The sample size of 6 may tell a compelling statistical story

[chad72]

I had wanted to start writing about this before I went on vacation on Oct.13, 2012 to Myrtle Beach but I thought I'd wait and see what I felt about this stat would come true again. I saw Peyton Manning make his MNF comeback on the exact day of my 40th birthday and that was TERRIFIC to watch. So, here it goes, my theory about a sample size of 6.

I was a big fan of that German tennis star Boris Becker, thanks to his reckless abandon at Wimbledon flying around and making volleys (when serve and volley was a big part of tennis then). He used to dominate the American tennis star Jim Courier. His record going into a particular game was 5-0 vs Courier, it was indoors where Becker played phenomenal. But Becker lost to go 5-1 vs Courier in his career, I guess Courier was tired of losing to Becker.

Rafael Nadal had won 4 consecutive French Open titles, and then he lost to Tomas Berdych. He has won 7 out of 8 French Open titles.

Bjorn Borg had won 5 straight Wimbledons and was on his way to win his 6th Wimbledon. That is when John McEnroe, the American rebel, took Wimbledon by storm and humbled Bjorn Borg in 1981 to avenge his loss in 1980 . Roger Federer had won 5 consecutive Wimbledons and was on his way to the sixth to beat Bjorn Borg's record, that is when Rafael Nadal beat Roger in an epic 5 set final with Borg watching (scared that Roger might beat his record of consecutive Wimbledons, I guess ).

How is it related to football? Here we go.

Tom Brady, from 2002 to 2009, over six games with the Broncos, had won 1 and lost 5. Peyton Manning, from 2001 to 2004, had lost 5 games vs the Brady let Pats consecutively (once Brady was entrenched as starter) before he won 1 in 2005.

Flash forward to the latest occurrence that led me to believe Peyton would beat the Chargers on MNF. Peyton has had 3 back-to-backs scheduled vs the Patriots and Chargers recently. He was 0-2 in 2007, 0-2 in 2010, and was 0-1 going into MNF. Then, the sample size of 6 spoke. He won the 6th one, going 1-5.

In any sample size of 6, the sixth one seems to buck the trend of the other five. These are just sports occurrences that I can think of. Is there any other validation to this statistical madness I am alluding to?

Stat buffs can pitch in any time.

[WSO]

da fuc did i just read

[House]

I had wanted to start writing about this before I went on vacation on Oct.13, 2012 to Myrtle Beach but I thought I'd wait and see what I felt about this stat would come true again. I saw Peyton Manning make his MNF comeback on the exact day of my 40th birthday and that was TERRIFIC to watch. So, here it goes, my theory about a sample size of 6.

I was a big fan of that German tennis star Boris Becker, thanks to his reckless abandon at Wimbledon flying around and making volleys (when serve and volley was a big part of tennis then). He used to dominate the American tennis star Jim Courier. His record going into a particular game was 5-0 vs Courier, it was indoors where Becker played phenomenal. But Becker lost to go 5-1 vs Courier in his career, I guess Courier was tired of losing to Becker.

Rafael Nadal had won 4 consecutive French Open titles, and then he lost to Tomas Berdych. He has won 7 out of 8 French Open titles.

Bjorn Borg had won 5 straight Wimbledons and was on his way to win his 6th Wimbledon. That is when John McEnroe, the American rebel, took Wimbledon by storm and humbled Bjorn Borg in 1981 to avenge his loss in 1980 . Roger Federer had won 5 consecutive Wimbledons and was on his way to the sixth to beat Bjorn Borg's record, that is when Rafael Nadal beat Roger in an epic 5 set final with Borg watching (scared that Roger might beat his record of consecutive Wimbledons, I guess ).

How is it related to football? Here we go.

Tom Brady, from 2002 to 2009, over six games with the Broncos, had won 1 and lost 5. Peyton Manning, from 2001 to 2004, had lost 5 games vs the Brady let Pats consecutively (once Brady was entrenched as starter) before he won 1 in 2005.

Flash forward to the latest occurrence that led me to believe Peyton would beat the Chargers on MNF. Peyton has had 3 back-to-backs scheduled vs the Patriots and Chargers recently. He was 0-2 in 2007, 0-2 in 2010, and was 0-1 going into MNF. Then, the sample size of 6 spoke. He won the 6th one, going 1-5.

In any sample size of 6, the sixth one seems to buck the trend of the other five. These are just sports occurrences that I can think of. Is there any other validation to this statistical madness I am alluding to?

Stat buffs can pitch in any time.

Nadal actually lost to Robin Soderling at the French. His only loss in Paris

[chad72]

Nadal actually lost to Robin Soderling at the French. His only loss in Paris

Thanks for the correction. Tomas Berdych seems to be a giant killer name I remember a lot of times (much like Miloslav Mecir in the late 80s).

Jules is normally the one I talk patterns and numbers with. But I thought I'd open this up for discussion to see that if there is mathematical data to suggest 1 in 6 occurrences buck trends or something like that. I have seen too many examples to not believe in these numbers.

[House]

Thanks for the correction. Tomas Berdych seems to be a giant killer name I remember a lot of times (much like Miloslav Mecir in the late 80s).

Jules is normally the one I talk patterns and numbers with. But I thought I'd open this up for discussion to see that if there is mathematical data to suggest 1 in 6 occurrences buck trends or something like that. I have seen too many examples to not believe in these numbers.

Naw, I'm just a tennis nerd so these things never seem to leave my brain lol.

Berdy is Feds personal nightmare recently though

Good post

[Jules]

Thanks for the correction. Tomas Berdych seems to be a giant killer name I remember a lot of times (much like Miloslav Mecir in the late 80s).

Jules is normally the one I talk patterns and numbers with. But I thought I'd open this up for discussion to see that if there is mathematical data to suggest 1 in 6 occurrences buck trends or something like that. I have seen too many examples to not believe in these numbers.

Oh God I think this is even beyond me.

I will say this, I wondered if the Pats issues with the Broncos was more a Mike Shanahan thing. I wondered this last season when the Skins nearly upset NE.

[chad72]

Oh God I think this is even beyond me.

I will say this, I wondered if the Pats issues with the Broncos was more a Mike Shanahan thing. I wondered this last season when the Skins nearly upset NE.

Just like Peyton's thing with the Pats was a Romeo Crennel thing and in 2005, Crennel left.

From 2005 to 2010, Peyton is 1-5 vs the Chargers (loss in 2005, twice in 2007, once in 2008, and once in 2010, sole win was in 2008), now my head will explode analyzing another 1-5 . That was a Colts thing, the make up of our team vs the make up of theirs. They had the Colts at O-line meet D-line, midgets meet tall WRs, and ST suckage meet Sproles and Scifres .

[bayone]

In any sample size of 6, the sixth one seems to buck the trend of the other five. These are just sports occurrences that I can think of. Is there any other validation to this statistical madness I am alluding to?

Stat buffs can pitch in any time.

how Valid this truly is I wont say but got to love the thought process