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Here's a statistical analysis for return on investment of our draft picks done by PFF: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams The analysis is based on PFF's WAR metric(wins above replacement). I won't quote the whole thing, but if you are interested, it's worth checking out the whole article with all explanations about their graphs. I will just post the main graphs with what they show... First... Total WAR added by those 4 classes since 2017: Colts are at no. 11 in the league and the Chiefs are no. 1 thanks mainly to Mahomes. It's interesting to see that ALL of the teams with good young QBs drafted in that period are in the top 10 - Chiefs(Mahomes), Ravens(Lamar), Texans(Watson), Bills(Allen), Browns(Mayfield). Also worth pointing out that the top 2 teams are the 2 teams in this year's Superbowl, which underlines the importance of the draft towards building a winning team. And the Texans' value is derived almost single-handedly by Watson - the picks other than Watson have contributed negative WAR combined for the Texans. The next graph is what PFF calls "draft consistency". It includes not just the WAR, but it weighs it based on draft position and on-field position. Here's where the Colts do very very well: The Colts are the best team at draft consistency in the last 4 years. An interesting tidbit from the discussion in the article here is that Mahomes has had total WAR of 11 for those 4 years(best QB - 99.99 percentile drafted at no. 10), while the projected WAR for Nelson(best guard drafted in top 10 - 99.99 percentile) is just 1.6WAR. This just comes to show just how much more valuable QB is than even a generational guard. Here's what PFF writes about Colts' draft consistency and why they come 1st in that metric: The third graph is weighing the WAR production by round(the example given - top 10 pick succeeding in the 90th percentile usually gives you about 2.0 WAR, while 90th percentile success for a 7th round pick gives you just about 0.2WAR.). Dot's size indicates the weight(round) of each pick : Colts again rank very well at no. 2 in the league here. And here's the last graph in which they take into account positional value: Still the Colts rank in the top 5. And finally they ask the question - does that mean that certain GMs are better than others at evaluating draft eligible players and the answer is interesting... You can read the rationale on the link above... -
quick update, wife is doing much better and while some side effects still linger, she's up and moving and even voluntarily went back to work after her doctor approved it. -
Charles / Christian whoever Mr C. Darrisaw ftw lol guess I need more coffee myself. Then again I did leave my reading glasses elsewhere last night... Bengals draft history of #1 picks and ending up on IR or out for long periods of time was the storyline here within 6 of the past years. Odds don't look good for year #7 if you are superstitious. The Bengals already have a QB and LT they draft and the could really use a TE but really need a RT and upgraded guards. Sewell projections never made sense to us here in Ohio. Lesson learned in the NFL is to protect the QB. Guess they could stay put and draft that TE then a center early in the 2nd would solve some of the Bengals issues. To keep the masses happy and get that franchise LT and reduce that cost of overpaying 4 OL at least this mock would help take care of that and then some while also resetting our Edges plus backfilling players lost in FA for OL depth. -
Turay has had 2 good games against bad OTs in his career. All other games he's been avaerage. No more "raw" DEs with upside please. At least not before the 4th or 5th round. Take players who can actually play in rounds 1 through 3. All of the DEs and DTs Ballard has drafted should not have been taken before round 4, with Grover being the best, and who was taken in round 4 (Or 5). And he did not draft Buckner, he traded for a known quantity. -
you all need some coffee and try reading over the whole thread again. Offer is to trade Kelly and our 2nd round pick...post was updated not giving away our 5th Rest of you all need to go back a year or so and look over the Colts beat writer and value of trading away our top players and what it would command for each for Leonard, Kelly, and Nelson as the top 3 and he broke it down even farther per trades for rest of Colts top players. Again I have Darrisaw going before Sewell so really not a big shocker but yes one trade could lead to another if the Colts wanted to purse a QB. At least this scenario allows the Colts, again in my opinion to draft the best LT available early, and again we took Nelson 6th overall so no a stretch of imagination. Then trade back with the Packers and select the best center available who is a Kelly clone if not better younger version. Sounds like the Colts hit two home runs if this is baseball in the first. Remind who's on second of that's right we won't have a second round pick under this assumption.
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