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How much of a jump do you expect luck to make in season two?


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I'm looking for Luck to become more consistent. He needs to become a faster starter, so he doesnt need to pull as many game winning drives as he did last year due to being slow in the 1st half. I'd like him to become more consistent on the road as well.

I'm looking for around 25 TDs with 3 rushing TDs, and no more than 12-15 INTs. But I would be disappointed if he didn't hit 60-62% on his completions.

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For reference Peyton Manning has only one season with over 38 TD's. . . the 49 he threw in 2004.  All his other seasons have been below that number

 

Peyton Mannning has 1 season with 9 Int's (2006) all other seasons where higher. 

 

Peyton Manning has never equaled a 70% completion percentage

 

Peyton Manning has never thrown for 4777 yards.  His highest was 4700 in 2010

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/1428/peyton-manning

 

 

Tom Brady has 2 seasons throwing for 38 TD's or more.  2011 (39) and 2007 (50)

 

Tom Brady has 3 seasons (in which he played a full slate of games) where he threw 9 or less Ints 2007 (8) 2010 (4) 2012 (8)

 

Tom Brady has never equaled a 70% completion percentage over a season

 

Tom Brady has only thrown over 4777 yards 3 times 2007 (4806) 2011 (5235) 2012 (4827)

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/2330/tom-brady

 

 

Drew Brees has 2 seasons throwing 38 or more TD's  2011 (46) 2012 (43)

 

 

Drew Brees has only one season (2004) in which he played the majority of his team's games and threw less then 9 Int's.  He played 15 games that year.  

 

Drew Brees has 3 seasons throwing more then 4777 yards 2008 (5069), 2011 (5476), 2012 (5177)

 

Drew Brees has exceeded 70% completion percentage twice 2009 (70.6) and 2011 (71.2)

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/2580/drew-brees

 

 

Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 38 or more TD's in only 2 seasons 2011 (45) and 2012 (39)

 

Aaron Rodgers has 3 seasons as a full time starter where he threw less then 9 Ints.  2009 (7), 2011 (6) and 2012 (8)

 

Aaron Rodgers only season with over a 70% completion percentage came in 2007 when he was a backup and attempted 28 passes in 2 games.  (71.4)   He has never thrown that high of a completion percentage as the full time starter.

 

Aaron Rodgers has never thrown for 4777 yards or more.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/8439/aaron-rodgers

 

 

So none of the elite QB's in the NFL has ever equaled a season that you have just predicted Luck would do in his 2nd year.  The closest you can find is Drew Brees in 2011 in which he equaled or bettered the completion percentage, the yards and the TD's, but threw 14 Int's.  He accomplished this in his 11th NFL season.

Yeah i get what your saying. i also said on here in july 2012 that the Colts were going to go 11-5. That drew rave reviews. Look, do you know how many records Luck broke last year? not just rookie records but actual NFL records too. and we all have always known that Peyton Manning is the best ever, (Brady is a product of Billichek? while Manning's Offense and play changed the NFL forever) and if you want to compare luck to the other quarterbacks cited that have those stats years and years into their respective carreers then you should compare rookie year stats and nothing more. Because thats all Luck has so far to prove anything by. It should be safe to say that Luck broke all those records by his will to play. He didnt step onto a superbowl team just like the other QB's, to say that Luck cant reach 70% is the same as saying records are no longer allowed to be broken. If Luck broke NFL records last year then that means that the other QB's had all these years in the NFL and couldnt break records that Luck broke in his rookie season. Luck broke the records because no one else was able to achieve tha level for the specific record.  I hate to say it but if you compare 1 season from all QB's, then Luck is the best ever......so far. Furthermore, Now that we have CO hamilton, we have to include Stanfords offensive efficiency in 2011 and the fact that Luck will only get better just as the other QB's in history have done.

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The most INT Andrew Luck should throw is about 7. He should know by now that either you run or take the sack. Training wheels are off on him. I expect and hope for a huge jump in his game. Quite a bit of missed opportunities last season

just for some perpective here the fewest INTs Manning ever threw in a season was nine. Tom Brady has only thrown less than seven in a season once so you are asking Luck to do something that maybe the best two QBs in NFL history have done combined one time in their careers.
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Yeah i get what your saying. i also said on here in july 2012 that the Colts were going to go 11-5. That drew rave reviews. Look, do you know how many records Luck broke last year? not just rookie records but actual NFL records too. and we all have always known that Peyton Manning is the best ever, (Brady is a product of Billichek? while Manning's Offense and play changed the NFL forever) and if you want to compare luck to the other quarterbacks cited that have those stats years and years into their respective carreers then you should compare rookie year stats and nothing more. Because thats all Luck has so far to prove anything by. It should be safe to say that Luck broke all those records by his will to play. He didnt step onto a superbowl team just like the other QB's, to say that Luck cant reach 70% is the same as saying records are no longer allowed to be broken. If Luck broke NFL records last year then that means that the other QB's had all these years in the NFL and couldnt break records that Luck broke in his rookie season. Luck broke the records because no one else was able to achieve tha level for the specific record.  I hate to say it but if you compare 1 season from all QB's, then Luck is the best ever......so far. Furthermore, Now that we have CO hamilton, we have to include Stanfords offensive efficiency in 2011 and the fact that Luck will only get better just as the other QB's in history have done.

 

All of the NFL Records Luck broke last year where rookie records.  He has no general NFL records that apply to vets as well as rookies.  

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What happens in the past is irrelevant to what happens in the future. It is not legal precedence. Records get broken all the time.

 

Might as well predict 90% Comp. 20,000 yards 112 TD's and 0 INT's then.  

 

Could it happen?  Yes it could.  But the likelyhood of it happening given that Manning, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers have never equaled or surpassed that kind of season is extremely unlikely.

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Might as well predict 90% Comp. 20,000 yards 112 TD's and 0 INT's then.  

 

Could it happen?  Yes it could.  But the likelyhood of it happening given that Manning, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers have never equaled or surpassed that kind of season is extremely unlikely.

Agreed that it is unlikely to happen.

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I don't view the Colts next season as contingent on TD passes that much. I wanna see a better line & a better ground game. I also wanna see Luck throw the ball away more & know that our defense will hand the ball back to Luck in just a few minutes. 

 

Will Luck flourish? Absolutely. I just want Luck protected with 35-40 RB handoffs per game. It's not sexy, but it wins games, especially in Nov. & December. 

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All of the NFL Records Luck broke last year where rookie records.  He has no general NFL records that apply to vets as well as rookies.  

every vet has a rookie record. compare them and see where luck will be by the time he has the years as other QB's in comparison. seriously, if our beloved Peyton Manning had the rookie year Andrew Luck had, then Peytons carreer as a whole, wouldve been all that much better. Luck simply started out better than Peyton and Peyton had the better team. It would take an injury to keep Luck behind Peyton as it stands now......comparing them as two rookies.  .......man, remember the days of Jeff George? We never thought then that we'd be so blessed to have the Franchise-carrying quarterbacks that we've had. Imagine if the Colts QB was Blaine Gabbert how dismall our forums would be? lmao

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New o-line, new wide-out, full TC, new offensive coach, different schedule, new HC (almost)......I really have no idea. DHB could be worse than Avery, and the O-line might still suck. I'll abstain from the fun, as I'm not clever enough to factor all this in and make a reasoned forecast. 

 

Yep, I'm a chicken-licken yellow coward.....

 

Well, he might do a little better than last season....

No BHC my friend, you are not a coward. I actually like the candor of your post. Nobody has any idea how we will do at all. I have a lot of respect for the Texans & DC Wade Phillips making the AFC South the black & blue division IMO Ed Reed scares the bleep out of me man! He is so darn good at taking picks to the House whenever the Hades he feels like it...Wow! 

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No BHC my friend, you are not a coward. I actually like the candor of your post. Nobody has any idea how we will do at all. I have a lot of respect for the Texans & DC Wade Phillips making the AFC South the black & blue division IMO Ed Reed scares the bleep out of me man! He is so darn good at taking picks to the House whenever the Hades he feels like it...Wow! 

Thank you kindly. Sometimes my mispalced candor is boo'd off the stage! But I'm not scared of the Texans one little bit.

 

Cue Vance and Quizzer......!

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New o-line, new wide-out, full TC, new offensive coach, different schedule, new HC (almost)......I really have no idea. DHB could be worse than Avery, and the O-line might still suck. I'll abstain from the fun, as I'm not clever enough to factor all this in and make a reasoned forecast. 

 

I think Luck will see a slight improvement, considering our easier schedule, but not much. Plus, Pagano is a defensive coach, so it makes sense why Luck had success under Arian's system, especially since Arian's did not believe in a power run approach like our new OC does. By virtue of our new OC's philosophy, Luck may throw the ball less and even if he does, it will be on shorter routes.

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All of the NFL Records Luck broke last year where rookie records.  He has no general NFL records that apply to vets as well as rookies.

Actually the seven game winning drives record isnt just a rookie record.
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Similar/slightly more yards(Due to more offensive series/less ending in a turn over) 35ish TDs somewhere around 10 ints 2 sack fumbles(Early in the year getting it together before DEN game).

 

It's hard to say how the offensive growth is going to work with his stats. We will be able to run the ball better with the line vastly improved which will draw less passes. Despite that we are switching to a more QB friendly scheme which will = less picks therefore more plays as well as a defense that will be improved giving him the ball a little more as well.

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We'll be running the ball about 50-60 percent of the time. We'll be able to run the ball trust me on that. So yes I do only see Andrew throwing 7 interceptions. Our system will be mixed with about 5 variety of offenses. It won't just be all west coast. We'll see plays from last years offense as well. Once teams bit on the play action run, we'll be able to open up the offensive air attack. Ravens game from last season showed we can run the ball, however we need to work on our redzone scoring. A few teams had our number inside the 20. Which I know the coaches have addressed in the offseason.

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Also Andrew Luck needs to work on inzone corn fade route passes. Can't throw them all to well. Was about to watch all of our games on YouTube until they were taken down. If anyone can rewatch games you'll see off the teams weaknesses. Also no one the the oline including Castanzo played well period.

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We'll be running the ball about 50-60 percent of the time. We'll be able to run the ball trust me on that. So yes I do only see Andrew throwing 7 interceptions. Our system will be mixed with about 5 variety of offenses. It won't just be all west coast. We'll see plays from last years offense as well. Once teams bit on the play action run, we'll be able to open up the offensive air attack. Ravens game from last season showed we can run the ball, however we need to work on our redzone scoring. A few teams had our number inside the 20. Which I know the coaches have addressed in the offseason.

 

We will definitely be passing the ball more than running. I'm not saying it's going to be a marginal increas could easily be 51-49 pass-run, but I suspect we will never be a run first team. You simply don't draft a prospect of Lucks potential to run the ball through his growing years predominantly. We will use the run to set up the PA, and it probably won't go to terrible much farther than that.

 

Granted this is all speculation until we see the season unfold with us incorporating a lot of different things not a one of us can accurately predict it.

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64-71% Completion Rating
29-35 Passing TD's
16-19 Int's (yeah I am expecting more In'ts than many posters but I am not sure Luck will break that habit in his second year.)

Yardage depends greatly on whether or not the Colts can sustain a rushing attack this season.

Obviously not a huge change but hopefully it is all we need.

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I expect he'll probably be 20-28 TDs, cut down the INTs some to 14-15'ish and probably complete atleast 60% of his passes.

 

Buts its really hard to guess at this point.

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Luck will be fine, IMO. The true question is, how many of the other 2nd year players will ramp up their learning curve so that Luck does not have to force feed Reggie as much??? That will determine the success of our offense, IMO.

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Luck will be fine, IMO. The true question is, how many of the other 2nd year players will ramp up their learning curve so that Luck does not have to force feed Reggie as much??? That will determine the success of our offense, IMO.

 

Also if the change of scenery and consistent QB play will improve DHB.

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