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Could we be set for next decade?


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Of the 90 players that are currently on the Colts Training Camp roster, I was a bit shocked to see how few “old” veterans were on the team. I knew mentally that we were a youngish team but when you put it on paper, I was a bit shocked.

The “Ancient Ones”:

Adam Vinatieri = 18th season (8th with the Colts; has it really been that long?) Matt Hasslebeck = 15th season Reggie Wayne = 13th season Robert Mathis, Cory Redding, Aubrayo Franklin = 11th season

One backup QB, one placekicker (who can kick until their 90), three outright stud starters (Wayne, Mathis, Redding) and one NT.

But, after those six guys, we drop down three season to the next most senior Colt. Did you know who that was before looking?

2nd Contract Veterans:

Antoine Bethea = 8th season Samson Satele, LaRon Landry = 7th season Donald Thomas, Erik Walden, Gosder Cherilus, Mike McGlynn = 6th season Donald Brown, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Vonte Davis, Greg Toler, Darius Butler, Ricky Jean-Francois, Fili Moala, Lawrence Sidbury, Pat McAfee = 5th season

So, 6 “ancient” veterans and only another 16 guys who are past their rookie contract. An even 22 players that are past their rookie contract on the Colts (the same number that is our starting offense and defense squads combined).

So, that math tells me that of the 22 players past their rookie contracts, only 12 are likely starters for the team on offense or defense (Wayne, Mathis, Redding, Bethea, Landry, Thomas, Walden, Cherilus, Heyward-Bey, Davis, Toler, RJF).

Add in our rookies and our other studs luck, Ballard, fleener, Allen, Costanzo, Hilton, Brazill, Chapman, Angerer/Connor/Freeman, and half of our starters could be on their rookie contracts.

Anyway, just some interesting numbers. I was just surprised at how young the team is once you put it on paper.

We have a great mix of youth and experience that could have the colts set for the next 5-10 years. Kudos to Grigson for adding experienced youth.

Also, seeing as we aren't littered with end of career veterans and our cap is static, it gives Grigson the draft and free agency to replace players like Mathis, Wayne, Redding.

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I'm not quite sure I'd say we're "set" for a decade.  If most of these players are as good as some of us here think they are, we're going to have to make some choices.  Luck is likely to make 23+ mil a year by the time his rookie contract is up. 

 

 

We're in good shape for the future for sure, though.

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I'm not quite sure I'd say we're "set" for a decade.  If most of these players are as good as some of us here think they are, we're going to have to make some choices.  Luck is likely to make 23+ mil a year by the time his rookie contract is up. 

 

 

We're in good shape for the future for sure, though.

 

Don't think Luck will get 23+ mil a year. He wont get more than Flacco, Rogders etc unless he helps the Colts get to the Super Bowl.

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It's a pretty typical setup I would think. The difference between the average age of the oldest squad in the league and the youngest squad in the league is never all that dramatic because nobody can afford to avoid churning their roster. Even during the Manning era the Colts were turning over the entire roster every four years or so - aside from the few "key" players that form the foundation. The problem with the Colts at the end of that period wasn't excessive age, it was that the key older players were injured or declining, and the players drafted to replace them were either injury prone or not good enough.

 

The point is that the only context under which you can consider the Colts to be "set for ten years" is because of Luck (assuming that he continues to improve - a lot) and we were thinking the same thing from the moment the Colts earned the #1 pick in late 2011. Nothing has changed - despite the predicable churning of the roster. The vast majority of the players on the roster now won't be here in four years, and the long-term success of the team - any team actually - will continue to be predicated upon consistent drafting. Considering that Reggie and Robert are getting old and their replacements don't appear to be on the roster (in fact no-one is really jumping out as an all-pro quality skill player aside from perhaps Allen) , and that we have no idea how good the oline (nor much of the defense) is yet, it would be hard to accept the argument that the team is set for even the short term much less the long. We need to see how everyone develops and whether new "key players" jump forward.

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The fact that we have a franchise QB in Luck.. I believe we are at least going to have a chance for the next decade with him at the helm.

 

But I do like the way our roster looks as far as veterans and all of our young guys. Only thing that will stink is the fact that we are liable to lose some guys once their rookie contracrs are up

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All right I'm gonna make this clear for my loving :colts: family here on this forum

DO NOT, & I repeat...... DO NOT ever get the word "set" in your vocabulary when referring to the Colts. Grigson has shown that he is CONSTANTLY finding and thinking of ways to improve this team. We could all wake up tomorrow with a new player on the roster you just never know with Mr. Grigson

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Of the 90 players that are currently on the Colts Training Camp roster, I was a bit shocked to see how few “old” veterans were on the team. I knew mentally that we were a youngish team but when you put it on paper, I was a bit shocked.

The “Ancient Ones”:

Adam Vinatieri = 18th season (8th with the Colts; has it really been that long?) Matt Hasslebeck = 15th season Reggie Wayne = 13th season Robert Mathis, Cory Redding, Aubrayo Franklin = 11th season

One backup QB, one placekicker (who can kick until their 90), three outright stud starters (Wayne, Mathis, Redding) and one NT.

But, after those six guys, we drop down three season to the next most senior Colt. Did you know who that was before looking?

2nd Contract Veterans:

Antoine Bethea = 8th season Samson Satele, LaRon Landry = 7th season Donald Thomas, Erik Walden, Gosder Cherilus, Mike McGlynn = 6th season Donald Brown, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Vonte Davis, Greg Toler, Darius Butler, Ricky Jean-Francois, Fili Moala, Lawrence Sidbury, Pat McAfee = 5th season

So, 6 “ancient” veterans and only another 16 guys who are past their rookie contract. An even 22 players that are past their rookie contract on the Colts (the same number that is our starting offense and defense squads combined).

So, that math tells me that of the 22 players past their rookie contracts, only 12 are likely starters for the team on offense or defense (Wayne, Mathis, Redding, Bethea, Landry, Thomas, Walden, Cherilus, Heyward-Bey, Davis, Toler, RJF).

Add in our rookies and our other studs luck, Ballard, fleener, Allen, Costanzo, Hilton, Brazill, Chapman, Angerer/Connor/Freeman, and half of our starters could be on their rookie contracts.

Anyway, just some interesting numbers. I was just surprised at how young the team is once you put it on paper.

We have a great mix of youth and experience that could have the colts set for the next 5-10 years. Kudos to Grigson for adding experienced youth.

Also, seeing as we aren't littered with end of career veterans and our cap is static, it gives Grigson the draft and free agency to replace players like Mathis, Wayne, Redding.

 

As always; clear eyed, insightful OP. Thanks Bronx.

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It's a pretty typical setup I would think. The difference between the average age of the oldest squad in the league and the youngest squad in the league is never all that dramatic because nobody can afford to avoid churning their roster. Even during the Manning era the Colts were turning over the entire roster every four years or so - aside from the few "key" players that form the foundation. The problem with the Colts at the end of that period wasn't excessive age, it was that the key older players were injured or declining, and the players drafted to replace them were either injury prone or not good enough.

 

The point is that the only context under which you can consider the Colts to be "set for ten years" is because of Luck (assuming that he continues to improve - a lot) and we were thinking the same thing from the moment the Colts earned the #1 pick in late 2011. Nothing has changed - despite the predicable churning of the roster. The vast majority of the players on the roster now won't be here in four years, and the long-term success of the team - any team actually - will continue to be predicated upon consistent drafting. Considering that Reggie and Robert are getting old and their replacements don't appear to be on the roster (in fact no-one is really jumping out as an all-pro quality skill player aside from perhaps Allen) , and that we have no idea how good the oline (nor much of the defense) is yet, it would be hard to accept the argument that the team is set for even the short term much less the long. We need to see how everyone develops and whether new "key players" jump forward.

Good point. Much like manning, luck will be able to hide weak points on our roster. Hopefully Grigson learns from polian mistake and doesn't let it get out of hand. The true test will be if Grigson overpays players on loyalty alone.

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I don't think any team is set for a decade.

 

But it looks like we have a QB who will make us relevant for a while....but...

 

Any team with a star QB is one serious injury away from being top 5 in the draft.

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things change really fast in the nfl.. think about the nfc west two years ago ... by far the worst division in football and now one of the best if not the best..! we have a great young quarterback and it seems that grigs is a very fine gm.. but u just never know..

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We're two years into a re-building project that frankly will ***NEVER*** be complete.    That's the nature of the NFL these days.

 

As has been noted in this thread,  you have to constantly keep churning the roster.   The salary camp demands that you do so.   You don't have a choice.

 

There will always be more turnover, perhaps even more than we want.    We will lose some players that we'd like to keep...  nature of the beast....   it happens to every team.   Look what just happened to NE and Wes Welker....    That's the NFL.

 

So....  set for a decade?    No.    In fact,  it's best that everyone get that idea out of their head. 

 

The single hardest thing to do in Pro Sports is sustain excellence.    It's one thing to get good for a year or two.   It's another thing to stay good year after year after year.     Without a doubt,  it's the hardest thing to do....

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Don't think Luck will get 23+ mil a year. He wont get more than Flacco, Rogders etc unless he helps the Colts get to the Super Bowl.

 

Agreed. . . I would say Luck is going to be more in the 12 to 18 million dollar per year range when his rookie contract runs out.

 

It depends quite a bit on what he does since he has 2 more years on his contract at a relatively low wage.  

 

I suppose if he really takes off and gets us to the SB he could be looking at more like a 20 million a year contract.  

 

The big thing in the contract negotiations is likely going to be the length of the contract.  Luck and his uncle (who is his agent) are probably going to want a 3 or 4 year deal while the Colt's are going to want to get more like a 6 year deal.  The idea is that in 3 or 4 years from now, Luck's play could push him into the 20+ million a year club, and they will want to re-negotiate when he's able to land himself that kind of contract.

 

I'm thinking it will probably be somewhere around 80 million over 5 years with probably at least 30 mil guaranteed.  

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Yes, we are set....providing health. I dont know which aspect of the game to be more excited about, offense or defense. and i dont know which group im more anxious to watch, the O-line or the Secondary. I was watching NFL AM thismorning  and they were talking about how Charles Woodson is still homeless, NFL wise, i mean, and i was thinking what if the Colts picked him up, he's not a need at all but it would definantly make our secondary one of the brightest and most promising features of the 2013 Colts, i mean we already have Vontae Davis, Landry, Bethea,Toler and Butler and That makes for an Elite secondary, doesnt it? And Pagano is a Secondary guru who has made quite a name for himself as a secondary coach and it looks like he fell into a position where he had the money and space to build another project and wow, i'm impressed! Pagano is back at it with another new, mean Secondary sure to be a highlight of the 2013 Colts.  And the O-line....we got new bookends and guards and Thomas and Thornton are Huge, man. With Cherilus it looks like the makings of a real solid line. I'm real excited about Ballard, too. Cant wait to watch his career unfold. He's so much like Edgerin James i love it. we really miss James' consistency after  five years of Addai and Brown and all their unfortunate injuries.  ...and our Pass-Rush......and our WR corps.....cant wait for next year:)

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We're two years into a re-building project that frankly will ***NEVER*** be complete.    That's the nature of the NFL these days.

 

As has been noted in this thread,  you have to constantly keep churning the roster.   The salary camp demands that you do so.   You don't have a choice.

 

There will always be more turnover, perhaps even more than we want.    We will lose some players that we'd like to keep...  nature of the beast....   it happens to every team.   Look what just happened to NE and Wes Welker....    That's the NFL.

 

So....  set for a decade?    No.    In fact,  it's best that everyone get that idea out of their head. 

 

The single hardest thing to do in Pro Sports is sustain excellence.    It's one thing to get good for a year or two.   It's another thing to stay good year after year after year.     Without a doubt,  it's the hardest thing to do....

well said :thmup:

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I think so barring major and unfortunate injuries.

 

Why? Because barring a disaster we have "the QB."  The face of the franchise is here. We can keep adding pieces around him/rebuilding-building and tweaking things as needed. Not that we want to rely only on him but you know what I mean. And yes I know Luck has to keep getting better too.

 

That does not mean we are a super power or something right now or will be over night but we do have "the QB."

Granted he has just played one season but he has shown me enough, he has shown me "magic" to go along with his skills/brains. This magic/intangibles to me is sometimes the difference between the "just good enough" and the greats.....

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I dont think we are anywhere near set for the next decade, to many older veterans that are closer to retirement then they aren't, we still have holes in some areas, we dont need to be taking the approach that we are set for the next decade, Complacency is the enemy, The Pats are not complacent 5 SB appearances later and 3 wins, That was one our previous regimes biggest problems....Being complacent

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I'm not quite sure I'd say we're "set" for a decade.  If most of these players are as good as some of us here think they are, we're going to have to make some choices.  Luck is likely to make 23+ mil a year by the time his rookie contract is up. 

 

 

We're in good shape for the future for sure, though.

Pretty sure Luckk won't make that much unless he get a ring between now and then, which isn't outside the realm of possibility. I'd expect 18-20 mil.

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