Pats/Denver thread - snow in forecast (merge)

[Blue Horseshoe]

Weather Channel has updated their prediction.

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail4/USMA0146

High of 44, 40% chance of precipitation

AM Rain/Snow/Wind (21 MPH NNW)

 

If that wind dies down by game time the conditions could be very reasonable

[Shane Bond]

Then we'll beat them at home in San Diego and it's all good 

Not after all the injuries. Ryan Mathews is a big loss.

 

Denver run defense is too good. We saw what happend to Oliver.

[amfootball]

Weather Channel has updated their prediction.

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail4/USMA0146

High of 44, 40% chance of precipitation

AM Rain/Snow/Wind (21 MPH NNW)

 

If that wind dies down by game time the conditions could be very reasonable

Game time is 4:25. It will be close to freezing at kick-off. That high of 44 will be at noon time. There is an 80 percent chance of precipitation - 40 percent chance it will be snow as the temp could range from near freezing to just above. My guess is it a wintry mix of snow/sleet with bad field conditions. It be cold for sure and windy. We have had a ton of wind this fall and at Gillette there are a ton of gusts.

[jvan1973]

Game time is 4:25. It will be close to freezing at kick-off. That high of 44 will be at noon time. There is an 80 percent chance of precipitation - 40 percent chance it will be snow as the temp could range from near freezing to just above. My guess is it a wintry mix of snow/sleet with bad field conditions. It be cold for sure and windy. We have had a ton of wind this fall and at Gillette there are a ton of gusts.

Where did you get your degree on meteorology?

[amfootball]

Where did you get your degree on meteorology?

Boston.

[jvan1973]

Boston.

sure thing

[amfootball]

sure thing

Been here all my life. 40 years. Believe me. I know Boston weather especially as it relates to sporting events given I have sat out in them. Right now we have this warm front. Today is 73 and balmy. Tomorrow the cold front comes in. Thankfully we are looking at a decent Halloween but it will be cold. Last Friday we had a monsoon. The fall can be funny here. Sometimes we get gorgeous ones where it is dry and mild and others are unsettled like this season. We had an unusually mild August. It was actually chilly at night. Sept was very warm more like August should have been and now October has been a beast. I am hoping we don't get the same time of winter we did last year but it is shaping up that way. This weekend is going to be nasty with Sunday the worse of the two days. The late start will mean colder conditions and more rain/sleet/snow. But we will see if anything changes in the next couple of days as Boston weather can literally change every 10 minutes. Sunday could potentially end up being nice and dry or a blizzard. It is that extreme here.

[Blue Horseshoe]

Game time is 4:25. It will be close to freezing at kick-off. That high of 44 will be at noon time. There is an 80 percent chance of precipitation - 40 percent chance it will be snow as the temp could range from near freezing to just above. My guess is it a wintry mix of snow/sleet with bad field conditions. It be cold for sure and windy. We have had a ton of wind this fall and at Gillette there are a ton of gusts.

 

Weather Underground predicts:

40 degrees, 15mph, 5% chance of precip at 4:25

35 degrees, 13mph, 3% chance of precip at 8:00

[GoPats]

Talib will be on Gronk, Chris Harris will be on Edelman and Roby will be on Lafell, I can almost see this from a mile. Remember Talib vs Jimmy Graham? If JDR has half the brain that Belichick has, that is what he will do. Brady will go after Roby, yes but being an outside wideout, routes might take longer to form and that is where the pass rush of Miller and Ware will become relevant.

 

Tim Wright, because of his run blocking not up to snuff does not see many snaps unless the Pats fall behind or they use him more in red zone looks. He can be a matchup issue in which case they will ask T.J.Ward or Rahim Moore to pick him up.

 

But in the base nickel, the bolded stuff above makes the most sense for the Broncos' D.

 

I read a conflicting report on the Talib/Gronk matchup. Yes, BB had him on Jimmy Graham in 2013. But Gronk is not Jimmy Graham. Different types of players, and Gronk is stronger and far more physical. Talib shut Graham down by manhandling him, but he won't be able to do that with Gronk. 

 

You're correct about Wright... until he can improve his blocking, having him on the field in a 2TE set is too much of a "tell" to the defense that it's a pass play. But I expect them to be playing the matchups they get regardless, so it's hard to predict who's going to get the ball.

 

I think Vereen is going to get a lot of touches, especially if the weather is lousy. I also think Edelman is going to have a good game. The Broncos will limit Gronk and LaFell, or at least they should. Brady was 20/20 on targets to those two guys last week.

 

Can't wait for this one. It's not an elimination game or anything but it will have a huge impact on how the playoffs shake out. It always does!

[GoPats]

sure thing

 

Weather is to us what corn is to you guys.  ;)

 

We're all amateur meteorologists. As AM pointed out, whatever the forecast says today, it could be rainy and cold, snowy and cold, or even sunny and mild on Sunday! Forecasts don't mean a lot until you're 2/3 days out. 

[GoPats]

I figured this would be an even line. If home-field is worth 3, then I guess the Broncos would be favored by 6 on a neutral field, and nine at home!

 

Which is exactly what I want... the Patriots tend to do better as underdogs.

[chad72]

CBS = 4:35 EST

60% chance of rain or light snow,....Upper 30s for a late afternoon start

The annual AARP special..the 16th meeting of old timers Peyton Manning and Tom Brady..

Pivotal game of the AFC season. A Denver will puts them 2 games up on the entire AFC with 8 games left.

All kinds of primo matchups including NE's Darelle Revis against Denver's Demariyus Thomas

A team quarterbacked by Manning or Brady has won eight of the last 13 AFC titles.

With the ether the way it is....take NE and the points. But do it now. that spread might narrow as the week goes on.

Over-under is 55 and that may lower as well

 

OUM, I agree. I think the Pats win by 4 or more.

[supremecoltsfan300]

Denver win by 7 points.

[chad72]

I read a conflicting report on the Talib/Gronk matchup. Yes, BB had him on Jimmy Graham in 2013. But Gronk is not Jimmy Graham. Different types of players, and Gronk is stronger and far more physical. Talib shut Graham down by manhandling him, but he won't be able to do that with Gronk. 

 

You're correct about Wright... until he can improve his blocking, having him on the field in a 2TE set is too much of a "tell" to the defense that it's a pass play. But I expect them to be playing the matchups they get regardless, so it's hard to predict who's going to get the ball.

 

I think Vereen is going to get a lot of touches, especially if the weather is lousy. I also think Edelman is going to have a good game. The Broncos will limit Gronk and LaFell, or at least they should. Brady was 20/20 on targets to those two guys last week.

 

Can't wait for this one. It's not an elimination game or anything but it will have a huge impact on how the playoffs shake out. It always does!

 

It was the Steelers game in 2011 that the Steelers won 25-17 by putting Polamalu on Gronk. Gronk is awesome but when you have a pass rush to go with your stellar secondary, Gronk's looks can be limited.

[thedude]

I don't really care, but if I had to pick..... The Patriots by six points. I think the Pats defense will rattle Manning and everyone knows how he responds to that.

[Moose Of Woe]

I predict there will be oxygen.

[amfootball]

I read a conflicting report on the Talib/Gronk matchup. Yes, BB had him on Jimmy Graham in 2013. But Gronk is not Jimmy Graham. Different types of players, and Gronk is stronger and far more physical. Talib shut Graham down by manhandling him, but he won't be able to do that with Gronk. 

 

You're correct about Wright... until he can improve his blocking, having him on the field in a 2TE set is too much of a "tell" to the defense that it's a pass play. But I expect them to be playing the matchups they get regardless, so it's hard to predict who's going to get the ball.

 

I think Vereen is going to get a lot of touches, especially if the weather is lousy. I also think Edelman is going to have a good game. The Broncos will limit Gronk and LaFell, or at least they should. Brady was 20/20 on targets to those two guys last week.

 

Can't wait for this one. It's not an elimination game or anything but it will have a huge impact on how the playoffs shake out. It always does!

I think Talib may get Lafelle and Harris gets Endelman. Tim Wright could have a nice game along with Amendola if he is on his game. Like Denver, we have a lot of bodies to cover but I would imagine we will also take the run if Denver is in a lot of sub packages. I expect Manning to do the same vs us.

[amfootball]

On sports radio here yesterday, they said every time the Pats have been a home under dog since 2001 which has not been often, they have covered or most of the time won the game outright. So being a home dog is a good thing historically for the Pats.

 

3 seems high to me. I would have thought 1 or 2. It may come down especially if the forecast gets worse before Sunday.

[amfootball]

It was the Steelers game in 2011 that the Steelers won 25-17 by putting Polamalu on Gronk. Gronk is awesome but when you have a pass rush to go with your stellar secondary, Gronk's looks can be limited.

He had just shy of a 100 yards that game. The story of that game was more the ToP. Steelers had it for 39 minutes and Ben just threw all over the horrific Pats secondary that had no business going to the SB that year. As with everything, the defense can help the offense. Hopefully our defense is up to the task is this is the best O they will face all year. A great litmus test.

[supremecoltsfan300]

Just rewatched their game from last year in the playoffs.  Brady had all day to throw and their offense still did nothing till garbage time.  I thought Brady had to be under pressure for most of the game since they didn't score much, but that o-line manhandled the Broncos D-line.  I would think the Broncos will get significantly more pressure on Brady this time around. The coverage guys have improved across the board for the Broncos too.  It will all come down to Gronk imo.  If Marshall/Irving/Ward can do a good job on Gronk, Pats lose by at least 10.  If Gronk is allowed to roam free, it will be a tight game.

[pgt_rob]

Broncos win by 10.

 

[Shane Bond]

Denver wins. Not even close.

[dgambill]

Denver wins. Not even close.

What makes you think this? I know you are a big Bronco fan and I think they have the better team on a neutral field but with the weather, their pass defense playing well, and Brady and that offense clicking do you not think it will be a good game?

[Gabriel Alexander Morillo]

Manning will be embarrassed in NE. That's my prediction. 20 point Patriots win. Imo

[Shane Bond]

What makes you think this? I know you are a big Bronco fan and I think they have the better team on a neutral field but with the weather, their pass defense playing well, and Brady and that offense clicking do you not think it will be a good game?

Just for the record, i am a Peyton Manning fan.

 

Denver defense is significantly better than last year. Denver offense is significantly better too. They don't have the soft butterfinger Decker. Emmanuel Sanders will be the X factor. No one will be able to cover him. Welker will be fired up to redeem.

 

Pats pass defense?. Are you judging them based on their performance against Bears, Raiders and Jets?.

[dgambill]

Just for the record, i am a Peyton Manning fan.

 

Denver defense is significantly better than last year. Denver offense is significantly better too. They don't have the soft butterfinger Decker. Emmanuel Sanders will be the X factor. No one will be able to cover him. Welker will be fired up to redeem.

 

Pats pass defense?. Are you judging them based on their performance against Bears, Raiders and Jets?.

All season they've been very good. They match up well against Denver. Revis on Thomas. Browner on the other Thomas. The smaller corners on Sanders and Welker. They won't have to defend for long too with the weather making throws downfield difficult. I agree Denver has a better (team) this year but NE beat them last year at home....Gronk is healthier than he has ever been. Lafell looks like the deep threat they have been missing...their new TE is starting to fit into this offense....and we haven't even mentioned the uncoverable Edelman....NE has improved too. I think its a back and forth game....and very physical. I think the odds makers are on crack....that game is a push.

[GoPats]

It was the Steelers game in 2011 that the Steelers won 25-17 by putting Polamalu on Gronk. Gronk is awesome but when you have a pass rush to go with your stellar secondary, Gronk's looks can be limited.

 

It's funny but I remember that game really well because we had a bad storm, lost power, and I was sitting listening to that game on a battery powered radio in an ice cold house, lol...

 

I don't remember Gronk's performance specifically, but you know your stuff so I'll take your word for it. Talib is actually a little bigger than Polamalu if I recall right, but I still think Gronk would hold a significant strength advantage there (to the tune of about 60 pounds). 

[Shane Bond]

All season they've been very good. They match up well against Denver. Revis on Thomas. Browner on the other Thomas. The smaller corners on Sanders and Welker. They won't have to defend for long too with the weather making throws downfield difficult. I agree Denver has a better (team) this year but NE beat them last year at home....Gronk is healthier than he has ever been. Lafell looks like the deep threat they have been missing...their new TE is starting to fit into this offense....and we haven't even mentioned the uncoverable Edelman....NE has improved too. I think its a back and forth game....and very physical. I think the odds makers are on crack....that game is a push.

I hope NE doesnt get carried away after their performance with Bears. That game is truly not how we measure NE.

 

Bears really were bad in all phases.

[Girlzarefanstoo]

Not after all the injuries. Ryan Mathews is a big loss.

 

Denver run defense is too good. We saw what happend to Oliver.

You don't realize that Ryan Mathews is due back in the next game or two.  Many of our injured should start returning.  IF we can survive with our 2s and 3s we're going to be deep and strong.  

[amfootball]

I hope NE doesnt get carried away after their performance with Bears. That game is truly not how we measure NE.

 

Bears really were bad in all phases.

That is the beauty of the Pats. They don't get carried away which is why they were able to rebound from getting blown out by KC and blow out Cincy the following week. Much of their success from the past 13 years can be attributed to them never getting too high or too low. Might be Belichick's best coaching quality.

 

In terms of the Bears game, the big take away was how good the Pats secondary looked vs one of the best receiving corps/offenses in the league. The Pats secondary is rated number one vs the pass so it is not a mirage and they will need that unit to perform well to have a chance. A little pressure up front wouldn't hurt either.

 

Make no mistake, this Denver team IS better than the Pats on both sides of the ball. But that was also true last year and the Pats came back from 24 down at half. I expect a competitive game from start to finish especially if the conditions are poor.

[sweetsurrender]

That is the beauty of the Pats. They don't get carried away which is why they were able to rebound from getting blown out by KC and blow out Cincy the following week. Much of their success from the past 13 years can be attributed to them never getting too high or too low. Might be Belichick's best coaching quality.

 

In terms of the Bears game, the big take away was how good the Pats secondary looked vs one of the best receiving corps/offenses in the league. The Pats secondary is rated number one vs the pass so it is not a mirage and they will need that unit to perform well to have a chance. A little pressure up front wouldn't hurt either.

 

Make no mistake, this Denver team IS better than the Pats on both sides of the ball. But that was also true last year and the Pats came back from 24 down at half. I expect a competitive game from start to finish especially if the conditions are poor.

That Denver defense can be had. Luck torched them in the second half. I fully expect Brady to move the ball on them.

[sweetsurrender]

I hope NE doesnt get carried away after their performance with Bears. That game is truly not how we measure NE.

 

Bears really were bad in all phases.

Them being bad in all phases had more to do with how well NE played them. This game is perfect timing for the Pats to get Denver. O is firing on all cylinders and the defense is playing as a unit.

[ram29jackson]

Denver doesn't need to win this game to still end up at home in the Conference championship because the Patriots will still lose one or 2 more games then the Broncos this season...and the Pats aren't getting to that game anyway.

  But  the Broncos might win a relatively close one for the afternoon crowd

[Moose Of Woe]

The Pats secondary is rated number one vs the pass so it is not a mirage...

 

I remember several seasons when Indy had a "great" passing defense. Teams marched up and down the field over us on the ground,  so the passing numbers were highly skewed. Although we certainly have had good DE's (and still have Mathis), for a lot of years we had no push up the middle so it mitigated our pass rush when it MATTERED against good QB's in the playoffs. Many of our DB's couldn't intercept a football hitting them right in the numbers.

 

It's hard to judge a defense based on just passing or running defense. Teams that are ranked high at both are the truly good defenses. I'm not saying by any stretch that the Pats have a terrible passing defense, just that it may not be all it's cracked up to be. Particularly when some teams have had their way on the ground and the list of QB's they've played are the following "juggernauts":

 

Ryan Tannehill (Up and down)

Matt Cassel (Awful)

Whoever the Raiders have (Awful)

Alex Smith (By far the best on this list and the only remotely good QB. NE got crushed)

Andy Dalton (Awful)

EJ Manuel (Awful)

Geno Smith (Below awful - worst in the league.)

Jay Cutler (Awful)

 

 

That being said, if NE limits the likes of Peyton, RODGAHS, Rivers then we'll have something to talk about.

[oldunclemark]

Denver doesn't need to win this game to still end up at home in the Conference championship because the Patriots will still lose one or 2 more games then the Broncos this season...and the Pats aren't getting to that game anyway.

  But  the Broncos might win a relatively close one for the afternoon crowd

Denver does need this win because they still have road games at Cincy, SD and KC

...and explain who's going to beat the Pats in the playoffs other than Denver..

[Moose Of Woe]

Denver does need this win because they still have road games at Cincy, SD and KC

...and explain who's going to beat the Pats in the playoffs other than Denver..

It's going to be interesting watching us try to cover Gronk in a few weeks. Hope the pass rush actually shows up or it's going to be a long night. At least our offense can keep us in it.

[oldunclemark]

On sports radio here yesterday, they said every time the Pats have been a home under dog since 2001 which has not been often, they have covered or most of the time won the game outright. So being a home dog is a good thing historically for the Pats.

 

3 seems high to me. I would have thought 1 or 2. It may come down especially if the forecast gets worse before Sunday.

I see Revis on Demariyus Thomas..and maybe even Brandon Browner on Julius Thomas

He was guardiong martellus Benet of the Bears last week...

Sanders may be neutralized by a wet field and high winds.

In NE, the Patriots should be favored or its an even game. Belichik is gong to dare the Broncos to run the ball. You know how he does Peyton.

I think the 'under' is the best bet

[oldunclemark]

That Denver defense can be had. Luck torched them in the second half. I fully expect Brady to move the ball on them.

\

Denver's 'D' is better than it was opening night but, of course, Brady will move them.

...and the hurry-up the pats run is hard to handle

[ram29jackson]

Denver does need this win because they still have road games at Cincy, SD and KC

...and explain who's going to beat the Pats in the playoffs other than Denver..

 

you don't seem to understand the predetermined concept LOL its Denvers year no matter what.

 

explain to me how a team can be that good for 14 years and you dont get suspicious ? Nope, say bye bye to the Pats this year as they lose early in the playoffs.

[oldunclemark]

you don't seem to understand the predetermined concept LOL its Denvers year no matter what.

 

explain to me how a team can be that good for 14 years and you dont get suspicious ? Nope, say bye bye to the Pats this year as they lose early in the playoffs.

gonna be a fun week, I see