How to stop the Pats?

[Synthetic]

How do you stop the Pats?

 

Gee I don't know, ask the Chiefs, they wouldn't possibly know how to fold that offense.

[lollygagger8]

Yes, the King of garbage time managed to put up over 400 useless yards by the end of the game. Down 3 scores with under 3 minutes left to play, he was still throwing 30 and 40 yard passes IIRC.

 

But we're talking real football. Not fantasy football.

 

As for Revis, I don't know if you've been watching the games, but he's made everyone he's covered basically disappear. After the first few possessions, Peyton stopped even looking in his direction. I have no idea where you got the idea that Revis has been substandard, He's been pretty shut down phenomenal, actually.

 

I don't know if you've been watching games, but Vontae Davis does the same thing.

 

Also, nobody is covering TY Hilton for an entire game and making him disappear. Sherman couldn't do it. Revis can't do it.  

 

Revis Island is about to be struck by Hurricane Hilton. 

[ViriLudant]

Elite secondary? Manning thre up like 438 yards against that secondary I don't exactly call that elite. And as another poster pointed out Hilton can and will separate from coverage it's what he does...revis isn't the player he once was for sure.

Colts win this game, and I'm calling luck to have 350+ yards 3 tds and Brady will have 280ish yards with 2 tds

Vinateri will have 3 FGs and Gostkowski will have 2 FG's, pats put up 2 rushing tds while colts put up 1....

Add that all up and it's Colts 37 and Pats 34

Pats will pull close within 5 mins but we hold the ball to expire the clock....so it comes down to a FG somewhere along the lines that won the game

Whoa, all of a sudden the Colts have a better defense than Denver? The Patriots put up 43 on Denver, yet will do worse against Indy?

I don't see the logic there.

Funny how you ignore the fact that Denver scored 21 points. Yards don't matter if you can't score. Only FF people care about yards.

[amfootball]

If the Pats are able to stop the run in their nickel like they did vs Denver than lights out.

[amfootball]

Hit Brady early and often. He's gotten soft in his advanced age.

He has worked a lot on his footwork this off-season and it is showing with his ability to get outside the pocket and buy time and make plays. I think he has realized that he just does not have the line anymore so he has to create more to make plays and stay healthy.

[sweetsurrender]

This is a terrible, terrible match up for us. We are vulnerable over the middle and that is the Pats bread and butter and Brady is insanely good indoors. This could be worse than Pitt as I am not sure our O will be able to put up points either on that secondary. Glad we have the bye to prepare.

[sweetsurrender]

Whoa, all of a sudden the Colts have a better defense than Denver? The Patriots put up 43 on Denver, yet will do worse against Indy?

I don't see the logic there.

Funny how you ignore the fact that Denver scored 21 points. Yards don't matter if you can't score. Only FF people care about yards.

Our defense is playing above its talent level IMO. Good team defense but you saw what happened in Pitt. This could be ugly.

[pgt_rob]

Hey it's that time of year again when patriot fans post outside of Colts NFL General.

[sweetsurrender]

I don't know if you've been watching games, but Vontae Davis does the same thing.

 

Also, nobody is covering TY Hilton for an entire game and making him disappear. Sherman couldn't do it. Revis can't do it.  

 

Revis Island is about to be struck by Hurricane Hilton. 

They will rotate coverage on Hilton and man up with Revis and also zone with safety help and off-coverage as well to prevent anything deep. They won't let TY beat them. Not with this secondary and LB core. We need our other guys to step up big.

[Smash Mouth]

What's up, guys and gals?

 

 

So a lot of Patriot fans over at Patfans are worried about this game and I'm apparently crazy because I'm not - not anymore than any game.

To be fair, though, I have only seen 3 Colt games this year, and 2 of them were your losses in the early season, not that I put a lock of stock in the first 4 or 5 weeks of an NFL season.

 

My confidence comes basically from two things:

 

1. I just don't know how you're going to stop Gronk... I feel like any season he can remain healthy is going to be another Lombardi for Tom.

 

2. As much as I actually like Luck (and I do, that isn't blowing smoke), he just hasn't put his big boy pants on against the Patriots yet. 4 interceptions in both two games for a total of 8, and that was with rather suspect defenses.

 

This year with McCourty, Browner and Revis, and a whole lot of depth, the Patriots are boasting the most elite secondary in the NFL, and Andrew Luck is going to have to play on a level he's never shown Belichick before to get it done.

 

I just don't see it happening for Indianapolis, but I'm in a very small minority apparently with Patriot fans. As someone who hasn't seen enough Colt games this year to really have a good grasp on your team, I was hoping you could tell me what my fellow Pats fans are so worried about.

 

Thanks in advance!

You don't have to worry about the Colts until after they beat you.  All this stuff is just talk.  But....

 

I'm a Colts fan living in Boston so I watch the pats almost as much as the Colts.    But  a big part of your defensive success is that the Pat's offense has emerged.  Mostly due to Gronk and the OLine getting its act together.  You got up early on the Broncos and that made Broncos one-dimensional. Plus you were in Gillette - that cannot be under estimated.  The formula for beating the Pats has not changed since the Giants beat you in the SB: you have to hit Brady all night long - he too gets a look in his eye when he's getting hit a lot.  Thats when the pretty boy in him comes out.  Miami and KC both knocked him around.  In this regard he's not like Luck who you can hit all day long and he keeps chucking it.

 

I'm clueless on how we to stop Gronk if Brady has time.  The Colts LBs have been shredded by TEs all season long.  The Colts play press coverage and are pretty good at it,  Its the only way to disrupt Brady - he has to hold that ball a split second longer than he wants to.  The Colts defense is better than last year but Mathis's injury is huge.  This is the kind of game that his edge rush is needed.  We live and die by the blitz.

 

Last year when we played you, it was a dink and dunk offense because of all of the injuries we had - no Ahmad Bradshaw, No Reggie Wayne, No Dwayne Allen, 3 OL starters lost for the season, an awful Trent Richardson, and a 2nd year QB.  Colts had to play you twice in Gillette.  Yes injuries are part of the game but there is a reality to the drop off from starters to reserves.

 

Your defense can be beat by a balanced, dynamic offense.  This is the Colts strength but we still lack consistency because of the youth - Luck still has much to learn as does our play makers.  You don't have a great pass rush - its all about scheme.  Granted you have Belicheck who is the best but he can't play.  The Colts have the offensive weapons to take advantage but a lot has to go right:

1. Run the football - both Miami and KC showed how this effects the Pats.
2. Don't turnover the football.  A problem for Luck against this defense as you pointed out.  I fear Luck just isn't mature enough yet.
3. Protect Luck - this is the key to the Pats defense.  You don't have a great pass rush.  The Colts have handled better but they have had trouble the past two games.  The Colts can't let Ninkovich beat them - I feel like he's the key to that defense, he's the real play maker.
4. Score touchdowns in the Red Zone

[lollygagger8]

Besides them being 26th against the run, running it down the throats of the Pats is how we win this game. 

 

Control the clock, and play action them all day long. 

[amfootball]

 

You don't have to worry about the Colts until after they beat you.  All this stuff is just talk.  But....

 

I'm a Colts fan living in Boston so I watch the pats almost as much as the Colts.    But  a big part of your defensive success is that the Pat's offense has emerged.  Mostly due to Gronk and the OLine getting its act together.  You got up early on the Broncos and that made Broncos one-dimensional. Plus you were in Gillette - that cannot be under estimated.  The formula for beating the Pats has not changed since the Giants beat you in the SB: you have to hit Brady all night long - he too gets a look in his eye when he's getting hit a lot.  Thats when the pretty boy in him comes out.  Miami and KC both knocked him around.  In this regard he's not like Luck who you can hit all day long and he keeps chucking it.

 

I'm clueless on how we to stop Gronk if Brady has time.  The Colts LBs have been shredded by TEs all season long.  The Colts play press coverage and are pretty good at it,  Its the only way to disrupt Brady - he has to hold that ball a split second longer than he wants to.  The Colts defense is better than last year but Mathis's injury is huge.  This is the kind of game that his edge rush is needed.  We live and die by the blitz.

 

Last year when we played you, it was a dink and dunk offense because of all of the injuries we had - no Ahmad Bradshaw, No Reggie Wayne, No Dwayne Allen, 3 OL starters lost for the season, an awful Trent Richardson, and a 2nd year QB.  Colts had to play you twice in Gillette.  Yes injuries are part of the game but there is a reality to the drop off from starters to reserves.

 

Your defense can be beat by a balanced, dynamic offense.  This is the Colts strength but we still lack consistency because of the youth - Luck still has much to learn as does our play makers.  You don't have a great pass rush - its all about scheme.  Granted you have Belicheck who is the best but he can't play.  The Colts have the offensive weapons to take advantage but a lot has to go right:

1. Run the football - both Miami and KC showed how this effects the Pats.
2. Don't turnover the football.  A problem for Luck against this defense as you pointed out.  I fear Luck just isn't mature enough yet.
3. Protect Luck - this is the key to the Pats defense.  You don't have a great pass rush.  The Colts have handled better but they have had trouble the past two games.  The Colts can't let Ninkovich beat them - I feel like he's the key to that defense, he's the real play maker.
4. Score touchdowns in the Red Zone

 

Few things here.

 

1) The defense changed when Browner came off of suspension. It got that same swag that it has last year with Talib was in. He brings the physical presence and enough coverage skill for Bill to let him and Revis man up which Bill was not doing with Revis earlier in the year. In addition, the two LBs the Pats added have helped to sure up the run defense.

 

2) The Pats did not get up early on the Broncos. It was 7-3 Broncos after the first quarter. What the Pats did is stop Denver's run game early on with its nickel coverage on the field. That was the key to the game and the biggest difference from last year's game when Moreno ran rough shod over that same defensive look. Once the Pats stopped the run, Peyton was then forced to pass against a pass heavy look which allowed Bill to be as creative as he wanted with coverage and pressure resulting in the Nink pick and the Pats defense getting off the field on both third and fourth downs. Denver was 3-11 on third and 0-4 on fourth. Biggest key to the game right there.

 

3) Gronk is a big part of the O but the emergence of Lafells is bigger. He is a big guy on the outside that can get downfield. Then you add in Edelman from the slot and this may be the most explosive Pats offense since 2007.

 

4) Luck is the key to the game for you. He has thrown 7 picks in two games vs the Pats. He has to be patient and not force throws or stare down receivers. The problem is the Pats O will put pressure on him to score. He has to be consistent for 60 minutes for the Colts to even have a chance. He can't look like he did vs Pitt and throw pick sixes.

[Superman]

True we don't have Mathis or anyone of his caliber as an edge rusher, though Newsome has been improving week to week as has Werner.  However, what about the interior of their OL?  They have a rookie at C and don't have a player of Logan Mankins' caliber when he was in his prime either.  I really like our interior DL in those sub packages...can Redding, RJF, Jones (if he's back), Kerr and Hughes bring pressure from the interior to take some of the pressure off Newsome and Werner on the edge?  And also let Newsome stunt to the interior several times to keep him away from the OT's.  Newsome's burst and acceleration once he clears the line is uncanny...I remember you and I discussing that in a thread right after he was drafted.  

 

Yeah, if we can get push up the middle, it will make things easier for our edge guys. That's particularly true for a guy like Brady, who is as good as anyone at finding the clean spots in the pocket. So it's important to shrink the pocket as much as possible. And the Pats aren't great in the interior.

 

I have to tone down my enthusiasm for Newsome. I'm starting to feel like one of those Mike Hart or Roy Hall fans. But yeah, he's quick enough to stunt if we can get their line off balance. 

[Superman]

If the Pats are able to stop the run in their nickel like they did vs Denver than lights out.

 

I'm not sure that's relevant. The question is whether they can stop the pass in nickel, or any other personnel grouping. 

[amfootball]

I'm not sure that's relevant. The question is whether they can stop the pass in nickel, or any other personnel grouping. 

I think they will give a pass heavy look give the weapons on the Colts like they did vs Broncos. If Colts can run on it with any success than they will have to switch it up. They mixed coverages a ton with Manning. Interested to see what route they take vs Luck.

[Superman]

I think they will give a pass heavy look give the weapons on the Colts like they did vs Broncos. If Colts can run on it with any success than they will have to switch it up. They mixed coverages a ton with Manning. Interested to see what route they take vs Luck.

 

My point is that, even if they dare us to run it, they still have to get stops in the passing game. We will run the ball, and I think we'll run more effectively than the Broncos did, but we're also going to throw it. And when we do, the Pats have to make plays. Don't think that just because they come out in nickel that we're not going to challenge it.

[GoPats]

Ah, Colts week. When we migrate to this side of the board. This is going to be an interesting game I think. 

 

Elite secondary? Manning thre up like 438 yards against that secondary I don't exactly call that elite. And as another poster pointed out Hilton can and will separate from coverage it's what he does...revis isn't the player he once was for sure.
 

 

I'm not exaggerating when I say...

 

I'm not sure I've ever seen a more meaningless 400-yard game in almost 40 years of watching football. The Patriots held the Broncos passing game in check for the vast majority of the game. Passing yards don't matter when you're not scoring, when you're not converting 3rd downs or 4th downs, or when you're turning the ball over. Denver did a lot of all of those things on Sunday night. 

 

I guess we'll find out whether or not New England's revamped secondary can hold up to the Indy passing attack. If you want to base your opinion on Manning putting up 400 in a 20+ point loss, go for it. 

 

Pay the officials more than they do.

 

Preemptive complaining CD... covering those bases as usual there, buddy?  ;)

 

 

In all seriousness though, I'm expecting a good game. Will this be the moment that Luck gets his first win against Belichick and Brady? It took Manning longer, but it's certainly a possibility. Obviously the Colts, if they play well, can beat any team in the league at this point. 

 

Indy's one and pretty much only key to victory, in my opinion, is do not turn the ball over. No stat correlates to wins and losses more than turnovers. Pretty simple but it's just a matter of executing well.

 

Good luck, enjoy the game, here's to no injuries! 

[amfootball]

My point is that, even if they dare us to run it, they still have to get stops in the passing game. We will run the ball, and I think we'll run more effectively than the Broncos did, but we're also going to throw it. And when we do, the Pats have to make plays. Don't think that just because they come out in nickel that we're not going to challenge it.

Sure and the Pats did both of things against Denver - stopped the run in a pass defense and defended the pass. The Colts do have a better run game but I have a tough time seeing them really stick to it as they are going to have to put up points to stay with Brady and co. The match ups are intriguing similar to Denver but honestly I just don't fear the Colts D at all given our weapons. I feared Denver's D much more.

[sweetsurrender]

Ah, Colts week. When we migrate to this side of the board. This is going to be an interesting game I think. 

 

 

I'm not exaggerating when I say...

 

I'm not sure I've ever seen a more meaningless 400-yard game in almost 40 years of watching football. The Patriots held the Broncos passing game in check for the vast majority of the game. Passing yards don't matter when you're not scoring, when you're not converting 3rd downs or 4th downs, or when you're turning the ball over. Denver did a lot of all of those things on Sunday night. 

 

I guess we'll find out whether or not New England's revamped secondary can hold up to the Indy passing attack. If you want to base your opinion on Manning putting up 400 in a 20+ point loss, go for it. 

 

 

Preemptive complaining CD... covering those bases as usual there, buddy?  ;)

 

 

In all seriousness though, I'm expecting a good game. Will this be the moment that Luck gets his first win against Belichick and Brady? It took Manning longer, but it's certainly a possibility. Obviously the Colts, if they play well, can beat any team in the league at this point. 

 

Indy's one and pretty much only key to victory, in my opinion, is do not turn the ball over. No stat correlates to wins and losses more than turnovers. Pretty simple but it's just a matter of executing well.

 

Good luck, enjoy the game, here's to no injuries! 

Manning said he stunk after the game, played below average so that pretty much underscores what you are saying. They turned the ball over and did not covert to stay on the field. Colts need to do well in both areas to have a chance.

[TAPLOOK]

Brady's arm strength and field awareness are still outstanding as always. With his lack of mobility pressure up the middle has been his kryptonite. He's moving the pocket this year which is new and it's working. With that said it's one thing trying to pressure up the middle and another to actually do it. The Colts are screwed when the Patriots hit LOS.

[Jason_]

Yeah, if we can get push up the middle, it will make things easier for our edge guys. That's particularly true for a guy like Brady, who is as good as anyone at finding the clean spots in the pocket. So it's important to shrink the pocket as much as possible. And the Pats aren't great in the interior.

 

I have to tone down my enthusiasm for Newsome. I'm starting to feel like one of those Mike Hart or Roy Hall fans. But yeah, he's quick enough to stunt if we can get their line off balance. 

 

Yep, it's been said numerous times that with guys like Manning and Brady, the best way to get after them is with pressure up the middle, not necessarily pressure off the edge.  They are both expert at moving up and sliding around the pocket to avoid edge pressure, but it's much more difficult to avoid pressure up the middle, and I think our guys can do that against their OL.  

 

I also know what you mean about Newsome.  After the Giants game, I caught myself trying to figure out what it would take for him to make DROY...had to tell myself to slow my role. lol

[imacoltfan]

Honestly, no solution yet. Its all up to the defense up to this point. The performance against the Steelers is just unacceptable. Even the Jags defense couldve atleast stopped them in a couple drives.

 

The fact that the defense cannot get to the quarterback is a huge problem at this point...

 

Management shouldve traded for or picked up someone already from free agency...

 

 

You're 1000% correct. 24 sacks after 9 games is completely unacceptable. SMH. It was one game. Maybe, just maybe, the Steelers had the right attack for our defense and we didn't adjust properly. 

[CoachLite]

Our defense is playing above its talent level IMO. Good team defense but you saw what happened in Pitt. This could be ugly.

If we assume that "talent level" is reasonably constant within our defense, how can you explain the Bengals then the Steelers? My simple answer, we got LeBeau-toxed, but more probably out-coached on both sides of the ball by much more experienced and talented coaches. This is not to dismiss our coaching, but only that they have a lot to learn.

[BOTT]

He has worked a lot on his footwork this off-season and it is showing with his ability to get outside the pocket and buy time and make plays. I think he has realized that he just does not have the line anymore so he has to create more to make plays and stay healthy.

Yeah, I have noticed that. At first I thought it was just a fluke, but he has made a number of plays moving out of the pocket.

[Superman]

Sure and the Pats did both of things against Denver - stopped the run in a pass defense and defended the pass. The Colts do have a better run game but I have a tough time seeing them really stick to it as they are going to have to put up points to stay with Brady and co. The match ups are intriguing similar to Denver but honestly I just don't fear the Colts D at all given our weapons. I feared Denver's D much more.

 

I think you have it backward, to be honest. The Colts are the #1 offense in the league, we score more than any other team, we have more first downs than anyone, more TOP than anyone, we convert more on third down than the Pats, we commit fewer offensive penalties than the Pats. We run more effectively, both in total yardage, yards per carry, TDs, etc., etc. The only area where the Pats offense is better than the Colts is in the red zone, and that's important, but again, we still score more. By the numbers, we have the better offense. And we're at home.

 

So I think the Patriots have to put up points to keep up with the Colts offense.

 

Also, back to your point, I think if you stubbornly stick to nickel, we can beat you out of it. I don't think that's a winning strategy.

 

You don't have to fear the Colts D. It's not necessarily fearsome. But I do think we matchup well with the Patriots offense, everywhere except for Gronk. 

[amfootball]

I think you have it backward, to be honest. The Colts are the #1 offense in the league, we score more than any other team, we have more first downs than anyone, more TOP than anyone, we convert more on third down than the Pats, we commit fewer offensive penalties than the Pats. We run more effectively, both in total yardage, yards per carry, TDs, etc., etc. The only area where the Pats offense is better than the Colts is in the red zone, and that's important, but again, we still score more. By the numbers, we have the better offense. And we're at home.

 

So I think the Patriots have to put up points to keep up with the Colts offense.

 

Also, back to your point, I think if you stubbornly stick to nickel, we can beat you out of it. I don't think that's a winning strategy.

 

You don't have to fear the Colts D. It's not necessarily fearsome. But I do think we matchup well with the Patriots offense, everywhere except for Gronk. 

The way the Pats offense has been humming the last few weeks is my reasoning for looking at the Colts D. I think there are favorable match ups beyond Gronk. I think Vareen could also be a mis-match as well as Wright given your inability to cover TEs.

 

So if you want to say the offenses are on par with an edge to the Colts that is fine but I think the Pats have a big advantage defensively. Pats won't stay in nickel. They didn't vs the Broncos either but when they had a pass look, Denver still could not run. Big key to that game.

 

Question for you - how has your STs been? I know Adam is Adam but how about your coverage teams and punt/kick returns? STs played a big role vs Denver which I accurately predicated it would.

[sweetsurrender]

If we assume that "talent level" is reasonably constant within our defense, how can you explain the Bengals then the Steelers? My simple answer, we got LeBeau-toxed, but more probably out-coached on both sides of the ball by much more experienced and talented coaches. This is not to dismiss our coaching, but only that they have a lot to learn.

I agree. Bill could roll us for that reason alone. I don't have a ton of faith in our coaches to stay even with him much less out coach him. He made Fox look silly. And he has two weeks to prepare for us.

[Superman]

The way the Pats offense has been humming the last few weeks is my reasoning for looking at the Colts D. I think there are favorable match ups beyond Gronk. I think Vareen could also be a mis-match as well as Wright given your inability to cover TEs.

 

So if you want to say the offenses are on par with an edge to the Colts that is fine but I think the Pats have a big advantage defensively. Pats won't stay in nickel. They didn't vs the Broncos either but when they had a pass look, Denver still could not run. Big key to that game.

 

Question for you - how has your STs been? I know Adam is Adam but how about your coverage teams and punt/kick returns? STs played a big role vs Denver which I accurately predicated it would.

 

Special teams has been the best in the league. Best punter, perfect kicker (so far), our defensive starting field position is good, we don't give up returns, most of our kickoffs are touchbacks, we've downed a bunch of punts inside the 10, and we are perfect on onside kicks. Not a lot of daylight for you there. And given how Edelman hurt us on a punt return last year, I get the feeling we're going to make sure he doesn't hurt us. I expect to see our punts stay in the air for close to 5 seconds every time. Our only weakness is we don't have a good return game, but again, we have one of the best offenses in the league.

 

I don't think you have favorable matchups, outside of Gronk. I'm not saying everyone else is automatically shut down. The other guys will make some plays. But again, you don't have favorable matchups. You can't pick on either of our outside corners, and Butler is one of the best nickels in the league (and has played well against Edelman and similar inside receivers in the past). You have to make a concerted effort to get the ball to Vereen, and that will only work if Brady has time. It will have to be angle routes across the middle, or swing routes once the defense has fallen back. Of course, if Brady has time, then these matchups don't really matter.

 

And then you say you think the Pats have an advantage defensively. Again, I ask, who's going to cover TY Hilton? I think both teams will have their hands full defensively, but you're kind of painting a picture of a Pats offense that has some kind of edge over the Colts offense, and I don't think they do. You say we have to keep up with the Pats, but I think the Pats have to keep up with us. And I don't think you can come in and dare us to run against your nickel look; I think that's an awkward presumption that won't work out well for you.

 

Of course, nothing's more important than taking care of the football on offense, and getting pressure on the QB on defense. If we don't do those two things, then none of this matters.

[amfootball]

Special teams has been the best in the league. Best punter, perfect kicker (so far), our defensive starting field position is good, we don't give up returns, most of our kickoffs are touchbacks, we've downed a bunch of punts inside the 10, and we are perfect on onside kicks. Not a lot of daylight for you there. And given how Edelman hurt us on a punt return last year, I get the feeling we're going to make sure he doesn't hurt us. I expect to see our punts stay in the air for close to 5 seconds every time. Our only weakness is we don't have a good return game, but again, we have one of the best offenses in the league.

 

I don't think you have favorable matchups, outside of Gronk. I'm not saying everyone else is automatically shut down. The other guys will make some plays. But again, you don't have favorable matchups. You can't pick on either of our outside corners, and Butler is one of the best nickels in the league (and has played well against Edelman and similar inside receivers in the past). You have to make a concerted effort to get the ball to Vereen, and that will only work if Brady has time. It will have to be angle routes across the middle, or swing routes once the defense has fallen back. Of course, if Brady has time, then these matchups don't really matter.

 

And then you say you think the Pats have an advantage defensively. Again, I ask, who's going to cover TY Hilton? I think both teams will have their hands full defensively, but you're kind of painting a picture of a Pats offense that has some kind of edge over the Colts offense, and I don't think they do. You say we have to keep up with the Pats, but I think the Pats have to keep up with us. And I don't think you can come in and dare us to run against your nickel look; I think that's an awkward presumption that won't work out well for you.

 

Of course, nothing's more important than taking care of the football on offense, and getting pressure on the QB on defense. If we don't do those two things, then none of this matters.

I see favorable match-ups on offense and defense for the Pats but for sure Colts have theirs as well.

 

I think it will be a tight game but honestly, I just don't see Pagano staying with Bill. As I said to you before, Bill has the most talent on defense he has ever had to work with and TY really did not make a lot of hay last year outside of a couple of long catches, only 6 targets I believe. He is the first guy that Bill will take away and I really don't see your other guys as being in the same league as Denver's guys. I do think Bill will bring pressure and I do think Luck turns it over in this game at least twice maybe more.

[Coffeedrinker]

 

Preemptive complaining CD... covering those bases as usual there, buddy?  ;)

 

 

In all seriousness though, I'm expecting a good game. Will this be the moment that Luck gets his first win against Belichick and Brady? It took Manning longer, but it's certainly a possibility. Obviously the Colts, if they play well, can beat any team in the league at this point. 

 

Indy's one and pretty much only key to victory, in my opinion, is do not turn the ball over. No stat correlates to wins and losses more than turnovers. Pretty simple but it's just a matter of executing well.

 

Good luck, enjoy the game, here's to no injuries! 

I almost said, make sure the lens cover stays on the camera but went with the refs instead.  Experience is a good teacher GoPats.  

 

 

Scattered throughout are what I think the Colts need to do to win.  On offense they need to establish and then continue the running game.  I would really like to see 25-30 carries between TRich and Bradshaw.  Then in the passing game they have to use both Allen and Fleener... Collins can only cover one of them.  Keep TY off the line so they can't jam him.  Defensively, I think the Colts should be Toler of LeFell, Butler and Amendola(sp?) and put Davis on Gronk.  Then use zone coverage with the LBs and safeties.  Lbers are in zones between the hashes from 3 - 18 yards and the safeties just playing two deep.   Then when they do bring an extra guy on a blitz... disguise it or show one thing and bring another.

 

yes, easier said than done.  But that is why they get paid the big bucks... to figure this stuff out.

[Superman]

I see favorable match-ups on offense and defense for the Pats but for sure Colts have theirs as well.

 

I think it will be a tight game but honestly, I just don't see Pagano staying with Bill. As I said to you before, Bill has the most talent on defense he has ever had to work with and TY really did not make a lot of hay last year outside of a couple of long catches, only 6 targets I believe. He is the first guy that Bill will take away and I really don't see your other guys as being in the same league as Denver's guys. I do think Bill will bring pressure and I do think Luck turns it over in this game at least twice maybe more.

 

Belichick is probably the best coach in the league. Yet, the Pats lose games from time to time. I'm not too concerned with Pagano vs Belichick. I still think the game mostly comes down to how the players execute, unless you've got someone making really bad decisions on either of the sidelines. 

 

You're also forecasting turnovers, despite the fact that we'll be coming off of a bye, and the coaches will be in Luck's ear all week about taking care of the football. Luck threw 9 interceptions last year, as a second year QB. He can take care of the ball when he puts his mind to it. 

 

Also, we're not Denver. Our receivers aren't as good, but we run a different offense, we have a more varied attack, and we don't run the ball as a novelty. Revis vs Thomas is a different matchup than Revis vs Hilton, if that's even the way the Pats choose to go. Our QB will shrug off pressure, and even get out and run for first downs. And as I mentioned in another thread, you won't have the wind as an ally. 

 

Saying 'our defense held up against Denver, and they have better receivers, so we should be fine against the Colts' isn't really acknowledging how football works. Go back and watch how much trouble you guys had with Travis Kelce, for instance. Or how effective the Dolphins 1-2 rushing combo was. The Broncos have better receivers than both of those teams. 

 

Even comparing your defensive approach from last year's playoff game is a miss, IMO. The put a lot of effort into keeping Hilton in check, and he still had 100+ yards and a long TD. And that's when we didn't have Reggie, didn't have Dwayne Allen, didn't have a running game, and again, that game was in Gillette. Focus all of that attention on Hilton in this game, and the other guys will make more plays than they did last year.

[GoPats]

I almost said, make sure the lens cover stays on the camera but went with the refs instead.  Experience is a good teacher GoPats.  

 

 

Scattered throughout are what I think the Colts need to do to win.  On offense they need to establish and then continue the running game.  I would really like to see 25-30 carries between TRich and Bradshaw.  Then in the passing game they have to use both Allen and Fleener... Collins can only cover one of them.  Keep TY off the line so they can't jam him.  Defensively, I think the Colts should be Toler of LeFell, Butler and Amendola(sp?) and put Davis on Gronk.  Then use zone coverage with the LBs and safeties.  Lbers are in zones between the hashes from 3 - 18 yards and the safeties just playing two deep.   Then when they do bring an extra guy on a blitz... disguise it or show one thing and bring another.

 

yes, easier said than done.  But that is why they get paid the big bucks... to figure this stuff out.

 

I would like for the Colts to try to pound the run, unless it's because they're milking the clock with a big lead! Every running play is one less pass that Luck will be making, and one less potential bomb to Hilton. It's not unlike the strategy the Patriots deployed with Manning and the Broncos. Stay in the sub, make it too tempting to hand it off, concede the run a little but try to limit the gains. 

 

I've seen a lot of suggested game plans and coverage match-ups in this thread. Everyone's got an opinion of who should be on who. But really, unless you've got a guy shadowing another guy, you know that's not how it works. You have to mix it up at least a little. I think putting your best corner on Gronk might be a mistake, because as good as Davis has been, he's giving up a lot of size, and Gronkowski does a terrific job of using his big frame to get good position on defenders. Plus he's spent a lot of time doing one-on-one drills with Revis covering him and Brady throwing him the ball. 

 

Part of me also thinks that, even though they've been chucking it all over the field lately, the Patriots will come out and test the Indy run D early on. You'll see it out of the 2 TE set quite a bit I think. They obviously saw that as a weakness in the playoffs last year when Blount ran for 817 yards (or whatever it was... obvious hyperbole is obvious). He's gone, of course, and Ridley's out for the year, but Vereen has been playing well and I like this kid (Jonas Gray) they have in their "big back" role at the moment. 

[amfootball]

Belichick is probably the best coach in the league. Yet, the Pats lose games from time to time. I'm not too concerned with Pagano vs Belichick. I still think the game mostly comes down to how the players execute, unless you've got someone making really bad decisions on either of the sidelines. 

 

You're also forecasting turnovers, despite the fact that we'll be coming off of a bye, and the coaches will be in Luck's ear all week about taking care of the football. Luck threw 9 interceptions last year, as a second year QB. He can take care of the ball when he puts his mind to it. 

 

Also, we're not Denver. Our receivers aren't as good, but we run a different offense, we have a more varied attack, and we don't run the ball as a novelty. Revis vs Thomas is a different matchup than Revis vs Hilton, if that's even the way the Pats choose to go. Our QB will shrug off pressure, and even get out and run for first downs. And as I mentioned in another thread, you won't have the wind as an ally. 

 

Saying 'our defense held up against Denver, and they have better receivers, so we should be fine against the Colts' isn't really acknowledging how football works. Go back and watch how much trouble you guys had with Travis Kelce, for instance. Or how effective the Dolphins 1-2 rushing combo was. The Broncos have better receivers than both of those teams. 

 

Even comparing your defensive approach from last year's playoff game is a miss, IMO. The put a lot of effort into keeping Hilton in check, and he still had 100+ yards and a long TD. And that's when we didn't have Reggie, didn't have Dwayne Allen, didn't have a running game, and again, that game was in Gillette. Focus all of that attention on Hilton in this game, and the other guys will make more plays than they did last year.

Denver lost largely on poor coaching IMO as well as execution.

 

TY did not have a TD in last year's game and of course the Pats did not have Gronk either and still rolled.

 

Denver was the best team in the league going into last week and while I agree about match ups, the Colts don't have as much to hurt the Pats with on either side of the ball as Denver.

 

And in terms of Luck, he already has 9 picks this season. He is on pace for 18. I expect a couple vs the Pats given he averages 3.5 a game when he plays them and this is a much better D than what he faced the last two years. 

[GoPats]

Again, I ask, who's going to cover TY Hilton?

 

I know you keep going back to that...

 

The obvious answer is Revis, but I don't think the Patriots will assign one guy to lock on to him. They'll mix it up. Hilton will get his catches and will likely have a big impact. But the Patriots don't play dumb football. They aren't going to let him get behind them all day long.

 

Listening to you guys, I'm baffled as to how the Colts aren't undefeated. No one in the league can cover Hilton, except maybe Vontae Davis right?  ;)

 

Butler... one of the best nickel corners in the league?

 

How did you guys ever lose 3 games??? 

[gspdx]

I would like for the Colts to try to pound the run, unless it's because they're milking the clock with a big lead! Every running play is one less pass that Luck will be making, and one less potential bomb to Hilton. It's not unlike the strategy the Patriots deployed with Manning and the Broncos. Stay in the sub, make it too tempting to hand it off, concede the run a little but try to limit the gains. 

 

Hey GoPats - don't see you here much these days.  Welcome back.  I don't post a lot myself but always liked reading what you had to say.

 

I feel the same about the Pats.  Would like to see Brady handing off a lot.  But I would also like to see the Colts look at this like a playoff game.  Take some chances on offense to keep the Pats offense on the bench.  Maybe go for it on 4th down a couple of times.  And I would love to see Pat kick an onsides kick off to himself again!

 

Seriously - if both teams show up this could be a real shooting match.  I hope to see a fun, competitive game.

[GoPats]

 

TY did not have a TD in last year's game and of course the Pats did not have Gronk either and still rolled.

 

 

Yup, two 30-plus yard passes to LaVon Brazil. Had to check it. Hilton had 4 grabs for 103, with a long of 46. 

[GoPats]

Hey GoPats - don't see you here much these days.  Welcome back.  I don't post a lot myself but always liked reading what you had to say.

 

I feel the same about the Pats.  Would like to see Brady handing off a lot.  But I would also like to see the Colts look at this like a playoff game.  Take some chances on offense to keep the Pats offense on the bench.  Maybe go for it on 4th down a couple of times.  And I would love to see Pat kick an onsides kick off to himself again!

 

Seriously - if both teams show up this could be a real shooting match.  I hope to see a fun, competitive game.

 

Hey good to see ya!

 

Colts-Pats is always a fun week, huh?  ;)  I keep forgetting that it's not until a WEEK from Sunday... 

 

Should be a really good game. Indy's offense is definitely a few notches up from where they were when these teams last played. I still think it comes down to turnovers, plain and simple. If it's a close game, I think the Colts have the edge being at home. If either team pulls ahead early, I think it would be NE. Time to see how much Luck and co. have progressed since last January! 

[Superman]

I would like for the Colts to try to pound the run, unless it's because they're milking the clock with a big lead! Every running play is one less pass that Luck will be making, and one less potential bomb to Hilton. It's not unlike the strategy the Patriots deployed with Manning and the Broncos. Stay in the sub, make it too tempting to hand it off, concede the run a little but try to limit the gains. 

 

I've seen a lot of suggested game plans and coverage match-ups in this thread. Everyone's got an opinion of who should be on who. But really, unless you've got a guy shadowing another guy, you know that's not how it works. You have to mix it up at least a little. I think putting your best corner on Gronk might be a mistake, because as good as Davis has been, he's giving up a lot of size, and Gronkowski does a terrific job of using his big frame to get good position on defenders. Plus he's spent a lot of time doing one-on-one drills with Revis covering him and Brady throwing him the ball. 

 

Part of me also thinks that, even though they've been chucking it all over the field lately, the Patriots will come out and test the Indy run D early on. You'll see it out of the 2 TE set quite a bit I think. They obviously saw that as a weakness in the playoffs last year when Blount ran for 817 yards (or whatever it was... obvious hyperbole is obvious). He's gone, of course, and Ridley's out for the year, but Vereen has been playing well and I like this kid (Jonas Gray) they have in their "big back" role at the moment. 

 

The two bolded sections strike me as ironic. I feel the same way about the Pats trying to establish the run as you do about the Colts trying to establish the run.

[Superman]

I know you keep going back to that...

 

The obvious answer is Revis, but I don't think the Patriots will assign one guy to lock on to him. They'll mix it up. Hilton will get his catches and will likely have a big impact. But the Patriots don't play dumb football. They aren't going to let him get behind them all day long.

 

Listening to you guys, I'm baffled as to how the Colts aren't undefeated. No one in the league can cover Hilton, except maybe Vontae Davis right?  ;)

 

Butler... one of the best nickel corners in the league?

 

How did you guys ever lose 3 games??? 

 

Uncoverable WRs don't guarantee wins, of course. See: Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green, etc. 

 

And yes, welcome to 2014, my friend. Butler is one of the best nickel corners in the league. 

 

As for the Hilton matchup, it's like I said to AM. Focus on Hilton, and the other guys aren't going to be Coby Fleener and LaVon Brazill and Griff Whalen. It's Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Allen, still Fleener as TE2, a better rushing attack, and a better QB. And, you're not in Gilette. So I know the Pats aren't going to just let Hilton run free, but he's going to require some very attentive secondary play, which makes things a little bit easier for us to work the rest of the field. 

 

I think it's going to be a good matchup, and I think our offense is balanced and varied enough to still be productive.

[GoPats]

The two bolded sections strike me as ironic. I feel the same way about the Pats trying to establish the run as you do about the Colts trying to establish the run.

 

T-Rich doesn't make me nervous but the other guy is a former Giant. That makes me nervous.  ;)

 

Uncoverable WRs don't guarantee wins, of course. See: Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green, etc. 

 

And yes, welcome to 2014, my friend. Butler is one of the best nickel corners in the league. 

 

As for the Hilton matchup, it's like I said to AM. Focus on Hilton, and the other guys aren't going to be Coby Fleener and LaVon Brazill and Griff Whalen. It's Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Allen, still Fleener as TE2, a better rushing attack, and a better QB. And, you're not in Gilette. So I know the Pats aren't going to just let Hilton run free, but he's going to require some very attentive secondary play, which makes things a little bit easier for us to work the rest of the field. 

 

I think it's going to be a good matchup, and I think our offense is balanced and varied enough to still be productive.

 

I hear ya, just busting your... chops. 

 

Unless Butler gets abused like a rental car a week from Sunday you can rub it in. I know guys can sometimes turn it around in new places but when the Patriots finally cut him loose I did a little dance. I'm sure the things that the Patriots know about him and his tendencies will help.