misunderstood me. I said that if peyton wasnt able to play then presumably in 2013 we could have two top 10 picks (ours and the browns)

As for the that maybe being too much, that lines up almost perfectly with the trade value chart. and again, that doesnt even include the fact that with luck being so highly thought of we could squeeze em for maybe a bit more than what it would normally be worth.

[BmoreColt]

I said both this years first round picks, next years, and the year after, so three years worth, but four first round picks.. is what they are saying is too much, not three that you suggested..

[hockey878]

Oh ok. yea i definitely agree with 4 being too much. although if they wanted to give us them i certainly would say no!!

[chad72]

I understand the OP wants the Browns for 2 reasons - they have 2 first round picks that might be low enough to work with the trade value and two, they perenially suck so they would satisfy our evergrowing utopia of stockpiling high picks for the future . The Bengals and Patriots also have 2 first round picks.

Browns need a RB badly if Peyton Hillis leaves and maybe WR or LB early. So, by standing where they are, they are more likely to fill it with quality players for building their team. Also, if they could trade down and trade Julio Jones to Atlanta in 2011 when they could have taken him, and if they could trade out of their No.5 spot to the Jets for Mark Sanchez in 2009, they are more likely to trade down than trade up, if history with Mike Holmgren is any indication. This implies that Mike Holmgren understands that his team needs several pieces and not just 1 piece he can obtain by trading up. This is the draft where they stand to cash in their picks they have accumulated by standing pat and picking the several pieces. Besides, they waited till round 3 to nab McCoy, they can definitely wait till later in round 1 to nab a QB like Landry Jones or Ryan Tannehill should they drop to their later round 1 pick or early round 2 pick.

That is my take on it. So, given the history of the Browns I just stated, and given the history of the Colts to not trade out of their high first round picks in the Polian era (anything in the top 11 - we stood pat and got Peyton at No.1, Edge at No.4 and Freeney at No.11), trading down with the Browns is not going to happen.

[hockey878]

I understand the OP wants the Browns for 2 reasons - they have 2 first round picks that might be low enough to work with the trade value and two, they perenially suck so they would satisfy our evergrowing utopia of stockpiling high picks for the future . The Bengals and Patriots also have 2 first round picks.

Browns need a RB badly if Peyton Hillis leaves and maybe WR or LB early. So, by standing where they are, they are more likely to fill it with quality players for building their team. Also, if they could trade down and trade Julio Jones to Atlanta in 2011 when they could have taken him, and if they could trade out of their No.5 spot to the Jets for Mark Sanchez in 2009, they are more likely to trade down than trade up, if history with Mike Holmgren is any indication. This implies that Mike Holmgren understands that his team needs several pieces and not just 1 piece he can obtain by trading up. This is the draft where they stand to cash in their picks they have accumulated by standing pat and picking the several pieces. Besides, they waited till round 3 to nab McCoy, they can definitely wait till later in round 1 to nab a QB like Landry Jones or Ryan Tannehill should they drop to their later round 1 pick or early round 2 pick.

That is my take on it. So, given the history of the Browns I just stated, and given the history of the Colts to not trade out of their high first round picks in the Polian era (anything in the top 11 - we stood pat and got Peyton at No.1, Edge at No.4 and Freeney at No.11), trading down with the Browns is not going to happen.

probably true. I myself am skeptical that it would actually happen. I just think this would be the ideal situation for us.

[chad72]

probably true. I myself am skeptical that it would actually happen. I just think this would be the ideal situation for us.

Every draft, we fans conjure some mock draft trade down scenario (I have done it myself ) and the Polians end up standing pat, at least in round 1 most of the time. So, I have become skeptical just like in your case where I will believe it when it happens. But it is fun speculating, I will agree on that .

[Bleedin Blue]

McCoy is a baller, but he doesn't have anyone to throw to, and his running game (see: Hillis) has basically mailed it in. He doesn't have a lot to work with. Cleveland would be better spent giving Colt one more year and using their two 1st round picks on acquiring some help for the young QB. Remember, this is basically his first full year starting. Would you really just quit on him that early? He's got more wins than Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, and Sam Bradford. Are those teams going to quit on those young prospects so early too?

Cleveland will not be trading with us for the #1 pick, I promise you.

Agreed. And I posted this over in the main forum but if we end up not selecting Luck then that means the three teams that need quarterbacks the most (Miami, Washington, Seattle) will each get their pick of the the top three names (Luck, Griffin III, and Barkley). Assuming that all declare for the draft that is. This would greatly minimize their likelihood of "trading a boat load of picks" for Luck. We would be better served to draft Luck and then trade for picks/players to keep him off the board and put the squeeze on those teams that need a quarterback as somebody will be left without a new player behind center.

[Moncrief]

With that Prospect being Luck.. and Barkley and Griffin considering staying in school, and fingers crossed Landry Jones gets in on that trend, the asking price could be even higher! I think Cleveland would use their two first rounders on Luck, McCoy is not the answer, they are rebuilding anyway, and have plenty of cap room to get impact free agents, therefore they can package their draft picks for a franchise QB and get a play making wide receiver in free agency and other skill positions to put Luck in a good position. If these other guys go back to school.. I see more of both the first round picks, their second, their fourth this year, their first and fourth next year and their first the following... its more along the lines of 3 first round draft picks!

Funny you and me had the same idea. I posted that on the thread about Matt Barkley is considering returning.

[hockey878]

Agreed. And I posted this over in the main forum but if we end up not selecting Luck then that means the three teams that need quarterbacks the most (Miami, Washington, Seattle) will each get their pick of the the top three names (Luck, Griffin III, and Barkley). Assuming that all declare for the draft that is. This would greatly minimize their likelihood of "trading a boat load of picks" for Luck. We would be better served to draft Luck and then trade for picks/players to keep him off the board and put the squeeze on those teams that need a quarterback as somebody will be left without a new player behind center.

Thats basically the same thing as trading him before you pick him. You just tell all the teams before the draft that you are either going to draft luck or trade the pick.

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

Every draft, we fans conjure some mock draft trade down scenario (I have done it myself ) and the Polians end up standing pat, at least in round 1 most of the time. So, I have become skeptical just like in your case where I will believe it when it happens. But it is fun speculating, I will agree on that .

Chad we have traded Out of the first rd before. Bob Sanders. If Pollian TRULY feels that we are in need of many players & Peyton is healthy I Could see him trading down unless he feels the #1 spot is needed for that Special player.

[doogansquest]

Colt McCoy is not a "baller" the tv announcers just this past Sunday talked about how they are not happy with him and are considering moving in a new direction? What about Jimmy Clausen, another second round draft pick who Carolina gave up on when they drafted Cam Newton the very next year? You can shine a turd all you want and cover it up, but its still a piece of *... They would be much wiser to use the draft picks as a package deal to get the one player to really help the organization, with all the cap room they have, they need to spend 99% of it, as all NFL teams have to by next season.. so they go get the QB they want in the draft who is probably better than McCoy right now, and use the cap room elsewhere. They can get receivers, a running back, and pieces on defense with all the cap money they have to spend. What free agent out there at QB is going to be there long term answer at the position? They already traded back for extra picks, why wouldn't they use those picks to trade up for a player at the most important position in football? VERY LOGICAL SCENARIO..Despite the little credit you give it!

Clausen showed nothing. McCoy has. What the commentators state is irrelevant.

The only way Cleveland considers this option is because Luck's value has gone down due to the rising stock of Barkley and RGIII. They could give up less to get Luck now that he seems to have peaked last year.

McCoy has been fine, but he possibly has the worst talent around him of any starting QB in the league.

[Jason_]

I understand the OP wants the Browns for 2 reasons - they have 2 first round picks that might be low enough to work with the trade value and two, they perenially suck so they would satisfy our evergrowing utopia of stockpiling high picks for the future . The Bengals and Patriots also have 2 first round picks.

Browns need a RB badly if Peyton Hillis leaves and maybe WR or LB early. So, by standing where they are, they are more likely to fill it with quality players for building their team. Also, if they could trade down and trade Julio Jones to Atlanta in 2011 when they could have taken him, and if they could trade out of their No.5 spot to the Jets for Mark Sanchez in 2009, they are more likely to trade down than trade up, if history with Mike Holmgren is any indication. This implies that Mike Holmgren understands that his team needs several pieces and not just 1 piece he can obtain by trading up. This is the draft where they stand to cash in their picks they have accumulated by standing pat and picking the several pieces. Besides, they waited till round 3 to nab McCoy, they can definitely wait till later in round 1 to nab a QB like Landry Jones or Ryan Tannehill should they drop to their later round 1 pick or early round 2 pick.

That is my take on it. So, given the history of the Browns I just stated, and given the history of the Colts to not trade out of their high first round picks in the Polian era (anything in the top 11 - we stood pat and got Peyton at No.1, Edge at No.4 and Freeney at No.11), trading down with the Browns is not going to happen.

All very good points. Cleveland did trade up in the '07 draft for Brady Quinn but that was sadly under a different front office. Holmgren wasn't there yet and their current GM wasn't either so since the new FO came in, they haven't shown any tendency to move up so that sucks.

I still don't think it's completely impossible but very unlikely. Though I've always felt if they were going to move up it would be for either a WR or LT and that it would only happen if we'd already traded out of the #1 spot into the #2-4 range...then Cleveland could be a potential second trade partner. Still very unlikely but I can dream right? lol

[BmoreColt]

@Jason- Why would Cleveland trade up for a LT when they have one of the best in the game?

@Doogan- Agreed McCoy doesn't have talent around him, but he still is not the answer at quarterback for them, and when their announcers are saying it because they are saying it within the organization...then it becomes relevant! They have a large amount of cap space they have to spend this offseason, it would make more sense for them to do so on wide receivers and defensive pieces that are proven to surround with their already talented young pieces, and use those draft picks, package them together, and go get a quarterback! Why draft players and spend free agent money on a quarterback? Thats just backwards, so the Browns could really be a legitimate trade partner...

[Jason_]

@Jason- Why would Cleveland trade up for a LT when they have one of the best in the game?

Because they could use someone on the other side of him. People keep saying the Colts are going to draft an OT even though we drafted 2 last year in rounds 1 and 2 so why would it be crazy to think Cleveland would draft another stud OT to go alongside Joe Thomas? Not saying it's likely but I also don't think it's any more or less likely they'd do this compared to trading up for McCoy. WR would make the most sense though.

[BmoreColt]

Wait, I have been saying the Colts should draft a STUD LT, but Cleveland could wait till later to get a good right tackle instead of trading up for a guy and making him move to right tackle. It would make more sense for them to use their cap room in free agency to fill the holes on the team, and package together draft picks to get their franchise QB! Not pursue a QB in free agency, but rather fill the talent around the drafted QB, since they have plenty of cap room. Depending on what they would have to give away to get Luck if in fact they wanted him, if it were just picks and maybe one player, they could fill any holes in the free agency, which would make more sense. If they lose Haden/TJ Ward/Taylor to the Colts and draft picks, then their will be replacements in free agency, Samuel at corner, plenty of defensive tackles esp cause Taylor is an Undertackle there, and plenty of strong safeties. They have the cap room to get these replacements and to go after a #1 receiver for Luck, and some pieces here and there.

[Jason_]

Wait, I have been saying the Colts should draft a STUD LT, but Cleveland could wait till later to get a good right tackle instead of trading up for a guy and making him move to right tackle. It would make more sense for them to use their cap room in free agency to fill the holes on the team, and package together draft picks to get their franchise QB! Not pursue a QB in free agency, but rather fill the talent around the drafted QB, since they have plenty of cap room. Depending on what they would have to give away to get Luck if in fact they wanted him, if it were just picks and maybe one player, they could fill any holes in the free agency, which would make more sense. If they lose Haden/TJ Ward/Taylor to the Colts and draft picks, then their will be replacements in free agency, Samuel at corner, plenty of defensive tackles esp cause Taylor is an Undertackle there, and plenty of strong safeties. They have the cap room to get these replacements and to go after a #1 receiver for Luck, and some pieces here and there.

Dude, I just said it was a possibility...not a likelihood but a possibility. I also didn't mean you specifically when I said people keep talking about the Colts drafting an OT early. There are a lot of different routes Cleveland can take and I merely was throwing out one possibility.

I will say that Cleveland is not going to lose Haden, Ward and Taylor to the Colts. If a trade is made it will most likely be picks only or picks plus a player...I don't see any team giving up multiple players plus multiple draft picks for any QB prospect. The trade, if made, will likely be for draft picks only imo and personally I'm fine with that. If we can get a quality player in the mix then that's great but not something I expect to happen....3 quality players is definitely not going to happen imo.

[BmoreColt]

Jason your fine bro I didn’t take it personally, I knew what you meant , I was just reiterating that I happen to be one of those people who

would like to see another Tackle preferably a LT drafted and Castonzo moved over to right tackle and Ijalana at Guard. There are definitely a lot of

directions the Browns could go, but I think it’s important to understand they have a lot of cap room that they need to spend and its more logical to go get

the anticipated Luck, giving up picks and possibly players, and acquire players to surround Luck with at the skilled positions in free agency…. than it is to

draft as normal, and use your cap room on a non existing franchise QB that won’t be available. When I named those three players, I meant a minimum of one or any combination of two of those three players and draft picks for the Luck pick.