Let's rank some QBs!

[Superman]

Yeah, we do this every year, and no it doesn't really mean anything, and it's incredibly subjective and can never be definitive. But it's the doldrums of the offseason, with 3+ weeks still before camps open. So let's talk. 

 

Here's one of the threads from last year where we talked about QB rankings, if you're interested: http://forums.colts.com/topic/15363-rank-qbs-elite-qbs-merge/

 

I will again break my rankings into tiers.

 

Tier 1 / Elite:

Brady, Brees, P. Manning, Rodgers (alphabetical order). I don't know that the order makes a difference, and I don't really want to argue about "rings vs stats" and all that stuff again. We have and can do that in other threads. I just believe that these four guys are the current Mt. Rushmore of NFL QBs, based on several years of top performance, and the ability to make their teams contenders every year. In the past five seasons, there are only two non-playoff seasons among these four, and one was Manning's 2011. These QBs are always the main catalyst for their teams. They might have a bad game here or there, but you know you always have a chance at a championship season with these four guys.

 

(To me, "elite" means superlative, the best of the best, the cream of the crop, the guys who are almost universally regarded as being at the top of the mountain. My group of elites hasn't changed from last year, because I believe that it takes sustained performance over a long time to earn your way into this group. Having a few good games in the playoffs or having really good stats for a couple seasons isn't enough to be elite. This group is, by definition, exclusive, and I think there's a clear distinction between these four guys and everyone else.)

 

Tier 2 / Nobles:

Ryan, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Luck, Wilson, E. Manning. This is my personal order, top to bottom, in this group. Your mileage may vary. Some of these guys have more upside than others, some of them have more proven performance, so the gradient is very tenuous, no matter what. But this group, I think you should make the playoffs pretty much every year, and if you don't, it's because something else on your is broken. They all can put up big numbers, and they can make big plays in big games. They might have some minor flaws, or still be improving in key areas, but they've proven their ability to lead their team to some measure of success. Luck and Wilson, and maybe Ryan, are more likely to be the Elite in future years, maybe even next year.

 

Tier 3 / Solid vets and likely risers:

Kaepernick, Newton, Flacco, Romo, Cutler, Dalton, A. Smith, Stafford, Foles, Tannehill, Griffin, Palmer. I don't know how to order these, to be honest. I think they're all kind of lumped together, as far as quality is concerned. Again, some have more upside; Kaepernick and Newton are still getting better. The rest probably are what they are at this point. Flacco took a big step forward at the end of 2011 and throughout 2012, but seemed to regress in 2013. Stafford can sling it, but doesn't seem to carry his team to victories like the guys in Tier 2 can. Romo and Cutler get hurt and make mistakes too often to be counted on. Palmer has had two pretty nice seasons in a row, but continues to turn the ball over too much. Alex Smith has a good case for being Tier 2, but he seems to have hit a ceiling. Dalton, Tannehill and Foles have a case as well, and are probably nearer the top of this list. I'd rather have Newton, Kaepernick, Dalton, Tannehill or Foles, than the more veteran players in this group. I'm torn on Griffin; let's see how he recovers.

 

Tier 4 / Decent, but I'm hoping for much better:

Bradford, Hoyer, Manuel, Glennon, McCown, Locker, Schaub, Henne, Fitzpatrick, Campbell. Again, not sure how to order these, or if it matters. Some young guys who haven't played a lot, nor have they been particularly impressive, but have showed some upside. A couple vets that we know are decent, but not good enough to make their teams contenders in any division. The wildcard here is probably the 34 year old McCown, who played really well for Chicago, but his performance last year was an outlier from the previous 50 games he's played in the league. I think Bradford is talented, but he's always hurt; same for Locker. Manuel and Glennon did a little bit to make me think they can be quality QBs. Schaub really fell off last year. Hoyer, Campbell, Fitzpatrick and Henne were decent stand-ins, but they aren't good enough.

 

Tier 5 / the rest:

G. Smith, Pryor, Weeden, Cassel, Keenum, etc. Some of these guys aren't even worth talking about. Smith is probably going to be the starter for the Jets, but he didn't look very capable last year. The rest of the guys in this category are unlikely to start unless the one or two guys ahead of them get injured. Some have had more chances than others, but none of them are likely to be starters on playoff teams at any point in their careers.

 

Projecting the noteworthy rookies:

Bortles -- Likely to start at some point in 2014, has the physical tools to be a Tier 2/3 kind of guy in a few years. He'll probably be unremarkable if/when he plays this year, but the Jags have added some serious offensive weapons (pun intended) the last couple of years, and I think Bortles might be in a good situation.

Manziel -- The Browns are talking about an extension for Hoyer, and he's the projected starter. Manziel might not play at all in 2014, if Hoyer picks up where he left off last year. However, they spent a first rounder on him, so it's likely that they anticipate him taking some snaps at some point this year. I have questions about his playing style and ability to hold up physically, but he can make plays with his arm and his legs. I think he's a Tier 3 kind of guy, who might have some magic for a while, but ultimately won't be more than a pretty good QB.

Bridgewater -- He'll probably play this season as well, and I'm kind of "meh" on him overall. Not a great arm, not very big or athletic, but he can put up numbers, he throws with nice touch, and he takes good care of the ball. The latter is why he can earn the trust of his coaches, but I don't know how far he'll go in his career. I see a low ceiling for him, maybe Tier 3 at best.

Garappolo / Savage -- Probably won't play, but might be serious Tier 3 candidates in the right situation. Both have a little bit of twinkle to them, but will have to fight and scrap just to make final rosters.

McCarron -- I don't think very much of his pro prospects.

Mettenberger -- Great arm, bit of a slinger, probably would have been drafted a lot higher if not for injuries. Carson Palmer is a frequent comparison, and I think it fits, but Palmer was a first rounder and got to play right away. A slow approach and good development could turn him into a solid starter.

 

 

All JMO. Let me know what you think.

[amfootball]

I think this is list is solid. A couple of changes.

 

I would break up the elite into two tiers though: Tier 1 - Manning and Brady. Tier 1a - Rodgers and Brees. I just think there is Manning and Brady and everyone else.

 

I would also move Eli down to tier 3. I know he has the 2 rings but he just does not seem capable as the other Qbs of carrying a poor team. In fact, he plays terrible if his team is rebuilding like it was last year.

[Superman]

I think this is list is solid. A couple of changes.

 

I would break up the elite into two tiers though: Tier 1 - Manning and Brady. Tier 1a - Rodgers and Brees. I just think there is Manning and Brady and everyone else.

 

I would also move Eli down to tier 3. I know he has the 2 rings but he just does not seem capable as the other Qbs of carrying a poor team. In fact, he plays terrible if his team is rebuilding like it was last year.

 

Eli is more up and down than he should be. That's the only tier I actually ranked, and I put him last on it because of that. But the Giants trench play was awful last year. It wasn't about rebuilding, they just got manhandled up front, on both sides of the ball. Too many turnovers from Eli, but I don't think anyone else in Tier 2 would be any better in those circumstances. Maybe Luck, but the Giants pass pro was worse than the Colts last year...

 

Tier 1, I don't think there's any notable separation between those four. Yes, Brady and Manning have done it longer, but what Brees and Rodgers have done the last five plus years has been fantastic. The differences in the play of those four over recent years has been negligible, at best.

[BOTT]

I think this is list is solid. A couple of changes.

 

I would break up the elite into two tiers though: Tier 1 - Manning and Brady. Tier 1a - Rodgers and Brees. I just think there is Manning and Brady and everyone else.

 

I would also move Eli down to tier 3. I know he has the 2 rings but he just does not seem capable as the other Qbs of carrying a poor team. In fact, he plays terrible if his team is rebuilding like it was last year.

Eli will be comeback player of the year...book it lol

[Superman]

One more thing on Rodgers: He's a 100% yes QB.

 

If I needed him for one game, regardless of opponent, venue, home/away, any set of receivers, regular season or playoffs, any conditions, would I want him? Yes.

 

If I needed him for a full season, to win my division and get my team in the playoffs, would I want him? Yes.

 

If I needed him for the next five years, to consistently win the division and make the playoffs, would I want him? Yes.

 

Would I trade any player on any team for him, straight up? Yes.

 

I believe fully in Manning, Brady and Brees, but I don't know about five years from now, and I wouldn't trade Luck or Rodgers for any of them. And I'm a huge Luck fan, and believe in his potential as a franchise QB. But I still believe Rodgers is so much better right now, and will continue to play at a high level for long enough, that if I had to make the decision, I'd go with Rodgers. (Last year, I said Luck + any other player. I wouldn't say that anymore.)

 

And unlike the rest in Tier 1, he has yet to have one of those really ugly playoff losses. His stat line in the 2010 NFCCG isn't great, but I didn't come away from that game thinking he didn't play well.

[amfootball]

Eli will be comeback player of the year...book it lol

Sure. All he has to do is throw 15 picks and he will have cut his total in half. He will be the obvious choice. ;)

[amfootball]

One more thing on Rodgers: He's a 100% yes QB.

 

If I needed him for one game, regardless of opponent, venue, home/away, any set of receivers, regular season or playoffs, any conditions, would I want him? Yes.

 

If I needed him for a full season, to win my division and get my team in the playoffs, would I want him? Yes.

 

If I needed him for the next five years, to consistently win the division and make the playoffs, would I want him? Yes.

 

Would I trade any player on any team for him, straight up? Yes.

 

I believe fully in Manning, Brady and Brees, but I don't know about five years from now, and I wouldn't trade Luck or Rodgers for any of them. And I'm a huge Luck fan, and believe in his potential as a franchise QB. But I still believe Rodgers is so much better right now, and will continue to play at a high level for long enough, that if I had to make the decision, I'd go with Rodgers. (Last year, I said Luck + any other player. I wouldn't say that anymore.)

 

And unlike the rest in Tier 1, he has yet to have one of those really ugly playoff losses. His stat line in the 2010 NFCCG isn't great, but I didn't come away from that game thinking he didn't play well.

I like Rodgers too but his percentage of winning games in the fourth quarter when trailing late is woeful compared to the other elites. And the niners own him. I never thought I would see him get beat time and again by the same team. And I know the niners are a power house but it was not that long ago that we thought he would reel off a few Lombardi's. I know much of that is the factor of his team and org and I do think GB has issues with its front office but I would not want him on the final drive of a game to win - I would take Brady or Manning in a heartbeat and Luck too.

[Holden89]

I agree for the most part.  The only thing I would change is add a category above elite for Peyton and Tom.  Then add Big Ben to the elite category.

 

Tier 0 / Legendary:

 

Peyton Manning, Tom Brady

 

Tier 1 / Elite:

 

Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger

 

Tier 2 / Nobles:

 

Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Russel Wilson, Eli Manning

 

everything else is exactly the same as you.

 

 

 

 

Also, to add to the other point.  The only player in the NFL (right now) I'd take over Rodgers is Luck.  It's a very tough choice, though...

[Nobody]

What are the criteria? Last year? Career?

[Superman]

I like Rodgers too but his percentage of winning games in the fourth quarter when trailing late is woeful compared to the other elites. And the niners own him. I never thought I would see him get beat time and again by the same team. And I know the niners are a power house but it was not that long ago that we thought he would reel off a few Lombardi's. I know much of that is the factor of his team and org and I do think GB has issues with its front office but I would not want him on the final drive of a game to win - I would take Brady or Manning in a heartbeat and Luck too.

 

Rodgers plays fine against the Niners. They shred the Packers defense, but Rodgers has pretty much never had a bad game against them. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RodgAa00/gamelog/

 

I haven't looked at his late game numbers, but I've seen him come through in late game situations many times. Do you have some links that break down his late game performances?

 

By the way, I might take another player in the clutch instead of Rodgers, but I have no problem with him taking the field late in the game if my team needs a score. Doesn't mean he'd necessarily be my first choice.

[Superman]

What are the criteria? Last year? Career?

 

Loose criteria, I think. Career, recent performances, projected future performances, consistency, accomplishments, etc. If you're ranking, what's important to you?

[NFLfan]

Eli is a Tier 3 player who has played at an elite/noble level at times. However, he is too inconsistent and throws too many INTs to be Noble.

Wilson is not yet in the "Noble" category, IMO.

I like Big Ben and Rivers better than Ryan. Big Ben probably should be included in the Elite category but he would be ranked 5th after the other Elites.

[RealityIsLuck]

1. Peyton Manning

2. Aaron Rodgers

3. Drew Brees 

4. Tom Brady

5. Andrew Luck

6. Cam Newton

7. Russell Wilson

8. Philip Rivers

9. Ben Rotelishburger

10. Matt Ryan

11. Colin Kapernick

12. Jay Cutler 

13. Tony Romo

14. Joe Flacco

15. Robert Griffin III

[Dustin]

1. Rodgers, Manning, Brees - God tier

2. Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Roethlisberger- Great

2.5. Romo - Romo

3. Wilson, Luck, Kaepernick, Foles, Cutler, Newton, Tannehill - Great/Good either young or inconsistent

4. Stafford, Dalton, Alex Smith, Eli, RG3, McCown- Meh

5. Flacco, Schaub, Palmer, Locker, Vick, Bradford- Below average

6. EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, Fitzpatrick, Cassell, Henne - Bad

None of the tiers are in order btw

[Shane Bond]

I think this is list is solid. A couple of changes.

I would break up the elite into two tiers though: Tier 1 - Manning and Brady. Tier 1a - Rodgers and Brees. I just think there is Manning and Brady and everyone else.

I would also move Eli down to tier 3. I know he has the 2 rings but he just does not seem capable as the other Qbs of carrying a poor team. In fact, he plays terrible if his team is rebuilding like it was last year.

I agree, it's Manning/Brady and the rest.

[Shane Bond]

1. Rodgers, Manning, Brees - God tier

2. Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Roethlisberger- Great

2.5. Romo - Romo

3. Wilson, Luck, Kaepernick, Foles, Cutler, Newton, Tannehill - Great/Good either young or inconsistent

4. Stafford, Dalton, Alex Smith, Eli, RG3, McCown- Meh

5. Flacco, Schaub, Palmer, Locker, Vick, Bradford- Below average

6. EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, Fitzpatrick, Cassell, Henne - Bad

None of the tiers are in order btw

Schaub fits better at 6

[Jules]

-I would switch Ryan and Romo. Ryan is like an overrated soft robot QB anyway LOL. If Ryan/Romo got switched then the second tier is fine to me. Romo works his butt off at times on a team that is a giant circus.

 

-Nice job putting "the big 4" together in the first tier. But, Rodgers and the Pack need to put together a playoff win or two again. The SB run can only last so long in my mind from 2010.

 

-Luck/Wilson are my favorite of the young QB group. I may be biased at times with Luck. It might even be too soon for Luck/Wilson to be that high up. But, both have shown us a lot of intangibles and appear to be team guys with bright futures. Luck has not had the postseason success like Wilson (yet), but he has shown he can win with crappy o lines, injuries to WRs, with little run game and with a shaky defense.

 

-Tebow is in the last tier with Manziel. They should make a movie together and go on tour.

[Surge89]

Yeah, we do this every year, and no it doesn't really mean anything, and it's incredibly subjective and can never be definitive. But it's the doldrums of the offseason, with 3+ weeks still before camps open. So let's talk. 

 

Here's one of the threads from last year where we talked about QB rankings, if you're interested: http://forums.colts.com/topic/15363-rank-qbs-elite-qbs-merge/

 

I will again break my rankings into tiers.

 

Tier 1 / Elite:

Brady, Brees, P. Manning, Rodgers (alphabetical order). I don't know that the order makes a difference, and I don't really want to argue about "rings vs stats" and all that stuff again. We have and can do that in other threads. I just believe that these four guys are the current Mt. Rushmore of NFL QBs, based on several years of top performance, and the ability to make their teams contenders every year. In the past five seasons, there are only two non-playoff seasons among these four, and one was Manning's 2011. These QBs are always the main catalyst for their teams. They might have a bad game here or there, but you know you always have a chance at a championship season with these four guys.

 

(To me, "elite" means superlative, the best of the best, the cream of the crop, the guys who are almost universally regarded as being at the top of the mountain. My group of elites hasn't changed from last year, because I believe that it takes sustained performance over a long time to earn your way into this group. Having a few good games in the playoffs or having really good stats for a couple seasons isn't enough to be elite. This group is, by definition, exclusive, and I think there's a clear distinction between these four guys and everyone else.)

 

Tier 2 / Nobles:

Ryan, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Luck, Wilson, E. Manning. This is my personal order, top to bottom, in this group. Your mileage may vary. Some of these guys have more upside than others, some of them have more proven performance, so the gradient is very tenuous, no matter what. But this group, I think you should make the playoffs pretty much every year, and if you don't, it's because something else on your is broken. They all can put up big numbers, and they can make big plays in big games. They might have some minor flaws, or still be improving in key areas, but they've proven their ability to lead their team to some measure of success. Luck and Wilson, and maybe Ryan, are more likely to be the Elite in future years, maybe even next year.

 

Tier 3 / Solid vets and likely risers:

Kaepernick, Newton, Flacco, Romo, Cutler, Dalton, A. Smith, Stafford, Foles, Tannehill, Griffin, Palmer. I don't know how to order these, to be honest. I think they're all kind of lumped together, as far as quality is concerned. Again, some have more upside; Kaepernick and Newton are still getting better. The rest probably are what they are at this point. Flacco took a big step forward at the end of 2011 and throughout 2012, but seemed to regress in 2013. Stafford can sling it, but doesn't seem to carry his team to victories like the guys in Tier 2 can. Romo and Cutler get hurt and make mistakes too often to be counted on. Palmer has had two pretty nice seasons in a row, but continues to turn the ball over too much. Alex Smith has a good case for being Tier 2, but he seems to have hit a ceiling. Dalton, Tannehill and Foles have a case as well, and are probably nearer the top of this list. I'd rather have Newton, Kaepernick, Dalton, Tannehill or Foles, than the more veteran players in this group. I'm torn on Griffin; let's see how he recovers.

 

Tier 4 / Decent, but I'm hoping for much better:

Bradford, Hoyer, Manuel, Glennon, McCown, Locker, Schaub, Henne, Fitzpatrick, Campbell. Again, not sure how to order these, or if it matters. Some young guys who haven't played a lot, nor have they been particularly impressive, but have showed some upside. A couple vets that we know are decent, but not good enough to make their teams contenders in any division. The wildcard here is probably the 34 year old McCown, who played really well for Chicago, but his performance last year was an outlier from the previous 50 games he's played in the league. I think Bradford is talented, but he's always hurt; same for Locker. Manuel and Glennon did a little bit to make me think they can be quality QBs. Schaub really fell off last year. Hoyer, Campbell, Fitzpatrick and Henne were decent stand-ins, but they aren't good enough.

 

Tier 5 / the rest:

G. Smith, Pryor, Weeden, Cassel, Keenum, etc. Some of these guys aren't even worth talking about. Smith is probably going to be the starter for the Jets, but he didn't look very capable last year. The rest of the guys in this category are unlikely to start unless the one or two guys ahead of them get injured. Some have had more chances than others, but none of them are likely to be starters on playoff teams at any point in their careers.

 

Projecting the noteworthy rookies:

Bortles -- Likely to start at some point in 2014, has the physical tools to be a Tier 2/3 kind of guy in a few years. He'll probably be unremarkable if/when he plays this year, but the Jags have added some serious offensive weapons (pun intended) the last couple of years, and I think Bortles might be in a good situation.

Manziel -- The Browns are talking about an extension for Hoyer, and he's the projected starter. Manziel might not play at all in 2014, if Hoyer picks up where he left off last year. However, they spent a first rounder on him, so it's likely that they anticipate him taking some snaps at some point this year. I have questions about his playing style and ability to hold up physically, but he can make plays with his arm and his legs. I think he's a Tier 3 kind of guy, who might have some magic for a while, but ultimately won't be more than a pretty good QB.

Bridgewater -- He'll probably play this season as well, and I'm kind of "meh" on him overall. Not a great arm, not very big or athletic, but he can put up numbers, he throws with nice touch, and he takes good care of the ball. The latter is why he can earn the trust of his coaches, but I don't know how far he'll go in his career. I see a low ceiling for him, maybe Tier 3 at best.

Garappolo / Savage -- Probably won't play, but might be serious Tier 3 candidates in the right situation. Both have a little bit of twinkle to them, but will have to fight and scrap just to make final rosters.

McCarron -- I don't think very much of his pro prospects.

Mettenberger -- Great arm, bit of a slinger, probably would have been drafted a lot higher if not for injuries. Carson Palmer is a frequent comparison, and I think it fits, but Palmer was a first rounder and got to play right away. A slow approach and good development could turn him into a solid starter.

 

 

All JMO. Let me know what you think.

 

 

Awesome discussion!

 

Brees and Rodgers don't belong in the same tier as Brady and Manning imo.  Brees hasn't proven anything without Sean Payton and Rodgers puts up gaudy numbers but he just does not play the end of a game like Brady/Manning or Brees (with Payton).  Brady and Manning have accomplished what no other QB ever has and that is consistently put up a freakish output of wins/points/stats without anything (coaching changes, bad coaching, loss of receivers, loss of oline, loss of defense) getting in their way.  Rodgers and Brees just have not done that nor do I think they have the capability to be utterly perfect when everything is crumbing around them.

 

Tier 2 Needs Newton added.  He is more than a one trick pony.  He has proven he has promise in this league to be more than a running QB.  I'm also borderline on Foles being in this category as well, as he does seem to fit the bill as promising.

 

Tier 3 Needs Griffin to be dropped a tier.  He has not shown to be anything but a one trick wonder.

 

The rest I agree with! :-)  All imo of course!

[Superman]

Awesome discussion!

 

Brees and Rodgers don't belong in the same tier as Brady and Manning imo.  Brees hasn't proven anything without Sean Payton and Rodgers puts up gaudy numbers but he just does not play the end of a game like Brady/Manning or Brees (with Payton).  Brady and Manning have accomplished what no other QB ever has and that is consistently put up a freakish output of wins/points/stats without anything (coaching changes, bad coaching, loss of receivers, loss of oline, loss of defense) getting in their way.  Rodgers and Brees just have not done that nor do I think they have the capability to be utterly perfect when everything is crumbing around them.

 

Tier 2 Needs Newton added.  He is more than a one trick pony.  He has proven he has promise in this league to be more than a running QB.  I'm also borderline on Foles being in this category as well, as he does seem to fit the bill as promising.

 

Tier 3 Needs Griffin to be dropped a tier.  He has not shown to be anything but a one trick wonder.

 

The rest I agree with! :-)  All imo of course!

 

Thanks for the feedback. Probably not a surprise, but I have several disagreements.

 

You say Brees hasn't proved anything without Sean Payton, but Brady hasn't proven anything without Bill Belichick. You might flip that around, and say Payton and Belichick haven't proved anything without Brees and Brady... I'm not sure what a QB is supposed to do without a good coach. Also, Brees had two very good years in SD, and if not for his injury, he probably would have gotten a much bigger deal off the bat with the Saints. The only knock against Brees, in my opinion, is 2012, but neither Brady nor Manning have ever had to deal with that kind of situation.

 

Rodgers is still newer, but he hasn't had great receivers or great blocking. Neither Manning nor Brady has been perfect with everything crumbling around them, as you put it. Manning struggled for a solid stretch in 2010 when things weren't going so well. Brady didn't look good last season. Because they've been doing it longer, I do think they're at the top of this tier. But as I said, I think all four of these guys are clearly better than everyone else, and the only down years they ever have are when bad things happen with coaching or injuries.

 

I don't feel strongly about Newton or Foles, but I get it. Both were very good in 2013. I think the guys in put in Tier 2 are better, personally.

 

I also don't feel strongly about Griffin, but I don't think he's a one trick wonder, whatever that means. I'd rather have Luck or Wilson than Griffin (or Newton or Foles or Kaepernick), but Griffin did a good job in his role in 2012. We'll see what he does with Jay Gruden.

[BloodyChamp]

The old thread I bumped up the other day covers Rodgers. It's not just the Niners or the 4th quarter...it's any team with 8 or more wins any time, any place. He would be a glorified Joe Namath (what an oxymoron lol) without his 1 free playoff win since his Cinderella season. Brees won a playoff game against the winner of the mentally challenged division this season but it's his only playoff win since Bountygate. His "2 very good" seasons in SD were 2 out of 5, where he was either hurt or benched for Doug Flutie the rest of the time. I completely agree with them being below Peyton and Tom. I'd put them below some other less statlicious quarterbacks who win more games too but...small steps.

[NewColtsFan]

For what it's worth,  here's a list that will look not too dissimilar from Superman's list....

 

The article is from NFL.com...  the writer is a guy named Chris Wesseling...   he's a staff writer,  I just don't know him well enough to have a good feel for him....   but I didn't see any name that looked too far out of place....   it's worth a click on the link and a look see...

 

Enjoy!

 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000362711/article/aaron-rodgers-tops-preseason-list-of-nfls-best-qbs

[akcolt]

I think Stafford is a little underrated he has never had anyone but Megatron which is a lot but he is one of only 4qb's to throw for over 5,000 yards in a season. I know the int's are high that is a product of forcing to CJ or trying to hit guys like Burleson. He can throw the thing a country mile.

 

I think Matt Ryan is overrated and Romo is better than he gets credit for switch the two and see what happens. Romo has had to play for Jason Garrett well basically Jones as his coach his entire career I think if he ever got out of Dallas he would be better off.

[Jules]

1. Rodgers, Manning, Brees - God tier

2. Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Roethlisberger- Great

2.5. Romo - Romo

3. Wilson, Luck, Kaepernick, Foles, Cutler, Newton, Tannehill - Great/Good either young or inconsistent

4. Stafford, Dalton, Alex Smith, Eli, RG3, McCown- Meh

5. Flacco, Schaub, Palmer, Locker, Vick, Bradford- Below average

6. EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, Fitzpatrick, Cassell, Henne - Bad

None of the tiers are in order btw

 

 

I absolutely love this.   Brady in the same group as those guys when some act like he is in God mode every week.

[amfootball]

Rodgers plays fine against the Niners. They shred the Packers defense, but Rodgers has pretty much never had a bad game against them. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RodgAa00/gamelog/

 

I haven't looked at his late game numbers, but I've seen him come through in late game situations many times. Do you have some links that break down his late game performances?

 

By the way, I might take another player in the clutch instead of Rodgers, but I have no problem with him taking the field late in the game if my team needs a score. Doesn't mean he'd necessarily be my first choice.

There was a thread on it from last year on his late game performances, http://forums.colts.com/topic/20944-aaron-rodgers-is-not-a-clutch-qb/

Rodgers ranks dead last in terms of percentage of games won late and that is not just against the elites but against current and past QBs. Brady is first on the list and Manning is fifth.

 

Like I said, I think he is a great QB but he is still somewhat riding 2010. He may not have had bad games against the niners but he has not done enough to win them either and I realize he has had some had defenses but last year his defense played well the whole game and still he was not able to do enough at the end to win.

[sweetsurrender]

Yeah, we do this every year, and no it doesn't really mean anything, and it's incredibly subjective and can never be definitive. But it's the doldrums of the offseason, with 3+ weeks still before camps open. So let's talk. 

 

Here's one of the threads from last year where we talked about QB rankings, if you're interested: http://forums.colts.com/topic/15363-rank-qbs-elite-qbs-merge/

 

I will again break my rankings into tiers.

 

Tier 1 / Elite:

Brady, Brees, P. Manning, Rodgers (alphabetical order). I don't know that the order makes a difference, and I don't really want to argue about "rings vs stats" and all that stuff again. We have and can do that in other threads. I just believe that these four guys are the current Mt. Rushmore of NFL QBs, based on several years of top performance, and the ability to make their teams contenders every year. In the past five seasons, there are only two non-playoff seasons among these four, and one was Manning's 2011. These QBs are always the main catalyst for their teams. They might have a bad game here or there, but you know you always have a chance at a championship season with these four guys.

 

(To me, "elite" means superlative, the best of the best, the cream of the crop, the guys who are almost universally regarded as being at the top of the mountain. My group of elites hasn't changed from last year, because I believe that it takes sustained performance over a long time to earn your way into this group. Having a few good games in the playoffs or having really good stats for a couple seasons isn't enough to be elite. This group is, by definition, exclusive, and I think there's a clear distinction between these four guys and everyone else.)

 

Tier 2 / Nobles:

Ryan, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Luck, Wilson, E. Manning. This is my personal order, top to bottom, in this group. Your mileage may vary. Some of these guys have more upside than others, some of them have more proven performance, so the gradient is very tenuous, no matter what. But this group, I think you should make the playoffs pretty much every year, and if you don't, it's because something else on your is broken. They all can put up big numbers, and they can make big plays in big games. They might have some minor flaws, or still be improving in key areas, but they've proven their ability to lead their team to some measure of success. Luck and Wilson, and maybe Ryan, are more likely to be the Elite in future years, maybe even next year.

 

Tier 3 / Solid vets and likely risers:

Kaepernick, Newton, Flacco, Romo, Cutler, Dalton, A. Smith, Stafford, Foles, Tannehill, Griffin, Palmer. I don't know how to order these, to be honest. I think they're all kind of lumped together, as far as quality is concerned. Again, some have more upside; Kaepernick and Newton are still getting better. The rest probably are what they are at this point. Flacco took a big step forward at the end of 2011 and throughout 2012, but seemed to regress in 2013. Stafford can sling it, but doesn't seem to carry his team to victories like the guys in Tier 2 can. Romo and Cutler get hurt and make mistakes too often to be counted on. Palmer has had two pretty nice seasons in a row, but continues to turn the ball over too much. Alex Smith has a good case for being Tier 2, but he seems to have hit a ceiling. Dalton, Tannehill and Foles have a case as well, and are probably nearer the top of this list. I'd rather have Newton, Kaepernick, Dalton, Tannehill or Foles, than the more veteran players in this group. I'm torn on Griffin; let's see how he recovers.

 

Tier 4 / Decent, but I'm hoping for much better:

Bradford, Hoyer, Manuel, Glennon, McCown, Locker, Schaub, Henne, Fitzpatrick, Campbell. Again, not sure how to order these, or if it matters. Some young guys who haven't played a lot, nor have they been particularly impressive, but have showed some upside. A couple vets that we know are decent, but not good enough to make their teams contenders in any division. The wildcard here is probably the 34 year old McCown, who played really well for Chicago, but his performance last year was an outlier from the previous 50 games he's played in the league. I think Bradford is talented, but he's always hurt; same for Locker. Manuel and Glennon did a little bit to make me think they can be quality QBs. Schaub really fell off last year. Hoyer, Campbell, Fitzpatrick and Henne were decent stand-ins, but they aren't good enough.

 

Tier 5 / the rest:

G. Smith, Pryor, Weeden, Cassel, Keenum, etc. Some of these guys aren't even worth talking about. Smith is probably going to be the starter for the Jets, but he didn't look very capable last year. The rest of the guys in this category are unlikely to start unless the one or two guys ahead of them get injured. Some have had more chances than others, but none of them are likely to be starters on playoff teams at any point in their careers.

 

Projecting the noteworthy rookies:

Bortles -- Likely to start at some point in 2014, has the physical tools to be a Tier 2/3 kind of guy in a few years. He'll probably be unremarkable if/when he plays this year, but the Jags have added some serious offensive weapons (pun intended) the last couple of years, and I think Bortles might be in a good situation.

Manziel -- The Browns are talking about an extension for Hoyer, and he's the projected starter. Manziel might not play at all in 2014, if Hoyer picks up where he left off last year. However, they spent a first rounder on him, so it's likely that they anticipate him taking some snaps at some point this year. I have questions about his playing style and ability to hold up physically, but he can make plays with his arm and his legs. I think he's a Tier 3 kind of guy, who might have some magic for a while, but ultimately won't be more than a pretty good QB.

Bridgewater -- He'll probably play this season as well, and I'm kind of "meh" on him overall. Not a great arm, not very big or athletic, but he can put up numbers, he throws with nice touch, and he takes good care of the ball. The latter is why he can earn the trust of his coaches, but I don't know how far he'll go in his career. I see a low ceiling for him, maybe Tier 3 at best.

Garappolo / Savage -- Probably won't play, but might be serious Tier 3 candidates in the right situation. Both have a little bit of twinkle to them, but will have to fight and scrap just to make final rosters.

McCarron -- I don't think very much of his pro prospects.

Mettenberger -- Great arm, bit of a slinger, probably would have been drafted a lot higher if not for injuries. Carson Palmer is a frequent comparison, and I think it fits, but Palmer was a first rounder and got to play right away. A slow approach and good development could turn him into a solid starter.

 

 

All JMO. Let me know what you think.

I would also move Brady and Manning to Tier 1 alone and then put Rodgers and Brees in Tier 2 elite. I think you have to recognize the greatest of Brady and Manning as they will not just be HoFers, they will go down as 2 of the greats to have ever played.

 

I was going to comment on the next tier and say I don't like Ryan, Eli Manning or Luck one tier below the elites but maybe it is more the title of the tier. I think the second tier is more Big Ben and Rivers. I also might put Rodgers and Brees in this and just rename it the established, pro bowl QBs.

 

I think Luck belongs with Wilson, Kaep, Newton and RG as the new wave tier. Even though Wilson has the ring and Kaep has made the SB and NFCCG a couple of times, this is the group poised to take over the NFL in the next five years.

[BOTT]

Sure. All he has to do is throw 15 picks and he will have cut his total in half. He will be the obvious choice. ;)

Kevin Killdrive retired, I'm think a new OC will help out Eli quite a bit.

[Dustin]

Funny that this comes up a day later on ESPN. 26 league insider give their opinions.

http://m.espn.go.com/nfl/story?storyId=11156302&src=desktop&ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_Sando_QBTiers

You need to be an insider. Luck is ranked 5th.

[Valpo2004]

Wilson and Eli ranked too high IMO.  

 

If Newton gets his team into the playoffs this year he deserves to be up there.  

 

Kap too high

 

Bradford too low

 

My ranking would be: (? indicates that player could easily move depending on play this year.)

 

Elite: They put up big numbers their teams lean on them and they are in the playoffs nearly every year no matter what happens to their team.

Brady, P Manning, Rodgers, Brees

 

High quality Franchise: Their teams rely on them and they can get some below average and average teams to the playoffs.  They also put up strong numbers.

Ryan, Rivers, Roethlisburger, Luck, Newton

 

Average Franchise: Put a good team around them and playoffs.  A great team around them and they can win a SB.

Flacco, Cutler, Dalton, Smith, Tannehill, Foles?, Kap, Romo, Stafford, Bradford, Wilson?

 

Journeyman: With a really good team they can get you to the playoffs, but they could only win a SB with a truly exceptional team.

Hoyer? Fitzpatrick, Campbell, Locker, Glennon, RG3?, McCown, Schaub, Henne, 

 

Everyone else is career backup, still learning, hasn't gotten their shot yet or out of the league.  

 

Wilson and Kap still don't impress me that much.  It still feels like all they have to do in most games is "not lose".  Maybe they made some big plays in a few games to get a win, but in the end they arn't doing what the other QB's have to do which is to win pretty much every game for their team.  

[amfootball]

Funny that this comes up a day later on ESPN. 26 league insider give their opinions.

http://m.espn.go.com/nfl/story?storyId=11156302&src=desktop&ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_Sando_QBTiers

You need to be an insider. Luck is ranked 5th.

Superman's list was better than this. No surprise there though given it is ESPN.

[Superman]

There was a thread on it from last year on his late game performances, http://forums.colts.com/topic/20944-aaron-rodgers-is-not-a-clutch-qb/

Rodgers ranks dead last in terms of percentage of games won late and that is not just against the elites but against current and past QBs. Brady is first on the list and Manning is fifth.

 

Like I said, I think he is a great QB but he is still somewhat riding 2010. He may not have had bad games against the niners but he has not done enough to win them either and I realize he has had some had defenses but last year his defense played well the whole game and still he was not able to do enough at the end to win.

 

Not in my mind. His 2010 was pretty good, but 2011 and 2012 were the two best consecutive years of QBing in league history, IMO. Manning's 2012 and 2013 have more volume, but I think Rodgers' two years were more efficient, and just as dangerous. In short, I think Rodgers got better after 2010; you ought to know that I don't think he's one of the best QBs in the league just because he won a SB four years ago.

 

I also reject the reasoning that says he hasn't done enough against the Niners. There are the general reasons -- QBs get too much blanket credit/blame for wins/losses -- but more specifically, Kaepernick destroyed the Packers' defense in both playoff games recently. And last year, after the Packers tied the game at 20, the defense couldn't get off the field in over five minutes, and gave up the game-winning FG as time ran off (the Niners milked the clock at the end; if they needed a TD, they had plenty of opportunity to get it). 

 

From the thread about Rodgers not being clutch:

Of course, some of the 26 losses speak well for him. He has put Green Bay ahead seven times in the fourth quarter when trailing, only for the team to go on to lose the game. The defense is certainly deserving of blame for this.

Green Bay has allowed 20 game-winning drives since 2008, which is third-most in the league over that span. Last season, there was the Hail Mary to Seattle's Golden Tate  on that game's final play. In Week 1 this year, Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a 28-24 lead, only to watchColin Kaepernick and the Niners score the game's last 10 points for a San Francisco win.

 

 

Without getting too deep into it, those few lines illustrate why it's a mistake to try to judge QBs based on their win/loss record in close games, or lack of late game comebacks. There are a lot of variables to consider. Maybe he's not as storied as Brady and Manning in late game situations, but I don't agree with the generic criticism. IMO

[Valpo2004]

1. Rodgers, Manning, Brees - God tier

2. Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Roethlisberger- Great

2.5. Romo - Romo

3. Wilson, Luck, Kaepernick, Foles, Cutler, Newton, Tannehill - Great/Good either young or inconsistent

4. Stafford, Dalton, Alex Smith, Eli, RG3, McCown- Meh

5. Flacco, Schaub, Palmer, Locker, Vick, Bradford- Below average

6. EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, Fitzpatrick, Cassell, Henne - Bad

None of the tiers are in order btw

 

The thing I like about this is Romo gets his own category.  Because he's the only guy who can put up huge numbers but not make his team into winners.  

[Superman]

I would also move Brady and Manning to Tier 1 alone and then put Rodgers and Brees in Tier 2 elite. I think you have to recognize the greatest of Brady and Manning as they will not just be HoFers, they will go down as 2 of the greats to have ever played.

 

I was going to comment on the next tier and say I don't like Ryan, Eli Manning or Luck one tier below the elites but maybe it is more the title of the tier. I think the second tier is more Big Ben and Rivers. I also might put Rodgers and Brees in this and just rename it the established, pro bowl QBs.

 

I think Luck belongs with Wilson, Kaep, Newton and RG as the new wave tier. Even though Wilson has the ring and Kaep has made the SB and NFCCG a couple of times, this is the group poised to take over the NFL in the next five years.

 

I didn't intend for my rankings to be based on all-time. Of course, the criteria are loosely defined, if defined at all. My thinking is that, right now, there's no real separation between the top four. What they've done for the last decade and a half isn't really what's driving my rankings; two years ago, I couldn't have ranked Manning. To me, it's more about who are the best QBs in the game right now, and who has the resume to support it. JMO

 

As for what you say about Wilson and Kaep, I'm personally not as taken with postseason success as a measure of how good a QB you are. Right now, I'd take Matt Ryan over Wilson or Newton.

[Superman]

The thing I like about this is Romo gets his own category.  Because he's the only guy who can put up huge numbers but not make his team into winners.  

 

Stafford also.

[amfootball]

Not in my mind. His 2010 was pretty good, but 2011 and 2012 were the two best consecutive years of QBing in league history, IMO. Manning's 2012 and 2013 have more volume, but I think Rodgers' two years were more efficient, and just as dangerous. In short, I think Rodgers got better after 2010; you ought to know that I don't think he's one of the best QBs in the league just because he won a SB four years ago.

 

I also reject the reasoning that says he hasn't done enough against the Niners. There are the general reasons -- QBs get too much blanket credit/blame for wins/losses -- but more specifically, Kaepernick destroyed the Packers' defense in both playoff games recently. And last year, after the Packers tied the game at 20, the defense couldn't get off the field in over five minutes, and gave up the game-winning FG as time ran off (the Niners milked the clock at the end; if they needed a TD, they had plenty of opportunity to get it). 

 

From the thread about Rodgers not being clutch:

 

Without getting too deep into it, those few lines illustrate why it's a mistake to try to judge QBs based on their win/loss record in close games, or lack of late game comebacks. There are a lot of variables to consider. Maybe he's not as storied as Brady and Manning in late game situations, but I don't agree with the generic criticism. IMO

I have said that I think Rodgers is great but I just would not put him in the same tier as Brady and Manning. I think his fourth quarter woes are pretty significant while at the same time acknowledging that at times his defense has let him down. Of course the same argument can be held for Brady and Manning as Brady would have two more rings if his defense could have held the lead at the end of both his SB losses and of course we have recounted many times up here the playoff losses Manning has endured when he has had the lead late. You can disagree with the generic criticism of his late game performances but it does not change the fact that he is dead last and to me anyways that holds weight when judging an elite QB and comparing to Brady and Manning.

 

I think statistically he has been great and his numbers show that so no argument there but stats are only part of the equation when judging a QB to be elite. I think he needs to show more in the post-season as well.

[NewColtsFan]

Superman's list was better than this. No surprise there though given it is ESPN.

 

Ummmm....     In a word......   No.

 

The list was not the opinion of some ESPN writer.

 

The list was the collective opinions of 26 NFL front office execs.    GM's, player personnel,  head coaches,  coordinators, position coaches and so on.

 

All the writer did was compile information and write-it up.

 

Again,  this is not a story based on the opinion of some ESPN writer.

 

The number of people on this website who comment without bothering to actually even look at the story they're talking about is sometimes staggering.........

 

Further,  given that the list has YOUR QUARTERBACK,  Tom Brady, (you're a Patriots fan, correct?)  ranked first overall,  you would think you'd be happy with the outcome?    But no.    You see 4 letters -- ESPN, and you go sideways....  (smh)

 

The writer explains below:

 

 

I asked 26 league insiders to grade every projected starting quarterback on a 1-5 scale, with "one" reserved for the best and "five" for the worst.  Eight general managers, two former GMs, four pro personnel evaluators, seven coordinators, two head coaches, two position coaches and a top executive participated, attacking the project with gusto almost across the board.

[Superman]

For what it's worth,  here's a list that will look not too dissimilar from Superman's list....

 

The article is from NFL.com...  the writer is a guy named Chris Wesseling...   he's a staff writer,  I just don't know him well enough to have a good feel for him....   but I didn't see any name that looked too far out of place....   it's worth a click on the link and a look see...

 

Enjoy!

 

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000362711/article/aaron-rodgers-tops-preseason-list-of-nfls-best-qbs

 

I forgot about Derek Carr... I knew I was forgetting someone. Pretty similar comments to Blake Bortles, I guess.

[amfootball]

Ummmm....     In a word......   No.

 

The list was not the opinion of some ESPN writer.

 

The list was the collective opinions of 26 NFL front office execs.    GM's, player personnel,  head coaches,  coordinators, position coaches and so on.

 

All the writer did was compile information and write-it up.

 

Again,  this is not a story based on the opinion of some ESPN writer.

 

The number of people on this website who comment without bothering to actually even look at the story they're talking about is sometimes staggering.........

 

Further,  given that the list has YOUR QUARTERBACK,  Tom Brady, (you're a Patriots fan, correct?)  ranked first overall,  you would think you'd be happy with the outcome?    But no.    You see 4 letters -- ESPN, and you go sideways....  (smh)

 

The writer explains below:

 

 

I asked 26 league insiders to grade every projected starting quarterback on a 1-5 scale, with "one" reserved for the best and "five" for the worst.  Eight general managers, two former GMs, four pro personnel evaluators, seven coordinators, two head coaches, two position coaches and a top executive participated, attacking the project with gusto almost across the board.

I am not ESPN insider so I could not read it. My mistake. I thought it was the typical ESPN ranking where they do it more on popularity and fan hoopla. Not sure if it is against the rules of the forum to post the article in its entirety but I would love to read it.

[Dustin]

Superman's list was better than this. No surprise there though given it is ESPN.

ESPN didn't rank them.

[sweetsurrender]

I didn't intend for my rankings to be based on all-time. Of course, the criteria are loosely defined, if defined at all. My thinking is that, right now, there's no real separation between the top four. What they've done for the last decade and a half isn't really what's driving my rankings; two years ago, I couldn't have ranked Manning. To me, it's more about who are the best QBs in the game right now, and who has the resume to support it. JMO

 

As for what you say about Wilson and Kaep, I'm personally not as taken with postseason success as a measure of how good a QB you are. Right now, I'd take Matt Ryan over Wilson or Newton.

Sure, I get the criteria is loose. If we are judging just based on who I want QBing my team this season then it is still Manning and Brady first. If we are talking long term then I would go with one of the new wave QBs - Luck, Kaep, Wilson.

 

I am not that taken with post-season success either which is why I said I would put Wilson and Kaep with Newton, RG and Luck even though they have had more post-season success than the other three. I don't see that big of a difference between those 5 with maybe RG being a wild card as he really struggled last year but I think that had more to do with the coaching and FO than him.

[Superman]

I have said that I think Rodgers is great but I just would not put him in the same tier as Brady and Manning. I think his fourth quarter woes are pretty significant while at the same time acknowledging that at times his defense has let him down. Of course the same argument can be held for Brady and Manning as Brady would have two more rings if his defense could have held the lead at the end of both his SB losses and of course we have recounted many times up here the playoff losses Manning has endured when he has had the lead late. You can disagree with the generic criticism of his late game performances but it does not change the fact that he is dead last and to me anyways that holds weight when judging an elite QB and comparing to Brady and Manning.

 

I think statistically he has been great and his numbers show that so no argument there but stats are only part of the equation when judging a QB to be elite. I think he needs to show more in the post-season as well.

 

I won't give you the typical arguments; you know those already.

 

I will point you here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RodgAa00/gamelog/post/ Rodgers has postseason success. Let's not lose sight of that. We're not talking about pre-2003 Manning, or pre-2012 Matt Ryan. Rodgers has actually been excellent in the postseason. Ironically, the Packers got a win in the one bad playoff game Rodgers has on his record, kind of illustrating why I think it's folly to reduce a player's legacy to his postseason results.

 

To each his own. I personally think Rodgers belongs in that tier, and I think it's a no-brainer.