Why Trading Our 1st Rnd Pick may not hurt as much...

[Bleedin Blue]

I had been thinking about this when the trade orginally went down, but as thIs season has progressed it's becoming even more likely.  Today I saw this article on NFL.com and got me thinking about this even more.  There could be as many as 9 teams looking for quarterbacks in this draft.  Here is who I think will be gunning for a new QB:

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (1st round)
2. Tampa Bay Bucks (1st round)
3. Minnesota Vikings (1st round)
4. Cleveland Browns (1st round)
5. Houston Texans (1st or 2nd round)
6. Tennesee Titans (2nd round)
7. Arizona Cardinals (2nd round)
8. New England (2nd round)
9. St. Louis (who knows)

 

Since all of these teams are likely to have records worse than ours this year they will pick ahead of us in the 2nd round.  Each pick pushes down better players to where we will likely pick in the high 50's (knock on wood).  I think we could be in a great spot to pick up a new #1 receiver, stud OT or pass rusher.  

[coltsfanatic24]

I agree, teams will always reach for QB's and some really good players with first round talent will fall to the 2nd round.

 

Here's some players that might be there in the late 2nd round

 

ILB Christian Jones, Florida State

OG Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State

WR Donte Moncrief, Ole Miss

OLB Adrian Hubbard, Alabama

DE Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame

CB Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech

 

Any of those players i'd be ok with us drafting

[cm43sports]

I agree, teams will always reach for QB's and some really good players with first round talent will fall to the 2nd round.

 

Here's some players that might be there in the late 2nd round

 

ILB Christian Jones, Florida State

OG Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State

WR Donte Moncrief, Ole Miss

OLB Adrian Hubbard, Alabama

DE Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame

CB Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech

 

Any of those players i'd be ok with us drafting

I like Tuitt and I wouldn't be upset with Hubbard (as long as he gets Pagano's vote of confidence). I would also keep an eye on Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama). 

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

I like Tuitt and I wouldn't be upset with Hubbard (as long as he gets Pagano's vote of confidence). I would also keep an eye on Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama). 

That will be hard since he's been kicked off the team.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

I agree, teams will always reach for QB's and some really good players with first round talent will fall to the 2nd round.

 

Here's some players that might be there in the late 2nd round

 

ILB Christian Jones, Florida State

OG Gabe Jackson, Mississippi State

WR Donte Moncrief, Ole Miss

OLB Adrian Hubbard, Alabama

DE Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame

CB Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech

 

Any of those players i'd be ok with us drafting

I really like Fuller.

[cm43sports]

That will be hard since he's been kicked off the team.

I know he was suspended indefinitely but I thought he would be playing again? What happened? 

[coltsfanatic24]

I like Tuitt and I wouldn't be upset with Hubbard (as long as he gets Pagano's vote of confidence). I would also keep an eye on Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama). 

I had Clinton - Dix in my mock a while ago but that's before Delano Howell played so well and before he got suspended. I do think will resign Bethea but even if we don't Howell proved that's he's versatile enough to play either safety position. Were set at safety we need more pass rushers and a WR more then anything.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

I know he was suspended indefinitely but I thought he would be playing again? What happened? 

He won't play again for Alabama if they want avoid NCAA sanctions.  That's my opinion anyway.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

I had Clinton - Dix in my mock a while ago but that's before Delano Howell played so well and before he got suspended. I do think will resign Bethea but even if we don't Howell proved that's he's versatile enough to play either safety position. Were set at safety we need more pass rushers and a WR more then anything.

Ditto to everything.

[cm43sports]

Bethea is almost 30 and Landry has proven to be injury prone. If Landry is out (likely at least one game during the game, probably more) and Howell takes his spot, then who is behind them? If Clinton-Dix slips then grab him. Let him sit a year or two, maybe 3 but I doubt it, and we'll have a star at safety.

 

I had Clinton - Dix in my mock a while ago but that's before Delano Howell played so well and before he got suspended. I do think will resign Bethea but even if we don't Howell proved that's he's versatile enough to play either safety position. Were set at safety we need more pass rushers and a WR more then anything.

 

Makes sense but you never know. Hopefully he falls even further in the draft then.

 

He won't play again for Alabama if they want avoid NCAA sanctions.  That's my opinion anyway.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

Bethea is almost 30 and Landry has proven to be injury prone. If Landry is out (likely at least one game during the game, probably more) and Howell takes his spot, then who is behind them? If Clinton-Dix slips then grab him. Let him sit a year or two, maybe 3 but I doubt it, and we'll have a star at safety.

 

 

Makes sense but you never know. Hopefully he falls even further in the draft then.

30 is not old for a safety.  The top tier safeties tend to make it to 33-34 before falling off, and Bethea is a top tier safety.

[coltsfanatic24]

Bethea is almost 30 and Landry has proven to be injury prone. If Landry is out (likely at least one game during the game, probably more) and Howell takes his spot, then who is behind them? If Clinton-Dix slips then grab him. Let him sit a year or two, maybe 3 but I doubt it, and we'll have a star at safety.

 

 

Makes sense but you never know. Hopefully he falls even further in the draft then.

We can draft a safety in the 5th round that's the least of our worries. Safety is one of the few positions that plays well into their mid 30's, pass rush and WR are much bigger needs.

[sreylas937]

I don't see Tuitt dropping all the way to where we pick in the second round, I see Both Him and Nix from ND as mid first round picks

[cm43sports]

30 is not old for a safety.  The top tier safeties tend to make it to 33-34 before falling off, and Bethea is a top tier safety.

I said sit Clinton-Dix for two years which would put Bethea at 32 which is about the age safeties decline.

 

We can draft a safety in the 5th round that's the least of our worries. Safety is one of the few positions that plays well into their mid 30's, pass rush and WR are much bigger needs.

Free safeties start to decline in their early 30s and strong safeties usually wear down even faster. Bethea played a good portion of his career as a strong safety which wears down your body faster (think Troy in Pittsburg or Sanders when he was here). On the pass-rush they have Mathis and Werner and I'm sure Pagano and Grigson can find another gem. I am a HUGE fan of Josh Gordon's and would be ecstatic if they traded for him.

[coltsfanatic24]

I said sit Clinton-Dix for two years which would put Bethea at 32 which is about the age safeties decline.

 

Free safeties start to decline in their early 30s and strong safeties usually wear down even faster. Bethea played a good portion of his career as a strong safety which wears down your body faster (think Troy in Pittsburg or Sanders when he was here). On the pass-rush they have Mathis and Werner and I'm sure Pagano and Grigson can find another gem. I am a HUGE fan of Josh Gordon's and would be ecstatic if they traded for him.

Sitting a safety for 2 years isn't a good idea, if your drafted in the 2nd round you should be starting or have a significant role on the team. Drafting a WR, ILB, or pass rusher will have a greater impact on the team.

[cm43sports]

Sitting a safety for 2 years isn't a good idea, if your drafted in the 2nd round you should be starting or have a significant role on the team. Drafting a WR, ILB, or pass rusher will have a greater impact on the team.

The only defensive pass rushers that would be there and in my estimation (which means little in the grand scheme of things) worth it would be: Stephon Tuitt 3-4 DE, Adrian Hubbard 3-4 OLB and Aaron Lynch who could play either. In all honesty I'd love to pick up Rolando McClain (ILB) and trade for Josh Gordon (WR). Those are two potential stars that are just sitting around waiting for someone to unleash their potential. If it is DBs or pass rushers, I respect your opinion but I would rather add a potential star DB.

[cm43sports]

More so than Clinton-Dix, if Bradley Roby keeps dropping and is there for our pick then I would be doing cartwheels. Toler just really scares me.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

More so than Clinton-Dix, if Bradley Roby keeps dropping and is there for our pick then I would be doing cartwheels. Toler just really scares me.

Jared Abbrederis made Roby look like a fool 2 weeks ago.

[cm43sports]

Jared Abbrederis made Roby look like a fool 2 weeks ago.

So? It happens. Stevie Johnson has a history of beating Revis. T.Y. Holton practically tore apart the best secondary in the league almost single handed. Sometimes the offense wins. Roby was also playing his first game I believe. It doesn't mean he's a bad player, just means he had a bad day.

[NewColtsFan]

That will be hard since he's been kicked off the team.

 

I don't believe he's been kicked off...   at least, not to the best of my knowledge...

 

I believe he's been suspended indefinitely....   so, he could be brought back by the team at some point....

 

At least,  I think that's the case....

[cm43sports]

I don't believe he's been kicked off...   at least, not to the best of my knowledge...

 

I believe he's been suspended indefinitely....   so, he could be brought back by the team at some point....

 

At least,  I think that's the case....

That's what I was thinking.

[jamesie jr]

I think we did right getting Richardson with our first. There will be a lot of good talent falling to later rounds. Plus i can imagine us if we keep Bradshaw, we could a 4 horsemen esque backfield. 

[Valpo2004]

I think we did right getting Richardson with our first. There will be a lot of good talent falling to later rounds. Plus i can imagine us if we keep Bradshaw, we could a 4 horsemen esque backfield. 

 

I was for that before, but I'm not sure now.  He came in with injury concerns and survived only 4 games.  I would say either draft a guy or sign a guy in FA.

 

Heck keeping Donald Brown if he is willing to take a smaller contract is looking like it's not a bad idea. 

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

So? It happens. Stevie Johnson has a history of beating Revis. T.Y. Holton practically tore apart the best secondary in the league almost single handed. Sometimes the offense wins. Roby was also playing his first game I believe. It doesn't mean he's a bad player, just means he had a bad day.

Roby was playing in his first game? What?

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

I don't believe he's been kicked off...   at least, not to the best of my knowledge...

 

I believe he's been suspended indefinitely....   so, he could be brought back by the team at some point....

 

At least,  I think that's the case....

Nick Saban won't let him play.  If he does the Tide will get hit with sanctions.  At least that's how I look at it.

[cm43sports]

Roby was playing in his first game? What?

Wasn't Roby playing his first game back from suspension? I might be wrong

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

Wasn't Roby playing his first game back from suspension? I might be wrong

He didn't play the first game vs. Buffalo but he's been playing since.  Don't get me wrong Roby is a very good CB, but he has shown (at least so far) he's not the shutdown CB people though he was going to be.

[cm43sports]

He didn't play the first game vs. Buffalo but he's been playing since.  Don't get me wrong Roby is a very good CB, but he has shown (at least so far) he's not the shutdown CB people though he was going to be.

That's fine. He doesn't have to be Revis or Deion Sanders. I would like to say nobody saw Sherman as a shutdown corner lol. I believe that he'll be fine and longterm he'll be in the upper half of good corners. Vontae Davis and Roby with Darius Butler or Toler is a VERY good set of cornerbacks.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

That's fine. He doesn't have to be Revis or Deion Sanders. I would like to say nobody saw Sherman as a shutdown corner lol. I believe that he'll be fine and longterm he'll be in the upper half of good corners. Vontae Davis and Roby with Darius Butler or Toler is a VERY good set of cornerbacks.

I think you think I'm arguing with you but I'm not.  You originally said if Roby keeps falling and we could take him we should.  I agree with that.  I was saying he got embarrassed by Abbrederis and he's not quite living up to his 1st round grade right now.  I was just reinforcing your idea about him potentially dropping.  Sorry if I sounded like I was just arguing with you.

[BOTT]

So? It happens. Stevie Johnson has a history of beating Revis. T.Y. Holton practically tore apart the best secondary in the league almost single handed. Sometimes the offense wins. Roby was also playing his first game I believe. It doesn't mean he's a bad player, just means he had a bad day.

They were saying on espn radio that Roby looked like crap vs Northwestern too....don't know if it's true or not.

[cm43sports]

I think you think I'm arguing with you but I'm not.  You originally said if Roby keeps falling and we could take him we should.  I agree with that.  I was saying he got embarrassed by Abbrederis and he's not quite living up to his 1st round grade right now.  I was just reinforcing your idea about him potentially dropping.  Sorry if I sounded like I was just arguing with you.

I thought you were saying he wouldn't be worth our pick. My bad.

[Gavin]

Kyle Van Noy at OLB or Jordan Matthews-wr or Donte Moncrief-wr or Khalil Mack-olb whoever falls, way to early

[cm43sports]

Kyle Van Noy at OLB or Jordan Matthews-wr or Donte Moncrief-wr or Khalil Mack-olb whoever falls, way to early

I absolutely love Khalil Mack but he just keeps rising. I don't care for Van Noy and none of the WRs this year stick out to me other than Sammy Watkins.

[Gavin]

I absolutely love Khalil Mack but he just keeps rising. I don't care for Van Noy and none of the WRs this year stick out to me other than Sammy Watkins.

Matthews and Mocrief both have size and speed to beat you deep and pretty decent hands, Van Noy is an all around OLB, his size at 235 is a bit small but he is exlosive off the snap and he can drop back in a short zone, He may never turn out to be a sack machine like Mathis but he should be better at stopping the run

[cm43sports]

I just believe we should trade for Gordon to shore up WR and then draft Roby aid Clinton-Dix

[esmort]

 

I had been thinking about this when the trade orginally went down, but as thIs season has progressed it's becoming even more likely.  Today I saw this article on NFL.com and got me thinking about this even more.  There could be as many as 9 teams looking for quarterbacks in this draft.  Here is who I think will be gunning for a new QB:

 

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (1st round)
2. Tampa Bay Bucks (1st round)
3. Minnesota Vikings (1st round)
4. Cleveland Browns (1st round)
5. Houston Texans (1st or 2nd round)
6. Tennesee Titans (2nd round)
7. Arizona Cardinals (2nd round)
8. New England (2nd round)
9. St. Louis (who knows)

 

Since all of these teams are likely to have records worse than ours this year they will pick ahead of us in the 2nd round.  Each pick pushes down better players to where we will likely pick in the high 50's (knock on wood).  I think we could be in a great spot to pick up a new #1 receiver, stud OT or pass rusher.  

 

 

Based on the article I would argue the opposite ...  if 9 QBs are drafted in the 1st round losing the 1st round pick hurts more.  If 9 QBs were to go in the 1st round and we had a lower 1st round pick we could possibly be in a position to pick up an elite player that fell. 

 

Moving up 9 spots in the bottom of the second round still leaves us in pretty much the same talent pool we were already in... and it might not have any impact at all because by then team draft boards really begin to start varying on the value/ranking of players.

[Bleedin Blue]

Based on the article I would argue the opposite ...  if 9 QBs are drafted in the 1st round losing the 1st round pick hurts more.  If 9 QBs were to go in the 1st round and we had a lower 1st round pick we could possibly be in a position to pick up an elite player that fell. 

 

Moving up 9 spots in the bottom of the second round still leaves us in pretty much the same talent pool we were already in... and it might not have any impact at all because by then team draft boards really begin to start varying on the value/ranking of players.

 

Not having a 1st round pick doesn't not hurt.  That's not the point I'm trying to make.  What I said was that a run on quarterbacks could help to make it hurt less.  It's simple...we're not going to draft a quarterback.  We are going to draft many other positions. CB, OLB, ILB, DT, WR are all more valuable to us and the likelihood is that there will be a few more players there at the 5x^th pick that might not have been otherwise. 

[bap1331]

Don't forget Denver!!

Oh gosh now that I think about it, I'm so glad we got luck!!!