Double A Breakdown: Week 7 vs Broncos

[Andy]

In what may be the most hyped up game in Colts history (and one of the most in recent NFL history), Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos will be coming to Indianapolis to face Andrew Luck and the Colts. The Broncos are off to maybe the best start in NFL history, whereas the Colts are 4-2 coming off a tough loss against the Chargers. The match features a battle between the young upstart and the city's old hero. It should be one of the games of the year.

 

What the Colts Need to do to Win

This may be the biggest game of Andrew Luck's young career. Every bit of spotlight is on him. The pressure is on him. All eyes are watching this 24 year old kid. He needs to step up and shine, and not fall under the pressure. The good news is, he never has, but has he ever had spotlight like this? He'll need to thrive in this game to have any chance of winning. 

To thrive, he'll need very good protection from his O-line. The Broncos will be getting Von Miller, who is returning from his 6 game suspension and he seems ready to go. Miller is one of the best, if not the best, pass rushers in the NFL and is a menace for any offensive lineman. He can line up against Anthony Castonzo or Gosder Cherilus. The Colts should have another blocker on Von Miller, on 3rd downs especially.  He needs to be accounted for. The Colts also need to watch out for Derek Wolfe and Robert Ayers. These guys are also problems and need to be accounted for.

To help avoid dangerous pass rushers like the 3 I named, the Colts should try and make some quick passes. Those quick passes get some nice little gains and it moves the ball. It could be a great way of moving the ball and keeping Manning off the field. Keeping Manning off the field for most of the game may not be enough (look at the Week 2 2009 Dolphins game), as they'll probably need something from their defense, but it will help a lot. To help the offensive line, they need to start establishing a short to intermediate passing game. It doesn't mean a more conservative gameplan, it just means a safer passing attack.

As for the running game, if the Colts want to have a balanced attack, they'll need a running game. They had no impact from their running game last week and it was obvious. If they intend to have a gameplan that keeps Manning off the field, they'll need to have some sort of running game. The Colts were almost even in snaps, and it shows that the coaches are willing to give Brown a chance. They compliment each other pretty well, so it's nice to mix it up. The offensive line will have to create holes up the gut because that's where the COlts like to run it most often.

Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton and Darrius Heyward Bey will have some pretty good matchups against the Broncos' secondary. The outside receiver vs Dominic Rodgers Cromartie will most likely be shut down on long passes beacuse of Rodgers-Cromartie's speed, but they can be him over the middle. Their cornerbacks are pretty weak compared to the secondaries the Colts have played. Reggie Wayne should be targeted, especially in the slot. They don't have great guys to stack up against him and will only be shut down when they decide to have a linebacker spy on him or bring down a safety. Fleener will have a tough time against the Broncos' linebackers but is a target in the redzone, if he catches the ball that is.

The offensive philosophy should be to have a pass happy short passing attack. As much as the Colts need to establish the ball, I think it's obvious that Luck needs the ball in his hands more than 50% of the time. That's why I said pass happy, not pass heavy.

As for the defense...

The defensive line will be big in clogging up holes. The Broncos don't tend to run in between the guards, but they run in the 4 and 5 hole which are situated in between the tackles and guards. Cory Redding will need to get his one on one matchups and rip into the back field. If you watch Redding, he has all of his sacks on one on one matchups and is completely shut down on double teams. Makes sense right? They need to find the right matchups. They should bring down a linebacker (to blitz) to give Redding a good matchup. 

The linebackers will have a big role in the game. They must read Peyton Manning (which as Colts fans know, is harder than running for president) and shutting down the running game. To shut down the running game, they'll need to cover all the holes and make proper tackles. If you watch last week's tape, they had good gap control, but they missed plenty of tackles. If they can't tackle, it completely destroys having a gap control system. They need to tackle. It's that freagin simple. Make your tackles and everything will end up ok. Robert Mathis and Erik Walden will have decent matchups on the outside. If backup right tackle Winston Justice plays, they should definitely put Mathis against him. Justice struggles with speed rushers and Mathis is a very good speed rusher. They need to find the right matchups when it comes to pass rushing. Chris Clark is actually very good as a replacement for Ryan Clady and will be a tough matchup for most pass rushers. It doesn't mean they should put Mathis away from him, I'm just saying, move them around a bit. Jerrell Freeman will most likely have to cover Julius Thomas, which could be tough. He'll need to stick close to him and stay tight to his body. The Colts should not play a lot of zone this game. They should leave it up to the players. Manning kills zone defenses. 

In the secondary, they will have the toughest role this game. They'll have to cover Peyton Manning and the best receiving core in the NFL. Vontae Davis will go up against Demaryius Thomas for most of the game. Thomas loves going deep, so Davis should be wary of those deep passes. Greg Toler will most likely get Eric Decker for most of the game. He'll need to watch out for the intermediate passes. Darius Butler will go up against Wes Welker, the Colt killer. Butler is good, but Welker is a nightmare for any nickelback. They'll need to have a safety watch him over the top or have a linebacker watch him in the box (for inside passes). They need to watch out for Welker especially. As for the safeties, they must play off today. They have to shut down any deep passes. The Broncos love going deep on several passes each game and the safeties must be there time after time to knock down or even intercept the passes. There cannot be more than a couple of big plays. They need to limit those big plays and playing off will do that. If Landry plays, they should maybe bring Landry down on certain plays, but try and disguise it because Manning will read it.

The defensive philosophy should be to find mismatches in the front 7, have the linebackers take over the open gaps, have the safeties play pretty deep and the cornerbacks should be in man coverage. They need to contain Manning. They can't play like the Cowboys' defense against him.

 

 

What the Broncos Need to do to Win

On offense, the Broncos have a lot of good matchups. Peyton Manning must find those mismatches and exploit them constantly. He's great at doing that too. The Colts are most probably preparing for Peyton Manning, and not necessarily spending an equal amount of time on Knowshon Moreno. The Broncos should try and utilize a 60-40 pass happy attack. They should definitely mix it up with the running game, especially with how Moreno has been playing (and even get Hillman involved).

In the passing game, they'll need to give Manning great protection. If he gets protection, he'll be able to find his man. As far as protection, left tackle Chris Clark must watch out for Robert Mathis, the guy he'll be facing for most of the night. Mathis is explosive and uses his speed to get around tackles. This means that Clark must have a good, quick first step and jab back quickly in order to stay with Mathis. If he's slow off the line, Mathis will get to Peyton. The best way to stop Mathis is to keep him to the outside and then Manning moves up in the pocket. Most of Mathis' sacks come from him beating the tackle's outside shoulder. Manning should target Wes Welker who is going up against Darius Butler and is known as a Colt killer. As mentioned, they just need to find the mismatches.

In the running game, they should definitely utilize the hot Knowshon Moreno who is having a big year so far. He needs to be used runs to the outside and to through the 4 and 5 holes on the offensive line. They need to get him going to take some pressure off Peyton Manning and to keep Luck off the field. The Colts will try and keep Manning off the field. The Broncos should do the same with Luck. The Chargers did it to perfection last week and held the Colts to 9 points. If they can control the time of possesion clock, they'll win easily.

The offensive philosophy should be to have a slightly pass happy attack and exploit the mismatches like Wes Welker vs Darius Butler (Butler isn't a sloutch though).

On defense, they'll need to pressure Luck. They have Von Miller back and they'll have to use him a lot in pass pressure situations. They should also use Robert Ayes and Derek Wolfe. They should even bring Travathan on some blitzes. If they get Luck playing from behind and he gets pressured, he does not play his best. He did not play well against pressure last week. 

The defense wants to the Colts to go pass heavy. Luck is a great quarterback but that whole team is easier to read when they become pass happy. They have predictable run plays, but again, they're easy to read when they pass a lot. 

The winner of the turnover battle may be the winner of the game, so, make a play Broncos secondary. Luck isn't perfect all the time. 

The defensive philosophy should be to get pressure on Luck, especially if they take the lead. To get pressure on Luck, they should utilize linebacker blitzes and use Von Miller all day. In coverage, they should be in aggressive man to man coverage. Zone coverage and blitzes do not work against Andrew Luck.

 

Intriguing Matchups

The Broncos' pass rush vs the Colts' O-line is perhaps the biggest battle in terms of both sides being on the field. However, the biggest matchup in general is no doubt, 100% Andrew Luck vs Peyton Manning. Luck succeeded Manning in Indianapolis, the place Manning called home for 14 years. The winner of this battle will, and I can say this with almost 100% certainty, win the game. 

 

Bold Statement

Andrew Luck outduels Peyton Manning.

 

Prediction

Indianapolis Colts 34 vs Denver Broncos 31

*Note: Have you ever seen the Colts play with tons of motivation? They can beat anyone. The Broncos are the better team, but not tomorrow night*