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We Draft Luck, Now What?


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OK so 2012 rolls around, NFL draft kicks up, Colts with the #1 overall pick take Stanford QB Andrew Luck.

Now what? Now we are a team with two elite QB's and I'd be willing to bet Neither of them are leaving, so for the sake of this topic lets assume we keep both Luck and Manning, Painter is history and so is Orvlosky.

Does anyone see any glimmer of hope to fix this defense? What about aging weapons on offense? This is Clark's 2nd season ending injury in a row, Wayne isn't what he use to be, and Mathis is up for a huge pay raise.

What do we do now? How do we fix this defense without making any huge splashes in FA (because I'm sure the Colts won't do it based purely upon Philly's season)

I'd like to hear some ideas of what comes next and how we resolve the gaping holes on both Defense and Offense.

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I think leading up to the draft, we should see what teams will be willing to overpay for him. Almost a Herchell Walker type of deal where we can reload the talent on this team.

Im willing to bet Washington would give up a ton to get Luck. We could get back OLB Brian Orakpo and multiple draft picks in the deal and then go after someone like Matt Kalil or Morris Claiborne.

Best option right there!

But if we keep Luck and Manning, we should spend the majority of our remaining draft picks on defense. Guys like Brandon Thompson, Dontari Poe, Mark Barron, Casey Hayward, Sean Spence are all guys on defense I want for this team.

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Now the colts continue to have the worst defense in the league mixed with little talent on the offense that is covered up by good QB play. We continue to draft at the bottom of the first and have officially blown our chance to rebuild the team in 2 years or less. But hey at least we have the next best QB sitting on the bench watching the best QB take us to playoffs just to watch the defense promptly getting us out of the playoffs. And when this potential next Manning finally does get the nod, then what? we still have one of the worst teams in the league so now we have to just hope and pray that he really is as good as Manning so we can win some games? nah ill pass.

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OK so 2012 rolls around, NFL draft kicks up, Colts with the #1 overall pick take Stanford QB Andrew Luck.

Now what? Now we are a team with two elite QB's and I'd be willing to bet Neither of them are leaving, so for the sake of this topic lets assume we keep both Luck and Manning, Painter is history and so is Orvlosky.

Does anyone see any glimmer of hope to fix this defense? What about aging weapons on offense? This is Clark's 2nd season ending injury in a row, Wayne isn't what he use to be, and Mathis is up for a huge pay raise.

What do we do now? How do we fix this defense without making any huge splashes in FA (because I'm sure the Colts won't do it based purely upon Philly's season)

I'd like to hear some ideas of what comes next and how we resolve the gaping holes on both Defense and Offense.

Well, let's not forget that a very good argument can be made that if Peyton were playing this year, we would be having a fairly good season so far, as it has been stated numerous times how Peyton has covered up deficiencies etc....

The defense obviously cannot be graded based on what we are seeing this year. It's unfair to give a grade to the defense when the offense cannot stay on the field. I make the argument that our defense will not be so bad next year.

1. With Bullit back healthy next year alongside Bethea, we would have a formidable group of safeties. Not great, but good enough to win, as we have in the past with these two safeties.

2. With Bracket back next year, we would have a solid group of LB's, Angerer, Bracket, Conner and Wheeler for depth.

3. Our D-line with Nevis is starting to take shape. We can add additonal D-linemen in the draft. We wouldn't have addressed this in the first round anyway, so drafting Luck would not prohibit this.

4. Freeney and Mathis are still very good and will continue to be for just a few more years. We can address pass rushers in this draft or the next depending on the available talent.

5. We have Jerraud Powers who is a good CB. We definitely need to address CB as a major need.

On offense, we have a group of young receivers that are up and coming. Garcon is showing that he is very capable. Austin Collie, although not having a great year, we know what he is capable of doing with Manning. And yes, Dallas has been hurt, but I have been impressed with his back-up Tamme. Wayne is a concern. I think that he can still play, but if he demands a big payout, then we mayhave to draft his replacement. Overall, we have 7 draft picks and have enough picks, if we do end up drafting Luck, to still address the team's needs.

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We let him watch and play behind PM for the next 3 to 4 years, then once PM retires Luck takes over in a smooth transition just like Rodgers. Also, we give him a ton of playing time in the preseason, like Manning gets the first 2 or 3 possesions, then Luck gets the next 2 quarters. If we prepare him properly, he could end up being better than Rodgers.

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Well, let's not forget that a very good argument can be made that if Peyton were playing this year, we would be having a fairly good season so far, as it has been stated numerous times how Peyton has covered up deficiencies etc....

Undoubtedly. However that has only been good enough for us to win the big game one time. If Peyton didn't have to make up for deficiencies just imagine how many rings we'd have.

Is Manning with the D/O we have now good enough to win the SB?

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We let him watch and play behind PM for the next 3 to 4 years, then once PM retires Luck takes over in a smooth transition just like Rodgers. Also, we give him a ton of playing time in the preseason, like Manning gets the first 2 or 3 possesions, then Luck gets the next 2 quarters. If we prepare him properly, he could end up being better than Rodgers.

Seeing as how his contract will likely be 4 years I think 2-3 years behind Manning is more realistic.

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It all depends on Mannings health!

1. If he is back at 100% health and can play for 3-4 more years we don't need to draft Luck!

2. If Manning has to retire drafting Luck is a no brainer.

3. If Manning is back, but not at 100% and it's uncertain if he will ever be the play at the same level again and he has only 1-2 years left. drafting Luck would be wise even if he sits 1-2 years.

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Now I have heard some good points made on here and then I have heard some not so good points made. This team has far too many holes on it, and it doesn’t help to have an incompetent coaching staff and front office, who do not know how to evaluate talent, make irrational decisions because of their egos’, and over pay vastly for their own, when their own aren’t worth the money they are given. If Manning is healthy and ready to play, you absolutely trade the Luck pick and get a bounty for him, players to address area of need, and many many draft picks. Just because Rodgers sat under Favre and was successful when his number was called, doesn’t mean the Manning to Luck transition is going to be the same. Look at Brady being a late round pick and coming in and being a great quarterback in the league, there is talent that exists outside of number one picks! Green Bay has depth upon depth of real talent, in my opinion they are one of the best run franchises in football, with the decisions they make regarding their team. Indy is not on that level unfortunately, so Luck if drafted, would have the same holes and problems that Manning has had his entire career, again Luck is no Manning, “this offense ain’t Vanilla man.” Clarke and Addai are over rated and can’t stay healthy, each have played one full season, yet they both get top money. Carter and Brown have been serviceable in Addai’s place, Tamme has had the same production in one game to Clarke’s best game stat wise this season. With all these aging players and overpaid contracts, the wisest decision would be to trade the Luck pick no matter what, even if Manning isn’t 100 percent healthy. The Colts could take a quarterback #2 overall i.e. Barkley, and while Manning was recovering he could teach Barkley. Any rookie QB brought in with this current team is going to struggle! The holes need to be addressed, by trading down one spot or even a few spots, you can acquire picks and players to fill the holes, and still draft a QB in the first round capable of becoming a star NFL QB, a lot of talent exists at the position coming out of college NOT NAMED LUCK!

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The defense obviously cannot be graded based on what we are seeing this year. It's unfair to give a grade to the defense when the offense cannot stay on the field. I make the argument that our defense will not be so bad next year.

There are many teams in the NFL with lack luster offenses and great defenses, Ravens, Jets, 49ers, Bears, all of which produce and are the big reason why their teams win. The Colts defense is nothing special even when they are barely on the field, so I am curious what you are getting at? Why are they going to be better next year, with the current players on D?

1. With Bullit back healthy next year alongside Bethea, we would have a formidable group of safeties. Not great, but good enough to win, as we have in the past with these two safeties.

Bullitt is a back-up safety at best, he has no impact when given his opportunites and he is no starting caliber safety!

2. With Bracket back next year, we would have a solid group of LB's, Angerer, Bracket, Conner and Wheeler for depth.

Brackett has to go, he is old, overpaid, and has been over rated by many fans his whole career. This is still an area of weakness for the Colts.

3. Our D-line with Nevis is starting to take shape. We can add additonal D-linemen in the draft. We wouldn't have addressed this in the first round anyway, so drafting Luck would not prohibit this.

The D-Line is still weak there is no interior pressure and no ability to stop the run. Nevis is the only player who has any value on the D-Line, Mookie is a backup tackle at best on any other NFL team.

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Without wholesale changes don't expect much out of Andy.

Asking him to replace Manning, and play better than Manning in the same system, structured the same way is too much to ask from anyone.

Requiring anybody to outplay Manning is insane. OTOH, transitioning the offense toward another that has similar traits may not be so hard. I read this today-

"Luck calls his own plays.

Stanford typically signals in three plays from the sideline. Luck has the option to run the first play in the progression or switch to one of the other two. His decisions are always based on how the defense is aligned when Stanford gets to the line of scrimmage.

When asked how often Luck changes out of passing plays and into running plays -- thus reducing his opportunity to accumulate passing yards and touchdowns -- Shaw declined to answer.

"It's too complicated to put a percentage on," he said. "But when he gets us into a run, it's generally successful.

"The guy runs the game like nobody else in college football."

Rodgers learned a system from the sidelines. Luck can as well.

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The defense obviously cannot be graded based on what we are seeing this year. It's unfair to give a grade to the defense when the offense cannot stay on the field. I make the argument that our defense will not be so bad next year.

There are many teams in the NFL with lack luster offenses and great defenses, Ravens, Jets, 49ers, Bears, all of which produce and are the big reason why their teams win. The Colts defense is nothing special even when they are barely on the field, so I am curious what you are getting at? Why are they going to be better next year, with the current players on D?

The Ravens,49ers, Jets, and Bears also have a better offense than the Colts do this year. I agree that all of the teams that you have mentioned have much better defenses than our team. The Colts defense has always been below average, and I am not at all saying that I am satisfied with how they've performed. What I am getting at is that even with the poor defense that we've had, we've consistently been a good team, and with a few good draft picks, we can address some of our weaknesses at DB, DL, and safety.

1. With Bullit back healthy next year alongside Bethea, we would have a formidable group of safeties. Not great, but good enough to win, as we have in the past with these two safeties.

Bullitt is a back-up safety at best, he has no impact when given his opportunites and he is no starting caliber safety!

Bullitt is serviceable and we could either choose to address the safety positon this year in the draft or next year.

2. With Bracket back next year, we would have a solid group of LB's, Angerer, Bracket, Conner and Wheeler for depth.

Brackett has to go, he is old, overpaid, and has been over rated by many fans his whole career. This is still an area of weakness for the Colts.

There's no trade value in Bracket, so he stays. If he can't perform like he has in the past, he doesn't start. Our LB's are one of the bright spots in this year's defense, so we do not necessarily have to make any changes, but we could choose to upgrade if given the opportunity.

3. Our D-line with Nevis is starting to take shape. We can add additonal D-linemen in the draft. We wouldn't have addressed this in the first round anyway, so drafting Luck would not prohibit this.

The D-Line is still weak there is no interior pressure and no ability to stop the run. Nevis is the only player who has any value on the D-Line, Mookie is a backup tackle at best on any other NFL team.

As I mentioned, we could add additional D-Linemen with our remaining 6 picks.

So if we draft Luck with our first pick, we can address either CB, DL, OL, safety, receiver with our remaining picks. Also, keep in mind that Luck will be with the Colts for many years and will have more opportunities to surround him with a talented team.

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We let him watch and play behind PM for the next 3 to 4 years, then once PM retires Luck takes over in a smooth transition just like Rodgers. Also, we give him a ton of playing time in the preseason, like Manning gets the first 2 or 3 possesions, then Luck gets the next 2 quarters. If we prepare him properly, he could end up being better than Rodgers.

Rodgers wasn't a smooth transition, and didn't cost the Packers any money. He also needed the time to develop, so it was a perfect situation for them.

That team in Green Bay has more to do with the Super Bowl they currently hold than does Rodgers. A 38 year old Favre almost got there with less of a team.

This team requires QB play far above Rodgers or Favre, and Luck will likely never be as capable as either. He is nothing without a power running game, and it would take five years to build something like he's got in Stanford. It's not worth forfeiting the remainder of Manning's career for some disillusioned Rodgers fantasy that isn't really what people are making it out to be. If Rodgers can keep it up for 8 or 9 years, then I will buy it. As for Luck, he's just another good college prospect. He is not the savior, or even the future of this franchise. Luck would sit for three years, then we would regress for another three, and then we might have something in place for him.

Or he will go to a team that can use him now.

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I'm all for trading that 1st overall for nonsense load of picks (+possible players).

Does anyone know Cam Newtons cap hit? I know his contract value, but 75% of it is a signing bonus as the deal is fully guaranteed due to the new rookie wage scale. Could Luck possibly sit behind Manning without hurting the team salary cap wise?

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Newton’s contract was $22 million over four years, I don’t know how that would compare with Luck’s but, it’s far too much money invested in the QB position when there are serious holes and needs on this team, where that money could be better spent. Luck would bring an enormous volume of picks possibly a player or two. Look what Oakland gave up for Palmer and look at what Atlanta gave up for Julio Jones the 6th overall pick. The Colts would surely get an abundance of picks, this year, next, and maybe even the year after! And for the Luck hype maybe a player who could help fill a need. There is already an article about what Miami would pursue Luck or Manning whomever the Colts are going to part ways with, and they would be aggressive in doing so. Move down one slot or two with Miami get a boat load of picks, and possibly CB Vonte Davis, or NT Paul Soliai.

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Newton’s contract was $22 million over four years, I don’t know how that would compare with Luck’s but, it’s far too much money invested in the QB position when there are serious holes and needs on this team, where that money could be better spent. Luck would bring an enormous volume of picks possibly a player or two. Look what Oakland gave up for Palmer and look at what Atlanta gave up for Julio Jones the 6th overall pick. The Colts would surely get an abundance of picks, this year, next, and maybe even the year after! And for the Luck hype maybe a player who could help fill a need. There is already an article about what Miami would pursue Luck or Manning whomever the Colts are going to part ways with, and they would be aggressive in doing so. Move down one slot or two with Miami get a boat load of picks, and possibly CB Vonte Davis, or NT Paul Soliai.

Luck's contract with the new rookie salary cap deal is the only reason we can draft Luck at half-price and keep both him and Manning. We are in a very rare position and fortunate to be. Every other team is jealous we have both and have the option for continuing our future dominance. Ask Miami how long its taken to get another franchise QB since Marino.

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OK so 2012 rolls around, NFL draft kicks up, Colts with the #1 overall pick take Stanford QB Andrew Luck.

Now what? Now we are a team with two elite QB's and I'd be willing to bet Neither of them are leaving, so for the sake of this topic lets assume we keep both Luck and Manning, Painter is history and so is Orvlosky.

Does anyone see any glimmer of hope to fix this defense? What about aging weapons on offense? This is Clark's 2nd season ending injury in a row, Wayne isn't what he use to be, and Mathis is up for a huge pay raise.

What do we do now? How do we fix this defense without making any huge splashes in FA (because I'm sure the Colts won't do it based purely upon Philly's season)

I'd like to hear some ideas of what comes next and how we resolve the gaping holes on both Defense and Offense.

Ummm, we use the first pick of every OTHER round to fill holes and add a few stop gaps trough free agency, and UDFA's.
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Nobody will convince me Luck is the right move for the Colts in this year's upcoming draft, unless Manning's health will keep him from being on the field.

You and I dont have to be the ones who are convinced. It the Cats down at the 56th street complex that have to be convinced. What we think is irrelevant outside of this forum.

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The nice thing is that the positions where we are weaker (DT, OG, S) are positions that aren't typically drafted until after the first round unless there's an elite-level player. We can fill our holes with quality with our 2nd-5th round picks (which are much closer to the low 1st-4th round picks we've been used to the past few years than they are our 2nd-5th round picks).

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Every Luck fan on here insists that it's Andrew Luck who will be the answer, and that's the way it is. You're right it doesn't matter what we the fans think its about the front office. Those of us opposing Luck all say we expect Manning to be back and how the Luck pick can fix the Colts short term and long term. The Luck faithful insist that Luck is a sure next great thing, there is no talent outside of him, and that the Colts can fill needs later in the draft and with UDFA. Hasn't that been the problem with the Colts and why the team is 0-16, the UDFA and fill holes later in the draft answer has not been working!

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Every Luck fan on here insists that it's Andrew Luck who will be the answer, and that's the way it is. You're right it doesn't matter what we the fans think its about the front office. Those of us opposing Luck all say we expect Manning to be back and how the Luck pick can fix the Colts short term and long term. The Luck faithful insist that Luck is a sure next great thing, there is no talent outside of him, and that the Colts can fill needs later in the draft and with UDFA. Hasn't that been the problem with the Colts and why the team is 0-16, the UDFA and fill holes later in the draft answer has not been working!

I think is good to have opposing opinions on the matter. It helps get all the facts out there. I was only merely stating that both our opinions werent the relevant ones to the team. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
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And then have nothing behind them, and continue on the same path they are currently headed! The most expensive contracts for players and rookies in general are at the QB position, where is the extra money going to come from to keep Manning, pay Luck to sit for multiple years, and then resign their own and try to bring in some other free agents???

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And then have nothing behind them, and continue on the same path they are currently headed! The most expensive contracts for players and rookies in general are at the QB position, where is the extra money going to come from to keep Manning, pay Luck to sit for multiple years, and then resign their own and try to bring in some other free agents???

The Colts will have lots of Cap room, and Irsay has already stated ticket prices are staying the same. They will have lots of money to do whatever they need to.

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Where is this extra cap room coming from? What players aren't coming back, who's contracts are getting re-worked? Maybe you need to fill out my if you were the GM thread, so I can understand your thought process.

I am paraphrasing what I heard on the JMV show. I dont have the raw data. It was explained that the Colts could make major Free agent moves in the offseason if necessary, even if they pick up Peyton's Guaranteed money before the deadline. In the new Collective Bargaining agreement, a rookie wage scale was created to keep them from making extravagant contracts right out of the gate. http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2011-07-26/new-nfl-rookie-pay-scale-could-strengthen-college-game

http://forums.traditionsportsonline.com/threads/indianapolis-colts-2012-team-management.66565/

Here are a few "sources" if you will for what the colts may have in cap space, and an explanation of that rookie wage scale, that went into effect just in time if they do want to grab Luck.

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I understand the new rookie wage scale makes players more affordable, but you are still paying Luck to sit on the bench for years, and have other free agents on the Colts after this season, Garcon, Wayne, Saturday, Mathis, just to name some of the notable players. Wayne and Mathis are going to want big long term contracts, especially Mathis, much bigger than the affordable one he has now! Where is all this cap room coming from?

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I understand the new rookie wage scale makes players more affordable, but you are still paying Luck to sit on the bench for years, and have other free agents on the Colts after this season, Garcon, Wayne, Saturday, Mathis, just to name some of the notable players. Wayne and Mathis are going to want big long term contracts, especially Mathis, much bigger than the affordable one he has now! Where is all this cap room coming from?

You cant keep Wayne AND Mathis, Pure and Simple IMO. Besides, this year seems to indicate a severe drop off for Mathis, possibly making him expendable. Watch how the Patriots handle business. When a player that is on the roster(no matter the tenure or past talent) starts to impede their ability to draft and sign, they cut them loose. Hard decisions have to be made by the front office.

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And then have nothing behind them, and continue on the same path they are currently headed! The most expensive contracts for players and rookies in general are at the QB position, where is the extra money going to come from to keep Manning, pay Luck to sit for multiple years, and then resign their own and try to bring in some other free agents???

It took us 10 years to get in this mess, it's not gonna take us 1 to get out of it. We basically have the hand we are dealt and can not change cards. We have to play this situation to best of our ability until Peyton is gone.

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Exactlly! Which means trading the Luck pick, because Peyton isn't going anywhere!

You don't get it. One draft is not going to fix this team. Most of realistic people on this board understand in order for Peyton to get back to the SB, it is going to take more than one year. Let me point this out, I agree that trading pick is also a good option, both decisions are good. But I do not agree with people that want to trade pick because they think it will put Peyton back into SB contention. It will not. This team needs a lot of cleaning up and fixing. Peyton will help us with that but keyword, help. He alone will nto fix this team. It is too much for one good draft and Peyton to fix this team.

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No you don't get it, cause I clearly know my viewpoint and get it! My opinion is that it would be much wiser to trade the Luck selection, because it would bring a far greater bounty to the Colts than Manning be traded. If Manning is 100% healthy (Thanks Xfiles) then drafting an understudy is something to consider, but there is talent outside of Luck. Luck would bring a multitude of players and draft picks, that could fill the voids and replace the aging players with youthful hungry talent! Luck would bring a first round pick this year, next year, and even the following year! Not to mention second, third, and so on with other draft picks! Look what the Browns got from the Falcons for the sixth overall pick for Julio Jones! Luck is the most hyped and valued QB since Manning, from a draft perspective. He would bring imense value from draft picks and possible players. And your opinion is farcical on Manning will not get them back to SB contention, this is essentially the same team from the 2009 SB, which was only two short seasosns ago. You must be forgetting this is a playoff team every year under Manning, no matter how bad the talent has been around him. To say all those draft picks with some possible players would not improve this team you are being naive and surely one sided!

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