How Grigson fooled us...

[BronxColtNYC]

Many posters here were very upset with the choices Grigson made during free agency this year. Average to above average players that many felt we overpaid for. I was initially upset with how we were blatantly going after mid level players when all the big fish were out there.

Everything changed when I started looking at the numbers more closely.

While most of us were bellyaching about the signings, Grigson was actually building cap room!!!!!!

However, then I started looking at how Grigson has structured the contracts of our new free agents and realized that he had not done the “standard” practiced of pushing much of the cap hits off into the future for a lower cap hit this year. Most of the contracts were pretty even.

Take for example OG Donald Thomas. He signed a 4-year, $14 million deal with $3.5 million guaranteed money which consisted of his $1 million signing bonus and his first year $2.5 million dollar salary. He will make $3.5 million dollar salaries for his 2nd, 3rd and 4th years of his contract so his cap hit will be:

Thomas; 2013 = $2,750,000, 2014 = $3,750,000, 2015 = $3,750,000, 2016 = $3,750,000

So, while we get a small cap relief in year one of the contract, we DO NOT get a balloon down the road that can be painful to accept.

The same was done for many of the other contracts:

Landry: 2013 = $5,750,000, 2014 = $5,750,000, 2015 = $6,250,000, 2016 = $6,250,000 Waldren: 2013 = $3,250,000, 2014 = $4,250,000 2015 = $4,250,000, 2016 = $4,250,000 Toler: 2013 = $4,333,333, 2015 = $5,333,333, 2016 = $5,333,333 RJF = Don’t know, contract info has not come out yet.

The only contract that Grigson did the “traditional” thing of pushing money into out years was that of Cherilus. Gosder signed a 5-year, $34.5 million salary with $15.5 million guaranteed money which consists of his $10 million signing bonus and his first year $5,500,000 dollar salary.

However, his 2nd year salary is only going to be $1,000,000 and his 3rd year salary will be $4,000,000 making those cap hits lower than normal to then push the rest of the money into years 4 and 5 (and allow an easy “break” point if he has not lived up to his contract status). His cap hits:

Cherilus: 2013 = $7,500,000, 2014 = $3,000,000, 2015 = $ 6,000,000, 2016 = $9,000,000, 2017 = $9,000,000

This is the only “escalating” salary that Grigson signed this year.

What this translates into is that the Colts have a pretty static salary cap situation for the next couple of years. At my best guess, for the 47 players currently under contract for the 2014-2015 NFL season, they are only using $86 million in cap space for 2014 leaving about $38 million of free space for next season.

Obviously, there are a few more things that need to come out of that 2014 number like; this year’s rookie 2nd year cap hits, next year’s rookie cap hits, and re-signing our own free agents (which we have a lot).

But, it just goes to show that we could easily re-sign some of our more valuable free agents ( out of: Bethea, Davis, Vinatieri, Donald Brown, McAfee, Angerer, Conner, McKinney, Moala) in addition to adding another player or two from other teams if needed.

Largest Ten 2013 Cap Hits: Mathis =………………..$ 10,750,000 Cherilus = ………………$ 7,500,000 Wayne = ………….…….$ 7,500,000 Bethea = ………………..$ 5,750,000 Landry = ………………..$ 5,750,000 Luck = ……………………$ 5,024,545 Jean-Francois = ……..$ 4,750,000 (estimated since we don’t have exact numbers yet) Redding = ……………..$ 4,391,667 Toler = ………………….$ 4,333,333 Satele = ………………..$ 3,866,667

Largest Ten 2014 Cap Hits: Mathis = ………………..$ 8,750,000 Wayne = ………………..$ 6,500,000 Luck = …………………….$ 6,029,454 Landry = …………………$ 5,750,000 Satele = ………………….$ 5,366,667 Toler = …………………..$ 5,333,333 Jean-Francois = ………$ 5,250,000 (estimated) Redding = ………………$ 4,391,667 Walden = ……………….$ 4,250,000 Thomas = ………………$ 3,750,000

So, right now, after signing a whole host of free agents this year, we only have 7 players scheduled to have a cap hit of more than $ 5 million in 2014. Sure, re-signing some of our own (Davis) will cost more but we are in a very friendly situation already for 2014 and will be in a position to spend to retain our own and add another piece or three next year as required.

Discuss...

[TKnight24]

Yeah..... you lost me. I suck at math

[BronxColtNYC]

Yeah..... you lost me. I suck at math

Grigson, with the signings, set the team up for another 40 million cap space off-season. That's the gist.

[Buck Showalter]

Nice breakdown...

Good post & props on the Hillbilly Luck avatar, that's awesome...

[Gavin]

I dont have a problem with any of the contracts really although 22 mill for Francois sounds pricey, when I watched him on Rewind he just did not look that impressive or not 5.5 average impressive

[BronxColtNYC]

I dont have a problem with any of the contracts really although 22 mill for Francois sounds pricey, when I watched him on Rewind he just did not look that impressive or not 5.5 average impressive

He's not a pressure guy, but a run stuffer. In a lot of his tape, you see him effective on running downs. That's why we still need a pass rushing end.

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=DaG7mQryffc&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DDaG7mQryffc

[Superman]

Very good work.

[Colts_Fan12]

Even out of the FA we could lose next year the only ones I want are Davis and McAfee

[BronxColtNYC]

Even out of the FA we could lose next year the only ones I want are Davis and McAfee

Well then guess what? We have another 40 mil to go shopping with.

[Colts_Fan12]

Well then guess what? We have another 40 mil to go shopping with.

Sounds great to me

[Superman]

Well then guess what? We have another 40 mil to go shopping with.

 

That's another thing. If we keep ending the year with a few million to roll over, we could wind up with an extra $15-20m in cap space once it's time to redo Luck's contract (when the cap is expected to go up anyway). Just as an example, consider how we could structure a contract with the same overall numbers as Joe Flacco, six years, $120.6m, if we have a ton of cap space the year the deal is done:

 

Rather than putting all the bonus in a signing bonus, which is paid out up front but amortized evenly over the life of the contract, we could offer Luck a split bonus, part signing bonus and part roster bonus. A roster bonus only hits the cap in the year it's paid out. Flacco got a $29m signing bonus, which is going to be a $5.8m hold on the cap every year of the contract. You could instead do a $30m bonus, with $15m as a signing bonus and another $15m as a roster bonus (I'm not sure how big a roster bonus can be, but I've seen as much as $9m, so I'm not sure there is a limit). Then the signing bonus only hits the cap each year for $2.5m. If the base salary in Year 1 is $1m, like Flacco's, you wind up with a Year 1 cap hit of $18.5m. Then you can structure the remaining base salaries relatively evenly over the remaining years of the contract, with triggered guarantees. That way, rather than having significantly accelerating cap numbers in later years (Flacco's first three years average about $12m, and the last three years average about $28m), you have an evenly apportioned contract, and you can maintain cap space.

 

Even if Luck's deal was six years, $150m, with a $40m bonus and $70m "guaranteed" (all of which sounds ridiculous right now, but might not in three years), we could still use a similar structure to avoid big prorated bonus and accelerating cap hits.

 

I like the angle you took with the OP. It highlights how Grigson's approach will basically provide us with a cap number that doesn't accelerate year after year. So, just like we had a strong amount of cap space this season, we ought to have a strong amount next season, and so on. The only thing that will significantly affect that continual cap space is when a player gets a significant raise, like Luck eventually will, or like Davis likely will. Very smart planning, I think.

[BronxColtNYC]

That's another thing. If we keep ending the year with a few million to roll over, we could wind up with an extra $15-20m in cap space once it's time to redo Luck's contract (when the cap is expected to go up anyway). Just as an example, consider how we could structure a contract with the same overall numbers as Joe Flacco, six years, $120.6m, if we have a ton of cap space the year the deal is done:

 

Rather than putting all the bonus in a signing bonus, which is paid out up front but amortized evenly over the life of the contract, we could offer Luck a split bonus, part signing bonus and part roster bonus. A roster bonus only hits the cap in the year it's paid out. Flacco got a $29m signing bonus, which is going to be a $5.8m hold on the cap every year of the contract. You could instead do a $30m bonus, with $15m as a signing bonus and another $15m as a roster bonus (I'm not sure how big a roster bonus can be, but I've seen as much as $9m, so I'm not sure there is a limit). Then the signing bonus only hits the cap each year for $2.5m. If the base salary in Year 1 is $1m, like Flacco's, you wind up with a Year 1 cap hit of $18.5m. Then you can structure the remaining base salaries relatively evenly over the remaining years of the contract, with triggered guarantees. That way, rather than having significantly accelerating cap numbers in later years (Flacco's first three years average about $12m, and the last three years average about $28m), you have an evenly apportioned contract, and you can maintain cap space.

 

Even if Luck's deal was six years, $150m, with a $40m bonus and $70m "guaranteed" (all of which sounds ridiculous right now, but might not in three years), we could still use a similar structure to avoid big prorated bonus and accelerating cap hits.

 

I like the angle you took with the OP. It highlights how Grigson's approach will basically provide us with a cap number that doesn't accelerate year after year. So, just like we had a strong amount of cap space this season, we ought to have a strong amount next season, and so on. The only thing that will significantly affect that continual cap space is when a player gets a significant raise, like Luck eventually will, or like Davis likely will. Very smart planning, I think.

@superman you got it. Grigson learned from the hot mess that was the eagles dream team (rosemans fault) none of these figures include carry over space. Grigson has shown himself to be a master of the cap, and has proven that with these signings. I'm ready, with the static cap that Grigson has in place, to call all of these signings low risk high reward.

Grigson is unlike many GM's because he is planning for the future.

Example: look at the ravens? All of their.contracts were back heavy which caused them to lose half their team. Grigson knows this. With static cap, you don't run into dead cap/over cap situations.

This precisely points to Luck's re-signing. We can pay him, yet keep all of our starters. Boom. Done. Grigson is a smart money manager.

It's safe to say maybe he targeted a lot of the players because negotiation was made quick and club friendly. Win win.

We are set up nicely for the next 10 years.

[Coltscodeblue]

This is a great thread and very informative, keep it up fella's :}

 

I was out of "Likes" so just want to add I "Like" the last BronxColtNYC posting above this one!!!!!

[BronxColtNYC]

It's amazing how zero analysts have picked up on this. Grigson is laughing all the way to the bank.

[smittywerb]

I'm glad someone posted this. A lot of people just look at the numbers, divide the years into the total and say "wth grigson! We overpaid!".

We are setting ourselves up to har a comfortable cap. Like the op said, we can resign and buy for years to come. And the BEST thing is if the player doesn't perform, we can cut him without any penalties!

[Coltscodeblue]

For sure BronxColtNYC, I would like to give you another like but fresh out, like restrictions stink, You do have a great avatar :}LOL

 

Off to bed, night night.....

[BronxColtNYC]

For sure BronxColtNYC, I would like to give you another like but fresh out, like restrictions stink, You do have a great avatar :}LOL

 

Off to bed, night night.....

Thanks!

[BronxColtNYC]

I'm glad someone posted this. A lot of people just look at the numbers, divide the years into the total and say "wth grigson! We overpaid!".

We are setting ourselves up to har a comfortable cap. Like the op said, we can resign and buy for years to come. And the BEST thing is if the player doesn't perform, we can cut him without any penalties!

Nailed it. No dead cap. Another great point is why also do you think Grigson signed 4 and 5 year deals?Luck's contract is up in 2

3. We pay luck and keep our starters. I'm starting to believe Grigson is jigsaw from the saw movies. A brilliant mind.

[BronxColtNYC]

Correction, luck has 3 years left.

[Colts_Fan12]

Nailed it. No dead cap. Another great point is why also do you think Grigson signed 4 and 5 year deals?Luck's contract is up in 2

3. We pay luck and keep our starters. I'm starting to believe Grigson is jigsaw from the saw movies. A brilliant mind.

Glad he is our GM

[BronxColtNYC]

Glad he is our GM

We were 3 seconds away from having McKenzie.

[Colts_Fan12]

We were 3 seconds away from having McKenzie.

He may not be that bad but is sure not Grigson

[SteelCityColt]

Sorry cut out most of this to make the thread a bit more user friendly!

So, right now, after signing a whole host of free agents this year, we only have 7 players scheduled to have a cap hit of more than $ 5 million in 2014. Sure, re-signing some of our own (Davis) will cost more but we are in a very friendly situation already for 2014 and will be in a position to spend to retain our own and add another piece or three next year as required.

Discuss...

 

Great work on breaking this down, it's comforting to realise the long term planning that's going on in the FO. Sounds obvious now but historically, such as in Philly, the win now mentality with no foresight has hamstrung teams. Combine that with poor drafting and overpaying "athletes" rather than football players and you end up with the Raiders

[BronxColtNYC]

He may not be that bad but is sure not Grigson

I wouldn't mind being McKenzie next off-season.

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=afcwest&id=56946&src=desktop

Projected 69 mil in cap space.

[BronxColtNYC]

Great work on breaking this down, it's comforting to realise the long term planning that's going on in the FO. Sounds obvious now but historically, such as in Philly, the win now mentality with no foresight has hamstrung teams. Combine that with poor drafting and overpaying "athletes" rather than football players and you end up with the Raiders

I'm not ready to crown Grigson the next Bill Parcells, but he has the 3 attributes to be successful.

1. Talent evaluation. Check.

2. Money management. Check.

3. Recruiting FA. Check.

Irsay hit it right.

[pacolt]

Good data.

[smittywerb]

Irsay hit it right.

 

Irsay deserves a pinned post just like Manning got for all the crap this board through at him for getting rid of Polian and not resigning PM.  Irsay looks like a genius right now.

[SteelCityColt]

I'm not ready to crown Grigson the next Bill Parcells, but he has the 3 attributes to be successful.

1. Talent evaluation. Check.

2. Money management. Check.

3. Recruiting FA. Check.

Irsay hit it right.

 

Certainly 1 Swallow does not a summer make but from the off I think the new management team had a vision for setting up the team for long term sustained success. Of course the crunch point will start I think when last year's rookies contracts start to expire and some tough choices might have to be made. 

[BrentMc11]

I'm not ready to crown Grigson the next Bill Parcells, but he has the 3 attributes to be successful.

1. Talent evaluation. Check.

2. Money management. Check.

3. Recruiting FA. Check.

Irsay hit it right.

I need to come back and like the original post....Out of likes....

 

You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day  LIKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  

 

You put into numbers and thought what a whole lot of us have been saying since FA began.  Exceptional post!!

 

Like you, we are not going to anoint Grigs with Knighthood, we will continue to analyze as we move forward....once again an awesome thread!!!

[Black-Vell]

I stated this from the beginning. All of our FA signings were signed for their NEXT contract except DHB. He was - but he has the shortest opportuntity to earn his stay. All these guys will have to become a superstar through the success of our team.

 

That creates loyalty,  respect & cap room. Technically - The Polian Way.

 

As for the money - there is a salary cap so its always irrelevent.

 

Example - Joe Flacco became the highest player in the NFL right? But technically he didnt. Contracts reference the future market - so where do you think he will be after the top 5 QB's sign their next contract? 

 

Imma guess - hear me - guess - top QB salary will be A Rodgers. 

 

Grigson didnt trick us - Smart money doesnt spend on big names early in Free Agency. Its a money grab. C'mon man - if you were G Jennings - why would you go to MIN? Leave A Rodgers to take your last big contract. Or M Wallace (slightly more understandable) to MIA when you can go anywhere you want. RG looked right past the greedy guys motivated totally by the loot right now and got us guys hoping to be in a position to be greedy next time.

 

Our cap is gonna be straight again next year. What if we have 20-30M. Who will require major coin next year that we wont have someone already backing up? CB - OLB/DE - RB & WR will be dealt with in the draft. Hopefully in that order because V Davis holds the most leverage - but then again Walden worries me the most replacing Freeney. We may need a K.

[masterlock]

Grigson, with the signings, set the team up for another 40 million cap space off-season. That's the gist.

 

I don't get how the contracts/signings set us up for $40M cap space next season. Won't most of our players still be under contact? And even if the 2014 cap ceiling is raised, I doubt it will go up $40 M.

[BronxColtNYC]

I don't get how the contracts/signings set us up for $40M cap space next season. Won't most of our players still be under contact? And even if the 2014 cap ceiling is raised, I doubt it will go up $40 M.

I'm glad you asked. I WANT EVEryone to understand this.

This may help more. Our total cap hit for all players under contact comes out to 87 million. 121.5-87=34.5

You get 87 million by adding base salary plus prorated bonus.

Base salary total is 64 million plus prorated bonuses of 23 million

Add carry over money

Add tv deal cap increase.

Rounds out to 40 or more.

Here's a link.

http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Colts&Year=2014

[BronxColtNYC]

Please don't be afraid to ask if you dont understand. It is VERY important for Colts fans to understand how our money is spent. Understanding the metrics of the cap situation only makes you a better (and in this case happier) fan.

[BronxColtNYC]

I don't get how the contracts/signings set us up for $40M cap space next season. Won't most of our players still be under contact? And even if the 2014 cap ceiling is raised, I doubt it will go up $40 M.

The beauty of the situation is that we only have 6 players that make a base of 5mil or more. That's how we have a near complete team, but aren't breaking the bank.

[BronxColtNYC]

Irsay deserves a pinned post just like Manning got for all the crap this board through at him for getting rid of Polian and not resigning PM.  Irsay looks like a genius right now.

Post of the year.

[braveheartcolt]

The whole replacing Luck thing is irrelevant, as he's going to be a bust. Well, the 'poster who cannot be mentioned' says he will be. And do we really need to mention Polian everytime we talk about draft picks or signing FA's...... 

[BronxColtNYC]

Certainly 1 Swallow does not a summer make but from the off I think the new management team had a vision for setting up the team for long term sustained success. Of course the crunch point will start I think when last year's rookies contracts start to expire and some tough choices might have to be made. 

If he continues to manage the cap correctly, Ballard, Hilton, fleener, Allen and this year's class...we may be able to keep all. Especially with veterans like Mathis and Wayne gone, it opens cap more (they are 2 biggest cap hits)

[BronxColtNYC]

With all due respect, none of this screams polian. Very anti polian. But that's neither here nor there Grigson is future. Polian is past. We should celebrate the past but Mr. Grigson deserves credit for our present and future.

[BronxColtNYC]

^ in response to @black veil

[BronxColtNYC]

I need to come back and like the original post....Out of likes.... You have reached your quota of positive votes for the day  LIKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   You put into numbers and thought what a whole lot of us have been saying since FA began.  Exceptional post!! Like you, we are not going to anoint Grigs with Knighthood, we will continue to analyze as we move forward....once again an awesome thread!!!

Keep analyzing, keep questioning, never take anything at face value. Determine your own stance by researching it yourself.