Kalil Is Our Best Bet If Three Assumptions Hold

[Jaric]

Why are we assuming Manning plays another 4-6 years?

[gspdx]

When you get all riled up and start arguing against assumptions complaining that they are opinions rather than fact then you clearly have no clue what an assumption is as they are clearly opinions. All you need to so is simply disagree and explain a more likely scenario.

Riled up? I guess you didn't read my post. Nothing in my post is derogatory or attacking anyone personally, yet you have been doing that since the beginning. By the time I made my first post you were already attacking people for their replies. Explain a more likely scenario? Maybe not more likely but I did express what I thought might be a reasonable possibility.

You never made any coherrent response to my first post. You immediately attacked me about needing to read a dictionary before I post.

I personally wouldn't pay any attention to your opinions based on the way you respond to people here.

Edited October 18, 2011 by gspdx

[Thewholefnshow28]

Three little words:

Best. Player. Available.

BPA is at the heart of this discussion. If you are sitting at number two overall and on your big board you have Kalil rated as your 2nd best player in the draft it is hard to pass up the guy even though you took a LT in the first last year. The big question you have to answer is do you think Kalil will be a better LT then AC. If you say yes then you draft Kalil, move AC to RT and move Ilajana to OG.

If you project AC to be the better player maybe you trade down a few picks to address other needs like CB or SS and pick up a few more picks.

[jskinnz]

Apparently, you think that taking guy who projects as a guard and stretching him to play right tackle qualifies as a bookend. LOL.

Hey Genius - he played tackle in college. He played tackle for the Colts. The Colts don't move up to take a player in the 2nd round only to play him at guard. Ijalana is a tackle - was always going to be a tackle for Indy.

What else you got?

[rockywoj]

Why are we even talking about drafting an offensive player in the first round. Anyone been watching the same games i have? This team needs a solid CB/SS. The way they get beat relentlessly is beyond rediculous. Barring any unforseen tragedy to Manning, the offense will be good next year with Ijliana and castonzo returning with Diem. Colts may need to snag a WR if the colts do not resign wayne.

Colts need depth in the back field. Period.

I agree with you assessment about the defense ... CB / SS, however, I have not heard of anybody coming out of the draft at CB or SS that is top five pick worthy. Ergo, the discussion of what best helps the team. I happen to believe another piece to the puzzle of solidifying the OL, in the absence of a CB or SS is the way to go, if a once in 10 year player like Kalil is there for the taking.

[GoGoColts]

Why are we assuming Manning plays another 4-6 years?

I am just hopeful that the organization is telling the truth that others have had this surgery on the team and continue to play .

[rockywoj]

Hey Genius - he played tackle in college. He played tackle for the Colts. The Colts don't move up to take a player in the 2nd round only to play him at guard. Ijalana is a tackle - was always going to be a tackle for Indy.

What else you got?

Did the Colts not use him a bit at OG in the preseason? I don't know, that is why I am asking. I thought I had heard that they did.

Edited October 18, 2011 by rockywoj

[jskinnz]

Not usually....but if Castonzo is under contract for 8 mil over 4 years and Kalil, if we took him at #4, presumably would come in at 20-21mil over 4 years based on 2011 rookie salaries plus a small increase...then, along with kicking Ijalana inside to OG we'd have the foundation of a very formidable young O-line.

I totally get that we have other needs like the NT we've needed for years.

I just think we do have to be careful of passing up blue-chip rated talent at a Top 5 draft position if there is a possible scenario where the pick could actually work out very well.

We could after all be stuck without an acceptable trade-down offer and actually having to make a pick. Just keeping an open mind.

Understand the philosophy and I do think the Colts will have their minds open to all kinds of possibilities - just think there is no conceivable way they spend another pick on a position when they are already heavily invested in that position very recently.

[jskinnz]

Did the Colts not use him a bit at OG in the preseason? I don't know, that is why I am asking. I thought I had heard that they did.

They had him all over but his position will be tackle.

[Jaric]

I am just hopeful that the organization is telling the truth that others have had this surgery on the team and continue to play .

Look at how his contract is structured. After the 3rd year, the money goes drastically down.

That usually indicates those years have no intention of being filled out. Not to mention that another 5-6 years would require another contract, and I'm fairly certain this most recent contract was designed to be his final one. Not to mention that if my math is correct, that would have Manning playing into his 40s which I don't think he ever intended.

Just from what info we have, surgery or not, 2-3 years is far more reasonable an expectation than 4-6.

[rockywoj]

They had him all over but his position will be tackle.

Well, generally I would agree, but I would qualify that by saying, unless Kalil is there for the taking. Then I would take Kalil, switch Castonzo to ROT, and switch Ijilana to OG, keeping the faith that he has the talent and dedication to successfully make that switch to OG and flourish. True talent is adaptable.

Edited October 18, 2011 by rockywoj

[GoGoColts]

Hey Genius - he played tackle in college. He played tackle for the Colts. The Colts don't move up to take a player in the 2nd round only to play him at guard. Ijalana is a tackle - was always going to be a tackle for Indy.

What else you got?

Falling down and getting hurt because you can't keep up is hardly a strong sign. However, Jake Scott used to play tackle occasionally, but his natural potion is guard. It is the same with Ijalana. The organization was looking to stretch him into right tackle becuase it was the best that they could do. Still, there is no guarantee that he can even play right tackle. If they get kalil, they don't have to continue with the rag-tag smoke and mirrors offensive line.

[GoGoColts]

Understand the philosophy

No you don't. Stop kidding yourself.

[pacolts56]

Understand the philosophy and I do think the Colts will have their minds open to all kinds of possibilities - just think there is no conceivable way they spend another pick on a position when they are already heavily invested in that position very recently.

I agree it's certainly not Plan A....and hopefully a trade-down or the right value/need player materializes when we pick.

[GoGoColts]

Look at how his contract is structured. After the 3rd year, the money goes drastically down.

That usually indicates those years have no intention of being filled out. Not to mention that another 5-6 years would require another contract, and I'm fairly certain this most recent contract was designed to be his final one. Not to mention that if my math is correct, that would have Manning playing into his 40s which I don't think he ever intended.

Just from what info we have, surgery or not, 2-3 years is far more reasonable an expectation than 4-6.

If he is only playing 2-3 years for sure. It's almost a forgone conclusion that the Colts get a QB.

[04DarkShadowGT]

1. We will not have the number 1 pick because the Dolphins are the worst team.

2. The Dolphins draft Luck and the other QB prospects are just typical first round QB prospects.

3. Peyton will come back and play for 4-6 year if we protect him.

Sorry that this is in the wrong place.

If Peyton comes backj, 4 years is about the long shot. He is not going to be playing for 6 more years, if he does he will not be close to what he has been.

As much as it sucks, at some point its time to move on. I am not saying that we need to do that now, but 6 years is too long. Just my opinion though.

[GoGoColts]

If Peyton comes backj, 4 years is about the long shot. He is not going to be playing for 6 more years, if he does he will not be close to what he has been.

As much as it sucks, at some point its time to move on. I am not saying that we need to do that now, but 6 years is too long. Just my opinion though.

I agree. I was thinking that if we put together the best young offensive line in football (Kalil LT, Ijilana RG, Saturday C, Pollack RG, Castanzo RT) that Peyton could be fine for that long, and we could bide our time for a QB to drop to us over the next few years.

Edited October 18, 2011 by GoGoColts

[Jason_]

Falling down and getting hurt because you can't keep up is hardly a strong sign. However, Jake Scott used to play tackle occasionally, but his natural potion is guard. It is the same with Ijalana. The organization was looking to stretch him into right tackle becuase it was the best that they could do. Still, there is no guarantee that he can even play right tackle. If they get kalil, they don't have to continue with the rag-tag smoke and mirrors offensive line.

Ijalana did not play tackle occasionally, he was a 3 year starter at LT at Villanova. His natural position is OT because that's the position he's played. Some draft "experts" said that based on his skill set he may project better to OG but that was nothing more than conjecture.

It's amazing the lengths some people go to in trying to justify their argument.

[chad72]

Depends on what happens in the offseason. Let us say Garcon plays well the rest of the season but opts for a sweet paycheck in the offseason with another team, our best option would be to re-sign Wayne and who do we realistically have on the outside that can keep Ds honest? Gonzo, maybe, if he is not hurt most of the time. After that, zilch, nada. White and Collie along with Clark can man the slot, but no one for the outside, with or without Peyton. Hate to say it, re-signing Garcon is more important than re-signing Wayne who may look for a bigger payday than Garcon.

A lot of things can happen in the offseason that will determine our course on draft day.

[Balzer40]

Ijalana did not play tackle occasionally, he was a 3 year starter at LT at Villanova. His natural position is OT because that's the position he's played. Some draft "experts" said that based on his skill set he may project better to OG but that was nothing more than conjecture.

It's amazing the lengths some people go to in trying to justify their argument.

Yeah, and I also seen a couple of draft sites suggest he would go to guard because he was shorter than a typical OT. I don't get that at all, the guy is 6'4". Thats what, maybe a whole inch shorter than most tackles??? Unbelievable, the guy was an excellent tackle in college and if he had went to a bigger football school would have been considered one of the best tackles in the draft.

[jskinnz]

Falling down and getting hurt because you can't keep up is hardly a strong sign. However, Jake Scott used to play tackle occasionally, but his natural potion is guard. It is the same with Ijalana. The organization was looking to stretch him into right tackle becuase it was the best that they could do. Still, there is no guarantee that he can even play right tackle. If they get kalil, they don't have to continue with the rag-tag smoke and mirrors offensive line.

Yawn. There is not a chance the Colts take Kalil.

I am done with this. I am sure we will argue with each other in other threads. I would like to agree with you more but then we'd both be wrong.

[rockywoj]

Ijalana did not play tackle occasionally, he was a 3 year starter at LT at Villanova. His natural position is OT because that's the position he's played. Some draft "experts" said that based on his skill set he may project better to OG but that was nothing more than conjecture.

It's amazing the lengths some people go to in trying to justify their argument.

If a guy has a skill set that projects to more than one position .... does he REALLY have a "natural" position? Talent is versatile and to try and pigeon hole a guy as being just one single spot is a pretty narrow view. Yes, Ijilana played OT in college, but that's just the position he played in college. It does not mean mean he is not talented enough to make the transition to play OG, where many project his skill set as being the best fit. To make best use of talent available is also a reason teams have "coaches". To coach and teach.

Perhaps he will remain at OT and perhaps that IS where he might be best, but to so steadfastly refuse to recognize that he ALSO seems to have a skill set that translates to OG is tunnel vision. If Ijilana is so good, I am sure he can play either OT or OG. Therefore, if Kalil is there for the taking and if Kalil is indeed a once in a decade OT talent, I say, you take him and your line is THAT much better because of it.

Edited October 18, 2011 by rockywoj

[chad72]

Pac 10 does not have elite pass rushers, here is Kalil's scouting notes:

http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2011/5/4/2151711/matt-kalil-2012-nfl-draft-prospect-notes

I am still not sold on the Ds Kalil has faced, personally. If the Colts feel he is the best value at that position, so be it, I will respect it. But I feel it is unlikely that he is picked by the Colts.

[Ramblinwreck7]

Sooo, why is Kalil a once in a ten year player? I've heard that he is good, but not elite college LT good.

[Balzer40]

Pac 10 does not have elite pass rushers, here is Kalil's scouting notes:

http://www.mockingth...-prospect-notes

I am still not sold on the Ds Kalil has faced, personally. If the Colts feel he is the best value at that position, so be it, I will respect it. But I feel it is unlikely that he is picked by the Colts.

Thats what im thinking, frankly I have no idea where this "once in a decade OT" stuff is coming from. Kind of light for an OT and will be facing much better and stronger talent in the NFL. He might be the highest rated OT in this draft but I have not seen anything that would suggest he's the greatest OT to come out in a decade.

Edited October 18, 2011 by Balzer40

[Balzer40]

Sooo, why is Kalil a once in a ten year player? I've heard that he is good, but not elite college LT good.

We posted this at the same time. I don't know where its coming from either.

[pacolts56]

Careful with the college comparisons guys.... Tony Boselli played for a subpar (by USC standards) Trojan squad during his time there.

And check the 1st and 2nd round drafts while he played at USC....there were no "elite" pass rushers then either.

Yet Boselli used to own....lock, stock and barrel....none other than Bills DE Bruce Smith every time they played.

[Balzer40]

Careful with the college comparisons guys.... Tony Boselli played for a subpar (by USC standards) Trojan squad during his time there.

And check the 1st and 2nd round drafts while he played at USC....there were no "elite" pass rushers then either.

Yet Boselli used to own....lock, stock and barrel....none other than Bills DE Bruce Smith every time they played.

True, but I still wonder where the "once in a decade" stuff is coming from. I have yet to see anything that would even remotely suggest that.

[pacolts56]

True, but I still wonder where the "once in a decade" stuff is coming from. I have yet to see anything that would even remotely suggest that.

I know....all most of us have to go on is the trillion or so draft research boards plus what our eyes see on TV.

But he did, in fact, keep Tryon Smith in the RT spot....that's gotta mean something because USC has a pretty darn good passing attack.

I don't think we'll draft him....but he looks like a darn good prospect.

Edited October 18, 2011 by pacolts56

[chad72]

I know....all most of us have to go on is the trillion or so draft research boards plus what our eyes see on TV.

But he did, in fact, keep Tryon Smith in the RT spot....that's gotta mean something because USC has a pretty darn good passing attack.

I don't think we'll draft him....but he looks like a darn good prospect.

All the more reason to entertain trade down offers with teams if they need offensive line help and Kalil is out there. Our needs are so diverse that it makes sense to trade down if we are not No.1, this is a list of 2012 nfl draft team needs:

http://www.drafttek.com/teamneeds2012.asp

Both Minnesota and Arizona need a franchise left tackle, so I would entertain a 1st & 3rd round pick if they are within 2 or 3 picks in the first round with them. Arizona gave up their 2nd round to the Eagles for Kolb but Minnesota still has their 2nd round pick in tact should they give us their 1st & 3rd.

[Jason_]

If a guy has a skill set that projects to more than one position .... does he REALLY have a "natural" position? Talent is versatile and to try and pigeon hole a guy as being just one single spot is a pretty narrow view. Yes, Ijilana played OT in college, but that's just the position he played in college. It does not mean mean he is not talented enough to make the transition to play OG, where many project his skill set as being the best fit. To make best use of talent available is also a reason teams have "coaches". To coach and teach.

Perhaps he will remain at OT and perhaps that IS where he might be best, but to so steadfastly refuse to recognize that he ALSO seems to have a skill set that translates to OG is tunnel vision. If Ijilana is so good, I am sure he can play either OT or OG. Therefore, if Kalil is there for the taking and if Kalil is indeed a once in a decade OT talent, I say, you take him and your line is THAT much better because of it.

If a player has only ever played one position then yes I would say that's his natural position. Does that mean he can't adjust to a different position? Of course not. I never steadfastly refused to consider anything. Re-read the below post I made on the first page:

Ok here's the biggest problem, imo. If we were able to play around and try him at OG for the rest of the season to see how he does then that would be one thing. We can't though because of his injury and him being on IR. Therefore you're taking the chance that he'd be able to make the switch which is nothing more than speculation. The experts said that based on his skill set he may be able to play guard but unless I'm wrong he's never taken a snap at the position. I believe he was a multi-year starter at LT during college. So all that means is he has the skill set that might allow him to make the switch but without the opportunity to find out we'll never know. That means you're taking a top 5 draft pick on another OT with the assumption that Ijalana can make the switch and be an effective OG which is something we don't know. If he can't, then the 2nd round pick we spent on him becomes a waste. Well, maybe "waste" is a bit strong but we don't get near the value we should because Ijalana would then become a backup.

Instead, we can keep him at OT, a position we know he can play and then take one of the best OG's later in the draft and this way we're taking a player who has multiple years at the position so there is no guesswork involved. We also can then spend the top 5 pick to either trade down and get additional picks or draft a top-level talent at another position that we need. I am all for continuing to strengthen the OL but using a top 5 pick on a player one year removed from spending first and second round picks on players at the same position based on the assumption that one of those players can make the transition to a brand new position is what is makes the idea a mistake, imo.

[doogansquest]

BPA is at the heart of this discussion. If you are sitting at number two overall and on your big board you have Kalil rated as your 2nd best player in the draft it is hard to pass up the guy even though you took a LT in the first last year. The big question you have to answer is do you think Kalil will be a better LT then AC. If you say yes then you draft Kalil, move AC to RT and move Ilajana to OG.

If you project AC to be the better player maybe you trade down a few picks to address other needs like CB or SS and pick up a few more picks.

That's a great series of points, but it is Polian we're talking about here. That family may not have Kalil as the BPA. Their board tends to view things a little differently. Sometimes they knock it out of the park (the entire draft this past April, for example), or they get Gonzo.

[pacolts56]

All the more reason to entertain trade down offers with teams if they need offensive line help and Kalil is out there. Our needs are so diverse that it makes sense to trade down if we are not No.1, this is a list of 2012 nfl draft team needs:

http://www.drafttek....amneeds2012.asp

Both Minnesota and Arizona need a franchise left tackle, so I would entertain a 1st & 3rd round pick if they are within 2 or 3 picks in the first round with them. Arizona gave up their 2nd round to the Eagles for Kolb but Minnesota still has their 2nd round pick in tact should they give us their 1st & 3rd.

Absolutely....the Vikings and Cardinals look like they're both headed for top 10 picks so they'd make good trade partners.

I'm open to any trade-down scenario, unless we have the #1 pick and we know Peyton is within 2 years of retirement.

[Cain Marko]

Why are we assuming Manning plays another 4-6 years?

Exactly. I hate seeing people make that assumption.

[colts52761]

Even if he doesn't play 4 years, he may play 2 or 3. Why not draft Kalil if he is better than castanzo? We could have a offensive line of Lt - Kalil

Lg- Ijalana

C- Pollak

RG- Decastro - assuming we take him in second round, i know people will complain about drafting two more olineman

RT- Castonzo

We are helping manning and taking care of our oline needs for years and for the next qb.

[Mouthfire]

Even if he doesn't play 4 years, he may play 2 or 3. Why not draft Kalil if he is better than castanzo? We could have a offensive line of Lt - Kalil

Lg- Ijalana

C- Pollak

RG- Decastro - assuming we take him in second round, i know people will complain about drafting two more olineman

RT- Castonzo

We are helping manning and taking care of our oline needs for years and for the next qb.

This whole talk about drafting Kalil and shifting everyone around is just not a good idea. Assuming, like you say, Manning has 2-3 years left, you're going to waste 2 of those years by making everyone learn a new position. Particularly since continuity on the O line is so critical (not only do you have t know your position, you have to know how the person next to you reacts to every situation).... That's just doesn't seem like a good idea to me.

In any event, why would you want to add another player to what already looks like a young, promising O line, and completely ignore our biggest weakness this year: the defensive secondary? Especially when someone like Dre Kirkpatrick is sitting there? I like our chances for a SB next year so much better if we draft CB/NT/SS, rather than a rookie LT, when we already have two, young promising OTs.

[Mouthfire]

Ideally, here's how I see next year's draft going:

1) CB

2-4) NT, CB, OG, depending on the draft board

5) SS

6) WR

7) Depth pick

WR may move up as high as 2-3, depending on talent and whether we resign Reggie.

Remember, guys... as dominant as the Manning-led offenses have been in the past, we have never been able to win a Superbowl until the defense was playing at a high level. I just don't see that happening with this defensive unit as it stands. If we keep neglecting the defense with our early picks, then I'll bet Manning never wins another SB.

Edited October 20, 2011 by Mouthfire

[Ramblinwreck7]

For all of yall that want us to trade the #2 pick for a first and a 3rd, that's not a good value swap. Let's say Minesota gets the #5 overall pick in the 1st round and the 5th pick in the 2nd round. Those to picks are still not enough for the 2nd pick according to the draft value chart http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php. They would have to give us the 5th overall pick which is valued at 1700 points and the 17th overall pick which is valued at 900 points to equal the 2600 points that the 2nd overall pick is worth. We could probably get more than that if a team is desperate, but I'd take those 2 picks for the 2nd pick.

[doogansquest]

If a guy has a skill set that projects to more than one position .... does he REALLY have a "natural" position? Talent is versatile and to try and pigeon hole a guy as being just one single spot is a pretty narrow view. Yes, Ijilana played OT in college, but that's just the position he played in college. It does not mean mean he is not talented enough to make the transition to play OG, where many project his skill set as being the best fit. To make best use of talent available is also a reason teams have "coaches". To coach and teach.

Perhaps he will remain at OT and perhaps that IS where he might be best, but to so steadfastly refuse to recognize that he ALSO seems to have a skill set that translates to OG is tunnel vision. If Ijilana is so good, I am sure he can play either OT or OG. Therefore, if Kalil is there for the taking and if Kalil is indeed a once in a decade OT talent, I say, you take him and your line is THAT much better because of it.

The only basis of his skill set that projected to OG was his height. It had nothing to do with his play style, and none of the talking heads had any evidence, explanation, or sound reasoning otherwise. The only playing time he's had in the NFL was at LT backing up Castonzo. The best part? We didn't hear his name mentioned until the injury. That means he was doing his job.

He will play Tackle. We aren't going to move both Castonzo (a good LT, potential to be great), and Ijalana (who's played tackle almost exclusively), just to waste (yes, waste) a pick on another LT.

Edited October 20, 2011 by doogansquest

[Mouthfire]

The only basis of his skill set that projected to OG was his height. It had nothing to do with his play style, and none of the talking heads had any evidence, explanation, or sound reasoning otherwise. The only playing time he's had in the NFL was at LT backing up Castonzo. The best part? We didn't hear his name mentioned until the injury. That means he was doing his job.

He will play Tackle. We aren't going to move both Castonzo (a good LT, potential to be great), and Ijalana (who's played tackle almost exclusively), just to waste (yes, waste) a pick on another LT.

Actually, we're going to waste it on another QB to ride the pine ;)