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How Grigson fooled us...


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Many posters here were very upset with the choices Grigson made during free agency this year. Average to above average players that many felt we overpaid for. I was initially upset with how we were blatantly going after mid level players when all the big fish were out there.

Everything changed when I started looking at the numbers more closely.

While most of us were bellyaching about the signings, Grigson was actually building cap room!!!!!!

However, then I started looking at how Grigson has structured the contracts of our new free agents and realized that he had not done the “standard” practiced of pushing much of the cap hits off into the future for a lower cap hit this year. Most of the contracts were pretty even.

Take for example OG Donald Thomas. He signed a 4-year, $14 million deal with $3.5 million guaranteed money which consisted of his $1 million signing bonus and his first year $2.5 million dollar salary. He will make $3.5 million dollar salaries for his 2nd, 3rd and 4th years of his contract so his cap hit will be:

Thomas; 2013 = $2,750,000, 2014 = $3,750,000, 2015 = $3,750,000, 2016 = $3,750,000

So, while we get a small cap relief in year one of the contract, we DO NOT get a balloon down the road that can be painful to accept.

The same was done for many of the other contracts:

Landry: 2013 = $5,750,000, 2014 = $5,750,000, 2015 = $6,250,000, 2016 = $6,250,000 Waldren: 2013 = $3,250,000, 2014 = $4,250,000 2015 = $4,250,000, 2016 = $4,250,000 Toler: 2013 = $4,333,333, 2015 = $5,333,333, 2016 = $5,333,333 RJF = Don’t know, contract info has not come out yet.

The only contract that Grigson did the “traditional” thing of pushing money into out years was that of Cherilus. Gosder signed a 5-year, $34.5 million salary with $15.5 million guaranteed money which consists of his $10 million signing bonus and his first year $5,500,000 dollar salary.

However, his 2nd year salary is only going to be $1,000,000 and his 3rd year salary will be $4,000,000 making those cap hits lower than normal to then push the rest of the money into years 4 and 5 (and allow an easy “break” point if he has not lived up to his contract status). His cap hits:

Cherilus: 2013 = $7,500,000, 2014 = $3,000,000, 2015 = $ 6,000,000, 2016 = $9,000,000, 2017 = $9,000,000

This is the only “escalating” salary that Grigson signed this year.

What this translates into is that the Colts have a pretty static salary cap situation for the next couple of years. At my best guess, for the 47 players currently under contract for the 2014-2015 NFL season, they are only using $86 million in cap space for 2014 leaving about $38 million of free space for next season.

Obviously, there are a few more things that need to come out of that 2014 number like; this year’s rookie 2nd year cap hits, next year’s rookie cap hits, and re-signing our own free agents (which we have a lot).

But, it just goes to show that we could easily re-sign some of our more valuable free agents ( out of: Bethea, Davis, Vinatieri, Donald Brown, McAfee, Angerer, Conner, McKinney, Moala) in addition to adding another player or two from other teams if needed.

Largest Ten 2013 Cap Hits: Mathis =………………..$ 10,750,000 Cherilus = ………………$ 7,500,000 Wayne = ………….…….$ 7,500,000 Bethea = ………………..$ 5,750,000 Landry = ………………..$ 5,750,000 Luck = ……………………$ 5,024,545 Jean-Francois = ……..$ 4,750,000 (estimated since we don’t have exact numbers yet) Redding = ……………..$ 4,391,667 Toler = ………………….$ 4,333,333 Satele = ………………..$ 3,866,667

Largest Ten 2014 Cap Hits: Mathis = ………………..$ 8,750,000 Wayne = ………………..$ 6,500,000 Luck = …………………….$ 6,029,454 Landry = …………………$ 5,750,000 Satele = ………………….$ 5,366,667 Toler = …………………..$ 5,333,333 Jean-Francois = ………$ 5,250,000 (estimated) Redding = ………………$ 4,391,667 Walden = ……………….$ 4,250,000 Thomas = ………………$ 3,750,000

So, right now, after signing a whole host of free agents this year, we only have 7 players scheduled to have a cap hit of more than $ 5 million in 2014. Sure, re-signing some of our own (Davis) will cost more but we are in a very friendly situation already for 2014 and will be in a position to spend to retain our own and add another piece or three next year as required.

Discuss...

Decent write up good info,will disagree with one thing,wouldnt say most of us were upset,allthough some were,I and a lot of others liked the talent he was bringing in,and fully understood what he was doing.His idea was to plug as many holes as possible with people who may be a little under the radar ,but fit this system with possible high returns,Toler being a prime example,this guy can play,but he was in Arizona not really in the limelight so to speak,bottom line you make a great point Grigson is a smart cookie,lets see what genius he can pull off in the draft

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Decent write up good info,will disagree with one thing,wouldnt say most of us were upset,allthough some were,I and a lot of others liked the talent he was bringing in,and fully understood what he was doing.His idea was to plug as many holes as possible with people who may be a little under the radar ,but fit this system with possible high returns,Toler being a prime example,this guy can play,but he was in Arizona not really in the limelight so to speak,bottom line you make a great point Grigson is a smart cookie,lets see what genius he can pull off in the draft

I was one of them. I couldn't understand how he could get under the radar players with so many big fish, in the largest free agency grab in history. I'm glad some kept level heads. After doing research, I realized how wrong I was.

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Thanks for the analysis. Good stuff!

I'm anxious to see how this free agent crop plays out for a different reason, though.

Historically, activity in free agency has a high correlation to losing in the NFL, presumably because of lack of continuity. If you look at the teams with the most wins over the last decade+, they consistently have had the least activity in free agency. The opposite is also true... the most FA activity is highly correlated to losing. This is FACT.

For years, though, I've speculated that continuity may only be part of the problem. I think the typical approach teams take, and the type of player coveted, also play an enormous role in the efficacy of free agency.

From the team angle, the idea that one big name player, one large upgrade at a single position, can get a team over the hump... just seems erroneous to me. And from an individual player perspective, I've always thought it takes an extraordinarily rare person to be able to get an out of this world contract, and then fight to earn it. Most would respond better to have the carrot just out of reach.

I don't recall a team that has so consciously endeavored to go after free agents who have shown talent, but are still a long way from proving their full worth. Not a single new player would have looked at their new contract and said "I've arrived!", and not a single one can think they can just coast from here.

The Colts also look like they've determined to make modest upgrades at many different positions, and in a team sport, that makes sense to me. Consistent talent across the board, not spikes of talent in a field of mediocrity.

I'm intrigued to see if this different approach to free agency can lead to better results. As a die-hard, lifelong Colts fan, I hope so.

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Thanks for the analysis. Good stuff!

I'm anxious to see how this free agent crop plays out for a different reason, though.

Historically, activity in free agency has a high correlation to losing in the NFL, presumably because of lack of continuity. If you look at the teams with the most wins over the last decade+, they consistently have had the least activity in free agency. The opposite is also true... the most FA activity is highly correlated to losing. This is FACT.

For years, though, I've speculated that continuity may only be part of the problem. I think the typical approach teams take, and the type of player coveted, also play an enormous role in the efficacy of free agency.

From the team angle, the idea that one big name player, one large upgrade at a single position, can get a team over the hump... just seems erroneous to me. And from an individual player perspective, I've always thought it takes an extraordinarily rare person to be able to get an out of this world contract, and then fight to earn it. Most would respond better to have the carrot just out of reach.

I don't recall a team that has so consciously endeavored to go after free agents who have shown talent, but are still a long way from proving their full worth. Not a single new player would have looked at their new contract and said "I've arrived!", and not a single one can think they can just coast from here.

The Colts also look like they've determined to make modest upgrades at many different positions, and in a team sport, that makes sense to me. Consistent talent across the board, not spikes of talent in a field of mediocrity.

I'm intrigued to see if this different approach to free agency can lead to better results. As a die-hard, lifelong Colts fan, I hope so.

That's the thing about Pagano and even Grigson if someone thinks they can coast they wont be here,you don't perform there will be someone to replace you,and your days are probably numbered with this franchise

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That's the thing about Pagano and even Grigson if someone thinks they can coast they wont be here,you don't perform there will be someone to replace you,and your days are probably numbered with this franchise

The thing with Grigson is that he goes after high motor guys who play with a chip on their shoulder. See Ballard, Allen. By signing backups, but throwing a bone their way, creates loyalty but also shows that we stuck our neck out for them by giving them a contact that may have been more than anticipated. Pagano has been a coach that players want to play for. Add the fact that Grigson shows he has faith in them, and it creates a perfect storm.

Walden, francois, Thomas, were backups who are chomping at the bit to prove themselves. cherilus, and even DHB and Landry are guys that play with a fire and are said to have a mean streak.

Nothing is for sure until week 1, but it's fun to speculate.

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This thread has humbled many us who were anti-Grigson, or at least we started that way after what happened to P.M.. The numbers seem to be spot on, and based on the numbers you've submitted, we DO seem to be headed in the right direction. What i also see is that these players will come to understand how awesome a talent evaluator Grigson is, and will be, and won't be able to lobby thru the media for a larger contract. [ Not based on the structure of the contract, but for the simple reason that this GM can find a guy just as good, younger than they are, and will play as he says from "snap to whistle", for less money than they are demanding for their "services" ].....So Grigson, with Pagano's help, goes into the off-season workouts, creates competition, and get players focusing on winning a starting job, and not on dead presidents.....Genius...(well, good play calling none the less...LOL)

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With all due respect, none of this screams polian. Very anti polian. But that's neither here nor there Grigson is future. Polian is past. We should celebrate the past but Mr. Grigson deserves credit for our present and future.

 

I agree both with this and what you've said above.  I've mentioned a little less directly that the contracts being handed out are not only reasonable, but they are mostly contracts that we can step away from after a year or two with little net cap impact.

 

I am sure that a signing or two from this offseason may not pan out, but all of them are reasonably easy to move on from.  And all of them are guys that deserve a shot on a well coached team.  The beautiful thing is this team went 11-5 last season, and we have improved in a lot of areas this off season.

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This thread has humbled many us who were anti-Grigson, or at least we started that way after what happened to P.M.. The numbers seem to be spot on, and based on the numbers you've submitted, we DO seem to be headed in the right direction. What i also see is that these players will come to understand how awesome a talent evaluator Grigson is, and will be, and won't be able to lobby thru the media for a larger contract. [ Not based on the structure of the contract, but for the simple reason that this GM can find a guy just as good, younger than they are, and will play as he says from "snap to whistle", for less money than they are demanding for their "services" ].....

Perfectly said. He walked the walk by choosing under the radar guys. What some people don't understand is that outside of Wayne and Mathis, we are one of the youngest teams in football, and got even younger this off-season, but we picked up 9 veterans?

My head is spinning. Lol

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I agree both with this and what you've said above.  I've mentioned a little less directly that the contracts being handed out are not only reasonable, but they are mostly contracts that we can step away from after a year or two with little net cap impact.

 

I am sure that a signing or two from this offseason may not pan out, but all of them are reasonably easy to move on from.  And all of them are guys that deserve a shot on a well coached team.  The beautiful thing is this team went 11-5 last season, and we have improved in a lot of areas this off season.

Plus 40 mil next season.

Nobody is expecting every Grigson pickup to turn into a pro bowler. Reality is that some won't work out, but the way it's structured let's us walk away unscathed. Look at what's happening to the raiders right now. They are carrying so much dead money, it set the franchise back another 5 year's, yet we were in same situation. ThAT could've been us.

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The thing with Grigson is that he goes after high motor guys who play with a chip on their shoulder. See Ballard, Allen. By signing backups, but throwing a bone their way, creates loyalty but also shows that we stuck our neck out for them by giving them a contact that may have been more than anticipated. Pagano has been a coach that players want to play for. Add the fact that Grigson shows he has faith in them, and it creates a perfect storm.

Walden, francois, Thomas, were backups who are chomping at the bit to prove themselves. cherilus, and even DHB and Landry are guys that play with a fire and are said to have a mean streak.

Nothing is for sure until week 1, but it's fun to speculate.

Yeah, I've been seeing it as he paid these guys just enough to have them feel very valued, but also left them feeling like they have a lot left to prove.
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Perfectly said. He walked the walk by choosing under the radar guys. What some people don't understand is that outside of Wayne and Mathis, we are one of the youngest teams in football, and got even younger this off-season, but we picked up 9 veterans?

My head is spinning. Lol

9 veterans?.....Like you said, we've gotten younger.  Our "sons" can't play all day. Big brothers have to be dad sometimes, and show'em how it's done....lol

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IMO to put a good product on the field with a chance to win a SB,this is how your gonna have to do business,the days of the huge contracts are over except for QBs if you want to stay in the position to succeed.The longer you go paying monster contracts the deeper you dig the hole

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Yeah, I've been seeing it as he paid these guys just enough to have them feel very valued, but also left them feeling like they have a lot left to prove.

Also take into account that Grigson filled nearly every position in FA, which allows him to draft BPA. The new FA don't make enough to be immune from competition. We bring in 6 rookies to push veterans. Say we bring in a Wr, CB, SS, DE, OLB, OG, RT, now you have younger, hungry guys that will push these veterans.

Grigson is a chessmaster.

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The beauty of the situation is that we only have 6 players that make a base of 5mil or more. That's how we have a near complete team, but aren't breaking the bank.

Really good stuff!

Is that Hillbilly Jim? Old school.

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Great job Bronx!

 

Grigson has wisely avoided some pretty common salary cap pitfalls and has us on a path to a solid and balanced 53-man roster.

Grigson had this all planned. If you look at Mathis/Wayne contracts, they both drop down in 2014. Link.

http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Colts&Year=2014

Grigson had this planned from day 1 on the job. None of this is a surprise to him.

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The thing with Grigson is that he goes after high motor guys who play with a chip on their shoulder. See Ballard, Allen. By signing backups, but throwing a bone their way, creates loyalty but also shows that we stuck our neck out for them by giving them a contact that may have been more than anticipated. Pagano has been a coach that players want to play for. Add the fact that Grigson shows he has faith in them, and it creates a perfect storm.

Walden, francois, Thomas, were backups who are chomping at the bit to prove themselves. cherilus, and even DHB and Landry are guys that play with a fire and are said to have a mean streak.

Nothing is for sure until week 1, but it's fun to speculate.

 

That is a GREAT post.

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I was happy with every signing we made in FA. Only one I didn't like was the DHB one. And like I said if he comes into Indy & really gets his hands right & ends up being a steal, I'll admit I was wrong.

But other than that, I'm loving what Grigson has done & is still doing for this franchise

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Grigson had this all planned. If you look at Mathis/Wayne contracts, they both drop down in 2014. Link.http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Colts&Year=2014

Grigson had this planned from day 1 on the job. None of this is a surprise to him.

Just wanted to say that this was one of the best analyses of the payroll that I have read. It's something that the so called professional reporters should have put out. I'd love to hear what one of the writers for the Indy Star would say about it.

I'll take your word for the veracity of the numbers. Great stuff!

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Bronx, as I pointed out also, most of those contract's are structured so that the player is easily cut after this season with very little dead money.  Only Cherlius and I think Landry can't be cut after this season to free up a bunch of cap room.

 

A lot of the guaranteed money in those contracts just guarantee's the first year's salary.  This is meaningless because why would we sign them just to cut them in camp???

 

Other then that, players who disappoint or are no longer useful to us are easily cut.  

 

He's keeping the cap situation flexible.  

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Just wanted to say that this was one of the best analyses of the payroll that I have read. It's something that the so called professional reporters should have put out. I'd love to hear what one of the writers for the Indy Star would say about it.

I'll take your word for the veracity of the numbers. Great stuff!

Reporters go for what's sexy. Aaron Rodgers making 25 mil is the sexy story. Grigson defying conventional wisdom and manipulating the cap to set the franchise up for the next 10 years isn't sexy..snap judgements and quick analysis dominates our news.cycle. its rare for somebody to sit down and look at the numbers. I'm no MIT math graduate, I'm just a guy who looked at the hard numbers and saw a pattern.

I love PM and the polians. I love what they did for our franchise. I was initially upset with the Grigson signing, only because what he was replacing. Learn his tactics, techniques, strategies, and you'll see he is in a league of his own.

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Irsay deserves a pinned post just like Manning got for all the crap this board through at him for getting rid of Polian and not resigning PM.  Irsay looks like a genius right now.

I hope all the people who were flipping out feel foolish now. I wasn't worried.

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Bronx, as I pointed out also, most of those contract's are structured so that the player is easily cut after this season with very little dead money.  Only Cherlius and I think Landry can't be cut after this season to free up a bunch of cap room.

 

A lot of the guaranteed money in those contracts just guarantee's the first year's salary.  This is meaningless because why would we sign them just to cut them in camp???

 

Other then that, players who disappoint or are no longer useful to us are easily cut.  

 

He's keeping the cap situation flexible.  

You're correct. Let's break it down. Here's the 2014 cap hit for our FA pickups.

http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Colts&Year=2014

The only thing you need to look at is the dead money hit. That means if we cut him. What's our cap penalty?

RJF:Let's look at RJF first. His dead cap is $1,066,668. That's is fairly cheap. (For reference, we are still carrying 5 mil in Gary brackett's dead cap.

Toler: dead cap is $666,667 just above 500k.

Thomas: dead cap is $750,000

Cherilus, Landry, Walden: Now the last 3 you are right about cherilus has an 8 mil. Landry 5.2 mil. Walden 4.75 mil but you see those numbers drastically reduce in 2015.

Cherilus goes down to 6. Landry to 3 mil

And WALDEN to 500k. So you are we can essentially cut everyone except for Landry and cherilus and not blink an.eye.

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In accordance with signing under the radar players, the Colts are receiving little media attention on the positive side.  What little attention is paid is largely negative.  As the OP suggests, the media hasn't looked under the hood at what is really going because the only news that will sell is some kind of declaration about who won or lost the free agency period.  Not much fun to write about a Colts approach that was fiscally responsible and unable to further analyze about quality until the season is at least halfway thru.

 

I'd simplify Grigson's approach to this free agency period as an extension of the draft - only with some data of actual NFL performance to justify his assessments.  He identified young players who he thinks have 1st round talent and measurables who have largely been in limited roles or had circumstances that kept them under the radar.  He proceeded to pay them like 1st round picks, only without the contract guarantees.  He paid them for the way he thinks they will play in our system, just like is true of a 1st round pick.  It is a different approach than most teams can claim they've used in free agency, so it isn't fully understood by the masses.  He only paid 2 players in line with the classic big name model, Cherilus and Landry, which is awarding contracts based solely on the market (or over market) for what they have already accomplished.  The other contracts were a compromise - more years for the Colts and slightly elevated contract average for the player, should the player be fortunate enough to play to the level to justify receiving it.

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You're correct. Let's break it down. Here's the 2014 cap hit for our FA pickups.

http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Colts&Year=2014

The only thing you need to look at is the dead money hit. That means if we cut him. What's our cap penalty?

RJF:Let's look at RJF first. His dead cap is $1,066,668. That's is fairly cheap. (For reference, we are still carrying 5 mil in Gary brackett's dead cap.

Toler: dead cap is $666,667 just above 500k.

Thomas: dead cap is $750,000

Cherilus, Landry, Walden: Now the last 3 you are right about cherilus has an 8 mil. Landry 5.2 mil. Walden 4.75 mil but you see those numbers drastically reduce in 2015.

Cherilus goes down to 6. Landry to 3 mil

And WALDEN to 500k. So you are we can essentially cut everyone except for Landry and cherilus and not blink an.eye.

 

Walden it actually is even better then Overthecap has it.

 

According to Sportrac, Walden's 2nd year salary only becomes guaranteed after the 5th day of the 2014 league year.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/erik-walden/

 

So if he sucks this year we can actually cut him before that day for only $750,000 in dead money.  

 

Only Cherilus and Landry are we invested in them for more then 1 year.  

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Walden it actually is even better then Overthecap has it.

 

According to Sportrac, Walden's 2nd year salary only becomes guaranteed after the 5th day of the 2014 league year.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/erik-walden/

 

So if he sucks this year we can actually cut him before that day for only $750,000 in dead money.  

 

Only Cherilus and Landry are we invested in them for more then 1 year.  

Dead money equates to salary cap hits after salary for the year is guaranteed. In most cases, you can release a player before the new year begins and not be on the hook for any money. Unless it otherwise states in the contract. Once league year starts, all players under.contract are guaranteed their salary.

Dead money ensues once a player is cut with a guaranteed salary. What sport trac had was a cap penalty for releasing player.

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In accordance with signing under the radar players, the Colts are receiving little media attention on the positive side.  What little attention is paid is largely negative.  As the OP suggests, the media hasn't looked under the hood at what is really going because the only news that will sell is some kind of declaration about who won or lost the free agency period.  Not much fun to write about a Colts approach that was fiscally responsible and unable to further analyze about quality until the season is at least halfway thru.

 

I'd simplify Grigson's approach to this free agency period as an extension of the draft - only with some data of actual NFL performance to justify his assessments.  He identified young players who he thinks have 1st round talent and measurables who have largely been in limited roles or had circumstances that kept them under the radar.  He proceeded to pay them like 1st round picks, only without the contract guarantees.  He paid them for the way he thinks they will play in our system, just like is true of a 1st round pick.  It is a different approach than most teams can claim they've used in free agency, so it isn't fully understood by the masses.  He only paid 2 players in line with the classic big name model, Cherilus and Landry, which is awarding contracts based solely on the market (or over market) for what they have already accomplished.  The other contracts were a compromise - more years for the Colts and slightly elevated contract average for the player, should the player be fortunate enough to play to the level to justify receiving it.

Couldn't have said it better.

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Keep analyzing, keep questioning, never take anything at face value. Determine your own stance by researching it yourself.

 

And compare.  Folks can see how Grigs had to play this year to accomplish next year.

 

http://www.overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Colts&Year=2013

 

http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Colts&Year=2014

 

And we all know how m,uch Grigs did with so little last year because the huge amount of dead money from jettisoned players in the reload.

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And compare.  Folks can see how Grigs had to play this year to accomplish next year.

 

http://www.overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Colts&Year=2013

 

http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Colts&Year=2014

 

And we all know how m,uch Grigs did with so little last year because the huge amount of dead money from jettisoned players in the reload.

Cap hit goes down on most players as years progress. Opens space.

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Many posters here were very upset with the choices Grigson made during free agency this year. Average to above average players that many felt we overpaid for. I was initially upset with how we were blatantly going after mid level players when all the big fish were out there.

Everything changed when I started looking at the numbers more closely.

While most of us were bellyaching about the signings, Grigson was actually building cap room!!!!!!

However, then I started looking at how Grigson has structured the contracts of our new free agents and realized that he had not done the “standard” practiced of pushing much of the cap hits off into the future for a lower cap hit this year. Most of the contracts were pretty even.

Take for example OG Donald Thomas. He signed a 4-year, $14 million deal with $3.5 million guaranteed money which consisted of his $1 million signing bonus and his first year $2.5 million dollar salary. He will make $3.5 million dollar salaries for his 2nd, 3rd and 4th years of his contract so his cap hit will be:

Thomas; 2013 = $2,750,000, 2014 = $3,750,000, 2015 = $3,750,000, 2016 = $3,750,000

So, while we get a small cap relief in year one of the contract, we DO NOT get a balloon down the road that can be painful to accept.

The same was done for many of the other contracts:

Landry: 2013 = $5,750,000, 2014 = $5,750,000, 2015 = $6,250,000, 2016 = $6,250,000 Waldren: 2013 = $3,250,000, 2014 = $4,250,000 2015 = $4,250,000, 2016 = $4,250,000 Toler: 2013 = $4,333,333, 2015 = $5,333,333, 2016 = $5,333,333 RJF = Don’t know, contract info has not come out yet.

The only contract that Grigson did the “traditional” thing of pushing money into out years was that of Cherilus. Gosder signed a 5-year, $34.5 million salary with $15.5 million guaranteed money which consists of his $10 million signing bonus and his first year $5,500,000 dollar salary.

However, his 2nd year salary is only going to be $1,000,000 and his 3rd year salary will be $4,000,000 making those cap hits lower than normal to then push the rest of the money into years 4 and 5 (and allow an easy “break” point if he has not lived up to his contract status). His cap hits:

Cherilus: 2013 = $7,500,000, 2014 = $3,000,000, 2015 = $ 6,000,000, 2016 = $9,000,000, 2017 = $9,000,000

This is the only “escalating” salary that Grigson signed this year.

What this translates into is that the Colts have a pretty static salary cap situation for the next couple of years. At my best guess, for the 47 players currently under contract for the 2014-2015 NFL season, they are only using $86 million in cap space for 2014 leaving about $38 million of free space for next season.

Obviously, there are a few more things that need to come out of that 2014 number like; this year’s rookie 2nd year cap hits, next year’s rookie cap hits, and re-signing our own free agents (which we have a lot).

But, it just goes to show that we could easily re-sign some of our more valuable free agents ( out of: Bethea, Davis, Vinatieri, Donald Brown, McAfee, Angerer, Conner, McKinney, Moala) in addition to adding another player or two from other teams if needed.

Largest Ten 2013 Cap Hits: Mathis =………………..$ 10,750,000 Cherilus = ………………$ 7,500,000 Wayne = ………….…….$ 7,500,000 Bethea = ………………..$ 5,750,000 Landry = ………………..$ 5,750,000 Luck = ……………………$ 5,024,545 Jean-Francois = ……..$ 4,750,000 (estimated since we don’t have exact numbers yet) Redding = ……………..$ 4,391,667 Toler = ………………….$ 4,333,333 Satele = ………………..$ 3,866,667

Largest Ten 2014 Cap Hits: Mathis = ………………..$ 8,750,000 Wayne = ………………..$ 6,500,000 Luck = …………………….$ 6,029,454 Landry = …………………$ 5,750,000 Satele = ………………….$ 5,366,667 Toler = …………………..$ 5,333,333 Jean-Francois = ………$ 5,250,000 (estimated) Redding = ………………$ 4,391,667 Walden = ……………….$ 4,250,000 Thomas = ………………$ 3,750,000

So, right now, after signing a whole host of free agents this year, we only have 7 players scheduled to have a cap hit of more than $ 5 million in 2014. Sure, re-signing some of our own (Davis) will cost more but we are in a very friendly situation already for 2014 and will be in a position to spend to retain our own and add another piece or three next year as required.

Discuss...

 

thats almost polian polar opposite seemed like he back loaded most of the contracts and screwed us with all that dead cap space in grigson's first year appears he is trying to make it workable for us from here on out Grigson has done nothing but impress me so far

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thats almost polian polar opposite seemed like he back loaded most of the contracts and screwed us with all that dead cap space in grigson's first year appears he is trying to make it workable for us from here on out Grigson has done nothing but impress me so far

 

Let's not be quick to compare how Polian handled the cap for a mature contender with how Grigson handles the cap during the building phase. Grigson will have much tougher choices to make in future years when he has multiple starters hitting free agency from teams perennially in contention.  All mature contenders are making trade-offs with future cap implications to make it work in the current year.  See Steelers, Ravens, etc.  Those GM's are credited as among the leagues best, yet both entered this off season with horrible cap situations.

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As OP pointed out, Grigson should definitely get more credit than he does for the way he's handled the offseason. I know it was tough to swallow some of the names that were brought in (not for lack of tanent by any means, simply because there were bigger "woppers" out there) but the man is brilliant for not setting the club back financially in the future. That is why HE is the GM and the reigning Executive of the Year, and I play Madden haha

 

Great work OP! :thmup:

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Let's not be quick to compare how Polian handled the cap for a mature contender with how Grigson handles the cap during the building phase. Grigson will have much tougher choices to make in future years when he has multiple starters hitting free agency from teams perennially in contention.  All mature contenders are making trade-offs with future cap implications to make it work in the current year.  See Steelers, Ravens, etc.  Those GM's are credited as among the leagues best, yet both entered this off season with horrible cap situations.

While I agree with part of what you said, the major difference is that Steelers ans ravens backloaded their contracts. Grigson is using a static cap. Its the job of the GM to bring in younger talent. Grigson has. Steelers and ravens you could argue haven't. Grigsons static cap strategy will gain is 40 mil cap next off-season and a similar numbers in 2015. Read @superman post to et an idea of how we will be able to pay luck, yet keep our veteran talent. I respect your opinion.

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Perhaps I'm responding to the title of the thread about "how Grigson fooled us".....

 

But I don't think he fooled us at all....

 

He did exactly what he said he'd do over and over and over again.

 

He said he would NOT chase names.    He did not give out a single Salary Cap crushing contract.

 

He chose guys he believes fit the system,  and above all,  play hard.

 

There are people here who continue to be disappointed with the Colts' FA.     Those people simply either did pay attention to what Grigson said,  or didn't believe him.

 

What can I tell you.....?

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Perhaps I'm responding to the title of the thread about "how Grigson fooled us".....

ButI don't think he fooled us at all....

He did exactly what he said he'd do over and over and over again.

He said he would NOT chase names. He did not give out a single Salary Cap crushing contract.

He chose guys he believes fit the system, and above all, play hard.

There are people here who continue to be disappointed with the Colts' FA. Those people simply either did pay attention to what Grigson said, or didn't believe him.

What can I tell you.....?

The thread title was sarcastic. Sorry, I should've made it more obvious. The thread title was written that way for all the exact reasons you've stated. I did for all the posters who hated on Grigson and now that his plan is working, they claim they were fooled.
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