Schwamm Sez: Draft Day Strategy (3)

[schwamm]

For reference, previous Shwamm Sez posts can be found here:

 

Intro:  Introduction

 

Basics (1):  Know and Understand Your League's Scoring

Basics (2): Know Your Opponents

Basics (3):  Know the Talent

Basics (4):  Be Consistent, Not a Homer

 

Draft Prep (1):  Player Analysis Tools

Draft Prep (2):  Average Draft Position Analysis

Draft Prep (3):  Schwamm's Draft Cheat Sheet

 

Draft Day Strategy (1):  Schwamm's Rules to Draft by

Draft Day Strategy (2):  A Deeper Look at QB vs. RB

 

The FF Season (1):  Managing Trades and Waivers

The FF Season (2):  Managing Your Roster

 

I apologize for jumping around a little, but I think it might be useful to discuss a couple issues with draft order, and how they might affect your chances of a successful season (especially now that several of the forum leagues have already drafted... ).

 

 

ON ODDS OF SUCCESS FROM YOUR DRAFT POSITION:

 

Over the years, I've seen a number of articles suggesting research that "proves" that certain draft positions are more likely to lead to successful seasons than others.  I tried to track some down for your reference, but wasn't having any luck, and didn't think  it was worth my time.  Suffice it to say, many experts seem to feel that drafting early is the best option, followed by drafting late, with the middle as least preferred.

 

While draft order may give a small leg up to less proficient FFers competing in hack leagues, I really don't agree that it has much affect in more competitive leagues.  I've won from every position on the board, and have developed my own affinity for drafting from the middle.  I guess I feel it gives me the best opportunity to draft for balance, to force my competitors to get thrown out of their strategies in response to what I'm doing, and to get players I want while sticking with my game plan.

 

Bottom line, if you know where you are drafting in advance, try to develop a reasonable strategy that accounts for your position.  If you are drafting from the 10 spot, for instance, clinging to some hope that Arian Foster might fall to you is silly.  Run a bunch of mocks from that position, and see if you can craft a strategy that helps you collect the best value in each round.

 

ON WHY THE FIRST ROUND REQUIRES ITS OWN STRATEGY:

 

I think there is a tendency to put an emphasis on the early rounds, but the first round is by far my least favorite.  Let's let that sink in for a sec...

 

I addressed this earlier, but I think it merits an expanded discussion.  As I've said, I focus 100% on trying to make sure I get value with every pick.  By that, I mean that I want to find guys who are most likely to out-produce their draft position, and avoid guys who are likely to fall short of expectations.  That is nearly impossible in round 1.  The best you can do is meet expectations.

 

We can certainly agree that success in the first round is the cornerstone of any great fantasy team... but I think it is useful to understand that "busts" are commonplace in the first round (see McCoy, Matthews or MJD last year), and in most seasons, a few middle to late rounders claim top 5 status at their respective positions by years end (see Alfred Morris).

 

For my money, EVERY first round pick has questions attached to them.  For instance, Peterson had a spectacular season last year, but history would suggest that RBs don't usually follow up that kind of success with similar stats the following year.  There is almost always a modest to significant drop in production.  I'm not generally inclined to bet against a freak of nature like AD, but it is enough to give me pause.  For a variety of reasons, I can typically find concerns for every other likely first rounder.

 

So, what can you do to make the most of your first pick?

 

The most consistently successful FF players find ways to avoid the big first round busts, and to dig up the middle to late round gems.  I think I've covered the framework for how to find the value players, but avoiding the busts is a different approach.

 

My recommendation is that you play the first round (and possibly second round) from a risk management perspective.  Analyze each player (RBs only, if it is my call), and adjust your first round rankings based on "least risk".  I would probably still have AP first, but there have been plenty of instances where I've had the first pick, and ignored "conventional wisdom" in favor of taking a guy I thought was far safer.

 

I like to think of it as laying a solid foundation in the first round (or two), and allowing myself to be increasingly creative as the draft progresses.

 

 

[chad72]

Sometimes, overanalysis can come back to bite you too in FF.

 

I learnt that early in my FF years. Back in 2009, when the Chargers were having their usual run in December under Norv Turner, I had played Philip Rivers 3 weeks in a row and for the championship game, I benched him in favor of Schaub because Schaub had such a friendly matchup and that cost me the championship because Rivers lit it up again. Once, in London, knowing the forecast is rain, I benched Drew Brees in 2008 in favor of Big Ben in a sunny and friendly matchup. That backfired too.

 

The lesson learnt, go with the horses that got you the wins in the first place and if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Those were my first 2 years of FF and I learnt those lessons the hard way.

 

Last year, after a big year in 2011 of passing, Matt Ryan won FF championships for so many owners that drafted a QB later in rounds 4 or 5. Falcons had been so run oriented and they finally decided to let Ryan wing it out, and FF owners benefited. Michael Vick, the year he came back and lit up the league, a lot of guys took fliers on him and benefited. Those things are hard to predict.

 

Stevan Ridley, Alfred Morris - those were all week 2 waiver pickups that won championships for a lot of folks.

 

 

Ultimately, the draft is just half the battle. Building depth with waivers over the course of the season is the remaining half of the battle, IMO. You cannot win it just based on a good draft but you can lose it with a bad draft.

[schwamm]

Good insights, Chad. I referenced over analysis in my intro... and while the point wasn't made as clearly, I mention that work is not nearly done at draft end in my FF Season (1) post.

I'm inclined to feel that the problem (for me) isn't over analysis. Rather it's occasionally a problem with over emphasizing a less important nugget of info (like weather condition over a simple decision of who is likely better in your Rivers v. Big Ben example).

To paraphrase what you are suggesting... knowledge IS power, but only if you know how to wield it.