Colts Draft Needs & Trading Down....

[NewColtsFan]

There have been enough Colts Mock drafts posted that I thought it would be a good idea to sharpen the focus here....

 

People do Mocks with and without trading down.

 

Without,  we've got picks 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 7.    Missing are picks 2 and 5.

 

With trading down we'd likely have  2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 7.      We gain 3 picks for our 1.   It's even possible we could trade down twice and collect even more picks.

 

Also....    there have been no shortage of threads discussing various team needs and whenever that happens,  someone throws out a name in the first round (as if other rounds don't exist) and those names get debates...

 

So we've had threads for the first round pick to be used on offense for OL, WR, RB.

 

We've had threads for the first round pick to be used on offense for Pass Rusher, CB, S, ILB, OLB, NT.    Pretty much every spot on the defense.

 

I think you can see where I'm going with this.  

 

Despite the Colts very much improved roster,  we still have needs...  perhaps not holes, but needs. (OK, one hole, RG)   But lots of needs for at least roster quality depth.

 

Those are not going to get filled with 1/3/4/6/7/7.    They can be easily be addressed with 2/3/3/4/5/6/7/7.

 

Bottom line:    We still have lots of needs.    We don't have lots of picks.   The only way to do that is to trade down.    Maybe even more than once.     I don't see someone landing at 24 who is so good, that I wouldn't still want to trade down.

 

That's still my view..........

 

What are yours??

[Dustin]

It depends on who's at 24. If a top talent drops (Cooper, Jarvis Jones, ect..) than I am against trading back because I feel we get more value from them then we would from two 3rd round players.

[jshipp23]

Jarvis Jones, Cooper, or Warmack will fall...If not go LAAAACCCYYY...

[BOTT]

I pretty much agree...unless a pass rusher like Mingo unexpectedly dropped. I would prefer the colts trade down if the choice is between corners and wide receivers.

[HtownColt]

Don't like the idea of trading back personally, just been my view the whole time. I'm not going to pass on the talent that should be available at 24.

If there is somebody who you feel can come in and contribute right away and be a cornerstone of this franchise for eight or 10 years, what is really the value if a team is just going to give you a 3rd- and 5th or 6th-round pick(that's if you can squeeze a late round pick from them, it might be just a 3rd) to bypass a guy that you really feel good about, have conviction about? I don't see that happening.

I'm staying put at 24

[ponyboy]

Agree.. except I think you need to drop the 5. I don't think you'd get 2, 3, 5 for #24 unless you're dropping low into the 2nd round. I'd prefer to see dropping no farther than the top 10 of the 2nd even if it meant not getting that extra 5th.

And as Dustin said, it depends on who's there at #24 (Warmack, Cooper, Star, J Jones).

[Colts_Fan12]

There have been enough Colts Mock drafts posted that I thought it would be a good idea to sharpen the focus here....

People do Mocks with and without trading down.

Without, we've got picks 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 7. Missing are picks 2 and 5.

With trading down we'd likely have 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 7. We gain 3 picks for our 1. It's even possible we could trade down twice and collect even more picks.

Also.... there have been no shortage of threads discussing various team needs and whenever that happens, someone throws out a name in the first round (as if other rounds don't exist) and those names get debates...

So we've had threads for the first round pick to be used on offense for OL, WR, RB.

We've had threads for the first round pick to be used on offense for Pass Rusher, CB, S, ILB, OLB, NT. Pretty much every spot on the defense.

I think you can see where I'm going with this.

Despite the Colts very much improved roster, we still have needs... perhaps not holes, but needs. (OK, one hole, RG) But lots of needs for at least roster quality depth.

Those are not going to get filled with 1/3/4/6/7/7. They can be easily be addressed with 2/3/3/4/5/6/7/7.

Bottom line: We still have lots of needs. We don't have lots of picks. The only way to do that is to trade down. Maybe even more than once. I don't see someone landing at 24 who is so good, that I wouldn't still want to trade down.

That's still my view..........

What are yours??

If Cooper Warmack or Jarvis is there take them off not trade back

[sultan5]

If Cooper Warmack or Jarvis is there take them off not trade back

Dude this is kinda funny. Explain how the Needs arent going to get filled with the 1/3/4/6/7/7. Right? But can "easily" be filled with trading down? im sorry man but im trying to get the logic here. If we dont trade down and keep a first round guy  ( and there are plenty of firsrt round guys that can fill a need better, maybe by assumption, than a second round pick, then we still have 6 more picks to keep filling needs. How can our needs not be filled with 7 draft picks including a first rounder?

[sultan5]

If Cooper Warmack or Jarvis is there take them off not trade back

sorry 12, meant to quote the guy you were quoting.

[southwest1]

I leave the draft to others like Dustin who are much smarter at draft manipulation than I am. I agree with HtownColt. Stay put & don't move from the natural order unless you love a guy & you know he will be gone once you get to picking again. If your GM & HC know what they are doing, they know how to evaluate talent & insert the right personnel into their scheme.

I wait until official training camp & then see how we gel, hit, & fly to the ball. Keep up the good work fellas! I know when others are well versed in scouting than I am. Good blog entry BTW NCF!

[Archer]

Dude this is kinda funny. Explain how the Needs arent going to get filled with the 1/3/4/6/7/7. Right? But can "easily" be filled with trading down? im sorry man but im trying to get the logic here. If we dont trade down and keep a first round guy  ( and there are plenty of firsrt round guys that can fill a need better, maybe by assumption, than a second round pick, then we still have 6 more picks to keep filling needs. How can our needs not be filled with 7 draft picks including a first rounder?

 

I agree with this.  Our roster is pretty well filled out compared to the last couple of years.  We're badly in need of OL depth, but other than that we have no desperate needs.  the 134677 should do just fine...

[ztboiler]

I love the idea of trading back, always have.  I keep a spreadsheet with all the top prospects and first round draft order - not that it means anything - but I play with all sorts of scenarios for the first round while considering team needs, latest news/lies, and relative prospect value.  All completely meaningless, just love to do it.  Anyway, no matter how I slice it, I come up with a scenario that yields a player at 24 that I think is too good to pass up with trading down.  There are 6 players that I specifically think of that all have value in this category who could conceivably fall to us.  The longshots are Rhodes, Warmack and Cooper - but it isn't as long a shot as it seems when you look at the needs of other teams and how they might value other available talent.  We just don't know.  My favorite realistic prospect at 24 is Sylvester Williams - I've settled on him as my ideal pick at 24 and I also think it is 50/50 he is gone before the OG's.  The most likely to be available are Justin Hunter and Datone Jones.  Both have rare talents difficult to find in later rounds.  Datone is a safe pick and Hunter more risky.  If I can't get one of those 6, I'd like to see a trade down, but I can't see it if one of them is there.  Hard to see one of them not being there. I am, of course, completely wrong about all this, but it has been such fun reaching unsubstantiated uneducated conclusions!

[NewColtsFan]

If Cooper Warmack or Jarvis is there take them off not trade back

 

I'd agree with Cooper and Warmack...    but I don't expect either of them to be available anywhere near 24....

 

Jones....   not much of a fan....   I'd hope to get him in the 2nd round...  he's played his way out of my 1st round.

 

I think he's a first round talent....  but lesser round mentally....   very disappointing to me...

[sultan5]

There have been enough Colts Mock drafts posted that I thought it would be a good idea to sharpen the focus here....

 

People do Mocks with and without trading down.

 

Without,  we've got picks 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 7.    Missing are picks 2 and 5.

 

With trading down we'd likely have  2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 7.      We gain 3 picks for our 1.   It's even possible we could trade down twice and collect even more picks.

 

Also....    there have been no shortage of threads discussing various team needs and whenever that happens,  someone throws out a name in the first round (as if other rounds don't exist) and those names get debates...

 

So we've had threads for the first round pick to be used on offense for OL, WR, RB.

 

We've had threads for the first round pick to be used on offense for Pass Rusher, CB, S, ILB, OLB, NT.    Pretty much every spot on the defense.

 

I think you can see where I'm going with this.  

 

Despite the Colts very much improved roster,  we still have needs...  perhaps not holes, but needs. (OK, one hole, RG)   But lots of needs for at least roster quality depth.

 

Those are not going to get filled with 1/3/4/6/7/7.    They can be easily be addressed with 2/3/3/4/5/6/7/7.

 

Bottom line:    We still have lots of needs.    We don't have lots of picks.   The only way to do that is to trade down.    Maybe even more than once.     I don't see someone landing at 24 who is so good, that I wouldn't still want to trade down.

 

That's still my view..........

 

What are yours??

How many more needs do we really have that we cant fill it without trading down? Grigson did a phenomenal job with our F/A money, and all the football sites are giving him his due, i mean we got serious starters and nothing less. then we got top rated backups too. so what im saying is, the only starter i see coming from this draft, speaking from a Depth Chart point-of-view, is the RG. Every other draft pick is going to get stuck behind a solid starter. So basically, this draft is for forming a solid competitive depth chart. Hopefully a starter comes from the draft, but really, we dont need a starter. And its a luxury that comes from such a solid F/A. we dont need to trade down. the idea that we cant fill any needs with a first rounder is just funny.

[Colts_Fan12]

I'd agree with Cooper and Warmack... but I don't expect either of them to be available anywhere near 24....

Jones.... not much of a fan.... I'd hope to get him in the 2nd round... he's played his way out of my 1st round.

I think he's a first round talent.... but lesser round mentally.... very disappointing to me...

Me personally I'm not crazy about him I want a RG more then anything IMO if cooper and warmack are gone I would trade back for warford in the second

[sultan5]

I love the idea of trading back, always have.  I keep a spreadsheet with all the top prospects and first round draft order - not that it means anything - but I play with all sorts of scenarios for the first round while considering team needs, latest news/lies, and relative prospect value.  All completely meaningless, just love to do it.  Anyway, no matter how I slice it, I come up with a scenario that yields a player at 24 that I think is too good to pass up with trading down.  There are 6 players that I specifically think of that all have value in this category who could conceivably fall to us.  The longshots are Rhodes, Warmack and Cooper - but it isn't as long a shot as it seems when you look at the needs of other teams and how they might value other available talent.  We just don't know.  My favorite realistic prospect at 24 is Sylvester Williams - I've settled on him as my ideal pick at 24 and I also think it is 50/50 he is gone before the OG's.  The most likely to be available are Justin Hunter and Datone Jones.  Both have rare talents difficult to find in later rounds.  Datone is a safe pick and Hunter more risky.  If I can't get one of those 6, I'd like to see a trade down, but I can't see it if one of them is there.  Hard to see one of them not being there. I am, of course, completely wrong about all this, but it has been such fun reaching unsubstantiated uneducated conclusions!

Yesssss....yesss..yesss.....like you, my Friend....I love Football too!!!!

[coltsfanatic24]

If we trade back will be getting a less talented player. We need a player that is gonna have a great impact on our team. Not saying a second rounder couldn't have a great impact but its much more likely that  a 1st rounder will. Datone Jones,Jarvis Jones,and Trufant are players who should be there when we pick and all have 1st round talent.

[Gavin]

I have a list of players I would definitly pick if by chance they were there

 

Cooper

Warmack

(both can happen or 1 can, they are Guards)

Carradine

Rhodes

Bjoern Werner

Damontre Moore

Jesse Williams

and 2 more I might add to this list once I had time to study them more (Jamar Taylor, Datone Jones MAYBE)

[BOTT]

If we trade back will be getting a less talented player. We need a player that is gonna have a great impact on our team. Not saying a second rounder couldn't have a great impact but its much more likely that  a 1st rounder will. Datone Jones,Jarvis Jones,and Trufant are players who should be there when we pick and all have 1st round talent.

I doubt it....there really isn't a talent gap between 24-44

[ztboiler]

Me personally I'm not crazy about him I want a RG more then anything IMO if cooper and warmack are gone I would trade back for warford in the second

I see the hole at RG too, but there is a much bigger world out there than that.  More players of impact that might fall.  I'm good with the Warford scenario - it is well thought out.  I'd even be good with picking Warford at 24 if Grigs deems worthy.

[Colts_Fan12]

I see the hole at RG too, but there is a much bigger world out there than that. More players of impact that might fall. I'm good with the Warford scenario - it is well thought out. I'd even be good with picking Warford at 24 if Grigs deems worthy.

Yeah that's why If cooper or warmack is there I'd just take them but if not trade back could possibly trade back twice to late in the first then into early second get warford and have more picks in the 3rd if we got warford we could get possibly Moore if he fell like some believe or bell to go with Vick

[Gavin]

I see the hole at RG too, but there is a much bigger world out there than that.  More players of impact that might fall.  I'm good with the Warford scenario - it is well thought out.  I'd even be good with picking Warford at 24 if Grigs deems worthy.

NOOOOOOOO to Warford at 24, slow footed, will get get abused by smaller DT's on double moves and is not quite as good a drive blocker as I thought originally 

 

 

I'd be happy if we got him in a trade down though

[evilleseniorfan]

Did free agency end?

The FO has done a great job of stabilizing this team for 2-3 years and building a foundation for the long term through last years draft and this years free agency acquisitions. Let's make one more free agent-acq to solidify the OL, and continue building for the long term future

[FalseStart]

     NO TRADE IF...

1. Jones OLB, Moore OLB, Cooper G, Warmack G

 

TRADE IF...OUR 1st & 6th for 2nd,3rd,5th.

 

2. Lacy RB, Jones DE, Fluker G, Elam FS

3. Schwenke C/G, Winters G, Jones C/G, Rogers WR

3. Lemonier OLB, Washington OLB, Buchanan OLB, Bostic OLB, Swearinger FS, Wreh-Wilson CB

4. Bell RB, Pugh G, Kruger DE, Thomas FS

5. Evans FS, Hughes DT, Gillislee RB

7. Thornton G, Nealy DE, Armstrong FS

7. Hansen C, Cave C, McCalebb RB

[NewColtsFan]

NOOOOOOOO to Warford at 24, slow footed, will get get abused by smaller DT's on double moves and is not quite as good a drive blocker as I thought originally 

 

 

I'd be happy if we got him in a trade down though

 

 

But Gavin....   Warford has a higher grade than even Cooper does on NFL.com!!    And Warford is the 17th ranked player overall on that website!   How can this be?    And yet,  you don't want Warford? (unless it's the 2nd round)  Why,   I'm shocked!!

 

 

[esmort]

I have seen the 2,3,5 (with the 2 being a high pick) for our 1st round pick trade being thrown around a lot.  I tend to agree with an ealier poster... I think that is an overly optimistic scenario.  I just do not see it happening (us getting an early 2 + a 3, & 5) unless everything aligns perfectly for some sort of QB trade scenario, or we trade into to the bottom half of the 2nd round.

 

I would love for us to pick up a few extra good picks just to move to the top of the 2nd, but it is unlikely.  Although I do believe someone unexpected that most thought would be long gone will be there at 24.

[Gavin]

But Gavin....   Warford has a higher grade than even Cooper does on NFL.com!!    And Warford is the 17th ranked player overall on that website!   How can this be?    And yet,  you don't want Warford? (unless it's the 2nd round)  Why,   I'm shocked!!

 

Got me eh! Still, its clear to me at least that Warford is not in Coopers league and I dont care if he was ranked even higher(if he was), I would not touch him in the 1st, slow footed and not that good in space

[NewColtsFan]

Got me eh! Still, its clear to me at least that Warford is not in Coopers league and I dont care if he was ranked even higher(if he was), I would not touch him in the 1st, slow footed and not that good in space

 

For what it's worth,  scouts rave about Warford against Richardson, the great DT of Missouri.

 

Say he clearly got the best of him....   I haven't see than tape, but wanted to note it here...

[Gavin]

For what it's worth,  scouts rave about Warford against Richardson, the great DT of Missouri.

 

Say he clearly got the best of him....   I haven't see than tape, but wanted to note it here...

From what I can tell (my novice eye that is) he did, Warford got beat to the inside a couple times (1 by Matt Hoch with a good swim move) other then that he did pretty good I thought, Just to risky a pick for me at 24 but he does show plenty of promise, I dont think Richardson really used much in the form of pass rush moves from what I could see

[NewColtsFan]

From what I can tell (my novice eye that is) he did, Warford got beat to the inside a couple times (1 by Matt Hoch with a good swim move) other then that he did pretty good I thought, Just to risky a pick for me at 24 but he does show plenty of promise, I dont think Richardson really used much in the form of pass rush moves from what I could see

 

For the record, and it's not the first time I've said this....

 

But, I don't want to use the 24th pick for Warford....   I'd be fine if we traded back and took him...  but not at 24...

 

At 24, I'd like a premium position....   pass rusher,  CB,  WR....   something that makes the Colts more explosive and dangerous.  If we don't trade back we can take a good guard in the 3rd round.

[Gavin]

For the record, and it's not the first time I've said this....

 

But, I don't want to use the 24th pick for Warford....   I'd be fine if we traded back and took him...  but not at 24...

 

At 24, I'd like a premium position....   pass rusher,  CB,  WR....   something that makes the Colts more explosive and dangerous.  If we don't trade back we can take a good guard in the 3rd round.

Agree........But if by some chance Cooper is there then all bets are off

[deano]

I think there is some excellent talent available in rounds 2 to early 3.

I would love to get some more picks........

I am for doing the trade

[deano]

For the record, and it's not the first time I've said this....

 

But, I don't want to use the 24th pick for Warford....   I'd be fine if we traded back and took him...  but not at 24...

 

At 24, I'd like a premium position....   pass rusher,  CB,  WR....   something that makes the Colts more explosive and dangerous.  If we don't trade back we can take a good guard in the 3rd round.

Warford will probably last to the mid to high 40's

We just have to find the right trading partner

[Luckynumber12]

The only way i wouldnt trade down is if  Jarvis Jones OLB   Johnathon Cooper OG    Barkevious Mingo OLB )  if they r all gone id trade down and pick up picks

[ztboiler]

I have a list of players I would definitly pick if by chance they were there

 

Cooper

Warmack

(both can happen or 1 can, they are Guards)

Carradine

Rhodes

Bjoern Werner

Damontre Moore

Jesse Williams

and 2 more I might add to this list once I had time to study them more (Jamar Taylor, Datone Jones MAYBE)

The likelihood that one of those players is available at 24 is very high to me.  Not disagreeing with your list, but as criteria for not trading back it is a pretty safe bet you'll pick one at 24.

[NewColtsFan]

Warford will probably last to the mid to high 40's

We just have to find the right trading partner

 

I suspect you're right....   and while I don't mean to push our luck...  if need be,  I'd trade down twice if I had to.

 

Once to the top of the 2nd round....    and then, a 2nd time to the high 40's...  roughly the upper-middle of the 2nd round.

 

I think we'd gain many desirable picks and make it worth our while...

[#18forever]

I believe we should trade down and with our second or third round pick gran stephen taylor from stanford. If we combine him with luck pep and fleener it would be a dangerous group like at stanford but they are all more developed

[ztboiler]

For the record, and it's not the first time I've said this....

 

But, I don't want to use the 24th pick for Warford....   I'd be fine if we traded back and took him...  but not at 24...

 

At 24, I'd like a premium position....   pass rusher,  CB,  WR....   something that makes the Colts more explosive and dangerous.  If we don't trade back we can take a good guard in the 3rd round.

Part of pre-draft over-fan-analysis (that is me...) includes educated guesses about the principles of the decision-maker - those principles give us insight into how Grigson might break ties and/or assign prospect value on his board.  While I have no doubt that Grigson would draft Cooper or Warmack if they fell to 24 and were his BPA, I also think that his philosophy is to use his scouting prowess locate interior linemen (both sides of the ball) in the middle rounds of the draft.  My guess is that we will find Grigson to lean toward high percentage playmakers in the early rounds though out his career as a GM, while drafting interior lineman for development with greater frequency in the middle rounds.  Contenders drafting late in the first don't seem all that hung up on drafting to popular opinion, they seem content to draft a player that they are confident will contribute early and whom they'll likely want to sign to a second contract.  Look at the number of 1st round picks still on the Ravens roster - most of them have made it as solid contributors.  This kid of conviction in the war room trumps losing sleep over who the most talented prospect actually is and changes the way pro scouts and GMs actually define BPA on their draft boards.    

 

After saying all this, it wouldn't shock me if Sylvester Williams was our pick even if Cooper or Warmack slipped to 24.  That would really frost most of the fanhood around here - but consider the skill sets in the NFL that are most rare - hard to find over time.  If you find something rare, you better pick it up when it is your time.  While this would seem to contradict what I just said about Grigs drafting  interior DL in the middle rounds - the difference is scarcity.  I don't think he'll draft interior run stoppers early very often, but an interior pass rusher is a completely different story. They come along much less frequently than all-pro caliber guards and have a much greater impact on the game.

 

For the record, it always felt to me like Polian was punting with his middle round linemen rather than drafting proactively...that is just me though.

[jshipp23]

Got me eh! Still, its clear to me at least that Warford is not in Coopers league and I dont care if he was ranked even higher(if he was), I would not touch him in the 1st, slow footed and not that good in space

Cooper is so much better it's not even close...Rather have Fluker converted to Guard in the first than trading back into the second for warford...Fluker may take more time to develop , but his size and power can't be taught and he will be a Monster at guard in a few years could be Larry Allen like...If the Colts are dead set on going O-Line with the 1st pick