How Grigson fooled us...

[ztboiler]

While I agree with part of what you said, the major difference is that Steelers ans ravens backloaded their contracts. Grigson is using a static cap. Its the job of the GM to bring in younger talent. Grigson has. Steelers and ravens you could argue haven't. Grigsons static cap strategy will gain is 40 mil cap next off-season and a similar numbers in 2015. Read @superman post to et an idea of how we will be able to pay luck, yet keep our veteran talent. I respect your opinion.

 

My hope is that Grigson will begin making tough choices proactively - ie. stick to what you are calling a static cap.  I love sustainability.  However, the GM's job is to win a superbowl, not simply to be cap compliant in a sustainable forward looking fashion by bringing in younger less expensive talent.  While we can look critically at the cap messes of the referenced teams, they won superbowls by hanging onto expensive key pieces with backloaded cap numbers.  The maligned Polian did as well.  When push comes to shove, we'd all take the superbowls over "GM Cap Manager of the year" awards.  History says that mature teams will work themselves into a bad cap situation when their players succeed on the field.  We'll probably be no different.....again.  It is the design of the salary cap system, and the results say it is very good for the growth of the game overall.

[Superman]

Dead money equates to salary cap hits after salary for the year is guaranteed. In most cases, you can release a player before the new year begins and not be on the hook for any money. Unless it otherwise states in the contract. Once league year starts, all players under.contract are guaranteed their salary.

Dead money ensues once a player is cut with a guaranteed salary. What sport trac had was a cap penalty for releasing player.

 

 

Walden it actually is even better then Overthecap has it.

 

According to Sportrac, Walden's 2nd year salary only becomes guaranteed after the 5th day of the 2014 league year.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/erik-walden/

 

So if he sucks this year we can actually cut him before that day for only $750,000 in dead money.  

 

Only Cherilus and Landry are we invested in them for more then 1 year.  

 

I think you two might be talking about two different seasons.

 

If we were to release Walden right now, or at the end of camp, his dead cap hit would be $4m. If we release him before his $4m base salary is guaranteed on the 5th day of the 2014 league year, his dead cap hit is $750k. If we release him after the 5th day of the 2014 league year, his dead cap hit would be $4.75m.

 

And just to nitpick with the bolded statement above, players with four years of accrued service are vested veterans, and their entire base salary is guaranteed once Week 1 of the regular season begins. Any player without four years of service only has their base salary guaranteed if their contract stipulates, like Luck, whose entire four year contract is fully guaranteed.

[BronxColtNYC]

I think you two might be talking about two different seasons.

 

If we were to release Walden right now, or at the end of camp, his dead cap hit would be $4m. If we release him before his $4m base salary is guaranteed on the 5th day of the 2014 league year, his dead cap hit is $750k. If we release him after the 5th day of the 2014 league year, his dead cap hit would be $4.75m.

 

And just to nitpick with the bolded statement above, players with four years of accrued service are vested veterans, and their entire base salary is guaranteed once Week 1 of the regular season begins. Any player without four years of service only has their base salary guaranteed if their contract stipulates, like Luck, whose entire four year contract is fully guaranteed.

You're correct, I misspoke.

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=nflnation&id=73449&src=desktop

Dead Cap hit = prorated bonus + unpaid portion of any guaranteed money.

[Superman]

My hope is that Grigson will begin making tough choices proactively - ie. stick to what you are calling a static cap.  I love sustainability.  However, the GM's job is to win a superbowl, not simply to be cap compliant in a sustainable forward looking fashion by bringing in younger less expensive talent.  While we can look critically at the cap messes of the referenced teams, they won superbowls by hanging onto expensive key pieces with backloaded cap numbers.  The maligned Polian did as well.  When push comes to shove, we'd all take the superbowls over "GM Cap Manager of the year" awards.  History says that mature teams will work themselves into a bad cap situation when their players succeed on the field.  We'll probably be no different.....again.  It is the design of the salary cap system, and the results say it is very good for the growth of the game overall.

 

I agree with the premise, insofar as a GM will weigh the pros and cons of cap flexibility vs. adding/retaining key players. And having a hard cap, every team will have to make tough decisions about who they sign, who they keep, who they release, etc.

 

But what Bronx is saying is that, if Grigson continues making these decisions as he goes along, structuring the majority of his contracts in a "pay as you go" manner, then the team won't HAVE to use backloaded contracts, and won't have increasing cap hits for even their best players.

 

I don't know if you read my post about how we could apply the "pay as you go" model to a new contract for Luck, in contrast with the backloaded Flacco contract, but the big difference is that Flacco's contract goes from a $12m/year average in the first three years to a $28m/year average in the last three years. You're right in that, once Luck goes from $5m/year to $20m+/year, it's going to cut into our cap space. But with old contracts falling off (Wayne, Mathis, Redding, etc.), and increases in the salary cap, the team should still be in good cap shape, rather than robbing Peter to pay Paul. And the way you set yourself up to have cap room to do a "pay as you go" contract for a player who is going to get a big bonus and a lot of guaranteed money is by doing "pay as you go" contracts along the way, you roll some extra cap space forward, and you do a monster cap hit in the first year of the new deal.

[BronxColtNYC]

I think you two might be talking about two different seasons.

 

If we were to release Walden right now, or at the end of camp, his dead cap hit would be $4m. If we release him before his $4m base salary is guaranteed on the 5th day of the 2014 league year, his dead cap hit is $750k. If we release him after the 5th day of the 2014 league year, his dead cap hit would be $4.75m.

 

And just to nitpick with the bolded statement above, players with four years of accrued service are vested veterans, and their entire base salary is guaranteed once Week 1 of the regular season begins. Any player without four years of service only has their base salary guaranteed if their contract stipulates, like Luck, whose entire four year contract is fully guaranteed.

Thanks for the info on vested veterans.

[BronxColtNYC]

I agree with the premise, insofar as a GM will weigh the pros and cons of cap flexibility vs. adding/retaining key players. And having a hard cap, every team will have to make tough decisions about who they sign, who they keep, who they release, etc.

 

But what Bronx is saying is that, if Grigson continues making these decisions as he goes along, structuring the majority of his contracts in a "pay as you go" manner, then the team won't HAVE to use backloaded contracts, and won't have increasing cap hits for even their best players.

 

I don't know if you read my post about how we could apply the "pay as you go" model to a new contract for Luck, in contrast with the backloaded Flacco contract, but the big difference is that Flacco's contract goes from a $12m/year average in the first three years to a $28m/year average in the last three years. You're right in that, once Luck goes from $5m/year to $20m+/year, it's going to cut into our cap space. But with old contracts falling off (Wayne, Mathis, Redding, etc.), and increases in the salary cap, the team should still be in good cap shape, rather than robbing Peter to pay Paul. And the way you set yourself up to have cap room to do a "pay as you go" contract for a player who is going to get a big bonus and a lot of guaranteed money is by doing "pay as you go" contracts along the way, you roll some extra cap space forward, and you do a monster cap hit in the first year of the new deal.

Pay while you have the money now, not when you HOPE to have it on year 3/4. Declining cap hit. Keep cap static.

[ztboiler]

I agree with the premise, insofar as a GM will weigh the pros and cons of cap flexibility vs. adding/retaining key players. And having a hard cap, every team will have to make tough decisions about who they sign, who they keep, who they release, etc.

 

But what Bronx is saying is that, if Grigson continues making these decisions as he goes along, structuring the majority of his contracts in a "pay as you go" manner, then the team won't HAVE to use backloaded contracts, and won't have increasing cap hits for even their best players.

 

I don't know if you read my post about how we could apply the "pay as you go" model to a new contract for Luck, in contrast with the backloaded Flacco contract, but the big difference is that Flacco's contract goes from a $12m/year average in the first three years to a $28m/year average in the last three years. You're right in that, once Luck goes from $5m/year to $20m+/year, it's going to cut into our cap space. But with old contracts falling off (Wayne, Mathis, Redding, etc.), and increases in the salary cap, the team should still be in good cap shape, rather than robbing Peter to pay Paul. And the way you set yourself up to have cap room to do a "pay as you go" contract for a player who is going to get a big bonus and a lot of guaranteed money is by doing "pay as you go" contracts along the way, you roll some extra cap space forward, and you do a monster cap hit in the first year of the new deal.

Pay as you go is my hope, and I too believe it is possible.  Paying your QB really isn't the issue to me.  That money should be lopped off your available cap and you build your team with the rest.

My concern is that history says that the professionals have all mortgaged the future while striving in the present.  It must be awfully hard to avoid in real life.

[BronxColtNYC]

Pay as you go is my hope, and I too believe it is possible.  Paying your QB really isn't the issue to me.  That money should be lopped off your available cap and you build your team with the rest.

My concern is that history says that the professionals have all mortgaged the future while striving in the present.  It must be awfully hard to avoid in real life.

It can work if Grigson continues the model of signing solid starters, declining cap hit, building through the draft, and not breaking the bank on big name guys.

Every GM says they will do all of these things, but reality is GM's chase the pretty girls.

Grigson said he was bringing this model to Indy, He's actually following through with it.

[ztboiler]

It can work if Grigson continues the model of signing solid starters, declining cap hit, building through the draft, and not breaking the bank on big name guys.

Every GM says they will do all of these things, but reality is GM's chase the pretty girls.

Grigson said he was bringing this model to Indy, He's actually following through with it.

We agree, but reality is that it is much easier to accomplish on a spreadsheet.  The Ravens and Steelers (even Colts of old) didn't get into trouble chasing pretty girls.  They found it expensive to keep the girls they have who made them the men that they are.  Pick your poison, it is the same in every walk of life.  Are we still talking about football??

[Superman]

Pay as you go is my hope, and I too believe it is possible.  Paying your QB really isn't the issue to me.  That money should be lopped off your available cap and you build your team with the rest.

My concern is that history says that the professionals have all mortgaged the future while striving in the present.  It must be awfully hard to avoid in real life.

 

I agree with the bolded. You get what you pay for.

 

I also agree that, historically, teams have mortgaged the future, but they've done so primarily with signing bonuses. If my assumption that there is no restriction on how large of a Year 1 roster bonus you can give a player, then it would disappoint me if 2015-16 comes around, we're sitting on $50m in cap space, and we don't dump as much of Luck's bonus as possible into that Year 1. And with a somewhat static cap for the next few years, and with $5m in cap rollover for the next three seasons, plus a cap that's expected to start going up around that time, we could very easily have $50m in cap space.

 

The real key is going to be to draft well. I've been a very vocal defender of Bill Polian in the past, but when you look at his last five drafts, we didn't get very many big contributors, almost no quality starters. That led to us overpaying to keep guys like Kelvin Hayden and Gary Brackett. Didn't help that Bob Sanders couldn't perform, or that Dallas Clark had a rash of injuries that essentially made him useless, and so on. If we draft well, we'll be able to walk away from our own guys who might price themselves out. James Laurinitis instead of Donald Brown allows us to walk away from Gary Brackett, etc.

 

The jury is still out on Grigson, but the early indications and early returns are very positive. Doesn't hurt that he lucked into Luck (get it??), but the rest of his moves and his long term vision appear to be solid.

[BronxColtNYC]

We agree, but reality is that it is much easier to accomplish on a spreadsheet.  The Ravens and Steelers (even Colts of old) didn't get into trouble chasing pretty girls.  They found it expensive to keep the girls they have who made them the men that they are.  Pick your poison, it is the same in every walk of life.  Are we still talking about football??

I'm excited to see how it plays out. The team building, not the girls to men thing.

[BronxColtNYC]

I agree with the bolded. You get what you pay for.

I also agree that, historically, teams have mortgaged the future, but they've done so primarily with signing bonuses. If my assumption that there is no restriction on how large of a Year 1 roster bonus you can give a player, then it would disappoint me if 2015-16 comes around, we're sitting on $50m in cap space, and we don't dump as much of Luck's bonus as possible into that Year 1. And with a somewhat static cap for the next few years, and with $5m in cap rollover for the next three seasons, plus a cap that's expected to start going up around that time, we could very easily have $50m in cap space.

The real key is going to be to draft well. I've been a very vocal defender of Bill Polian in the past, but when you look at his last five drafts, we didn't get very many big contributors, almost no quality starters. That led to us overpaying to keep guys like Kelvin Hayden and Gary Brackett. Didn't help that Bob Sanders couldn't perform, or that Dallas Clark had a rash of injuries that essentially made him useless, and so on. If we draft well, we'll be able to walk away from our own guys who might price themselves out. James Laurinitis instead of Donald Brown allows us to walk away from Gary Brackett, etc..

The jury is still out on Grigson, but the early indications and early returns are very positive. Doesn't hurt that he lucked into Luck (get it??), but the rest of his moves and his long term vision appear to be solid.

This ^ let's credit the great start but wait a few more years before we call him parcells

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

I'm glad you asked. I WANT EVEryone to understand this.

This may help more. Our total cap hit for all players under contact comes out to 87 million. 121.5-87=34.5

You get 87 million by adding base salary plus prorated bonus.

Base salary total is 64 million plus prorated bonuses of 23 million

Add carry over money

Add tv deal cap increase.

Rounds out to 40 or more.

Here's a link.

http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Colts&Year=2014

You are still going to have to sign draft picks & undrafted free agents this year.

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

Many posters here were very upset with the choices Grigson made during free agency this year. Average to above average players that many felt we overpaid for. I was initially upset with how we were blatantly going after mid level players when all the big fish were out there.

Everything changed when I started looking at the numbers more closely.

While most of us were bellyaching about the signings, Grigson was actually building cap room!!!!!!

However, then I started looking at how Grigson has structured the contracts of our new free agents and realized that he had not done the “standard” practiced of pushing much of the cap hits off into the future for a lower cap hit this year. Most of the contracts were pretty even.

Take for example OG Donald Thomas. He signed a 4-year, $14 million deal with $3.5 million guaranteed money which consisted of his $1 million signing bonus and his first year $2.5 million dollar salary. He will make $3.5 million dollar salaries for his 2nd, 3rd and 4th years of his contract so his cap hit will be:

Thomas; 2013 = $2,750,000, 2014 = $3,750,000, 2015 = $3,750,000, 2016 = $3,750,000

So, while we get a small cap relief in year one of the contract, we DO NOT get a balloon down the road that can be painful to accept.

The same was done for many of the other contracts:

Landry: 2013 = $5,750,000, 2014 = $5,750,000, 2015 = $6,250,000, 2016 = $6,250,000 Waldren: 2013 = $3,250,000, 2014 = $4,250,000 2015 = $4,250,000, 2016 = $4,250,000 Toler: 2013 = $4,333,333, 2015 = $5,333,333, 2016 = $5,333,333 RJF = Don’t know, contract info has not come out yet.

The only contract that Grigson did the “traditional” thing of pushing money into out years was that of Cherilus. Gosder signed a 5-year, $34.5 million salary with $15.5 million guaranteed money which consists of his $10 million signing bonus and his first year $5,500,000 dollar salary.

However, his 2nd year salary is only going to be $1,000,000 and his 3rd year salary will be $4,000,000 making those cap hits lower than normal to then push the rest of the money into years 4 and 5 (and allow an easy “break” point if he has not lived up to his contract status). His cap hits:

Cherilus: 2013 = $7,500,000, 2014 = $3,000,000, 2015 = $ 6,000,000, 2016 = $9,000,000, 2017 = $9,000,000

This is the only “escalating” salary that Grigson signed this year.

What this translates into is that the Colts have a pretty static salary cap situation for the next couple of years. At my best guess, for the 47 players currently under contract for the 2014-2015 NFL season, they are only using $86 million in cap space for 2014 leaving about $38 million of free space for next season.

Obviously, there are a few more things that need to come out of that 2014 number like; this year’s rookie 2nd year cap hits, next year’s rookie cap hits, and re-signing our own free agents (which we have a lot).

But, it just goes to show that we could easily re-sign some of our more valuable free agents ( out of: Bethea, Davis, Vinatieri, Donald Brown, McAfee, Angerer, Conner, McKinney, Moala) in addition to adding another player or two from other teams if needed.

Largest Ten 2013 Cap Hits: Mathis =………………..$ 10,750,000 Cherilus = ………………$ 7,500,000 Wayne = ………….…….$ 7,500,000 Bethea = ………………..$ 5,750,000 Landry = ………………..$ 5,750,000 Luck = ……………………$ 5,024,545 Jean-Francois = ……..$ 4,750,000 (estimated since we don’t have exact numbers yet) Redding = ……………..$ 4,391,667 Toler = ………………….$ 4,333,333 Satele = ………………..$ 3,866,667

Largest Ten 2014 Cap Hits: Mathis = ………………..$ 8,750,000 Wayne = ………………..$ 6,500,000 Luck = …………………….$ 6,029,454 Landry = …………………$ 5,750,000 Satele = ………………….$ 5,366,667 Toler = …………………..$ 5,333,333 Jean-Francois = ………$ 5,250,000 (estimated) Redding = ………………$ 4,391,667 Walden = ……………….$ 4,250,000 Thomas = ………………$ 3,750,000

So, right now, after signing a whole host of free agents this year, we only have 7 players scheduled to have a cap hit of more than $ 5 million in 2014. Sure, re-signing some of our own (Davis) will cost more but we are in a very friendly situation already for 2014 and will be in a position to spend to retain our own and add another piece or three next year as required.

Discuss...

Satele will never see this money if his play doesn't improve!

[BronxColtNYC]

You are still going to have to sign draft picks & undrafted free agents this year.

In my numbers, I carried over a projected 3 mil. Sorry, I should've stated as much.

I think we have close to

9mil left-6 mil for picks/emergency signings=3 mil.

[BronxColtNYC]

Satele will never see this money if his play doesn't improve!

Satele will never see this money if his play doesn't improve!

I agree, no way Grigson pays him 5 mil next year. This may be his last year as a colt.

[Superman]

In my numbers, I carried over a projected 3 mil. Sorry, I should've stated as much.

I think we have close to

9mil left-6 mil for picks/emergency signings=3 mil.

 

Our draft picks will probably total around $3.6m this year, assuming we stay where we are. And probably only our first and third rounders will count against our working cap number in the preseason, when only the top 51 contracts matter.

[ztboiler]

I agree with the bolded. You get what you pay for.

 

I also agree that, historically, teams have mortgaged the future, but they've done so primarily with signing bonuses. If my assumption that there is no restriction on how large of a Year 1 roster bonus you can give a player, then it would disappoint me if 2015-16 comes around, we're sitting on $50m in cap space, and we don't dump as much of Luck's bonus as possible into that Year 1. And with a somewhat static cap for the next few years, and with $5m in cap rollover for the next three seasons, plus a cap that's expected to start going up around that time, we could very easily have $50m in cap space.

 

The real key is going to be to draft well. I've been a very vocal defender of Bill Polian in the past, but when you look at his last five drafts, we didn't get very many big contributors, almost no quality starters. That led to us overpaying to keep guys like Kelvin Hayden and Gary Brackett. Didn't help that Bob Sanders couldn't perform, or that Dallas Clark had a rash of injuries that essentially made him useless, and so on. If we draft well, we'll be able to walk away from our own guys who might price themselves out. James Laurinitis instead of Donald Brown allows us to walk away from Gary Brackett, etc.

 

The jury is still out on Grigson, but the early indications and early returns are very positive. Doesn't hurt that he lucked into Luck (get it??), but the rest of his moves and his long term vision appear to be solid.

 

It will absolutely work if they draft well - as you point out.

 

I looked at signing bonuses forward and backward while running scenarios pre-free agency.  I hate the way they mortgage the future.  Then I realized that if you factor in the cap carryover,  the signing bonuses aren't the real problem.  The lack of discipline not to spend the cap savings is the problem.  Money is money. Still, your proposed position on roster bonuses makes a lot more sense to me to keep things level or declining.  The wildcard with maturing rosters is guaranteed money which vets command at premier levels of achievement. That problem remains.

[Superman]

It will absolutely work if they draft well - as you point out.

 

I looked at signing bonuses forward and backward while running scenarios pre-free agency.  I hate the way they mortgage the future.  Then I realized that if you factor in the cap carryover,  the signing bonuses aren't the real problem.  The lack of discipline not to spend the cap savings is the problem.  Money is money. Still, your proposed position on roster bonuses makes a lot more sense to me to keep things level or declining.  The wildcard with maturing rosters is guaranteed money which vets command at premier levels of achievement. That problem remains.

 

A great deal of guaranteed money is future salary, or triggered guarantees. What's really hurting is the signing bonus + the increasing base salaries, guaranteed or not. Roster bonuses solve part of that problem, and make it easier to balance out future salaries. And the way most of our contracts are set up will make it easier for us to use roster bonuses on some of our bigger contracts, particularly for the quarterback.

[Deathiltis]

This is a great thread. If you control the cap that's how you build a monster in free agency football. It's the path to the super bowl.

[Tark The Shark]

Absolutely OP.

 

Thank you for validating my thoughts and a lot of others that have believed Girgson has done everything to set the team up for greatness, short and long term.

[ztboiler]

A great deal of guaranteed money is future salary, or triggered guarantees. What's really hurting is the signing bonus + the increasing base salaries, guaranteed or not. Roster bonuses solve part of that problem, and make it easier to balance out future salaries. And the way most of our contracts are set up will make it easier for us to use roster bonuses on some of our bigger contracts, particularly for the quarterback.

Yes, the combo of large signing bonuses and escalating base are a cap killer - you are spot on - they force you to carry players past the point where you'd otherwise cut them.  Unfortunately, that means the signing bonus/salary guarantees will remain as a negotiated feature of elite player contracts - handcuffs.  This brings us full circle to the off-season we are having.  Grigs was smart to avoid players which could demand those guarantees.  Its when you have players producing on your team at an elite level that we will struggle to avoid the guarantees which cripple.  It really doesn't matter what form the guarantee takes and players/agents know it.  Even if those players produce like Steelers not Jets, eventually those guarantees will get you if try to keep players through the end of their useful years.  Belichek has erred on the side of early exits, but one also has to wonder if a Richard Seymour, who has played at a pretty high level for the Raiders, would have helped them close the deal - the exact decision all GM's struggle with.  In real life, mature teams will become cap strapped more than likely because it takes a lot of guaranteed money to retain stars.  

[Luck_Is_Skilled]

In accordance with signing under the radar players, the Colts are receiving little media attention on the positive side. What little attention is paid is largely negative. As the OP suggests, the media hasn't looked under the hood at what is really going because the only news that will sell is some kind of declaration about who won or lost the free agency period. Not much fun to write about a Colts approach that was fiscally responsible and unable to further analyze about quality until the season is at least halfway thru.

I'd simplify Grigson's approach to this free agency period as an extension of the draft - only with some data of actual NFL performance to justify his assessments. He identified young players who he thinks have 1st round talent and measurables who have largely been in limited roles or had circumstances that kept them under the radar. He proceeded to pay them like 1st round picks, only without the contract guarantees. He paid them for the way he thinks they will play in our system, just like is true of a 1st round pick. It is a different approach than most teams can claim they've used in free agency, so it isn't fully understood by the masses. He only paid 2 players in line with the classic big name model, Cherilus and Landry, which is awarding contracts based solely on the market (or over market) for what they have already accomplished. The other contracts were a compromise - more years for the Colts and slightly elevated contract average for the player, should the player be fortunate enough to play to the level to justify receiving it.

I love this assessment. Using free agency as an extension of the draft. It's pretty clever. Based proven talent, each of our major FA signings would in fact be 1st round picks this year. And they were all paid accordingly without crippling the franchises pocket book.. Now we use the real draft to further supplement this roster and the monster building continues.

[masterlock]

The beauty of the situation is that we only have 6 players that make a base of 5mil or more. That's how we have a near complete team, but aren't breaking the bank.

 

Before the start of free agency, I understood that the Colts were between $39M and $46M (depending on the source) under the cap. Then they went and signed several free agents, after which I read they were around $11M or so (also depending on the source). Jim Irsay, for some strange reason keeps saying he's "cash over cap". Anyway, the numbers indicated on the page you cite aren't consistent with other estimates. I understand the math you used in your explanation. I just saying that the conclusion of that math isn't consistent with what I've heard from other sources.

[ColtStrong2013]

Before the start of free agency, I understood that the Colts were between $39M and $46M (depending on the source) under the cap. Then they went and signed several free agents, after which I read they were around $11M or so (also depending on the source). Jim Irsay, for some strange reason keeps saying he's "cash over cap". Anyway, the numbers indicated on the page you cite aren't consistent with other estimates. I understand the math you used in your explanation. I just saying that the conclusion of that math isn't consistent with what I've heard from other sources.

"Cash over cap" only means that we have spent, in new contracts via free agency, more than the cap for this year. doesn't have anything to do with being over the cap.

Meaning: if the cap is 130 million this year. We spent over 130 million in new contracts.

[cbear]

Very thought provoking post.  But doesn't this all work because right now, we don't really have any more superstar type players since we are technically still rebuilding and paying scrub wages (for want of a better term).  Once some of our players are proven, let's say Luck, TY, Fleener or Allen, maybe a couple more and they start demanding superstar money, what happens then?

[BronxColtNYC]

It will absolutely work if they draft well - as you point out.

 

I looked at signing bonuses forward and backward while running scenarios pre-free agency.  I hate the way they mortgage the future.  Then I realized that if you factor in the cap carryover,  the signing bonuses aren't the real problem.  The lack of discipline not to spend the cap savings is the problem.  Money is money. Still, your proposed position on roster bonuses makes a lot more sense to me to keep things level or declining.  The wildcard with maturing rosters is guaranteed money which vets command at premier levels of achievement. That problem remains.

He sees the light!!!! Lol

I'm grateful for @ztboiler, @superman, and everybody else contributing to probably the most intellectual thread I've seen. hese threads keep us informed and only make colts fandom that much more exciting.

[BronxColtNYC]

A great deal of guaranteed money is future salary, or triggered guarantees. What's really hurting is the signing bonus + the increasing base salaries, guaranteed or not. Roster bonuses solve part of that problem, and make it easier to balance out future salaries. And the way most of our contracts are set up will make it easier for us to use roster bonuses on some of our bigger contracts, particularly for the quarterback.

The advantageous factor that some people don't see that with the static cap, Grigson could maintain a carry over of 25-40 million every offseason. He can keep adding young,underrated talent to the club, while still paying our stars. Obviously with more stars we sign or re-sign, our cap will take a hit but like @superman stated, if we pay most guaranteed bonus upfront, you don't necessarily have to count that against the cap in successive years. That's what Grigson did with a lot of the contracts, which is why the prorated bonus maintains so low. It also eliminates high dead money because bonus will already be paid (unpaid guaranteed money goes against the cap). Grigson can keep cap static yet maximize carry over with declining cap hit aka frontloaded contracts.

[BronxColtNYC]

Absolutely OP.

 

Thank you for validating my thoughts and a lot of others that have believed Girgson has done everything to set the team up for greatness, short and long term.

I felt it was important for some posters to know the extent at which Grigson is helping this franchise. Especially those who don't believe in his tactics, although they are entitled to their opinion, that they know all the facts and numbers. Colts fans should feel very comfortable with the direction of the franchise.

[BronxColtNYC]

Yes, the combo of large signing bonuses and escalating base are a cap killer - you are spot on - they force you to carry players past the point where you'd otherwise cut them.  Unfortunately, that means the signing bonus/salary guarantees will remain as a negotiated feature of elite player contracts - handcuffs.  This brings us full circle to the off-season we are having.  Grigs was smart to avoid players which could demand those guarantees.  Its when you have players producing on your team at an elite level that we will struggle to avoid the guarantees which cripple.  It really doesn't matter what form the guarantee takes and players/agents know it.  Even if those players produce like Steelers not Jets, eventually those guarantees will get you if try to keep players through the end of their useful years.  Belichek has erred on the side of early exits, but one also has to wonder if a Richard Seymour, who has played at a pretty high level for the Raiders, would have helped them close the deal - the exact decision all GM's struggle with.  In real life, mature teams will become cap strapped more than likely because it takes a lot of guaranteed money to retain stars.  

None of this is guaranteed to work 100%. It's not full proof, but it's a path not alot of GM's take and KEEP. I believe Grigson is implementing the static cap. It's interesting that you bring up the Pats and keeping players. You could argue that Grigson, with the fan favorite cuts, has done the same. I'll hold out until I sew him do the same with 1 of his guys. But you bring up a fantastic point.

[BronxColtNYC]

I love this assessment. Using free agency as an extension of the draft. It's pretty clever. Based proven talent, each of our major FA signings would in fact be 1st round picks this year. And they were all paid accordingly without crippling the franchises pocket book.. Now we use the real draft to further supplement this roster and the monster building continues.[/quote

Especially seeing as none of the FA signings are immune to competition, it will push these under the radar FA to win their spot. No stars, means no incumbents with the incoming FA. They all have to win their job.

[TKnight24]

Off Topic..... but still Colts related. Looks like our Rookie class is enjoying themselves.

@VickBallard: Cooling with my dog @The_Boss61 downtown.

Via Twitter

For those of you who don't know. That's Vick Ballard & Josh Chapman

[BronxColtNYC]

Before the start of free agency, I understood that the Colts were between $39M and $46M (depending on the source) under the cap. Then they went and signed several free agents, after which I read they were around $11M or so (also depending on the source). Jim Irsay, for some strange reason keeps saying he's "cash over cap". Anyway, the numbers indicated on the page you cite aren't consistent with other estimates. I understand the math you used in your explanation. I just saying that the conclusion of that math isn't consistent with what I've heard from other sources.

Grigson is front loading the base + prorated bonus. Each year the cap hit declines because he isn't paying out .huge bonuss and lowering bas salary, which allows the cap number to lower, freeing up space. 122.5 (total cap)-87(total number of base+pro bonus of all contract players)=free caps space. Then you have to add carry over cap space from previous year.

[BrentMc11]

I just wanted to say.....you know it is a good thread when I read every single post and I only replied the one time early.  Everybody did an awesome job of staying on a great topic and adding value to the subject.  This is what the forum is all about....Great job OP and everyone who joined in to make it great!!!    

 

Go       !!!

[GoColts8818]

Short hand version Grigson knows exactly what he's doing and those that over reacted to the large amounts of money can take a deep breath.

I will say the one difference to us having money this year vs. next year is that a good chunk of the money for next year might go towards re-signing our own which is something we didn't have to spend that much on this year.

[Hans Moleman]

Well done OP, I noticed the overall trend before, but didn't have the motivation to dig up all the numbers to prove the point lol. Props for a great post, and we're in a solid cap position moving forward even if our acquisitions don't pan out.

[Warhorse]

The thing with Grigson is that he goes after high motor guys who play with a chip on their shoulder. See Ballard, Allen. By signing backups, but throwing a bone their way, creates loyalty but also shows that we stuck our neck out for them by giving them a contact that may have been more than anticipated. Pagano has been a coach that players want to play for. Add the fact that Grigson shows he has faith in them, and it creates a perfect storm.

Walden, francois, Thomas, were backups who are chomping at the bit to prove themselves. cherilus, and even DHB and Landry are guys that play with a fire and are said to have a mean streak.

Nothing is for sure until week 1, but it's fun to speculate.

This^^^^^

 

The environment in the  locker room is a big deal to successful teams. I like the atmosphere they seem to be creating.

[BronxColtNYC]

This^^^^^

 

The environment in the  locker room is a big deal to successful teams. I like the atmosphere they seem to be creating.

Analysts have likened our Locker room to a high school team. It has that mix of passion for the game and passion for each other. Great atmosphere.

[BrentMc11]

Analysts have likened our Locker room to a high school team. It has that mix of passion for the game and passion for each other. Great atmosphere.

F A M I L Y!....refreshing!!!!!  

[ÅÐØNϧ 1]

I love this assessment. Using free agency as an extension of the draft. It's pretty clever. Based proven talent, each of our major FA signings would in fact be 1st round picks this year. And they were all paid accordingly without crippling the franchises pocket book.. Now we use the real draft to further supplement this roster and the monster building continues.[/quote

Especially seeing as none of the FA signings are immune to competition, it will push these under the radar FA to win their spot. No stars, means no incumbents with the incoming FA. They all have to win their job.

 

Nice job Bronx

 

Some of us old dogs hate change . I liked Bill Polian but Ryan Grigson has put his money where his mouth is , Going into his second season he has been true to his word " were building a monster "   He has scoured the NFL landscape & brought in players he feels will help the Colts reach there goal the SB . Many questioned & flat out hated our FA acquisitions & were very vocal & rabid in there condemnation , Some are still mad that the Colts let 18 walk & used that motivation to criticize Grigson , IMO your OP was very helpful & educational for me . I recognize your effort & thank you kind sir for your time & ability to coherently analyze & explain yourself in a manner that even I a simple caveman can understand .

 

This thread should be mandatory reading material for any Colts fan .