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Archer's Soon-to-be-Derided Final Colt Mock


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Here’s mine: 

 

1) Larry Warford, OG, Kentucky.  6’3, 343.  Draftniks can yell all they want about “value”, the bottom line is that this is the guy that improves the team the most.  Besides, you won’t find many experts who don’t agree that Warford will be a solid starting guard for the next 8 to 10 years.  In this draft – I’ll take it!

 

3) B.W. Webb, CB, William & Mary.  5’10, 184.  As GM, this draft would be all about filling in the depth chart in areas that were not sufficiently addressed in FA.  To that end, I’d like my first 4 picks (in no particular order) to be OG, OT, CB, and S.  CB is probably the least of these needs, but Webb is the best player available at one of these positions.  He’s not the biggest or fastest, but he is fantastic in coverage and he’s lightning quick.  He’s got one of the best short shuttles I’ve ever seen, which is a more important measurement than forty time for most positions IMHO.  He’ll thrive as a nickel/dime guy off the bat, but I see him as an eventual starter (even with his diminutive stature). 

 

4) Earl Wolff, S, NC State.  5’11, 209.  If I didn’t lose you with Warford, I’m sure to get a wth with this one!  However, I consider Wolff to be the most under-rated player in this draft (by draftniks, anyways).  He ran a 4.44.  39” vertical.  Excellent short shuttle.  Great college production.  Really impressed at the East-West Shrine.  He’s good against the run and in coverage.  He’ll be one of those swing guys who can play either S position,  I don’t think he would last to us if we had a 5th rounder, and he’s the last safety I really like in this draft.  He’ll be good ST player for now, too.

 

6) Emmett Cleary, OT, Boston College.  6’7, 317.  Another candidate for most under-rated player in this draft.  Boston College always puts out pretty technically proficient OLs (including both of our starting OTs).  The book on Cleary is that he lacks the top-tier athleticism to be drafted in the early or mid rounds.  However, I don’t think his numbers are bad for a mid- or late-rounder.  24 reps, 28.5” vertical, 4.70 short shuttle.  His scouting report generally says he’s very good in pass-protection and he can get a little nasty in the run game too.  If he’s gone in round 6, Tanner Hawkinson of Kansas might be my choice, though he’s more of an extremely quick, pass-protector type.

 

7) Nick Moody, LB, Florida State.  6’1, 236.  He’d probably be an ILB for the Colts.  A DB until halfway through his college career, he should be good in coverage, but he’s not a pass-rusher.  I’m drafting him to start…on special teams!  Great ST player, who could have some positional value.

 

7) Brett Maher, K, Nebraska.  6’, 186.  I haven’t been too impressed with the 40-year old Vinny in recent years.  It wouldn’t save too much money to replace him, but we might be able to find an able successor with the Mr. Irrelevant pick.  We’d probably have to draft Maher, as no sane priority FA would want to come to the Colts to compete with Vinatieri.  But, I'd have an open TC battle.

 

So there it is.  Draftniks will hate my picks because they don’t represent “value”.   However, in a relatively talent-deficient draft, this mock gets the last player that can come in and start at RG (and add some of the power-blocking element that Pep Hamilton seems to want), followed by three players I’d love to have on the team at need positions.  Value be darned!  Something tells me that Grigson may be out after the draft or at final cuts trying to bring in OTs for depth (like he did with CBs last year).  Between Linkenbach and a late-round rookie, I wouldn’t be too comfy with the OT depth.

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As I always say...a mock is a mock...and I enjoy reading them.  

 

As a lot of guys know here, I am an advocate of my offensive lineman being big and a little on the mean side....OK...a lot of mean.  Warford has some meanness.

 

Warford's weight has fluctuated between 332 and 343.  With his athleticism, he can zone block, and he is known for his power off of the ball.  I feel that he can block in both schemes, zone and man..... therefore is my kind of OL prospect.  Coaches change in the Not For Long...therefore so do blocking schemes. Jake Long found that out in Miami.

 

Do we pick Warford if a Cooper falls?....No by BPA and grades.  I am not so sure, however from what I have seen that Warford may end up being the 1st or second best in this class when it is all said and done....:)

 

I like your analysis Archer.  Nice job.:)

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I can't see three guards going in the same round

I guess it depends if ya have a guard by the name of McGllllll.....ICK...Sorry...could not say his name...reminded me of the time...grandma got run over by a reindeer...but it was McGllllllly...ICK by the bull rush  :headspin:

 

draft_lens2093663module10666663photo_121

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Whether or not Warford is a reach as BPA at 24 I'll leave others to debate.  However, we are the only team between 24 and 38 likely to draft him, and probably 42 where the Dolphins pick.  It is so remote that if he is "our guy" we would probably find enough value in trade offers to trade back even if we could not get full value.  It would be identical to what Denver did last year in selecting Wolfe.  They only wanted one guy, and their first round pick was just too early.  They traded back twice from 25 down to 36 and netted an early 4th (101).  Far from full value, but that was how much they were locked into Wolfe.

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Whether or not Warford is a reach as BPA at 24 I'll leave others to debate.  However, we are the only team between 24 and 38 likely to draft him, and probably 42 where the Dolphins pick.  It is so remote that if he is "our guy" we would probably find enough value in trade offers to trade back even if we could not get full value.  It would be identical to what Denver did last year in selecting Wolfe.  They only wanted one guy, and their first round pick was just too early.

I love how you say "I'll leave others to debate."  I totally agree.  What I see in my OG...someone else see something else.  

 

Warford has 'scary' athleticism for that size and likes to block downfield.  

 

I love my ex-basketball players.....that is why I have not given up on Reitz as yet.  His health has been his downfall....no chance to show much improvement at all.

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I was expecting to be laughed at more than this... ;)

I took the analysis road...:)  

 

Nick Moody......how about dropping about 10 and hitting some TEs at SS :)

 

The time has come in the NFL for LB sized safeties.......coming to a stadioum near YOU!!  :)

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Warford is a solid guard but it's a reach should be better players on the board. Datone Jones,Carradine,Sylvester Williams,Werner one of those gus will fall to us. I know we need a RG but we can get a good one like Winters or Bailey in the 4th round. You just cant pass up a 1st round defensive pass rusher for a guard.

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I took the analysis road... :)

 

Nick Moody......how about dropping about 10 and hitting some TEs at SS :)

 

The time has come in the NFL for LB sized safeties.......coming to a stadioum near YOU!!   :)

Ray Ray Armstrong is just the hybrid your talking about and he will be a COLT next season..

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Ray Ray Armstrong is just the hybrid your talking about and he will be a COLT next season..

I know he is your fave.....love the size....he is not rated in the top 100.....

 

Everything you read says the sky is the limit.  I do believe that we have Ray Anderson as one of the best teachers in the game.  The time HAS come for bigger safeties in the league...

 

Just looking at Cooper Taylor of Richmond at 6' 5" 235.....and Devonte Holloman at 6'2 241.....played OLB and safety at South Carolina. (Too slow for NFL SS according to reports.)

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Warford is a solid guard but it's a reach should be better players on the board. Datone Jones,Carradine,Sylvester Williams,Werner one of those gus will fall to us. I know we need a RG but we can get a good one like Winters or Bailey in the 4th round. You just cant pass up a 1st round defensive pass rusher for a guard.

 

Warford is a solid guard but it's a reach should be better players on the board. Datone Jones,Carradine,Sylvester Williams,Werner one of those gus will fall to us. I know we need a RG but we can get a good one like Winters or Bailey in the 4th round. You just cant pass up a 1st round defensive pass rusher for a guard.

 

This is the kind of thinking I don't get.  Why are these players better?  Datone Jones?  He was barely draftable entering this past season due to a lack of production.  He's at least 11 pounds lighter than our lightest DL, which makes me think he doesn't fit the system too well.  He's basically a great athlete/mediocre football player.  Carradine, Warner...they'll be drafted in the 1st round because of their "upside", but these aren't great football players.  I'll take a "sure thing" like Warford, even it he doesn't have that theoretical upside potential.

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This is the kind of thinking I don't get.  Why are these players better?  Datone Jones?  He was barely draftable entering this past season due to a lack of production.  He's at least 11 pounds lighter than our lightest DL, which makes me think he doesn't fit the system too well.  He's basically a great athlete/mediocre football player.  Carradine, Warner...they'll be drafted in the 1st round because of their "upside", but these aren't great football players.  I'll take a "sure thing" like Warford, even it he doesn't have that theoretical upside potential.

I totally agree......and my argument has been size dose matter and fit in the 3-4.....but I have made that point...and I am sticking to it.  :)

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I know he is your fave.....love the size....he is not rated in the top 100.....

 

Everything you read says the sky is the limit.  I do believe that we have Ray Anderson as one of the best teachers in the game.  The time HAS come for bigger safeties in the league...

 

Just looking at Cooper Taylor of Richmond at 6' 5" 235.....and Devonte Holloman at 6'2 241.....played OLB and safety at South Carolina. (Too slow for NFL SS according to reports.)

I'll have to look into Cooper Taylor, I like the sound of that. I like the height more than the weight I see it as a way to combat the Calvin Johnson and Gronk type players that are becoming more and more prevalent...

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I'll have to look into Cooper Taylor, I like the sound of that. I like the height more than the weight I see it as a way to combat the Calvin Johnson and Gronk type players that are becoming more and more prevalent...

shows 5-7 round ranking....nothing special....but we are thinking big safeties of the future....there he is ...

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This is the kind of thinking I don't get.  Why are these players better?  Datone Jones?  He was barely draftable entering this past season due to a lack of production.  He's at least 11 pounds lighter than our lightest DL, which makes me think he doesn't fit the system too well.  He's basically a great athlete/mediocre football player.  Carradine, Warner...they'll be drafted in the 1st round because of their "upside", but these aren't great football players.  I'll take a "sure thing" like Warford, even it he doesn't have that theoretical upside potential.

 

 

 

I also agree completely. People are too hung up on what they have read on draft sites. Werner has been mocked from #2 to the early 2nd rd.. That tells me that teams do not believe in him and IMO he does not fit our system at all. It would be a bad pick. D. Jones isn't a good fit either. He's a 4-3 end or a 1 gap 3-4 DE like what the Texans play. Carridine probably won't be fully recovered from surgery at the beginning of the season and will probably drop to the 2nd rd..

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This is the kind of thinking I don't get.  Why are these players better?  Datone Jones?  He was barely draftable entering this past season due to a lack of production.  He's at least 11 pounds lighter than our lightest DL, which makes me think he doesn't fit the system too well.  He's basically a great athlete/mediocre football player.  Carradine, Warner...they'll be drafted in the 1st round because of their "upside", but these aren't great football players.  I'll take a "sure thing" like Warford, even it he doesn't have that theoretical upside potential.

Those players are better because thier ranked higher then Warford by every scout out there. I haven't seen Warford in the 1st round of any mock draft, more of a mid to late 2nd round player. You don't draft on need you draft on value and drafting Warford in the 1st round is a huge reach. Now if you were talking about Warmack the best guard in the draft then that would be great value at 24 but i could still make a case of drafting Werner or Jarvis Jones over him because pass rushers  are a greater value of position then guards. Warford is the 3rd best guard and isn't near the talent level of Warmack or Cooper.

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Those players are better because thier ranked higher then Warford by every scout out there. I haven't seen Warford in the 1st round of any mock draft, more of a mid to late 2nd round player. You don't draft on need you draft on value and drafting Warford in the 1st round is a huge reach. Now if you were talking about Warmack the best guard in the draft then that would be great value at 24 but i could still make a case of drafting Werner or Jarvis Jones over him because pass rushers  are a greater value of position then guards. Warford is the 3rd best guard and isn't near the talent level of Warmack or Cooper.

 

This is the draftnik mentality.  It becomes about "winning the draft", and getting the guy with the best value at each pick.  However, this is a case in which the best value isn't the player that improves the team the most.  That's what it should be about: which player most improves the team the most.  I just don't see how any of those players listed make the team much better.  They come as basically developmental players (albeit developmental players with impressive athleticism and physical abilities) in areas that are already pretty deep.  There's no way they improve the team as much as Warford would...

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Those players are better because thier ranked higher then Warford by every scout out there. I haven't seen Warford in the 1st round of any mock draft, more of a mid to late 2nd round player. You don't draft on need you draft on value and drafting Warford in the 1st round is a huge reach. Now if you were talking about Warmack the best guard in the draft then that would be great value at 24 but i could still make a case of drafting Werner or Jarvis Jones over him because pass rushers  are a greater value of position then guards. Warford is the 3rd best guard and isn't near the talent level of Warmack or Cooper.

The OL can be over-analyzed as all positions.  As I stated earlier, I think Cooper is amazing I really do.  I love Warmack!  I really like Warford.  Honestly, if you look at the overall heart, desire and willingness to get his butt down field and block.....Warford does it week in and week out....this is his best attribute IMO..

 

Once again, not saying he is a 24...saying draft grades suck sometimes when looking at heart and desire.  My guess is on offensive linesman like Grigson.....likes Warford!  I do.  i liked another kid from Kentucky too.....Jacob Tamme.  :)  Nobody heard of him until Dallas went down and 18 targeted him.....:)

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Scenario 1:

 

1.Cooper-G

3.Corey Lemonier-OLB/DE

4.Aaron Mellete-WR

6.Chris Thompson-RB

7.Brandan Bishop

7.Joe Vellano

 

Scenario 2

 

1.Damontre Moore-OLB/DE

3.Brian Winters-G

4.Baccari Rambo-S

6.Conner Vernon-WR

7.Chris Thompson-RB

7.Joe Vellano-DT/NT

 

Scenario 3

 

1.Trade down to 34 (49ers) pick up there 3rd (74)

2.Cornellius Carradine-DE/OLB

3.Brian Winters-G

3.Brandon Williams-DE/NT

4.Aaron Mellete-WR

6.Demetrius Mccrary-CB

7.Chris Thompson-RB

7.Brandan Bishop-FS

 

 

Thoughts?

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I dont mind the mock and like where you are going with it. But...

 

Warford is reach at #24. We could probably still snag him in a trade back at the top of the 2nd.

 

BW Wilson i dont mind, but i would prefer Trevardo Williams here.

 

Earl Wolff i believe is a bit of a reach as well. Not a big fan of going safety this early.

 

My adaption of yours would be this:

 

Trade back to early second picking up an extra 3rd.

 

2. Larry Warford G

3. Trevardo Williams OLB

3. Kiko Alonso ILB

4. Marquise Goodwin WR

6. Knile Davis RB

7. Jordan Kovacs S

7. Dustin Hopkins K

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The OL can be over-analyzed as all positions.  As I stated earlier, I think Cooper is amazing I really do.  I love Warmack!  I really like Warford.  Honestly, if you look at the overall heart, desire and willingness to get his butt down field and block.....Warford does it week in and week out....this is his best attribute IMO..

 

Once again, not saying he is a 24...saying draft grades suck sometimes when looking at heart and desire.  My guess is on offensive linesman like Grigson.....likes Warford!  I do.  i liked another kid from Kentucky too.....Jacob Tamme.   :)  Nobody heard of him until Dallas went down and 18 targeted him..... :)

I like Warford as well but i just don't like him in the 1st when there will be higher rated defensive players on the board. This is a very deep guard draft we can get guys like Alvin Bailey or Barret Jones in the 3rd and both would be great value picks.

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I like Warford as well but i just don't like him in the 1st when there will be higher rated defensive players on the board. This is a very deep guard draft we can get guys like Alvin Bailey or Barret Jones in the 3rd and both would be great value picks.

 

I don't know, man.  I consider it to be a pretty top-heavy OL class.  Sounds like many think that Winters has propelled himself into the first half of the 2nd round, and there's no way Barrett Jones makes it to our 3rd round pick.  Bailey: I don't think too highly of him.   Not much lateral agility...  My point is that if we miss out on a 1st round OG, I don't think we'll get any prize pigs in the 3rd or 4th round.

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I like Warford as well but i just don't like him in the 1st when there will be higher rated defensive players on the board. This is a very deep guard draft we can get guys like Alvin Bailey or Barret Jones in the 3rd and both would be great value picks.

I would not take him at 24 either as stated (unless BPA which is doubtful), but I bet in a couple of years.....we will hear his name as much/more than some of the others....just the way he plays...I like it.

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I don't know, man.  I consider it to be a pretty top-heavy OL class.  Sounds like many think that Winters has propelled himself into the first half of the 2nd round, and there's no way Barrett Jones makes it to our 3rd round pick.  Bailey: I don't think too highly of him.   Not much lateral agility...  My point is that if we miss out on a 1st round OG, I don't think we'll get any prize pigs in the 3rd or 4th round.

Bailey ran a 4.9 40 and had 27 reps while Warford ran a 5.56 with 28 reps. He has much better lateral agility then Warford and is the 5th rated guard in  the draft. He doesn't have the size Warford has but 6'5 315lbs is good size for a RG. Would rather get Bailey in the 3rd then to pass up one of the good pass rushers in the 1st for Warford.

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Bailey ran a 4.9 40 and had 27 reps while Warford ran a 5.56 with 28 reps. He has much better lateral agility then Warford and is the 5th rated guard in  the draft. He doesn't have the size Warford has but 6'5 315lbs is good size for a RG. Would rather get Bailey in the 3rd then to pass up one of the good pass rushers in the 1st for Warford.

 

Wrong.  40 time does not equal lateral agility.  Go to the Bleacher Report's analysis of both players.  They do an analysis of all areas of the prospects' talents, and they just blast Bailey for his lack of lateral agility.  They call him basically a phone booth guy.  They like Warford's feet.  Granted, I just read scouting reports and I don't watch and assess tape myself, but I really don't like what I read about Bailey...

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The Bleacher report  of Bailey about his limited athleticism and lack of quickness is not  accurate. CBS analysis says he has impressive quickness and is athletic for a guy his size. Bleacher report also says Warford lacks quickness and has short arms isn't the run blocker Bailey is. Bailey fits our man blocking scheme.

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I also agree completely. People are too hung up on what they have read on draft sites. Werner has been mocked from #2 to the early 2nd rd.. That tells me that teams do not believe in him and IMO he does not fit our system at all. It would be a bad pick. D. Jones isn't a good fit either. He's a 4-3 end or a 1 gap 3-4 DE like what the Texans play. Carridine probably won't be fully recovered from surgery at the beginning of the season and will probably drop to the 2nd rd..

 

IDK, I think that says that some teams value him more than others do, which is something you can say for all but about 3 or 4 players in this draft.  There is no consensus on the players after the top 3 or 4 so some teams will have guys like Werner ranked as a high first round pick while others may not consider him anything more than a high 2nd round for their team/system.  I also don't think he's as bad a fit for our system as some people say.  He reminds me a lot of Paul Kruger, which incidentally was a similar comparison made recently by Mayock.  If he's there at 24 I would be ecstatic if we took him.

 

As for Datone Jones, I don't know much about him but based on what I've read and his size...I kind of agree with you but not completely.  He is not big enough, imo, to play 3-4 DE consistently in our defense but I don't think he would be asked to.  In a 3-4 front he could be in rotation at SLB but his true value would be at DT when we go to a 4 man front, which is quite a bit against passing teams and in passing situations.  If we have to go with a 3-4 front in known passing situations then imo that means the team feels they can't get consistent pressure with a 4 man front.  If we can get that consistent pressure in a 4 man front then we can keep more guys back in coverage, though I know they'll throw in the occasional blitz too of course.  There's also no reason to think he couldn't put on another 10-15 lbs to improve his strength, or possibly lose 10-15 lbs to improve his speed and agility.  So basically, if he has a good skill set, a good attitude and a non-stop motor then his body can be shaped to some degree to fit into the position that the staff wants to put him in.

 

I can't really speak about Carradine because I don't really know anything about him nor do I remember watching him play.  The 3 guys from FSU that I've watched quite a bit and would love to have are Werner, Rhodes and Brandon Jenkins.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Yep!  The fact that Warford slid to the 3rd round indicates I really screwed the pooch on that one!  Interestingly, I read the other day that the Rams had Warford as their Plan C (player they want not there and unable to trade down) for the #22 pick in the 1st round.  The statement I read, though, said that it would have been considered a major fail if they had to do that.  Instead, they traded down and got Alec Ogletree.  Obviously, teams don't disclose what they almost did, so we don't know if that's true.  Also, if this is true it means that Ogletree is a player the team DID want, but they traded down anyway...

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