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Will Drafting Luck Be The Right Move?


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This question assumes that Manning at least has two to three years left. If Manning is done then there is no question you got to take him.

Over the past few months we have seen the festering warts and wounds that Manning helped cover up during his time here. We have witnessed how much this team is dependent on one player. Without that one player this team has fallen bottom of the league after spending most of the decade as one of the top three teams.

This brings me to the question will draft Luck be the right move if Manning has something left in the tank? Maybe taking that pick and getting teams like the Skins, Phins, and Seahawks into a bidding war is the right spot. If we could get a trade of 2 1st round picks, 2nd round picks and say a 4th round pick you could do a lot of work in developing that defense into something that could stand on its own.

Then using next year’s top 10 pick that we would get from one of those crappy teams we take a QB and let him sit for a year or so and us the remaining draft of 2013 to fill in spots at WR, OL and defense to get ready for the rookie to step in after Manning retires.

Then we potentially could have a much more balanced team for the young QB to be surrounded with. Of course this all could be mute because Luck lives up to his hype and we just transition into another great QB for the next decade.

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The Colts may be lucky enough to have drafted the 2 biggest QB prospects in the last 25 years. If Luck is there, it would dumb not to take him. It it very hard to find a franchise QB, Buffalo,Miami, and Denver should be great history lessions for the Colts. Jim Kelly,Dan Marino and John Elway have still not been replaced in those cities. The best case scenero would be for Manning to come back healthy, and Luck learn behind him for 2-3 years. I think if this could happen we could have a seemless transition like they had in Green Bay.

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I say you draft Luck regardless.

They have to find an NFL quality back up QB. To expect Manning to still take every snap for 16 weeks (plus hopefully some playoff games) at age 36 - after missing 18 months and having multiple neck surgeries would not be a good plan.

Neither of the QB's on the roster right now have any business on an NFL roster and the Colts are "luck"y enough to have them both be playing and/or starting.

If they pass on Luck -- which IMO would be a bad move -- they need to make their 1st pick in Rd 2 be the best QB available.

They have to find a replacement for Manning in this draft, since nobody is going to be able to say in early April if Manning will be able to make it thru training camp, much less if he'll still be starting games in December.

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Yes, Luck has been known as the best and safest college QB prospects next to Manning, Marino, Elway, and Montana. Look at some teams who couldnt find franchise qbs for years dolphins, broncos, bills, and bengals. If we want the colts to be succsessful later then were set

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I think if Peyton is 100% able to play next year and can play his 4 years, I think drafting Luck would be a mistake. As another post so accurately pointed out, this team is essentially the same team that made the Super Bowl, minus Manning of course. So here is how I see it breaking down:

1) If you draft Luck and trade/cut Manning, it will be 2-3 years before the Colts would contend because Luck would have growing pains. Well, in 2-3 years, we likely don't have Wayne, Mathis, Freeney, and many veteran stars we have now. So my guess is my the time Luck is good, it is likely another 2 years for the rest of the team around him to be good. So we might have 4 years of being bad.

2) If you trade the Luck pick to a team like Miami for their 1st and 2nd this year, and 1st next year, you can draft a receiver like Blackmon to be the next great Colt WR, shore up the secondary with the two high #2s, and we are competing fo tthe Super Bowl the next 3-4 years. And we have Miami's likely top 10 #1 pick next year. Draft Manning's successor in two years, so they have two years on the bench.

So, IMHO, I cringe about the idea of taking Luck. To me, that is conceding the next 3-4 years of being bad.

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I think if Peyton is 100% able to play next year and can play his 4 years, I think drafting Luck would be a mistake. As another post so accurately pointed out, this team is essentially the same team that made the Super Bowl, minus Manning of course. So here is how I see it breaking down:

1) If you draft Luck and trade/cut Manning, it will be 2-3 years before the Colts would contend because Luck would have growing pains. Well, in 2-3 years, we likely don't have Wayne, Mathis, Freeney, and many veteran stars we have now. So my guess is my the time Luck is good, it is likely another 2 years for the rest of the team around him to be good. So we might have 4 years of being bad.

2) If you trade the Luck pick to a team like Miami for their 1st and 2nd this year, and 1st next year, you can draft a receiver like Blackmon to be the next great Colt WR, shore up the secondary with the two high #2s, and we are competing fo tthe Super Bowl the next 3-4 years. And we have Miami's likely top 10 #1 pick next year. Draft Manning's successor in two years, so they have two years on the bench.

So, IMHO, I cringe about the idea of taking Luck. To me, that is conceding the next 3-4 years of being bad.

Well the team may have a bunch of the same players, they are not the same team. Everyone is 2 years older, a lot have had somewhat major injures at least one of the last two years and some both. We have let some good players go. We still have a ton of holes, and if Manning comes back I am not sure you are competing for SBs anyway. You may be a 9-11 win team and back into drafting in the 20s.

Do you want to run with Manning and be a 4, 5, or 6 seed in the playoffs with a slight chance of winning for 4 years or do you want to start building for the future? The key to good business is to sell when you get the most bang for your buck. As much as I love Peyton if you can get a top 5 pick for him, I think you do it. I'm not sure you would and I certainly wouldn't take a late first rounder for him but there are teams who he would help greatly and put him in a better position to win a title than he would have here.

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Where have we heard this {below quotes} before?

"But Luck's {Heisman} candidacy is unique because, to a far greater degree than any college quarterback in recent memory, Luck calls his own plays.

Stanford typically signals in three plays from the sideline. Luck has the option to run the first play in the progression or switch to one of the other two. His decisions are always based on how the defense is aligned when Stanford gets to the line of scrimmage.

When asked how often Luck changes out of passing plays and into running plays -- thus reducing his opportunity to accumulate passing yards and touchdowns -- Shaw declined to answer.

"It's too complicated to put a percentage on," he said. "But when he gets us into a run, it's generally successful.

"The guy runs the game like nobody else in college football."

Snippet from Mecury News

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_19345342

I heard on Mike & Mike on ESPN where Aaron Rodgers tell how invaluable is was for him to sit 2-3 years and learn to read defenses and how off season film study accelerates the process and slowed the game down for him before fully taking over. And this is without the mentorship from the QB ahead of him (we all know the Favre drama). He was kind of making a case that if the Colts do pick Luck, and Peyton does heal and procedes with returning as the starting QB, it wouldn't be such a bad situation for Luck in the grand scheme.

Essentially, our draft choice spots are early unlike the previous decade where we were always late round. Certainly enough good talent should be on the board to fill in the holes we need for Peyton. Luck learns and takes over when Peyton hangs it up. That is the uncertainty, Peytons health, and he/it holds up in actual games. He may not wish to complete the 4 years and instead go raise his twins while he still has full mobility and relative good health.

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The Rodgers effect is one example of how a well run organization was very fortunate to replace one of the games greats. This is one of very few examples of this happening, the other notable was Montana and Young. The Packers have depth upon depth of great players, with a good defense. They don’t over pay for their own, they draft extremely well, and when big name players want the big pay day, they let them walk and its next man up. This is what the Colts should strive to be like, not over paying for their own and building through successful drafts, and sometimes a few key free agents. Brady was a late round draft pick as were many other who have had a major impact in NFL football. Talent exists outside of the #1 player in the draft. Look at Cam Newton this year and Andy Dalton, Dalton is having great success, and he was a second round pick. Although Cam is doing well it shows there is talent outside of the top QB! Trade the top pick, get picks and players, and if really sold on taking a QB, take Barkley or Jones wherever the pick is! You only take Luck if Manning is going to never be able to step on the field again period!

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The 2-3 year timeframe that the OP assumes is the tipping point at which I would consider a trade-down. If Peyton projects 1-2 seasons I would just draft Luck.

But ANY trade of the #1 pick should not only net a package of draft picks....but also a young Pro Bowl level player at a position of need.

If a potential trade partner....and there will probably be several.....covets Andrew Luck enough to move up to the #1 overall spot, then we need to hedge the transaction by knowing that, at the very least, we are decisively addressing either the DT, OG or CB position.

Given our subpar draft results over most of the last 5 years.... I'm not as drunk with enthusiasm about a pile of draft picks as some fans are. Castonzo, Ijalana, Nevis and Carter are promising young players....but I will by no means consider their positions settled based on one season especially factoring in some of their injury issues.

So if the front office were to decide on a trade-down....I could live with two 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks and a young Pro Bowler at DT, OG or CB.

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