Schwamm Sez: Intro

[schwamm]

Over the next few weeks, I intend to post ideas to help some of the newer or less experienced fantasy football team owners understand the game a little better.  There is no way I could possibly share the entirety of my strategy, nor would I want to take the time to do so… so I am just passing on some general concepts.  Adopt what you want.  Discard the rest.

 

I cannot, and will not, guarantee that these concepts alone will help you succeed.  You will have to fill in the gaps on your own.  What they ought to do for you, though, is help you establish a method and, eventually, better results.

 

What I will guarantee:  for every concept I post, there will be other players who have a different method or mindset, and they may be inclined to interject.  It could prove useful and interesting for some of you to see all the different approaches to this game, but it might also create confusion if they aren't willing to thoroughly explain themselves.  All I can do is lay out the groundwork for the way I've played the game.  I can't ultimately explain other methods.

 

You will likely see some repeated themes running through all the commentary I share. 

 

1.  As a rule, I am always looking for CONSISTENCY, in my ability to draft solid teams, in the way my teams score, and in the results at the end of each season (i.e. Playoffs and Trophies). 

 

2.  I approach all drafts, all trades, and all waiver wire transactions with an eye on VALUE, and strive to avoid, at all costs, the big reach that flops. 

 

3.  I’m a firm believer that KNOWLEDGE is power (but heuristics would suggest that there is a point at which too much knowledge can muddy things... paralysis by analysis...).

 

At its core, I would assert that success in fantasy football comes down to two things (maybe super obvious, maybe not):

 

1.  It is less about stats and analysis than it is about your ability to interpret that information and make more accurate projections and better decisions more frequently than your competitors.

 

2.  It is less about having the right names on your roster, drafting from any particular spot, or following some script on what positions to draft in which rounds, than it is about doing a better job than you competitors at building and maintaining a team that consistently scores more points.

 

So let's see if I can share a few insights, and help you develop your own systems and methods that lead you to find more enjoyment and success in playing this game.

[pacolts56]

Okay I'll give it a whirl, Schwamm...I'm old but I've only played FF for 7 years thanks to 60 hour work weeks....and only ever had time for 1 league.

 

My question....

 

Do you tend to avoid players with new coaching staffs such as is the case with Philly and KC this year? There are several guys on both those teams who theoretically COULD flourish in their new systems....but sometimes that doesn't happen, or at least not until the season is well under way....which can be too late in FFL.

 

This mostly pertains to Philadelphia with guys like Shady McCoy and their WRs under a coach fresh out of college.....but it also has ramifications with the Chiefs offense for Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles.

 

With the unknowns around what Chip Kelly will try to do and how NFL defenses will combat it....and how Andy Reid's system will mesh in KC....would you avoid or de-value the Eagles or Chiefs skill position guys?

 

Thanks

 

PS....congrats on the little guy!

 

 

[schwamm]

Okay I'll give it a whirl, Schwamm...I'm old but I've only played FF for 7 years thanks to 60 hour work weeks....and only ever had time for 1 league.

My question....

Do you tend to avoid players with new coaching staffs such as is the case with Philly and KC this year? There are several guys on both those teams who theoretically COULD flourish in their new systems....but sometimes that doesn't happen, or at least not until the season is well under way....which can be too late in FFL.

This mostly pertains to Philadelphia with guys like Shady McCoy and their WRs under a coach fresh out of college.....but it also has ramifications with the Chiefs offense for Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles.

With the unknowns around what Chip Kelly will try to do and how NFL defenses will combat it....and how Andy Reid's system will mesh in KC....would you avoid or de-value the Eagles or Chiefs skill position guys?

Thanks

PS....congrats on the little guy!

Thanks for the question. I'll do my best to answer, but first let me clarify...

I'd generally like to try to avoid these kinds of specific questions, at least in the Schwamm Sez threads... First, because I'm hoping to relay an overall structure/way of approaching the game and encourage people to formulate their own opinions about situations like what you've described. And second, because getting out of active participation in leagues has me far less informed on the details.

Depending on how useful people find these strategy posts, I'm willing to consider fielding more questions like yours in a separate format.

That said...

I would respond by saying it depends. I'm more comfortable with KC's transition to Reid, just because Reid is a known commodity. Charles's fragility would concern me more than the coaching change, and I think Bowe will benefit more from the upgrade at QB than from Reid. Without all the research, I might assume Bowe will see an improvement in play, and I'd guess Charles will remain an early first round back.

Kelly does concern me, though, just because I don't have a clear sense of how his game will translate. You could argue that things like the wildcat and the like have caught NFL Ds napping in the first season they've been used, and it's possible Kelly can do the same. I'm not sure I'm prepared to devalue or bump any Eagles skill players yet, but if roughly equal talent is available, I might be more comfortable letting someone else take the chance on them. On the other hand, if owners are shying away, and they are available as a value, I'd be all over that.