What Separates Manning From His Peers?

[bayone]

Part Of A Stampede Blue Article

After the Colts' opening day blow out loss to the Texans, a friend texted me saying

"They should retroactively award Peyton 4 more MVP awards."

Following another ugly loss, this time to Cleveland, and it's obvious Manning would be more than deserving. No offense to Tom Brady,

but no one impacts a game and a team more than Manning.

What separates Manning from his peers?

While other quarterbacks are known for their big arms and explosive offenses, Manning has elevated himself from other elite qb's by being dead on accurate and efficient. Don't get me wrong, Peyton still has a 'laser rocket arm' (at least he used to), but it is Manning's incredible precision and efficiency that make him one of the greatest quarterbacks (if not the greatest) to ever play the game.

No where is that more evident than on third down conversions. Since 2002 the Colts have ranked in the 10 top in 3rd down conversion every year, leading the category from 2005-2009. Not surprisingly the Colts won 10 games each year during that stretch and were the winningest team in the history of any decade during the 2000's. Again, not surprisingly, in 2006 - the year the Colts won the Super Bowl - Indianapolis converted a ridiculous 56.2 percent of its 3rd downs during the regular season and led all postseason teams with a 46.9 conversion rate in the playoffs.

Another category that has separated good quarterbacks and teams from Super Bowl contenders is red zone scoring efficiency. Once again, Indianapolis leads the way. According to teamrankings.com, only twice in the past decade have the Colts failed to finish in the top 10 in red zone efficiency. In 2010, the Colts scored a remarkable 66.7 percent of the possessions they had inside the 20.

This year without Manning, the Colts have regressed considerably in both departments. So much so, that the Colts' red zone offense is just painful to witness.

It's like watching the class nerd try to pick up the hot high school cheerleader. You want him to succeed, but know he's ultimately not going to score and then feel sorry for him when he fails.

Currently the Colts rank 29th in the league in red zone scoring at 33 percent and tied for 24th in 3rd down conversations at 21.7 percent.

So how did Peyton keep the Colts clicking when it mattered most? And what can the Colts do to get back on track until he returns?

Unfortunately for the Colts, a lot of their success on third down and in the red zone isn't transferable. Peyton's sheer brilliance was to thank for such gaudy numbers.

And while we obviously can't know for sure, much of Peyton's ability to lead the Colts seemed to hinge around the fact that he enjoyed the challenge and the pressure of coming through in the clutch.

One reason for the Colt's high 3rd down success rate was that Peyton was one of the best quarterbacks at setting up a defense. The first two downs were a chance for Peyton to read the coverages and then react on third down accordingly. Once the defense was in his pocket, he'd go to work

Replacing Manning would be a tall order even for Tom Brady. But if the Colts hope to have even the slightest chance, Indy must find a way to improve its red zone offense and third down conversion rates.

My link

[chrisfarley]

overall, he's better and smarter than all his peers. from a pure football standpoint, he's as good as aaron rogers, brett favre, ben r., tom brady.

that's saying a lot.

[18Manning]

Part Of A Stampede Blue Article

After the Colts' opening day blow out loss to the Texans, a friend texted me saying

"They should retroactively award Peyton 4 more MVP awards."

Following another ugly loss, this time to Cleveland, and it's obvious Manning would be more than deserving. No offense to Tom Brady,

but no one impacts a game and a team more than Manning.

What separates Manning from his peers?

While other quarterbacks are known for their big arms and explosive offenses, Manning has elevated himself from other elite qb's by being dead on accurate and efficient. Don't get me wrong, Peyton still has a 'laser rocket arm' (at least he used to), but it is Manning's incredible precision and efficiency that make him one of the greatest quarterbacks (if not the greatest) to ever play the game.

No where is that more evident than on third down conversions. Since 2002 the Colts have ranked in the 10 top in 3rd down conversion every year, leading the category from 2005-2009. Not surprisingly the Colts won 10 games each year during that stretch and were the winningest team in the history of any decade during the 2000's. Again, not surprisingly, in 2006 - the year the Colts won the Super Bowl - Indianapolis converted a ridiculous 56.2 percent of its 3rd downs during the regular season and led all postseason teams with a 46.9 conversion rate in the playoffs.

Another category that has separated good quarterbacks and teams from Super Bowl contenders is red zone scoring efficiency. Once again, Indianapolis leads the way. According to teamrankings.com, only twice in the past decade have the Colts failed to finish in the top 10 in red zone efficiency. In 2010, the Colts scored a remarkable 66.7 percent of the possessions they had inside the 20.

This year without Manning, the Colts have regressed considerably in both departments. So much so, that the Colts' red zone offense is just painful to witness.

It's like watching the class nerd try to pick up the hot high school cheerleader. You want him to succeed, but know he's ultimately not going to score and then feel sorry for him when he fails.

Currently the Colts rank 29th in the league in red zone scoring at 33 percent and tied for 24th in 3rd down conversations at 21.7 percent.

So how did Peyton keep the Colts clicking when it mattered most? And what can the Colts do to get back on track until he returns?

Unfortunately for the Colts, a lot of their success on third down and in the red zone isn't transferable. Peyton's sheer brilliance was to thank for such gaudy numbers.

And while we obviously can't know for sure, much of Peyton's ability to lead the Colts seemed to hinge around the fact that he enjoyed the challenge and the pressure of coming through in the clutch.

One reason for the Colt's high 3rd down success rate was that Peyton was one of the best quarterbacks at setting up a defense. The first two downs were a chance for Peyton to read the coverages and then react on third down accordingly. Once the defense was in his pocket, he'd go to work

Replacing Manning would be a tall order even for Tom Brady. But if the Colts hope to have even the slightest chance, Indy must find a way to improve its red zone offense and third down conversion rates.

My link

It's pretty obvious, you take Manning out and EVERYTHING drops off tremendously. Like I said in another post, there is NO quaterback that can step into the Colts' system and produce like Manning did/can. Manning is like the Albert Eistein of football. You can't teach someone to be an Eistein. Manning's brain and talent together are unparalleled.

[Greenoughrunner]

Ya thats what i been telling my friends as hard as it is to say we arnt overly good with out him and when we put him into the mixes were the best. Take tom brady out there still good

[P-Money]

Ya thats what i been telling my friends as hard as it is to say we arnt overly good with out him and when we put him into the mixes were the best. Take tom brady out there still good

In years past this was true of Brady because they had a good defense. You take Brady out of this years team and they suck just as bad as we do. I'm a huge Manning fan, but Brady is just as good. Its like comparing Bird to Magic. You could debate the topic until your head explodes and still not win.

[IndyTrav]

Although I agree that Peyton is the best, I think we as Colts fans go about it the wrong way. We get caught up in comparisons, and SBs. Peyton as a QB has no peers, and there are no comparisons. The QB position in the NFL today is Peyton Manning. What Rodgers,Brady,Brees,etc are all doing right now is a direct representation of what Mannig has done to this league. The approach, the preparation, the execution, play calling, rules, all have changed. Unfortunately it's my belief Peyton won't have the most of a lot of things( SBs,TDs, etc) when it's all said and done, but his place as new QB 'prototype' is firmly in place. He is the Wright brothers of the new NFL.

[UMLBB10]

INT's at the most inoppertune times

[bayone]

INT's at the most inoppertune times

some his fault not all, some are receiver injury issues pulling up or running wrong routes but u wont have Peyton saying that in big games as an excuse, thats not him

[gspdx]

In years past this was true of Brady because they had a good defense. You take Brady out of this years team and they suck just as bad as we do. I'm a huge Manning fan, but Brady is just as good. Its like comparing Bird to Magic. You could debate the topic until your head explodes and still not win.

Maybe - but we don't really know that. What we have to compare is this year without Peyton compared to the Pats year without Tom Brady. If all of the sudden the Colts start winning and have a respectable year, then we can say Peyton wasn't that impactful. But I don't really thing the Colts without Manning are going to make much noise.

[GoPats]

What we have to compare is this year without Peyton compared to the Pats year without Tom Brady. If all of the sudden the Colts start winning and have a respectable year, then we can say Peyton wasn't that impactful. But I don't really thing the Colts without Manning are going to make much noise.

I've got to respectfully disagree on that... it's not a good comparison at all. The circumstances are pretty different.

For starters, there's the nature of how their injuries came about. Brady was drilled in the knee eight minutes into the year's first game after the Patriots' 18-1 season. It was widely known before week one that Manning would miss a significant amount of time. And it goes without saying that Polian and the front office knew more than what was out there in the media. If they really thought Manning had a shot at playing week one, there's no way they would have gotten Collins.

So one injury was very sudden and very unexpected. The other was more of a gradual thing.

Second, it's also not a great comparison because Matt Cassel acquitted himself quite well as Brady's fill-in. The guy had a heck of a season, no other way to put it. And although he's struggling in 2011, Cassel was a Pro Bowl QB last year (not that that really means that much, of course). Collins has been horrible to this point.

Lastly, the 2008 Patriots were coming off their 18-1 campaign and were still loaded. The 2010 Colts struggled at times, even with Manning.

I just don't think it's a cut-and-dry comparison, is all I'm saying.

But I do agree that the Colts are much worse off without Manning than the Patriots would be if they lost Brady again. That's mostly due to coaching, though, not necessarily personnel or scheme. Caldwell could not hold Belichick's clipboard and I think we all know that.

[Coltsman1788]

What sets Manning apart from his peers is his cerebral game in my opinion. There are guys that throw a prettier pass, can pass for more yards and run more electrifying offenses. However, no one quarterbacks the way that 18 does. He is a coach on the field pure and simple.

Manning's record breaking pace early in his career took the NFL by storm and has influenced other offenses in the league. Most notably it spurred Belichick to reconsider his offensive approach and reinvent the Pats offense into the explosive force that it is today. This happened after our 06 Super Bowl run when Belichick realized that the Pats as then configured had been surpassed by the Colts.

Now as far as protypes for the future of the QB position goes...I see it evolving more towards a hybrid between pocket passers and running ability. Guys like Cam Newton could be the new wave of what is to come. Heck even Aaron Rodgers can run quite well when necessary. Vick improved his pocket passing skills last year to go with his off the charts running game. Guys that can still stand in the pocket yet also use their legs as well adds another dimension and I think they are the new wave of quarterbacks that we will be seeing more of in the future.

I see Manning more as a pure pocket passer who will leave his mark on the position because of his overall mental grasp of the game. He will become the standard to whom all others are compared in regards to that.

[degjohn]

Here are a couple articles/stats that highlight Manning's value to the team. I haven't seen them posted before. Pasted part of link below too.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6834507/nfl-peyton-manning-top-two-qbr-seasons

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/09/how-many-wins-is-manning-really-worth.html

Since 2000 (as far back as my data goes), Manning played in 176 regular-season games and accumulated a total of 43.0 WPA, for an average of 3.8 WPA per season. This equates to 0.24 WPA per game, which means that Manning (and his passing offense) would give an otherwise perfectly average team a 74% chance of winning a game. In other words, he would take an 8-win team and make them an 11.8-win team.

To put Manning's numbers in perspective, Tom Brady's career WPA/G is 0.16, still extremely good, but not quite up in the Manningsphere. Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger have both averaged 0.14 WPA/G. Kerry Collins, who is likely replacing Manning at least for week 1, has averaged 0.01 WPA/G (since 2000). In 2010, including the playoffs, Aaron Rodgers averaged 0.23 WPA/G.

[P-Money]

I've got to respectfully disagree on that... it's not a good comparison at all. The circumstances are pretty different.

For starters, there's the nature of how their injuries came about. Brady was drilled in the knee eight minutes into the year's first game after the Patriots' 18-1 season. It was widely known before week one that Manning would miss a significant amount of time. And it goes without saying that Polian and the front office knew more than what was out there in the media. If they really thought Manning had a shot at playing week one, there's no way they would have gotten Collins.

So one injury was very sudden and very unexpected. The other was more of a gradual thing.

Second, it's also not a great comparison because Matt Cassel acquitted himself quite well as Brady's fill-in. The guy had a heck of a season, no other way to put it. And although he's struggling in 2011, Cassel was a Pro Bowl QB last year (not that that really means that much, of course). Collins has been horrible to this point.

Lastly, the 2008 Patriots were coming off their 18-1 campaign and were still loaded. The 2010 Colts struggled at times, even with Manning.

I just don't think it's a cut-and-dry comparison, is all I'm saying.

But I do agree that the Colts are much worse off without Manning than the Patriots would be if they lost Brady again. That's mostly due to coaching, though, not necessarily personnel or scheme. Caldwell could not hold Belichick's clipboard and I think we all know that.

Couldn't agree more. Nice post.

[Coltsman1788]

It's pretty obvious, you take Manning out and EVERYTHING drops off tremendously. Like I said in another post, there is NO quaterback that can step into the Colts' system and produce like Manning did/can. Manning is like the Albert Eistein of football. You can't teach someone to be an Eistein. Manning's brain and talent together are unparalleled.

While this is true it is also because the Colts built their team completely around one guy with a very unique way of playing the quarterback position. Manning's physcial abilities don't set him apart from his peers as much as his football mind does. Tom Moore gave Peyton freedom to run this offensive that has been unparalleled. It was because he recognized Peyton's unique football mind and built an entire system around it. So quite naturally, things will fall apart if that player is no longer there.

Now had the Colts implemented a more standard, traditional style of offense without the heavy dependence of pre-snap audibling, adustments, reads, play selection, etc. then it is quite possible that another competent quarterback could step in and do a decent job of things. But that is not the situation in Indy.

[UMLBB10]

I do agree the drop off without manning is the biggest for the colts vs any other team. which is the problem with building your entire franchise around 1 player. that is a front office issue. losing manning for the season is just a magnified issue that's been there all along. without him the colts can't win. which means you shut that 1 player down in a playoff game and the season is over. the pats have been getting criticized recently for the same thing. come up with a game plan to stop Brady and nobody else on the roster is capable of winning the game.

[tonychen]

I do agree the drop off without manning is the biggest for the colts vs any other team. which is the problem with building your entire franchise around 1 player. that is a front office issue. losing manning for the season is just a magnified issue that's been there all along. without him the colts can't win. which means you shut that 1 player down in a playoff game and the season is over. the pats have been getting criticized recently for the same thing. come up with a game plan to stop Brady and nobody else on the roster is capable of winning the game.

I agree and partly the reason for these teams to depend on one player is they both have been pretty good teams for yrs and they do not have the necessary drafts to acquire talents. Thus they build systems and let undrafted players fill in.

[DILLIGAFER]

What separates Manning from his peers?... EVERYTHING.

[swflacoltsfans]

He's taller than most? I give up then.

[oldunclemark]

Decision making

[FairleySuhper]

He knows how to cut that meat better than the rest. And he's quite the apt pupil. Who has now become the teacher. He's like....Johnny Unitas meets Wild Bill meets Luke Skywalker meets Captain Kirk.

[bayone]

I've got to respectfully disagree on that... it's not a good comparison at all. The circumstances are pretty different.

For starters, there's the nature of how their injuries came about. Brady was drilled in the knee eight minutes into the year's first game after the Patriots' 18-1 season. It was widely known before week one that Manning would miss a significant amount of time. And it goes without saying that Polian and the front office knew more than what was out there in the media. If they really thought Manning had a shot at playing week one, there's no way they would have gotten Collins.

So one injury was very sudden and very unexpected. The other was more of a gradual thing.

Second, it's also not a great comparison because Matt Cassel acquitted himself quite well as Brady's fill-in. The guy had a heck of a season, no other way to put it. And although he's struggling in 2011, Cassel was a Pro Bowl QB last year (not that that really means that much, of course). Collins has been horrible to this point.

Lastly, the 2008 Patriots were coming off their 18-1 campaign and were still loaded. The 2010 Colts struggled at times, even with Manning.

I just don't think it's a cut-and-dry comparison, is all I'm saying.

But I do agree that the Colts are much worse off without Manning than the Patriots would be if they lost Brady again. That's mostly due to coaching, though, not necessarily personnel or scheme. Caldwell could not hold Belichick's clipboard and I think we all know that.

Couldn't agree more. Nice post.

Do understand your point but the struggling was due to some 16 players many key WR & TE weapons on offense and KEY D as well on IR , getting those back with Peyton in would be an entirely different story now as it would have been last year if Peyton had them

as my childhood friend said at this years start , we are talking a die hard Pat fan living near Boston

who merited top honors as was phi beta kappa at MIT and graduated in only 3 years and full partner in fortune 500 statistical / analytical firm said, SO I AM Not TALKING ABOUT SOMEONE WITHOUT BRAINS ,

Given the personal the colts will get back this year WE Shall See What Manning Is Really Worth