Will Reggie pass up Marvin to become the Colts all-time leading receiver in 2014?

[ColtsBTM12]

My apologies.....

 

I missed your reference to having too many weapons.

 

If I had seen that, I wouldn't have bothered.....

 

My bad.....    sometimes my eyes don't work as well when my head is stuck up my own ***....      you know?!      :slaphead:

No need to apologize, it's all good

[GoColts8818]

I would agree. If he still wants to play after this year while he's still racking up that kind of production there's no reason Ryan Grigson shouldn't try to get him resigned. I don't think Reggie would want to be anywhere else, especially with the Colts having a great young quarterback and turning into a possible Super Bowl contender.

the question will be will the Colts extend him an offer. The natural reaction is to think well of course but if he struggles coming back from this injury and guys like Holton, Moncrief, and Rodgers keep coming on and Nicks plays well enough to get a second contract the Colts might elect to part ways with Reggie after this year.

[NewColtsFan]

I've always found this to be an interesting stat line, as a point of reference, from NE in 2011:

 

Wes Welker 122 1,569 12.9 99 9

Rob Gronkowski 90 1,327 14.7 52 17

Aaron Hernandez 79 910 11.5 46 7

 

I'm not suggesting that the Colts will have stat lines like this - but it's a good example of how concentrated the stats can be while still having a very effective offense.

 

If.....we are over some of the growing pains that our offense went through last year, we could see Luck's completion percentage rise to around 65% on about 600 throws.  We could readily have 2 WR catch 80-90 balls, another over 65, and 100 balls to Fleener/Allen combined or any such combinations once there are close to 400 receptions to spread around.  

 

Reggie catching 85 - 1100 - 8 is still a pretty doable deal if he is healthy - and in the slot, the catch volume could easily balloon to 100. 

 

Good post, ZT....

 

So,  since you seem to be interested,  let's talk numbers and let's assume you're correct.    Andrew will throw 600 times and have 400 completions.    I'm going to show you how hard it still is for the touches to work out for everyone....

 

-- Wayne/TYH/Hicks....                         200 receptions...  (roughly 70/65/65)

-- Allen/Fleener....                                 100 receptions....  (roughly 55/45)

-- Rogers/Moncrief/Brazil or Whalen...   50 receptions.... (roughly 20/15/15)

-- All RB's/FB/3rd TE....                          50 receptions.... (roughly 35-40 for RB's and 10-15 for the FB/TE)

 

 

There's 400 receptions, which I think is the max anyone could hope for.    And even with 400 receptions, I think Reggie will have trouble getting 80...    is it possible the other two will have less than 65?   Sure.   But I don't think it's likely.

 

I think 100 receptions for the tight ends is just about spot on.  

 

50 receptions for Rogers, Moncrief and the 6th WR is 1 per player per game.    One.     Doesn't seem very generous, so it seems reasonable.    Could those 3 catch 10 less over the season?   Yes.    It's possible, I'm just not sure it's likely.   

 

And 50 receptions for the 6 players who are the 4 RB's, the 1 FB and the 3rd TE is 3 a game for the group of 6 players.

So, a guess of 10-15 for the FB and the last TE seems about right...  leaving 35-40 for the 4 RB's...   that's less than 3 per game for that group.     All seems reasonable....

 

Now,  injuries will change the equation....   absolutely no doubt...  the formula will change depending on who gets hurt and how many games they miss??    But I think the goal is to spread the love out and be diversified....

 

Just some food for thought over the dog days of NFL summer!     

[Gavin]

Good post, ZT....

 

So,  since you seem to be interested,  let's talk numbers and let's assume you're correct.    Andrew will throw 600 times and have 400 completions.    I'm going to show you how hard it still is for the touches to work out for everyone....

 

-- Wayne/TYH/Hicks....                         200 receptions...  (roughly 70/65/65)

-- Allen/Fleener....                                 100 receptions....  (roughly 55/45)

-- Rogers/Moncrief/Brazil or Whalen...   50 receptions.... (roughly 20/15/15)

-- All RB's/FB/3rd TE....                          50 receptions.... (roughly 35-40 for RB's and 10-15 for the FB/TE)

 

 

There's 400 receptions, which I think is the max anyone could hope for.    And even with 400 receptions, I think Reggie will have trouble getting 80...    is it possible the other two will have less than 65?   Sure.   But I don't think it's likely.

 

I think 100 receptions for the tight ends is just about spot on.  

 

50 receptions for Rogers, Moncrief and the 6th WR is 1 per player per game.    One.     Doesn't seem very generous, so it seems reasonable.    Could those 3 catch 10 less over the season?   Yes.    It's possible, I'm just not sure it's likely.   

 

And 50 receptions for the 6 players who are the 4 RB's, the 1 FB and the 3rd TE is 3 a game for the group of 6 players.

So, a guess of 10-15 for the FB and the last TE seems about right...  leaving 35-40 for the 4 RB's...   that's less than 3 per game for that group.     All seems reasonable....

 

Now,  injuries will change the equation....   absolutely no doubt...  the formula will change depending on who gets hurt and how many games they miss??    But I think the goal is to spread the love out and be diversified....

 

Just some food for thought over the dog days of NFL summer!     

Excellent job on the numbers I think

[braveheartcolt]

It's not conjecture. There's plenty of evidence that Nicks and Fleener can produce, and the questions about Wayne and Allen are only with regard to injury recovery.

I was referring to our WR's only, so I believe it is conjecture in that context. We do not know how Nicks wil turn out as a Colt. I'm very hopeful like most, but he's done nothing in my opinion to be a threat to Reggie at this stage.

[ColtsBTM12]

the question will be will the Colts extend him an offer. The natural reaction is to think well of course but if he struggles coming back from this injury and guys like Holton, Moncrief, and Rodgers keep coming on and Nicks plays well enough to get a second contract the Colts might elect to part ways with Reggie after this year.

I realize that but if Reggie comes back and racks up 97 catches and over 1000 yards then who wouldn't want to resign him for a couple more seasons. He has a ton of experience and the leadership to help bring along some of those younger guys that you mentioned. 

[braveheartcolt]

I realize that but if Reggie comes back and racks up 97 catches and over 1000 yards then who wouldn't want to resign him for a couple more seasons. He has a ton of experience and the leadership to help bring along some of those younger guys that you mentioned.

Agreed. Well said. He's an honest guy, and he'll know himself when it's time to retire. If he heals 100%, I think he can go for at least 2 more seasons.....

[GoColts8818]

I realize that but if Reggie comes back and racks up 97 catches and over 1000 yards then who wouldn't want to resign him for a couple more seasons. He has a ton of experience and the leadership to help bring along some of those younger guys that you mentioned.

there are a lot "ifs" to be answered about WRs this year long before any kind of decision is going to be made on Reggie. However, if they all play well three are already under contract in Hilton, Rodgers, and Moncrief. If they play well and Brazill takes another step forward There is a chance the Colts could let Nicks and Wayne walk if they are happy with the young guys regardless of Nicks or Wayne's performance this season but this is all speculation on a lot of ifs we just don't know the answers to right now.

I want Reggie to retire a Colt and hope he still has two or three more good years for the blue and white I just don't think it's as simple as Reggie plays well the Colts have to keep him I think there are a lot moving parts that have to settle to make the call on Reggie after thid season.

[ztboiler]

Good post, ZT....

 

So,  since you seem to be interested,  let's talk numbers and let's assume you're correct.    Andrew will throw 600 times and have 400 completions.    I'm going to show you how hard it still is for the touches to work out for everyone....

 

-- Wayne/TYH/Hicks....                         200 receptions...  (roughly 70/65/65)

-- Allen/Fleener....                                 100 receptions....  (roughly 55/45)

-- Rogers/Moncrief/Brazil or Whalen...   50 receptions.... (roughly 20/15/15)

-- All RB's/FB/3rd TE....                          50 receptions.... (roughly 35-40 for RB's and 10-15 for the FB/TE)

 

 

There's 400 receptions, which I think is the max anyone could hope for.    And even with 400 receptions, I think Reggie will have trouble getting 80...    is it possible the other two will have less than 65?   Sure.   But I don't think it's likely.

 

I think 100 receptions for the tight ends is just about spot on.  

 

50 receptions for Rogers, Moncrief and the 6th WR is 1 per player per game.    One.     Doesn't seem very generous, so it seems reasonable.    Could those 3 catch 10 less over the season?   Yes.    It's possible, I'm just not sure it's likely.   

 

And 50 receptions for the 6 players who are the 4 RB's, the 1 FB and the 3rd TE is 3 a game for the group of 6 players.

So, a guess of 10-15 for the FB and the last TE seems about right...  leaving 35-40 for the 4 RB's...   that's less than 3 per game for that group.     All seems reasonable....

 

Now,  injuries will change the equation....   absolutely no doubt...  the formula will change depending on who gets hurt and how many games they miss??    But I think the goal is to spread the love out and be diversified....

 

Just some food for thought over the dog days of NFL summer!     

There are plenty of reasons to project numbers similar to what you have there.  In fact, we completed balls to the backs about 75 times last year, and I don't see that number going down.  I expect it to inch up.  If that is the case and we use the tight ends like we should then the stat line will look more like Green Bay's of 2012:

 

Randall Cobb 80 954 11.9 39 8

James Jones 64 784 12.3 49 14

Jermichael Finley 61 667 10.9 40 2

Jordy Nelson 49 745 15.2 73 7

Greg Jennings 36 366 10.2 45 4

 

That said, I think there is a chance that the presence of such balance creates very easy looks for Reggie out of the slot.  Reggie had 38 for 503 thru 6 games last year.  It is still a good bet that Reggie will catch around 90 balls for over 1000 yards if he is healthy.  That is the direction I lean - and numbers like that will still promote a diverse attack.

[Superman]

I was referring to our WR's only, so I believe it is conjecture in that context. We do not know how Nicks wil turn out as a Colt. I'm very hopeful like most, but he's done nothing in my opinion to be a threat to Reggie at this stage.

 

Speculation? Yeah. I don't think it's conjecture, though. Nicks has always been a weapon. How dangerous he'll be is a different story, and that's kind of what we're talking about. But I think it's safe to assume that Nicks, if healthy, will be productive.

[Superman]

Good post, ZT....

 

So,  since you seem to be interested,  let's talk numbers and let's assume you're correct.    Andrew will throw 600 times and have 400 completions.    I'm going to show you how hard it still is for the touches to work out for everyone....

 

-- Wayne/TYH/Hicks....                         200 receptions...  (roughly 70/65/65)

-- Allen/Fleener....                                 100 receptions....  (roughly 55/45)

-- Rogers/Moncrief/Brazil or Whalen...   50 receptions.... (roughly 20/15/15)

-- All RB's/FB/3rd TE....                          50 receptions.... (roughly 35-40 for RB's and 10-15 for the FB/TE)

 

 

There's 400 receptions, which I think is the max anyone could hope for.    And even with 400 receptions, I think Reggie will have trouble getting 80...    is it possible the other two will have less than 65?   Sure.   But I don't think it's likely.

 

I think 100 receptions for the tight ends is just about spot on.  

 

50 receptions for Rogers, Moncrief and the 6th WR is 1 per player per game.    One.     Doesn't seem very generous, so it seems reasonable.    Could those 3 catch 10 less over the season?   Yes.    It's possible, I'm just not sure it's likely.   

 

And 50 receptions for the 6 players who are the 4 RB's, the 1 FB and the 3rd TE is 3 a game for the group of 6 players.

So, a guess of 10-15 for the FB and the last TE seems about right...  leaving 35-40 for the 4 RB's...   that's less than 3 per game for that group.     All seems reasonable....

 

Now,  injuries will change the equation....   absolutely no doubt...  the formula will change depending on who gets hurt and how many games they miss??    But I think the goal is to spread the love out and be diversified....

 

Just some food for thought over the dog days of NFL summer!     

 

My beef is that I don't think our TEs will combine for 100 catches. And if they do, I don't think it will be at the expense of our #1 WR. He'd still produce. The #2 and #3 WRs would give up catches, I think, not the #1.

 

So I'd adjust your projections in one of two ways:

 

Scenario #1:

WR1/WR2/WR3  --  220 receptions  (90/75/55)

TE1/TE2  --  80 receptions  (45/35)

 

Scenario #2:

WR1/WR2/WR3  --  200 receptions  (90/60/50)

TE1/TE2  --  100 receptions  (55/45)

[Superman]

There are plenty of reasons to project numbers similar to what you have there.  In fact, we completed balls to the backs about 75 times last year, and I don't see that number going down.  I expect it to inch up.  If that is the case and we use the tight ends like we should then the stat line will look more like Green Bay's of 2012:

 

Randall Cobb 80 954 11.9 39 8

James Jones 64 784 12.3 49 14

Jermichael Finley 61 667 10.9 40 2

Jordy Nelson 49 745 15.2 73 7

Greg Jennings 36 366 10.2 45 4

 

That said, I think there is a chance that the presence of such balance creates very easy looks for Reggie out of the slot.  Reggie had 38 for 503 thru 6 games last year.  It is still a good bet that Reggie will catch around 90 balls for over 1000 yards if he is healthy.  That is the direction I lean - and numbers like that will still promote a diverse attack.

 

The difference with the 2012 Packers is that they only got one TE involved in the passing game. Their other TEs combined for 16 receptions. That's 77 total to TEs. Greg Jennings also missed half the season, and Jordy Nelson missed a few games as well. Hard to point to their season as a prototype for how we should distribute the ball.

[marcesue]

If Reggie is healthy enough to play like he did before he was hurt, I think it is very likely that he will surpass Marvin Harrison's record of pass receptions.  We need to keep Reggie healthy now so he does not have to become part of the coaching staff on the sidelines again.   I know Reggie is in his 30's but he is a young 30 something (38, I think).   Keeping him healthy as with all the other players and the coaching staff, we need everyone healthy including Mr. Irsay for the Colts organization to run like a well oiled machine, and end up on top in the Superbowl in the near future, 

[ztboiler]

The difference with the 2012 Packers is that they only got one TE involved in the passing game. Their other TEs combined for 16 receptions. That's 77 total to TEs. Greg Jennings also missed half the season, and Jordy Nelson missed a few games as well. Hard to point to their season as a prototype for how we should distribute the ball.

 

Not really intending to point to another team's season as the prototype for distribution - though I could see why it looks that way - but rather that there is history to suggest balance (Packers 2012) as well as imbalance (Patriots 2011) among effective offensive equations.  Our identity is far from crystallized, and we are, as a fanbase, probably too quick to look for one due to our recent history.

[Superman]

Not really intending to point to another team's season as the prototype for distribution - though I could see why it looks that way - but rather that there is history to suggest balance (Packers 2012) as well as imbalance (Patriots 2011) among effective offensive equations.  Our identity is far from crystallized, and we are, as a fanbase, probably too quick to look for one due to our recent history.

 

Good deal. 

 

I was just saying that I don't think the Packers were as balanced as they were for any reason other than injuries. Maybe they still don't have a 90 catch #1, but their two best receivers were hurt and less effective than usual. 

[ztboiler]

Good deal. 

 

I was just saying that I don't think the Packers were as balanced as they were for any reason other than injuries. Maybe they still don't have a 90 catch #1, but their two best receivers were hurt and less effective than usual. 

 

Agreed.  Those injuries were a factor in 2012.  However, if you look at 2011 and 2010, balance is a trend for them.  In their dominant 2011 campaign, no receiver reached 70 receptions.  Jordy and Jennings led the way with 68 and 67.  They were brutally efficient.

 

The Packers are a good case study for how to field an effective receiving core for a franchise QB without getting salary cap heavy in franchise WR's.

[ColtsBTM12]

there are a lot "ifs" to be answered about WRs this year long before any kind of decision is going to be made on Reggie. However, if they all play well three are already under contract in Hilton, Rodgers, and Moncrief. If they play well and Brazill takes another step forward There is a chance the Colts could let Nicks and Wayne walk if they are happy with the young guys regardless of Nicks or Wayne's performance this season but this is all speculation on a lot of ifs we just don't know the answers to right now.

I want Reggie to retire a Colt and hope he still has two or three more good years for the blue and white I just don't think it's as simple as Reggie plays well the Colts have to keep him I think there are a lot moving parts that have to settle to make the call on Reggie after thid season.

Barring injuries to our WRs I don't think Rodgers and Moncrief will see enough playing time to have any impact on what decision will be made on Reggie. Hilton, Wayne, and Nicks will most likely see the bulk of the playing time and I would be shocked if the Colts don't resign either Nicks or Wayne next offseason.

[James]

Yes, Reggie will surpass Marvin in both receptions and yards. Not TDs, but Reggie doesn't have to. He's already the greater player of the two. Why? 

 

Because you cant just look at stats.

 

Marvin was always shut down in the playoffs - where you have to step up! That's how many people remember him. Absolute monster in the reg. season, while very mediocre in the playoffs.

 

Wayne: 17 games, 83 catches, 1128 yard, 9 TDs

Harrison: 16 games, 65 catches, 833 yards, 2 TDs

 

Even TY already has 1/4 of Marvin's yards, 1/6 of his catches and as many TDs. He will likely surpass him in a couple seasons.

[IkeAramba]

Think this might be a tricky question.  If he's not the Reggie we are used to he's likely gone at the end of the season. If he performs at the level we are used to he'll probably go close on the catches and yardage but is likely to get offered another season or two.  The one wild card would be if he performs well and gets a nice shiny ring at the end of the season, he may decide to retire at the top of his game rather than chase the records.

[Ryan Pelley]

I think Reggie plays at least one more season after this upcoming year. Which in doing so, realistically, he has a pretty good shot at over taking Marvin on receptions and yards.

 

It's a shame that he tore his ACL last season. Looking at the all-time receiving lists, he was very well on his way to having another stellar season and on pace to moving into the Top 6 in receptions and Top 8 in yards, with a very realistic shot at becoming #2 behind Jerry Rice in receiving yards all time and #3 behind Rice and Tony Gonzalez in receptions.

 

Now after the injury, who knows how he will produce and where he will end up on those lists now. Really hope he's able to get up there. Crazy to think that someone with these kind of stats really doesn't get much attention or praise that he deserves from the national media. But oh well, at least we know and we love the guy.

[Bbswatching]

I dont see it in 2014.  But if he can play for 2 or 3 more years.  no question.  He might get the yards, but doubtful with all the targets we have now.  

[kjyb]

Good post, ZT....

 

So,  since you seem to be interested,  let's talk numbers and let's assume you're correct.    Andrew will throw 600 times and have 400 completions.    I'm going to show you how hard it still is for the touches to work out for everyone....

 

-- Wayne/TYH/Hicks....                         200 receptions...  (roughly 70/65/65)

-- Allen/Fleener....                                 100 receptions....  (roughly 55/45)

-- Rogers/Moncrief/Brazil or Whalen...   50 receptions.... (roughly 20/15/15)

-- All RB's/FB/3rd TE....                          50 receptions.... (roughly 35-40 for RB's and 10-15 for the FB/TE)

 

 

There's 400 receptions, which I think is the max anyone could hope for.    And even with 400 receptions, I think Reggie will have trouble getting 80...    is it possible the other two will have less than 65?   Sure.   But I don't think it's likely.

 

I think 100 receptions for the tight ends is just about spot on.  

 

50 receptions for Rogers, Moncrief and the 6th WR is 1 per player per game.    One.     Doesn't seem very generous, so it seems reasonable.    Could those 3 catch 10 less over the season?   Yes.    It's possible, I'm just not sure it's likely.   

 

And 50 receptions for the 6 players who are the 4 RB's, the 1 FB and the 3rd TE is 3 a game for the group of 6 players.

So, a guess of 10-15 for the FB and the last TE seems about right...  leaving 35-40 for the 4 RB's...   that's less than 3 per game for that group.     All seems reasonable....

 

Now,  injuries will change the equation....   absolutely no doubt...  the formula will change depending on who gets hurt and how many games they miss??    But I think the goal is to spread the love out and be diversified....

 

Just some food for thought over the dog days of NFL summer!     

nicely put

[Gabriel Alexander Morillo]

Yes, Reggie will surpass Marvin in both receptions and yards. Not TDs, but Reggie doesn't have to. He's already the greater player of the two. Why?

Because you cant just look at stats.

Marvin was always shut down in the playoffs - where you have to step up! That's how many people remember him. Absolute monster in the reg. season, while very mediocre in the playoffs.

Wayne: 17 games, 83 catches, 1128 yard, 9 TDs

Harrison: 16 games, 65 catches, 833 yards, 2 TDs

Even TY already has 1/4 of Marvin's yards, 1/6 of his catches and as many TDs. He will likely surpass him in a couple seasons.

Just playing devil's advocate here but if were cutting out Marvin's regular season numbers and saying him being bad/not asgood in the playoffs makes him "worse" than Reggie then What is stopping is from using that logic in regards to post season Peyton Manning? I'm just curious

[ColtsHappy]

Yes, Reggie will surpass Marvin in both receptions and yards. Not TDs, but Reggie doesn't have to. He's already the greater player of the two. Why? 

 

Because you cant just look at stats.

 

Marvin was always shut down in the playoffs - where you have to step up! That's how many people remember him. Absolute monster in the reg. season, while very mediocre in the playoffs.

 

Wayne: 17 games, 83 catches, 1128 yard, 9 TDs

Harrison: 16 games, 65 catches, 833 yards, 2 TDs

 

Even TY already has 1/4 of Marvin's yards, 1/6 of his catches and as many TDs. He will likely surpass him in a couple seasons.

So nice to have a voice of reason on this thread.

 

Nice post. Your stats do a nice job of confirming my gut feeling.

 

Thank you.

 

ColtsHappy