I Don't See Us Drafting Luck If Manning Can Play

[unitaswestand]

I honestly think the ONLY WAY the Colts would draft Andrew Luck, providing they have the #1 pick, is if Manning simply has to retire. If Manning can play, I think there is zero chance the Colts draft him. Of course, they are going to say they will now, because they want to drive that trade value up. But here is why I feel that way:

1) This offense is built around Peyton Manning and his strengths. Sure, Luck is a great prospect, but it will take him a couple of years to be up to speed. And who's to say he could run this offense?? Might be that they have to chance it to accomodate his strengths. So I would expect the Colts to be bad for 2-3 years.

2) By the time Luck is playing at a high level, lets say 2-3 years, it is very likely there is no more Mathis, Wayne, Freeney, Saturday, or even Dallas Clark. So he is better, but the talent around him is worse. So maybe they are still not very good?

3) This is a WIN NOW sport. Does Bill really want his son to have to go through a 3-4 year stretch of likely not being very good? He might not last that long, especially considering this season.

4) Lets say the Colts have the #1 pick and a team like Miami desperately wants him. So trade the pick to Miami for their high #1 and maybe their #1 next year or this year and next years #2s. Now pick WR Justin Blackmon and fortify the cornerback position with those extra picks. The Colts are built to WIN NOW with Manning, so this sets them up next year to make a run at the Super Bowl with potentially another great WR and more talent. The reason I say Blackmon is because that high of a pick, I think we go for a skill position even if we need CB more. We need the next great Colt WR.

5) I highly doubt Luck would want to sit 3-4 years on the bench behind Manning.

Obviously, this is just all my opinion. But if I could play fantasy GM, that is how I would approach it. I would go for winning now, getting the most I can out of trading Luck if I had the #1 pick, and think about Mannings eventual replacement in probably two years if he is able to play at the same level.

[IndyD4U]

You obviously can't see the sticky at the top of the page saying that "Luck" post must be in the NFL Draft section.

ps, not trying to be rude :yay:

[coltfaninnewyork]

What if peyton decides to retire in a few years?

[deadman]

Even if the Colts had little or no interest in drafting Luck, they will still say they are interested. They have to make other teams, like the Dolphins and others, think that they will draft him so they will receive a good value in return for that number 1 pick.

[Andy]

There gonna think about the future. The future is Luck (if drafted) and I don't think they can pass up an oppurtunity.

[DILLIGAFER]

I guess it depends on how much money Luck wants and how he wants to start his career. In the NFL. Personally, if I were Luck.. i would want to study under Manning for a couple years till he retires. Learn from the best and hopefully take the reins and run after he is gone.

Frankly im not sure the colts can afford him. Id say they would have to get rid of Mathis or Wayne to compensate Luck. Is he worth it? In all reality, i really don't know. Guess time will tell.

Id rather see the Colts go after a lineman D or O and stock up on Defensive players.

BTW, would the colts cut Brown please..

[GoDeep]

There gonna think about the future. The future is Luck (if drafted) and I don't think they can pass up an oppurtunity.

This

[Jason_]

Id rather see the Colts go after a lineman D or O and stock up on Defensive players.

BTW, would the colts cut Brown please..

This

You obviously can't see the sticky at the top of the page saying that "Luck" post must be in the NFL Draft section.

ps, not trying to be rude :yay:

and this.

[FireJimCaldwell]

My opinion is based on Manning's health. A) He retires, we draft Luck if we are in position B) He's cleared to play but there aren't any promises on what he's like. I think at that point you have to draft Luck on the premise that Manning might retire in a year or so C) Manning is cleared, healthy and determined after sitting out a year, that if he stays healthy, he might even sign a another 2-3 year deal because he's seen a year away from football and didn't like it. If this is the case, then you auction off the Luck pick(if it is ours) to the highest bidder. You take the 2-3 1's, the 2 one year, the 3, the next and whatever else is thrown in as the cherry on top and you restock the team, in problem areas, DT, DB,OL, LB,etc and you address the QB position later on, via free agency, a future draft, a trade, whatever.

Obviously Green Bay struck gold with Rodgers, but I also feel that they got very lucky that he dropped to them and that he developed the way that he did. They could have utilized that spot for Favre's final years and who knows(Roddy White, Logan Mankins or Heath Miller), they might have had ring #2 that way. If Manning is anything close to what he has been and can be that way for the rest of his contract, then I feel you have to trade away the pick even if Luck is the can't miss prospect. Of course, every QB taken in the first round has been a good enough prospect for teams to mortgage their future on. Obviously that has had mixed results.

[CR91]

you wanna bank on peyton not having any set backs with his health without having a contingency plan

[FireJimCaldwell]

you wanna bank on peyton not having any set backs with his health without having a contingency plan

Drafting Luck is banking on him being great and not being injured without having a contingency plan since it will be the same type structure as it is with Manning.

If someone wants the structure to change, then you have to alter the offense to a more qb friendly offense such as the WCO/Pats system where a young guy can be more productive from a schematic point of view.

[Zebra3]

Personally, I think that this is entirely dependent on Peyton Mannings health status. If he's fully healthy, then he potentially has 4+ years left in his arm. If we draft Luck (or any other top prospect at QB) this coming year that leaves whoever is drafted riding a bench for 4 years. Not a good way to spend big money on a draft pick since you won't use him. In which case, drafting Luck is not a great idea. Of course if we end up in that 1st pick slot we will want to keep everyone guessing so that the pick retains as much of it's trade value as possible.

I expect that we will here cautious but encouraging health news about Manning through the remainder of the year, and perhaps even see him throw some balls with the practice squad for effect. then during the off season the team can do a really deep look at Manning's health and readiness and whether he's good for 4+ years or not. Based on that assessment, we'll either trade the pick or draft high. But I can't really guess how that will go.

My personal thoughts/wishes are that Peyton makes a full recovery and plays for another 5 -6 years, and that the team spends the last 2-3 years looking at what kind of QB they want to replace Peyton with and then rebuild the team's roster and playbook around that. Simply slotting in a replacement isn't going to work because as we have seen this year, Manning brings so many intangibles that his absence affects things that you just don't anticipate.

All that said, I really like what Curtis Painter can do, and if the play calling, coaching and Defense (especially defensive play calling) could at least catch up to Painter's apparent ability, we would actually win some games. I'd be really comfortable with painter as Peyton's backup if for no other reason than he is actually reasonably good at replicating Peyton's style of play, even if it is without the intangibles that Peyton brings to the game. So with painter as backup, the gameplan doesn't have to change, but the coaches need to become more active.

All in all, I do not believe that the Colts should Press Their Luck, there are too many Whamy's on the board...

[CR91]

Drafting Luck is banking on him being great and not being injured without having a contingency plan since it will be the same type structure as it is with Manning.

If someone wants the structure to change, then you have to alter the offense to a more qb friendly offense such as the WCO/Pats system where a young guy can be more productive from a schematic point of view.

tells why he sits so he can learn the offense and if peyton cant go then we have luck

[FireJimCaldwell]

tells why he sits so he can learn the offense and if peyton cant go then we have luck

That is a different scenario, but even then we are back to the same point assuming Manning is done, with nothing behind Luck and the same structure.

We've had the best quarterback to ever play the game and have one ring based on the structure of the team. Why continue that with another solid quarterback?

[CR91]

That is a different scenario, but even then we are back to the same point assuming Manning is done, with nothing behind Luck and the same structure.

We've had the best quarterback to ever play the game and have one ring based on the structure of the team. Why continue that with another solid quarterback?

peyton was hiding all of the problems we have now. we have to change. we cant just rely on our qb to bail us out. the defense needs to improve its scheme. if we wanna continue our success we need to make changes for the upcoming future and that starts getting our future play caller. its time to look towards future not the past.

[FireJimCaldwell]

peyton was hiding all of the problems we have now. we have to change. we cant just rely on our qb to bail us out. the defense needs to improve its scheme. if we wanna continue our success we need to make changes for the upcoming future and that starts getting our future play caller. its time to look towards future not the past.

That's the point. With Luck, we will have the same structure and be faced with the same issues with everything still being on the QB. Drafting luck does nothing to speak of the changes you want to make. He might be able to continue to cover up some of the issues, but for a true change, it has go beyond the QB position and the scheme has to change. Luck once he's out of his rookie contract will require a similar type $ % in the salary cap.

[CR91]

That's the point. With Luck, we will have the same structure and be faced with the same issues with everything still being on the QB. Drafting luck does nothing to speak of the changes you want to make. He might be able to continue to cover up some of the issues, but for a true change, it has go beyond the QB position and the scheme has to change. Luck once he's out of his rookie contract will require a similar type $ % in the salary cap.

so answer me this who takes over once peyton is done. who ever you name i bet my home that he would not be as good as luck

Edited November 2, 2011 by coltsrule91

[FireJimCaldwell]

so answer me this who takes over once peyton is done

I don't have that answer, because I do't know when he's done. He might be done right now. But unless you are banking on the replacement, whether it's Luck, Painter, some freshman in college, a free agent, a qb we obtain via trade, John Doe, anybody, but unless you are banking on him being better than Peyton, and taking the same system that is in place and doing a better job, then changes have to be made.

You said that yourself. I just don't see changes being made if we draft Luck.

If Peyton never throws another pass and god I hope that isn't the case because I really hope my last memory of Manning in a Colt uniform isn't Manning looking at Caldwell in dismay over that foolish timeout vs. the Jets, but if he has thrown his last pass, then I feel we have to take Luck, even though it goes against my belief change is needed for the future. He's the best QB out there. That sounds contradictory but so are all posts that mention drafting Luck and wanting change in them.

Edited November 2, 2011 by firejimcaldwell

[GoGoColts]

On the OP. I agree. If we can get a big trade deal for luck, we would be better off based on the assumption that Peyton is good to go. I think that we need a first round QB in the next year or two.

Unless the organization is really certain that Luck is the next Peyton Manning notwithstanding the hype.

Edited November 3, 2011 by GoGoColts

[JoKeR]

I honestly think the ONLY WAY the Colts would draft Andrew Luck, providing they have the #1 pick, is if Manning simply has to retire. If Manning can play, I think there is zero chance the Colts draft him. Of course, they are going to say they will now, because they want to drive that trade value up. But here is why I feel that way:

1) This offense is built around Peyton Manning and his strengths. Sure, Luck is a great prospect, but it will take him a couple of years to be up to speed. And who's to say he could run this offense?? Might be that they have to chance it to accomodate his strengths. So I would expect the Colts to be bad for 2-3 years.

2) By the time Luck is playing at a high level, lets say 2-3 years, it is very likely there is no more Mathis, Wayne, Freeney, Saturday, or even Dallas Clark. So he is better, but the talent around him is worse. So maybe they are still not very good?

3) This is a WIN NOW sport. Does Bill really want his son to have to go through a 3-4 year stretch of likely not being very good? He might not last that long, especially considering this season.

4) Lets say the Colts have the #1 pick and a team like Miami desperately wants him. So trade the pick to Miami for their high #1 and maybe their #1 next year or this year and next years #2s. Now pick WR Justin Blackmon and fortify the cornerback position with those extra picks. The Colts are built to WIN NOW with Manning, so this sets them up next year to make a run at the Super Bowl with potentially another great WR and more talent. The reason I say Blackmon is because that high of a pick, I think we go for a skill position even if we need CB more. We need the next great Colt WR.

5) I highly doubt Luck would want to sit 3-4 years on the bench behind Manning.

Obviously, this is just all my opinion. But if I could play fantasy GM, that is how I would approach it. I would go for winning now, getting the most I can out of trading Luck if I had the #1 pick, and think about Mannings eventual replacement in probably two years if he is able to play at the same level.

I think your selling your argument short actually, Dolphins would probably give up more than that. They've been waiting a very long time to replace Marino.

[oldunclemark]

I think your selling your argument short actually, Dolphins would probably give up more than that. They've been waiting a very long time to replace Marino.

I'd want Miami's 1 @ 2 this year and next year's No.1..

That would give us 3 of the top 34 picks in 2012

[doogansquest]

Don't you know, that you are never allowed to be against picking Luck?

Don't you know that moderators will jump on you for calling out the "Suck for Luck" proponents, despite what they dish out to everyone else?

Don't you know so-and-so on tv said we should take Luck, and that's iron-clad?

Don't you know that, even though it is nothing like the Favre/Rodgers scenario, people will keep saying this is our Favre/Rodgers scenario?

Don't you know that Aaron Rodgers would be 0-9 with this Colts team, whereas Peyton would never win a game by less than 20 points with the Packers? Yet people here think the former is the best QB ever because his ridiculous team won the Super Bowl last year...

Don't you know that unproven QB's are a lock for greatness if they get hyped?

Don't you know that you draft a Legend, not a need?

Edited November 8, 2011 by doogansquest

[super8todd]

We will be drafting Luck. Get used to it. He will sit for at least a year.. then the Colts are going to decide what to do with either Peyton or Luck at that point.

[Jason_]

We will be drafting Luck. Get used to it. He will sit for at least a year.. then the Colts are going to decide what to do with either Peyton or Luck at that point.

And after the draft they're going to go to St. Elmo's for a celebratory dinner. Luck will have the Yellow fin seared Tuna, Irsay the bone-in ribeye, both Polians will have the NY Strip and Manning the filet. They will have a shrimp cocktail per person, and they're going to order mashed potatoes and asparagus with Hollandaise sauce as sides. All the while, you and dn4192 will be standing outside the window gazing in as you're beating off

the media to give them the private dinner they deserve.

I just got my sightseer's license so figured I'd just add on to what you were saying. ;)

[super8todd]

And after the draft they're going to go to St. Elmo's for a celebratory dinner. Luck will have the Yellow fin seared Tuna, Irsay the bone-in ribeye, both Polians will have the NY Strip and Manning the filet. They will have a shrimp cocktail per person, and they're going to order mashed potatoes and asparagus with Hollandaise sauce as sides. All the while, you and dn4192 will be standing outside the window gazing in as you're beating off

the media to give them the private dinner they deserve.

I just got my sightseer's license so figured I'd just add on to what you were saying. :wink:

A correction.. the Polians get to share a single crouton. A repayment that represents the dried up results of their past several years of picks to get us into this mess. And I say a single crouton, because by splitting it, it doesn't represent ONE. As in, the ONE win that they were unable to provide us with this year.