The Best Division in Football for the First Decade Since Realignment.

[Fx Stryker]

Does the division a team plays in play a role in the success of franchises? Who was the best division from 2002-2010? It may be impossible to answer. However, this thread's goal is simply to try, and add a face to a question. 

 

Before we start I want you to ask yourself who you believe was the toughest division in the NFL. Now that we have our guess let's continue, and see if general perception was right.

 

For a quick overview. The NFL expanded into a 32 team league causing teams to switch conferences, and division to be realigned. Here is what the new NFL looked like:

 

 

A quick little fact based on the teams total years in the NFL the Divisions rank as such:

 

1. NFC North - 312 years combined             5.  AFC North - 200 years combined
2. NFC East - 293 years combined              6.  AFC East - 198 years combined
3. NFC West - 264 years combined             7.  NFC South - 140 years combined
4. AFC West - 204 years combined             8.  AFC South - 134 years combined

 

Okay enough little details let's start what this thread was really about.

 

How have the divisions fared record wise over the past decade?

 

*from 2002-2010

 

As we can see the AFC South has posted the most wins from 2002-2010.

 

Rankings fall as:

 

1. AFC South       5.AFC North
2. NFC East         6.AFC West
3. AFC East         7.NFC North
4. NFC South       8.NFC West

But can you simply just say the AFCS is the best based on record? Teams like the Colts, Pats, and Eagles post triple digit or close to triple digit wins. It can severely skew the data. While divisions like the NFC South and North seem to be close-nit competition. So what can we do? Lets see how the divisions stack up without the record of the division winners from 2002-2010.

 

We first need the record of the division winners.

1. AFC South: 111-33                Re-ranked: 1. AFC South: 111-33
2. NFC East: 104-40                                     2. AFC East: 110-34
3. AFC East: 110-34                                     3. AFC West: 105-39
4. NFC South: 102-42                                   4. NFC East: 104-40
5. AFC North: 103-40-1                                 5. AFC North: 103-41
6. AFC West: 105-39                                     6. NFC South: 102-42
7. NFC North: 102-42                                    7. NFC North: 102-42
8. NFC West: 89-55                                       8. NFC West: 89-55

As suspected the AFC South and East winners seem to stand out completely from the competition. This surely has to bump them down the power ladder.

 

 

 

 

The new rankings of division records without division winners almost remains unchanged. The exception is the AFCS and AFCE. They are the only two divisions to fall. Also no division posts a winning record without their winner. The data here is represent by only 24 teams, and 20 of them fail to miss the playoffs. So it seems plausible for all to have a losing record.

 

Also in this data we removed the wins and losses of the division winners, but the three other teams have their loses and wins against those teams. To further balance the data you need to take out the division games the division winner has played against the three other teams inside that division. Thus the need to collect the division record of the winning teams.

 

From 2002-2010 each team has played in 54 division games. Let's see how they did.

 

1. AFC North: 47-7
2. AFC South: 44-10
3. NFC North: 42-12
4. AFC East: 42-12
5. AFC West: 41-13
6. NFC East: 41-13
7. NFC West: 40-14
8. NFC South: 40-14

*As a side note out of the division winners from 2002-2010, 71 out of 72 have posted at least .500 or better. Only the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs posted a losing division record of 2-4. Also only 8 out out of 72 have posted a 6-0 division record. Only two teams did it multiple times. The Indianapolis Colts (2005 and 2009) and Pittsburgh Steelers (2002 and 2008). The other six teams are the '02 Titans, '04 Eagles, '05 Seahawks, '07 Patriots, '08 Cardinals, and '09 Bengals.

 

Now we can subtract the division winners total games won from the three other teams loss column, and subtract the losses from their win column. This weights the divisions power much better.

 

 

Surprisingly only two division posted a winning record without their leaders. The AFC South reclaims the best record only this time sharing it with the NFC East.

 

One last final analysis, how do the divisions look without any division games? From 2002-2010 each division has played 256 division games. All posting a 108-108 record.

 

Subtract the division games from the total record and their isn't much variance.

1. AFC South
2. NFC East
3. AFC East
4. NFC South
5. AFC North
6. AFC West
7. NFC North
8. NFC West

So did you think the youngest division in football would turn out to have thes best record, and provided the toughest competition? Who did you think was the toughest?

[CR91]

well how about this little tidbit of information. the only division to have all their teams go to the superbowl in the last 12 years is the NFC west. course they all lost

[Dustin]

Great work FX. I love stuff like this.

[The Old Crow]

Since 2000, the AFC North has four Super Bowls. FX, that is some good stat work !

[Fx Stryker]

Since 2000, the AFC North has four Super Bowls. FX, that is some good stat work !

 

Championships can definitely add to the argument. As you said the AFC North/Central has four Championships since 2000. Which off of the top of my head I believe that is the most. It is very hard to answer "the best" type of questions because so much comes into play.

 

I can take this even deeper, and give the dimensions of offense, defense, penalties, ect....

 

These type of things really intrigue me. Especially when the perception is opposite of the facts. Like the Colts only did what they did because they beat up on the young, weak AFC South. Which was one of the reasons I started the thread.

[Nobody]

Great read, FX!

[MAC]

 

 So did you think the youngest division in football would turn out to have thes best record, and provided the toughest competition?

 

Yes, actually - as posted in your status update.

[amfootball]

This is great. I have to print off and read to digest better. Thanks man for putting this type of time and effort in. We are always talking about divisions up here so it is good to have this info.

 

When people ask me why I am here as a non-Colts fan, this is why. Other forums just don't have this. I may not like the Colts but I like their fans even though I disagree with them on a lot.

[Fx Stryker]

Yes, actually - as posted in your status update.

 

Yea, like you said the Titans and Jags were pretty good teams. I think they really suffered from playing against Peyton. Put them in the West, and they are perennial playoff teams.

[chad72]

Great work, Fx!!! You rock!!!

[chad72]

Yea, like you said the Titans and Jags were pretty good teams. I think they really suffered from playing against Peyton. Put them in the West, and they are perennial playoff teams.

 

Yep, the Titans under Jeff Fisher suffered from having to go against Peyton. Look what they did to the mighty San Fran in their first year since Fisher took over. But now, Jeff Fisher might have to settle for second best again in the NFC West given how he has to deal with Seahawks and 49ers!!!

[chad72]

Since 2000, the AFC North has four Super Bowls. FX, that is some good stat work !

 

Well, Old Crow, the division re-alignment did not technically happen till 2002.

 

So, since 2002 culminating in 2012 over a period of 11 years:

 

AFC side: AFC East is 2-2, AFC North is 3-1, AFC South is 1-1, AFC West is 0-1

 

NFC side: NFC East is 2-1, NFC South is 2-1 in SBs, NFC West is 0-3 in SBs, NFC North is 1-1 in SBs

[supremecoltsfan300]

Great post and analysis FX!

[Narcosys]

Freakin kudos man!

[The Old Crow]

Well, Old Crow, the division re-alignment did not technically happen till 2002.

 

So, since 2002 culminating in 2012 over a period of 11 years:

 

AFC side: AFC East is 2-2, AFC North is 3-1, AFC South is 1-1, AFC West is 0-1

 

NFC side: NFC East is 2-1, NFC South is 2-1 in SBs, NFC West is 0-3 in SBs, NFC North is 1-1 in SBs

 

 

Yeah, I guess we won that 2000 Super Bowl for the good ol' AFC Central Division ! It was sure fun beating Jeff Fisher back in the day.