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April 9 prediction mock


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The website I usually do mock drafts on has updated their setting, therefore making it tougher to get value for trading down. The best deal I got was an early 4 and 5 for the Colts 3rd, which is pretty fair.

 

Round 2 Pick 27: Jimmie Ward, SS, Northern Illinois (A)
Round 4 Pick 1 (HOU): Demarcus Lawrence, DE, Boise State (A)
Round 5 Pick 8 (MINN): Phillip Gaines, CB, Rice (A)
Round 5 Pick 26: Justin Ellis, DT, Louisiana Tech (B+)
Round 6 Pick 27: Deandre Coleman, DT, California ©
Round 7 Pick 8 (MINN): Aaron Colvin, CB, Oklahoma ©
Round 7 Pick 17: L'Damian Washington, WR, Missouri (B+)

 

Pagano said they were going to get a safety in the draft, and they have shown interest in Ward, and he could be available when we pick. Lawrence is also someone we've shown interest in, providing depth behind Mathis and improving our pass rush. Gaines in an underrated CB who could take over for Toler if his injuries persist.

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I woudln't be disappointed with this draft.  Not a huge fan of Lawrence and if we went with Ellis in the 5th, I'd like to see us pick up a different defensive front prospect in the sixth, perhaps even a return specialist such as Dri Archer or D'Anthony Thomas.

 

I think we're going to see both Thomas and Archer gone by the end of the 4th round.

 

I know the computer simulator games we've been playing show them available very late.    Those are among a number of really, really bad projections by those games.  

 

I think you'll find NFL.com, ESPN.com and even CBS.com shows them going much much earlier than the 6th round.

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I think we're going to see both Thomas and Archer gone by the end of the 4th round.

 

I know the computer simulator games we've been playing show them available very late.    Those are among a number of really, really bad projections by those games.  

 

I think you'll find NFL.com, ESPN.com and even CBS.com shows them going much much earlier than the 6th round.

You could say this about anyone else's big board.  The fact of the matter is, one person's big board is different than another's.  Case in point.  Nfl.com, pre combine had Aaron Donald rated as a 5.35, projected to go in the 4th or 5th round; http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profiles/aaron-donald?id=2543485

 

Now, they record Donald's combine numbers, they copy and past Donald's numbers to his pre-combine profile, but don't change his pre-draft grade. http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/aaron-donald?id=2543485

 

Today, his pre-combine prfile is identical to his combine profile, and his grade is the same.  I'm sorry, they may be accurate with their words...but they have no clue where Aaron Donald will fall..otherwise, they'd update their projections.

 

So to an extent, I respectfully disagree.  They come up with their profiles and review film, but even cbs, espn, nfl.com don't come to similar conclusions.  On some players they do, and even their opinions overlap, but where they aren't identical, there's room for disagreement.  Now I'm not saying Dri Archer or D'Anthony Thomas don't get drafted in the 5th or higher...but I don't take their word as biblical either.

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You could say this about anyone else's big board.  The fact of the matter is, one person's big board is different than another's.  Case in point.  Nfl.com, pre combine had Aaron Donald rated as a 5.35, projected to go in the 4th or 5th round; http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profiles/aaron-donald?id=2543485

 

Now, they record Donald's combine numbers, they copy and past Donald's numbers to his pre-combine profile, but don't change his pre-draft grade. http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/aaron-donald?id=2543485

 

Today, his pre-combine prfile is identical to his combine profile, and his grade is the same.  I'm sorry, they may be accurate with their words...but they have no clue where Aaron Donald will fall..otherwise, they'd update their projections.

 

So to an extent, I respectfully disagree.  They come up with their profiles and review film, but even cbs, espn, nfl.com don't come to similar conclusions.  On some players they do, and even their opinions overlap, but where they aren't identical, there's room for disagreement.  Now I'm not saying Dri Archer or D'Anthony Thomas don't get drafted in the 5th or higher...but I don't take their word as biblical either.

 

Remember, I'm offering 3 different respected websites and ALL of them have Thomas/Archer going no later than the 4th round.  So, for me, when you have consensus on from various respected websites, then I think there's more of a comfort level in predicting.

 

As for Donald on NFL.com....    the Donald projection (4/5) and the Webb projection (I think it's either 6/7 or 7/FA) are BY FAR the two worst projections....   they look ridiculous.

 

I believe both are done by Nolan Nawrocki, formerly of Pro Football Weekly.    Another person also assists on some of the NFL.com write-ups.

 

And you're right,  the projections were done prior to the combine and Nawrocki has not changed them despite Donald hugely blowing up and Webb being liked by large numbers of scouts.    Neither makes any sense.   And I've written to NFL.com urging them to put Nawrocki on a show and explain/defend his projection.

 

That said,   when you're evaluating more than 300 players,  you can dismiss the overall body of work because you strongly disagree with a handful of evaluations....   even ones that look foolish like these.    He's got too much history of being right for me to reject him because of two foolish looking evaluations.    He's earned the overall benefit of the doubt, even when I think he's making a huge mistake on those two kids....

 

Just some food for thought....

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Could someone please show me where Pagano said we were drafting a S. The closet thing I saw was the article where he says there are a lot of S's it would be nice to get one we will see what happens adjust our board accordingly.

 

I am not saying we are not drafting a S I expect we will bring one in for depth at the very least at some point but I have never read anywhere where Grigs or Pagano has said we are drafting a specific position.

 

My guess is that Coleman's visit to Indy had a little to do with what if the guys were are looking at for S in the draft go higher than we have them graded. Insurance.

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Remember, I'm offering 3 different respected websites and ALL of them have Thomas/Archer going no later than the 4th round.  So, for me, when you have consensus on from various respected websites, then I think there's more of a comfort level in predicting.

 

As for Donald on NFL.com....    the Donald projection (4/5) and the Webb projection (I think it's either 6/7 or 7/FA) are BY FAR the two worst projections....   they look ridiculous.

 

I believe both are done by Nolan Nawrocki, formerly of Pro Football Weekly.    Another person also assists on some of the NFL.com write-ups.

 

And you're right,  the projections were done prior to the combine and Nawrocki has not changed them despite Donald hugely blowing up and Webb being liked by large numbers of scouts.    Neither makes any sense.   And I've written to NFL.com urging them to put Nawrocki on a show and explain/defend his projection.

 

That said,   when you're evaluating more than 300 players,  you can dismiss the overall body of work because you strongly disagree with a handful of evaluations....   even ones that look foolish like these.    He's got too much history of being right for me to reject him because of two foolish looking evaluations.    He's earned the overall benefit of the doubt, even when I think he's making a huge mistake on those two kids....

 

Just some food for thought....

I'm not saying I disagree with anything you've said on Archer or Thomas.  I'm not even saying that CBS, NFL, ESPN is wrong or untrustworthy (ESPN is meh, but whatevs).  All I'm saying is, for a great deal of players, I'll see their rankings and use it as a starting point.  But there are some players to me that are overrated and others that are underrated.  And perhaps I didn't clarify what I meant.  When I was talking about Archer and Thomas earlier, it was as a return specialist and where I think the Colts should draft one, if in fact we wanted to.  To me, it had nothing to do with the game and more to do with where I would be willing to draft them. 

 

 I admittedly have no clue how to rank punt/kick returners - partially because I'd rather just trust our team to draft a good one (which, maybe I should start looking at it because we haven't had a good one in forever), and the other reason is, I find it to be much more boring to watch and you wouldn't get to evaluate properly anyway because you don't get to see the entirety of kick coverage and the return.  However, from everything I've read and heard, these guys could be game changers in the kick/punt return game.  But, the game film I do watch, is how they operate in the offense and I don't see them as slot/scat back contributors.  They did well at their respective schools and perhaps Thomas has the best chance.  I just don't think either has a very solid chance.  As such, that takes them from a 4th round to a 6th round on my board.

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