Will Hill Is now available... should we try to get him? (merge)

[Superman]

They don't "see" anything in him.  PFF has him ranked high so he must be a good safety.  

 

Personally, I like football analytics but, IMO, PFF has never proven very accurate in it's player evaluations.

 

The condescension is stroooonnngggg with this one...

 

I've watched plenty of Giants games. I know that Will Hill is a good player.

 

As for PFF, all grading is subjective, but they have their merits. Of all things, the way they grade players in coverage is probably the best thing they do, aside from their snap charting. No, they're not perfect, but you don't watch and rewatch every game to chart and rate a player's performance, and neither do I. So again, they have their merits.

[Dustin]

Why does everyone see in this guy?

A guy who was a top 5 safety last season.

[Coffeedrinker]

The condescension is stroooonnngggg with this one...

 

I've watched plenty of Giants games. I know that Will Hill is a good player.

 

As for PFF, all grading is subjective, but they have their merits. Of all things, the way they grade players in coverage is probably the best thing they do, aside from their snap charting. No, they're not perfect, but you don't watch and rewatch every game to chart and rate a player's performance, and neither do I. So again, they have their merits.

 Yes it is.  

 

And no I don't and that is why I like analytics like I said I've just never found PFF to be accurate.  

[Superman]

 Yes it is.  

 

And no I don't and that is why I like analytics like I said I've just never found PFF to be accurate.  

 

Ratings are subjective, so "accurate" is kind of a fuzzy target, IMO. But if you don't watch every game they rate, it's hard to nitpick their accuracy. How could you, really?

 

What I like about coverage ratings, though, is that it's easier to determine what the assignments are, who is covering whom, etc., in coverage, as compared to grading linemen, for instance. Yeah, there are some nuances, and there will be blown assignments that make one player look bad when it was really someone else out of position, etc. But with All-22 (PFF goes back and re-grades every game with All-22), you can see pretty well what is happening in coverage. So I think PFF's grading system, particularly for coverage plays, is pretty strong. I don't think they do a good job grading 3-4 OLBs, particularly against the run.

 

Nothing is perfect, of course. I don't understand how our front office evaluates offensive line play sometimes. I didn't agree with assignments and rotations for a lot of players in a lot of situations back during the previous regime. It's all subjective, to a degree; who's right and who's wrong is only decided by the score, which is why we do all of this judging with the benefit of hindsight.

 

I say all of this just to point out that I don't think it's beneficial to be dismissive of PFF's ratings, even if there are specific examples that you disagree with. 

 

JMO

[The Peytonator]

Just imagine what a coach like Pagano could do with Hill. Guys would run through a brick wall for Pagano, and if Will Hill is given a 4th chance with us, a guy like Pagano is one of the few coaches that could maybe keep him in line. With Hill's talent and Pag's guidance, I don't see why we wouldn't at least try to get him in here.

 

How do these waiver things work? Has he cleared them now?

[MrNLM]

Just imagine what a coach like Pagano could do with Hill. Guys would run through a brick wall for Pagano, and if Will Hill is given a 4th chance with us, a guy like Pagano is one of the few coaches that could maybe keep him in line. With Hill's talent and Pag's guidance, I don't see why we wouldn't at least try to get him in here.

 

How do these waiver things work? Has he cleared them now?

Yes. He has cleared. I would imagine Grigs would have a look if something happened at the safety position but, with Hill being suspended for 6 games... there is no need to rush into anything.

[The Peytonator]

Yes. He has cleared. I would imagine Grigs would have a look if something happened at the safety position but, with Hill being suspended for 6 games... there is no need to rush into anything.

 

 

I would rush into this because I wouldn't want some other team to put in an offer. He's not going to get more than the minimal contract he could get, so might as well get him in Indy.

[Superman]

Yes. He has cleared. I would imagine Grigs would have a look if something happened at the safety position but, with Hill being suspended for 6 games... there is no need to rush into anything.

 

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Suspended-safety-Will-Hill-unclaimed-off-waivers.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

Says he did clear waivers unclaimed. However, I just checked the NFL.com transactions page, and they no longer list him as waived, which is weird. I know I saw his name there earlier today.  ::shrugs::

 

Edit: It also shows Jonathan Goodwin as signing with the Niners, not the Saints. So the page is probably just glitchy, or someone posted the line wrong.

[MrNLM]

I would rush into this because I wouldn't want some other team to put in an offer. He's not going to get more than the minimal contract he could get, so might as well get him in Indy.

I actually agree with this but, the majority consensus is that he dangles in waiver limbo for awhile. I hope the majority is wrong.

[The Peytonator]

I actually agree with this but, the majority consensus is that he dangles in waiver limbo for awhile. I hope the majority is wrong.

 

Yeah, you just never know sometimes with these free agents. My guess would be he doesn't stay a FA for long....he's such a low risk/high reward type of signing.

[Coffeedrinker]

Ratings are subjective, so "accurate" is kind of a fuzzy target, IMO. But if you don't watch every game they rate, it's hard to nitpick their accuracy. How could you, really?

 

Mainly it's just from seeing players that they have rated highly that aren't very good and players that they have rated low being good players.  And while I don't watch every player if there is one that is discussed on here I will go back watch that player (game rewind is a wonderful thing) and on several players what PFF rated and what I saw were quite a bit different.  For example, if a CB is beat badly and the QB underthrows the ball and the beaten CB intercepts it PFF grades that as a major win for the CB (postive points) even though I view that as a mistake by the CB and a nullifier (he nullified the bad play with the pick), so a CB should be a 0 for that play. Now if that CB then takes the INT back for a TD then it becomes a positive play because the name of the game is still scoring more points than the other team.

 

Another prime example is in the Colts vs Chiefs play off game,  I don't remember who Smith was throwing to (I think the back up RB who was wide open on a wheel route), the LBer that was supposed to be covering him was not within 5 yards.  If Smith throws a good ball it's an easy TD.  Smith overthrows the ball and now based on PFF ratings that is a negative play for Smith a negative play for the RB and a positive play for the LB(he did not give up the reception, no yards were gained, it forced a 4th down and the QB rating throwing at that LB is lowered).  When in reality that is a negative play for Smith, a positive play for the RB (he did everything correctly) and a negative play by the LB.

 

Again, I like analytics I just think there is a flaw in PFFs formulas.

[Valpo2004]

Just imagine what a coach like Pagano could do with Hill. Guys would run through a brick wall for Pagano, and if Will Hill is given a 4th chance with us, a guy like Pagano is one of the few coaches that could maybe keep him in line. With Hill's talent and Pag's guidance, I don't see why we wouldn't at least try to get him in here.

 

How do these waiver things work? Has he cleared them now?

 

As others have said he's now cleared waivers.  

 

I think the way they work is that if you are on your rookie contract when you are released you go through the waiver system.  Basically it means that any team that wants you at the same contract you were at before can put in a claim on you in the waiver system.  If only one team claims you then that team gets you.  However if multiple teams claim you it's the team with the worst current record, sort of like how the draft works.  Since next season hasn't started yet my guess is that the Texans would still be #1 on the Waiver system.

 

My guess is this guy sits in free agency until his suspension is over or almost over then a team will pick him up.  This would probably be the best for him.  The more you can convince him that his career could come to an end if he doesn't give up the weed, the better chance there is of him actually giving it up.  

[Dark Superman]

A guy who was a top 5 safety last season.

Does he play FS or SS?

[DougDew]

I fail to understand the logic behind wanting to sign a player whose personal life makes them unavailable to play games.

 

Why will he not continue to have the same personal problems after he serves his suspension?

[Superman]

Mainly it's just from seeing players that they have rated highly that aren't very good and players that they have rated low being good players.  And while I don't watch every player if there is one that is discussed on here I will go back watch that player (game rewind is a wonderful thing) and on several players what PFF rated and what I saw were quite a bit different.  For example, if a CB is beat badly and the QB underthrows the ball and the beaten CB intercepts it PFF grades that as a major win for the CB (postive points) even though I view that as a mistake by the CB and a nullifier (he nullified the bad play with the pick), so a CB should be a 0 for that play. Now if that CB then takes the INT back for a TD then it becomes a positive play because the name of the game is still scoring more points than the other team.

 

Another prime example is in the Colts vs Chiefs play off game,  I don't remember who Smith was throwing to (I think the back up RB who was wide open on a wheel route), the LBer that was supposed to be covering him was not within 5 yards.  If Smith throws a good ball it's an easy TD.  Smith overthrows the ball and now based on PFF ratings that is a negative play for Smith a negative play for the RB and a positive play for the LB(he did not give up the reception, no yards were gained, it forced a 4th down and the QB rating throwing at that LB is lowered).  When in reality that is a negative play for Smith, a positive play for the RB (he did everything correctly) and a negative play by the LB.

 

Again, I like analytics I just think there is a flaw in PFFs formulas.

 

I've looked at their FAQ and stuff, and they claim to take those things into consideration. And they don't release their play-by-play grades, so it's impossible to know exactly what grade they give a player on any given play. 

 

I don't mean to be the defender of all things PFF. Like you, I agree that there are some flaws in their grading system. But again, I think they have their merits. You weigh that against what you know about the game, and make determinations for yourself. But I think they deserve plenty of credit for their approach, and their results for the most part.

[Dustin]

Mainly it's just from seeing players that they have rated highly that aren't very good and players that they have rated low being good players.  And while I don't watch every player if there is one that is discussed on here I will go back watch that player (game rewind is a wonderful thing) and on several players what PFF rated and what I saw were quite a bit different.  For example, if a CB is beat badly and the QB underthrows the ball and the beaten CB intercepts it PFF grades that as a major win for the CB (postive points) even though I view that as a mistake by the CB and a nullifier (he nullified the bad play with the pick), so a CB should be a 0 for that play. Now if that CB then takes the INT back for a TD then it becomes a positive play because the name of the game is still scoring more points than the other team.

 

Another prime example is in the Colts vs Chiefs play off game,  I don't remember who Smith was throwing to (I think the back up RB who was wide open on a wheel route), the LBer that was supposed to be covering him was not within 5 yards.  If Smith throws a good ball it's an easy TD.  Smith overthrows the ball and now based on PFF ratings that is a negative play for Smith a negative play for the RB and a positive play for the LB(he did not give up the reception, no yards were gained, it forced a 4th down and the QB rating throwing at that LB is lowered).  When in reality that is a negative play for Smith, a positive play for the RB (he did everything correctly) and a negative play by the LB.

 

Again, I like analytics I just think there is a flaw in PFFs formulas.

 

A play where a QB overthrows a beat CB is not graded as a positive play for the CB. It's usually graded as a negative play actually. Same goes for your LB example.

 

There are no "forumlas" for their grading system. They watch every play and give a grade for a player based on that play on a scale of -2.0 to +2.0. A play where a CB get's beat by a WR who is overthrown by the QB is a negative grade for the QB. A nagetaive grade for the CB, and a 0 for the WR. Im probably wrong, but it seems like you think that the stats are put into a computer or something and that pops out a grade. That's not the case.

 

You seem to be talking more about their "Singature stats": yards allowed, passer rating allowed, ect.. But just like every stat that exists, there are going to be outliers. Bad plays that are counted good or vice-versa. Like when a QB throws a perfect pass that bounces off the hands of a receiver into an INT for the defender. That goes as an INT for the QB even though it wasn't his fault. You just have to accept/assume that the outliers average out amongst the sample size. Because there's no way to account for them unless you watch every play (which PFF does, and gives out their own, subjective grades.)

[Dustin]

Does he play FS or SS?

 

In our defense? Either or.

[Dustin]

I fail to understand the logic behind wanting to sign a player whose personal life makes them unavailable to play games.

 

Because he's a good player that we can have for no risk?

 

Why will he not continue to have the same personal problems after he serves his suspension?

 

Who cares if he does? It's not like we'd be handing him a multi-million dollar contract. He messes up? Cut him. And start Howell like we were going to do if we didn't hypothetically sign Hill anyway.

[Coffeedrinker]

A play where a QB overthrows a beat CB is not graded as a positive play for the CB. It's usually graded as a negative play actually. Same goes for your LB example.

 

There are no "forumlas" for their grading system. They watch every play and give a grade for a player based on that play on a scale of -2.0 to +2.0. A play where a CB get's beat by a WR who is overthrown by the QB is a negative grade for the QB. A nagetaive grade for the CB, and a 0 for the WR. Im probably wrong, but it seems like you think that the stats are put into a computer or something and that pops out a grade. That's not the case.

 

You seem to be talking more about their "Singature stats": yards allowed, passer rating allowed, ect.. But just like every stat that exists, there are going to be outliers. Bad plays that are counted good or vice-versa. Like when a QB throws a perfect pass that bounces off the hands of a receiver into an INT for the defender. That goes as an INT for the QB even though it wasn't his fault. You just have to accept/assume that the outliers average out amongst the sample size. Because there's no way to account for them unless you watch every play (which PFF does, and gives out their own, subjective grades.)

1.  Neither of those statements are true.  For example, when discussing Will Hill with another poster he stated that (using PFF) that QBs had a rating of 61% throwing at him

 

2. Of course there is a formula, else there would be no consistency among the different graders.  Assuming all else is similar every WR that catches a 4 yard pass on 3rd and 5 is going to get the same grade at that play.  The reason for that is because there is a formula for the different actions that happen in that play.  And really, are you so naive that you think formulas only apply to computers?

 

3.  Some of what I'm talking about is signature stats.  But the overall accuracy of the site doesn't pass the eye test on some of the players I've viewed.

[Coffeedrinker]

Who cares if he does? It's not like we'd be handing him a multi-million dollar contract. He messes up? Cut him. And start Howell like we were going to do if we didn't hypothetically sign Hill anyway.

That's the thing though, he's already messed up 3 times in the NFL and he went undrafted because he messed up in college.  

[Dustin]

1.  Neither of those statements are true.  For example, when discussing Will Hill with another poster he stated that (using PFF) that QBs had a rating of 61% throwing at him

 

2. Of course there is a formula, else there would be no consistency among the different graders.  Assuming all else is similar every WR that catches a 4 yard pass on 3rd and 5 is going to get the same grade at that play.  The reason for that is because there is a formula for the different actions that happen in that play.  And really, are you so naive that you think formulas only apply to computers?

 

3.  Some of what I'm talking about is signature stats.  But the overall accuracy of the site doesn't pass the eye test on some of the players I've viewed.

 

1. No, both things I stated are true. If you are talking about their actual "grading system" I'm am correct. No CB gets graded a positive play for a wide-open WR getting overthrown.

 

2. Here you go. There's no actual formulas. Unless you are saying that the grade outline is a formula (which I guess I can get, but maybe I'm just being picky here). There's an outline of what each play would be graded as determining the result. And no I'm not naive about formulas. I know you don't need a computer for a formula. I never said you did. I appreciate your condescension though.

 

3. That's fine. I don't agree with a lot of their grades as well.

[Dustin]

That's the thing though, he's already messed up 3 times in the NFL and he went undrafted because he messed up in college.  

 

Right, but I really don't see any risk. I mean, he just cleared waivers with a ~$500K salary. He's not going to get a lot, or any, guarantted money on his contract. Best case scenario we get a good safety who can start for us, and worse case we cut him for messing up with no penalty. It just seems to me he's be a more valuable addition to the roster for TC and pre-season than a guy like FN Lutz who probably wouldn't even make the roster, plus, it's not like he'd be taking up a roster spot while he was suspended.

[Dustin]

2. Of course there is a formula, else there would be no consistency among the different graders.  Assuming all else is similar every WR that catches a 4 yard pass on 3rd and 5 is going to get the same grade at that play. 

 

Also, just to be pendantic, not every play is going to get the same grade on the play you mentioned (I know you said all being equal, but I just wanted to clear this up). If WR #1 catches a screen and steps out of boundsuntouched , he won't get as good a grade as WR that catches a screen and breaks two tackles even though they both gained 4 yards

[DougDew]

Because he's a good player that we can have for no risk?

 

 

Who cares if he does? It's not like we'd be handing him a multi-million dollar contract. He messes up? Cut him. And start Howell like we were going to do if we didn't hypothetically sign Hill anyway.

If none of this matters, the Giants should have kept him.

 

Sign a guy to take over the starting position in the middle of a season knowing that he his one toke or one too many drinks away from being unavailable?  No thanks.

 

The disruption caused by bringing in a new player to take over a starting spot mid season is overlooked by many.  Its why many people wish Landry would be with the team through all off season activities and not show up when TC starts.

 

I think the Colts would win more games by having a stable player with that roster spot come the 8th game.

 

If he showed he could be available all year, I'd have no problems signing him next offseason.

[Coffeedrinker]

1. No, both things I stated are true. If you are talking about their actual "grading system" I'm am correct. No CB gets graded a positive play for a wide-open WR getting overthrown.

 

2. Here you go. There's no actual formulas. Unless you are saying that the grade outline is a formula (which I guess I can get, but maybe I'm just being picky here). There's an outline of what each play would be graded as determining the result. And no I'm not naive about formulas. I know you don't need a computer for a formula. I never said you did. I appreciate your condescension though.

 

3. That's fine. I don't agree with a lot of their grades as well.

For one, yup I'm lumpy all that various stats together.  Bad me.

 

Thanks for linking.  That is kind of the definition of a formula.  Since we are dealing with statisitics the math definition of formula is an entity constructed using the symbols and formation rules of a given logical language.

 

Right, but I really don't see any risk. I mean, he just cleared waivers with a ~$500K salary. He's not going to get a lot, or any, guarantted money on his contract. Best case scenario we get a good safety who can start for us, and worse case we cut him for messing up with no penalty. It just seems to me he's be a more valuable addition to the roster for TC and pre-season than a guy like FN Lutz who probably wouldn't even make the roster, plus, it's not like he'd be taking up a roster spot while he was suspended.

The Giants were hoping for the best case scenario and it didn't work out.  There is a reason why most states have a three strikes law, it's because people that screw up three times typically are not going to change their behavior.  And the worst case scenario is that Hill plays a half dozen games or so and then gets busted, again, and now the Colts are left without their starting safety and the development of the others players has been stunted.

 

Also, just to be pendantic, not every play is going to get the same grade on the play you mentioned (I know you said all being equal, but I just wanted to clear this up). If WR #1 catches a screen and steps out of boundsuntouched , he won't get as good a grade as WR that catches a screen and breaks two tackles even though they both gained 4 yards

Well then, all things are not equal are they?

[Superman]

1.  Neither of those statements are true.  For example, when discussing Will Hill with another poster he stated that (using PFF) that QBs had a rating of 61% throwing at him

 

 

That's charting, and it's inarguable. Those are the numbers. There should be little variance between PFF and anyone else when charting on-field results.

 

Grading is different, and is subjective and therefore inconclusive.

[swankdizzle]

Will Hill goes unclaimed on waivers

[swankdizzle]

Article on Stampede Blue Collin McCollough on Jan 23 2011: "Scratch Florida Safety Will Hill From The Colts' Draft Board"

 

While browsing for Colts-related draft news the other day, I stumbled across this Every Day Should Be Saturday link [warning: tweet language NSFW] posted on 18to88, which served to capture some of the lowlights of University of Florida free safety Will Hill's Twitter activity.

The Colts, who value character almost to a fault, will surely blow a gasket or three upon reading those tweets.  On his Twitter account, Hill brags about marijuana use, oral sex with a variety of women and marijuana use during oral sex with a variety of women.  He also seems to channel his inner Randy Moss, complaining about the quality of food provided by the University of Florida and the cleanliness of airport restrooms.

[MrNLM]

Will Hill signed... with the AFL Arizona Rattlers.

 

Looks like he is staying a FA at least until the AFL season is over.

[Dustin]

Will Hill signed... with the AFL Arizona Rattlers.

Looks like he is staying a FA at least until the AFL season is over.

He didn't sign. He was re-instated because he played in the NFL. He's still a FA.

[MrNLM]

He didn't sign. He was re-instated because he played in the NFL. He's still a FA.

Wha?

[Dustin]

Wha?

If the Jags cut Justin Blackmon this year and he was reinstated next year, he'd still be a FA. Same scenaeio here basically.

[dgambill]

You bring up a good point. We have one player already sitting out the first month. Hill would represent another, and he'd be out through six weeks. Of course, both can participate in the preseason, and neither counts against the 53 man roster. So it doesn't really cost you roster spots at any point.

 

As a matter of fact, Mathis being out is going to create a de facto 54th spot for someone. A player who would normally not make the final roster will, because Mathis will be out. And he'll have an extra month to take someone else's job. 

Which is why with Mathis out I think we keep 6 wrs temporarily just incase we see any injuries. After Mathis comes back we may see Brazill gone imo. Whelan I don't see making the team unless Rogers falls back into his old ways.  I think this would be a good low risk high reward thing. He wouldn't cost anything....sits out not against our roster count until mid-season and we have plenty of time to evaluate our secondary play...so if we have injuries or not happy we could have a card up our sleeve....or he fails another test and is gone...no sweat. NE is starting the season without Browner....it isn't like these low risk signings are out of the ordinary....I'm just surprised NY let him go considering how thin their secondary is....I know Coughlin is pretty no nonsense...but something tells me there are other issues as well.

[MrNLM]

From what I hear about Will Hill joining the Arizona Rattlers... He smoked the competition at the tryouts. The team's first offer was way out in the weeds, but after sweetening the pot with a joint effort between their President and GM they were able to bring him in. Being blunt, he will be stoning offenses with his skills.

 

Now try to hash that out so it makes an ounce of sensi.

 

    :yay:      ;)  :clap:   

[Superman]

From what I hear about Will Hill joining the Arizona Rattlers... He smoked the competition at the tryouts. The team's first offer was way out in the weeds, but after sweetening the pot with a joint effort between their President and GM they were able to bring him in. Being blunt, he will be stoning offenses with his skills.

 

Now try to hash that out so it makes an ounce of sensi.

 

    :yay:      ;)  :clap:   

 

[MrNLM]

[Burls' Kid's]

Right, but I really don't see any risk. I mean, he just cleared waivers with a ~$500K salary. He's not going to get a lot, or any, guarantted money on his contract. Best case scenario we get a good safety who can start for us, and worse case we cut him for messing up with no penalty. It just seems to me he's be a more valuable addition to the roster for TC and pre-season than a guy like FN Lutz who probably wouldn't even make the roster, plus, it's not like he'd be taking up a roster spot while he was suspended.

 

 

Whom are you to say this? The Colt's sure think FN lutz has potential or else they wouldn't have brought him in. They just don't hand out money to obtain camp bodies for O.T.A'S and training camp. They bring you in based on potential.

[JamesGallegos]

It was an announcement from the NFL that Hill was suspended for starting 6 games of the season 2014. The only reason for his suspension is violating the NFL's substance abuse. Yeah he is nice player it is good if he will get in. 

[Superman]

[krunk]

I wonder would we ever consider giving John Boyett another chance?  I think it's likely he'll be cut from the final 53 of the Broncos as I think they will go with the player they are familiar with in Duke Ihenacho.  If we picked up Boyett we could leave Purifoy as corner depth only.  And we could possibly have Boyett and Mcdonald as the backups behind Landry and Adams perhaps.