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Colts Vs. Texans Game Day Thread


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    • I don’t think JJ Watt fits this defense.  He had been a great player but Houston is aging better.  I would rather resign him and Autry and it’s time for one of these DL 2nd round picks to start performing at least as an average starter. 
    • I am not going to criticize anyone who does a Mock Draft in here because I wouldn't even attempt to do one. Mock Drafts are just guesses, crap shoots, and crazy reaches but are fun to read. I will say this I would never trade Ryan Kelly, he and Nelson have great chemistry. Kelly is good with experience as well. I would just keep my 21 and draft a LT there, In round 2 - I would draft and edge rusher but still re-sign Houston to a 2 year deal for 20 Mill = 10 Mill a year. Houston would be taking a slight paycut but not much of one which he shouldn't. He was good last year with 8 sacks and several pressures. In FA I would go after a WR, I will leave it at that.
    • The Pittsburgh Steelers have not had a good receiving back since Bell left. It has been a hodge podge of backs after James Conner's first year breakthrough success fizzled out the last 2 years. With that in mind, they draft this playmaking RB who put on a show at the Senior Bowl:   Michael Carter, RB, North Carolina   @Archer and The Seattle Seahawks are on the clock
    • The Las Vegas Raiders, via PM, select Baron Browning, ILB, Ohio State   Pittsburgh Steelers and @chad72 (myself) are on the clock.  
    • Here's a statistical analysis for return on investment of our draft picks done by PFF: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams   The analysis is based on PFF's WAR metric(wins above replacement).    I won't quote the whole thing, but if you are interested, it's worth checking out the whole article with all explanations about their graphs. I will just post the main graphs with what they show...    First... Total WAR added by those 4 classes since 2017:     Colts are at no. 11 in the league and the Chiefs are no. 1 thanks mainly to Mahomes. It's interesting to see that ALL of the teams with good young QBs drafted in that period are in the top 10 - Chiefs(Mahomes), Ravens(Lamar), Texans(Watson), Bills(Allen), Browns(Mayfield).   Also worth pointing out that the top 2 teams are the 2 teams in this year's Superbowl, which underlines the importance of the draft towards building a winning team. And the Texans' value is derived almost single-handedly by Watson - the picks other than Watson have contributed negative WAR combined for the Texans.    The next graph is what PFF calls "draft consistency". It includes not just the WAR, but it weighs it based on draft position and on-field position. Here's where the Colts do very very well:     The Colts are the best team at draft consistency in the last 4 years. An interesting tidbit from the discussion in the article here is that Mahomes has had total WAR of 11 for those 4 years(best QB - 99.99 percentile drafted at no. 10), while the projected WAR for Nelson(best guard drafted in top 10 - 99.99 percentile) is just 1.6WAR. This just comes to show just how much more valuable QB is than even a generational guard. Here's what PFF writes about Colts' draft consistency and why they come 1st in that metric:     The third graph is weighing the WAR production by round(the example given - top 10 pick succeeding in the 90th percentile usually gives you about 2.0 WAR, while 90th percentile success for a 7th round pick gives you just about 0.2WAR.). Dot's size indicates the weight(round) of each pick :     Colts again rank very well at no. 2 in the league here.     And here's the last graph in which they take into account positional value:     Still the Colts rank in the top 5.    And finally they ask the question - does that mean that certain GMs are better than others at evaluating draft eligible players and the answer is interesting...    You can read the rationale on the link above... 
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