loudnproudcolt
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Posts posted by loudnproudcolt
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Last year Osemile set a new market for top of the line guards, his contract averages out at $11.7/yr. Additionally, good guard play salaries have been moving up. With the weak class of FA, if they do not franchise him, he is going to get Osemile money. He is a very good guard in his prime, and boatloads of cap space for teams to spend, and the only way to get one of the top FA is going to be overspending, as is always the case in FA if you have targeted someone. Cleveland and SF both have over 100M in cap space and need line help desperately. Jack. needs line help and they have more cap space than we do right now, and you could argue they have more talent up and coming, although not a QB with the regression of Bortles. With the cap space, a million here or there to secure someone one of these teams want will not matter. I believe Cleveland knows they are going to have to overspend to get FA talent. The only question is does Zietler or any of top FA's want to go to teams who at best can be seen as rebuilding.
I would rather spend the money on someone like Leary. He will still demand 8-9/M yr. I bet, but he is very good, and would be the better deal,imho. I would love Zeitler, but watch as he tops Osemile from last year!
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20 hours ago, MPStack said:
I think someone will pay him D. Allen type money. If that does end up being the case, the Colts should let him walk. I can`t see two TE`s with contracts like Allen`s on the same team.
I agree with this. Jack Doyle is good, but he is not special imo. Also with Swoope emerging as the down the field threat and Allen playing such an important role in blocking schemes as well as receiving, I don't think you have a choice. Plus if someone pays him D.Allen type of money which I would not doubt since the FA class is so poor this year with a dearth of WR's and TE's, he will get more money in FA because of the cap cash out there. The one good thing, and I think we need to think like Baltimore at times. If someone pays him D. Allen type money, we will get around a 5th or 4th round comp. pick for him depending on money. I can see him being paid easily what Fleener got in this market. He is multi-skilled which makes is skill set more appealing, in a league shifting to more TE looks!
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I have gotten to the point there are few site on the net that I even go to and if there is a hint of the divisive rhetoric that I see and hear today, I just go somewhere else, or turn off the TV. Luck is someone who is inclusive which is rare. He stays away from all the media, and truly seems just to love the good things life has brought him, and embraces them, even if some think they are "nerdy". When ESPN talks about him and Hasselback talks about the topics he brings up during meetings and on the bus, some of the commentators role their eyes. I think to myself, I wish I had someone like that to talk to. Genuine, informed, cares about his history which I really like. I wish more people could just let the politics of division go, and be more true to themselves. Andrew seems to live that motto everyday, and on the field which I can say I could not do. Getting up after someone knocks the crap out of you and saying great job. A true original, and we are lucky to have him on the team and as an example!
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Last year I was of the opinion before and after which is a surprise for FA's that the best signing was "snacks" Harrison for the NYG. He improved their run defense immensely, and compared to the price for a NT and what they got, I thought it was a bargain. For a 3/4 team, a good NT is essential. I believe Brandon Williams should be our top or one of our top targets. I think he is better than Poe, and has outplayed him the past couple years, imho.
Here is what Joel Corry, a former players agent had to say about him. Also, he is coming into his prime years as he is 27 years old.
Williams is the premier run-stuffing interior defensive lineman with an expiring contract heading to the market. He should be the biggest beneficiary of defensive tackle Damon Harrison, a 2016 free-agent signee, doing wonders for the Giants' run defense last season. Harrison joined a defense that gave up 121.4 yards per game (24th in the NFL) on the ground in 2015. With Harrison anchoring the defense, the Giants limited the opposition to 88.6 rushing yards per game last season to tie for third best in the NFL.
Harrison's five year, $46.25 million deal containing $24 million of guarantees should be Williams' salary floor with a team looking for him to make a similar impact on their run defense.
For 9-10M/yr. he would be a fantastic addition, and we would finally have an anchor. If what Ballard says is true about building the trenches, this should be the first stop for shopping, and the price would be well worth it. Although our luck with Ravens has not been good, it would be nice if Pagano could get us first in line since other teams will want him. We need to get him in our building first, and not let him go! NYG proved last year if you want someone you have to show them an offer they will take. I don't want to put to many of these out there, but I would like to start here. He is the kind of FA that is a plug and play, fits our system, and is one of the best at his position. Those don't make it to FA very often.
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Reuben Foster please. Unfortunately I think the Bengals grab him, but he would instantly be our leader on the defensive side, then we go CB in the second. Soloman Thomas would be a great player to draft, but I prefer Foster. If he falls out of the top 10, I would give something up to get him! Will be a stud in the NFL!
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FA is all about plugging holes when you are at the point where you are trying to get over the hump. That is when it has been most successful, and with the cap teams have, it will be dangerous this year going after certain FA's. Jacksonville the past two years is a great example of throwing money at people.
Free Agency to be successful you must do two things. The first is make sure the player you are going after is coming from a similar system as yours, and teammates did not make him look better than he is. I think system fit in the NFL is one of the biggest reasons players become stars, or the coach knows how to tailor the system to them. If they don't fit your system, regardless of name recognition don't do it. Also so many players become good because of who they play next to. Jerry Hughes improved so much after leaving here, but it had to do with their line, and how much it took pressure off of him. Paul Krueger from Baltimore, another great example.
Second thing I believe is important is certain positions can be a little independent from system fit. OL, CB's as long as you make sure if they are cover or zone. DL as long as they are coming from the same defense you play. Regardless it is tricky, but my opinion,
Williams plays the same system in Baltimore as we do, has been very productive and would be a great replacement for Parry.
I think our OL is in good shape and with the zone read in college now, OL usually take 2 years to develop. The line was growing and getting better at seasons end. I am still worried though about RG and would love to have Lang or Leary. Zeitler may be a little pricey.
I would like Trumaine Johnson for our CB but he is going to get a lot of money thrown his way. Gilmore is going to get tagged, and although as I have said Bouye scares me due to how good Houston's defensive pressure is which helps CB's, I think he would be worth going after.
Last but not least I would love Ingram if the money is not silly, but Parry would be a great one to get also and probably a little cheaper. If we could get 3/4 of these guys, instant plug and plays who I believe would be worth it. We have so much cap space this year and next because dearth of extensions because of Grigson's terrible drafting.
The one thing though I hate is with Cleveland and SF in excess of 100M in cap space, and 6 other teams ahead of us, some people are going to make silly money. NYG signings worked out last year, but they doled out a lot, and this year will be worse. Simple supply/demand. We have to start developing our own players!
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After his first year, I would have said Poe would be worth 15M, but the last two years he has tailed off. Williams has been better and he will be cheaper. I also think someone who has massive cap space like SF or Cleveland will throw silly money his way. Also what has Fairley done for 9M/yr.? That money can be spent elsewhere. I would love to have Zach Brown, Williams and a RG. That would be perfect since they all would be first day starters and make an impact. They would be expensive but worth it. NYG were one of the first teams in FA who although spending a lot targeted specific points they needed. That is what I want.
Love the 1st and 2nd round pick. I think the kid from Michigan because of his size may slip, but he is a player.
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One more thought on FA. We may not get the players we all would like for one simple reason, and it shows what bad drafting does to teams. Cleveland and SF both have excess of 100M in cap space this year alone. Players like Trumaine Johnson whose DC is now at Cleveland is going to have huge bucks thrown at him. Cleveland, SF, Jack. still have huge cap space. Players will have to choose dollars over team. Players getting their first FA contract usually pick dollars, so getting the players you want is tough. Hopefully Ballard will be able to talk to some FA's and say look at the culture and not just the dollars. In most cases though if we want someone we target, we will have to pay!
Regardless, Cleveland and SF are the two cautionary tales of bad drafting.
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Guys, as far as the cap is concerned, I think we will have north of 50M after we extend Mewhort, Montcrief and Doyle and a few others who will be very low cap hits. The amount over 50M depends on cuts, and there will be more than DQ and Art. That is a lot of money for FA, and I agree I only want quality, not quantity. The one thing to consider though is because of Grigson's drafting, we have cap space of 79M in 2018. So if we don't spend a decent amount of cap space this year going after a couple quality FA's, we would enter 2018 with over 100M in cap space after our carryover of cap space from 2017 goes to 2018. Now in 2018 we will have some people to extend, Vontae, etc. but we are still going to have a huge amount of cap space. Grigson's draft picks have lead to a dearth of our own draft picks to sign, thus we are going to have two years with huge cap space. Don't waste it, but you have to find starters. After 2018, we can hopefully start extending draft picks that Ballard has drafted.
Williams over Poe
Lang over Zeitler
A top CB, but Bouye scares me because Houston's defense helps CBs.
3 top signings, all start and we will still have plenty of carryover for 2018 to sign all our players we want to extend, and we also can look at where the holes still are after the 2017 draft. 2018 we will have more cap space than this year regardless of what we do this year in FA!
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Slated in most drafts at #7 because SD really needs a safety to replace what they lost when Weddle left. If Adams from LSU was not such a good player, Hooker would be top 3, and I have heard Jeremiah say as far as ceiling, that is where he belongs. We have only glimpses about how good he will be. Earl Thomas comes to mind as far as ceiling and if he dropped we would be silly not to take him imho. One of the true studs this draft if medical clears him.
I know I will get mocked for this, but if medical said he won't make training camp, it would be good for Colts. He probably would fall then. I would hate it for the kid, but not for us.
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I do not want a player who is a gamble in the first round. Although it is impossible to guarantee success, McDowell is a player who is going to be all or nothing, and is going to need coaching. If we trade back, the value is in the CB's!
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I don't think it would be worth it to trade back, especially twice. If we were to trade back, I think you have to look at the chart first, and then you need to formulate offers on the team who wants the pick and how badly they want to move into your position. This is where you can get extra value, and is why it makes valuing a trade like that so difficult.
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I would prefer Berry. He would be an incredible upgrade and provide leadership for the team. That position is undervalued in today's NFL IMHO. Look what happened with the Seahawks when Earl Thomas broke his leg. He is the reason that defensive backfield is so good. He provides that blanket where corners know he has their back. Berry is the same kind of player, and leader. Unfortunately I think Berry is the one who gets franchised or extended long term because safeties make less.
Assuming though Berry and Poe were allowed to hit FA, I would rather have Brandon Williams from Baltimore. He is going to hit FA, he would be cheaper and I believe he has been the better player. Poe was great his rookie year, but since then his play has tailed off a bit. In the end, I would love to have Berry!
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After reading and listening to Ballard, I will state a few things I have already said, but one thing stands out about what I read in the paper today when he interviewed for the Chicago Bears GM job last year. I don't think him being a new GM is going to make a difference as to how he approaches the craft. When he interviewed with Chicago, he had a good shot at the job, but he told Chicago what he felt the problems were, and they could be fixed through organizational changes. Chicago did not want to hear that, and supposedly this was the reason he did not get the job. He was honest with him and had a vision. I expect him to do the same thing, in fact I believe it is what Irsay liked so much about him. He is going to evaluate all our players, and you are going to see cuts made.
Second, as I have stated before, I believe he will want to build through the draft, but after getting done with his evaluation, he is going to be faced with a talent deficit and a large amount of cap space for the next two years.
We have over 60M this year, assuming Jones and DQ are gone which I think is safe, and I think once he looks at tape, the number is going to grow. This year the only players we need to extend to what I would deem more than small numbers is Mewhort, Montcrief, and Doyle. There are others, but they won't be large contracts.
Grigson's terrible draft choices, especially in 2013 left us in a position where we don't have our own players to extend. We are going to have to use FA in some fashion to fill some of the holes!
In 2018, without any carry over from this year's large amount of cap space, we have 79M in cap space, and we are going to be facing the same situation thanks to Grigson. In 2019 we should start extending some of this years draft group which I actually like some of the players, Kelly especially, and I think the OL we drafted is going to grow and surprise. They improved over the course of the year, and because of the college game, very few lineman come in and make an impact. I think we will be signing our last draft class and some of 2015 to extensions. Regardless, we are going to have a huge amount of cap space the next two years, and holes to fill. In 2018 and 19 we hopefully will start signing our own draft picks to extensions and not have to worry about FA too much except to fill certain holes like Denver has done and excellent job of lately.
FA is about understanding players who are highly touted are good many times because of the system they play in and the players who are beside them. These two things are huge impacts to how good most guys play and system must be taken into account when looking at players. Certain positions though are more independent. Safety is one of them, DL of the system you run, and OL. CB you need to consider if your FA plays zone or press. We play press.
We have a lot of holes to fill, and I would love to have Berry as our safety. We need a captain for this defense. I would prefer Williams from Baltimore over Poe. Poe has underperformed the last few years, and Williams would be a little cheaper. I like our OL for the most part but their are some guards I would really like to look at. Zeitler is going to be expensive, but there are some like Lang, who may be a little cheaper and are very good. I look at Bouye and yes he had a great year, but it was still only his first year where he shined, and he had a really good defense, who pressured the QB, which really makes a CB's job easier. I also don't know if he is zone or press, and we are press. I like Johnson, although he under performed this year, and he is going to get big money, but he is a press corner I believe. I think since Cleveland hired Williams as their DC, they are going to toss huge money his way. Question is will he want to go to Cleveland?
My point, I want quality over quantity. If we find system fits that are cheaper then great. We are going to have to spend some of our cap space the next two years due to the simple fact Grigson drafted terribly and we will have few extensions to sign, and the amount of cap space we are going to have. Cleveland and SF both are going to have over 100M this year in cap space. The reason, lack of talent due to drafting. I don't want to be in this position in two years.
I think next year is going to be a tough one. All the teams in our division should continue to improve. I would love to make the playoffs, and with a healthy Luck and some good FA pickups, a great draft, and an improved OL, who knows. If not, at least we will have one more year of high draft choices, and huge cap space to pick up one or two more FA studs. Dave Toub I believe would be the new head coach and I believe the arrow is pointing up. I really like the GM we picked, but FA will have to be part of the plan.
Sorry for how long this was, but it summarizes a lot of thoughts I have had lately!
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Two quick items. We don't have to spend in FA, but with the money we have this year and next year I believe we have to spend in FA. Simply put, Grigson made bad choices so we have very few people we are going to be extending contracts with in the next two years.
Second, read an article about previous interviews he had, and one with the Chicago Bears. This is from Indy paper, but the reason they said he did not get the job was he told the Bears what they he believed they needed to do to get the organization organized, and going in the right direction. He was honest, and they did not want to hear that. For me, that is exactly what I want. Honesty and changing the direction of the franchise back to where it had been!
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One thing to think about is because of Grigson's drafting, we are not going to have many draft picks of our own who we are going to be extending, and those we do except for a few won't be anything massive. Only two I can think of are Mewhort and Montcrief off the top of my head. This is how missing draft picks hurts because it can force you into FA, which if you don't understand how many players were good due to their system fit, you are going to get bit by FA.
If you assume DQ and Jones are gone which I do, you have over 60M in cap space. Next year, 2018, before carryover we will have around 79M and I still see very few of our players who we have to extend. The fact is because of the bad drafting we are going to have to spend some dollars in FA to make this team better. I don't like the fact that FA is a risk, and you are paying big money, but we have to make it part of the team building right now. Otherwise the cap space is going to be in SF/Cleveland territory in two years. What we need are quality FA's. I know NYG spent a ton of money last year, but almost each player they paid for was a quality player who was a fit. It took awhile, but there defense got a lot better quickly. That was due to the signing of 3 key players. Snacks Harrison, Jenkins and Vernon, plus bringing back JPP on a one year prove it deal. All quality. If we pursue players, I want young and quality, not quantity like Grigson loved to do.
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I have read a lot of articles who sing Toub's praises, so him being the coach would be fine. The one thing I would think everyone would consider about whether Pagano stays for one year or not is Luck. Surgery, missing the offseason, and then coming back to a completely different coach and system. It would be pretty hard to hit the ground running when the season started, so you would be handicapping Toub as well. I agree that Pagano should be gone, but this is a unique situation due to Andrew. Yes he picks up offenses fast, but this would be his third in five years. That is a lot for anyone.Toub will be there next year, and Pagano would really need to do a lot to keep the job.
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Just a quick thought about trading down. I think you only do if you look at the value you are getting, but also who are you trading with. I don't want to trade back 10 spots, since I fully agree there are only so many people with 1st round grades, and we have a real "need" in this draft. Second, I would want to look at the team who wants to trade up with us. What are their likely targets, and then the targets of the teams who are now ahead of us. If you think one of your targeted players will still be there, and you get value, OK.
As much as I want an extra draft pick, I would be looking more at where Foster goes. If he is there after #10, I would think about moving up 3 spots. Simply my opinion though. I think any draft you go and game plan for as many strategies that could occur.
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First, I believe Polian has a big hand in what is going on. After the last 5 years I believe Jimmy is going to listen to the only GM who had a stable existence with the Colts over a long time and has proved with many clubs how good he is.
Second, if I was Ballard or any GM coming in, with the acrimony you know has happened over the last two years, would you not want to talk to Pagano to hear what he has to say, and also hear his philosophy. The chances are you are going to be paired with him for a year.
Last, whoever is the choice, if you feel like Pagano is someone you cannot work with for a year for whatever reasons you have, you are going to tell Irsay. No hire who is presumably going to have chances in the future, and coming from a stable situation would do this. I believe Pagano's input does not matter to Jimmy at this point. In fact, it may come down to a hire saying I will take the job "if" Pagano is fired. I obviously don't know what is going to happen, but I do know Pagano is hanging by a thread, so to say his input is going to shape or change Jimmy's mind makes no sense.
I think Jimmy is looking for the long term, and someone who has a true track record. Ballard does, and he helped make Kansas City very stable the last few years.
I don't know who the hire will be, but to me the Pagano interview make sense. Pagano will have no impact on the outcome unless the GM Irsay wants to hire gives him a Pagano or me ultimatum.
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The hardest thing about FA is finding players who are scheme fits for your club, who are coming from clubs. I don't think all the factors surrounding players success is looked at enough. As I said, certain positions you can make clean, objective decisions about. When it comes to CB and LB, those two positions are usually so heavily dependent on who is in front of them, and beside them. When Paul Krueger was a FA and everyone said get him, I said he will be a bust because of who he played beside and who was in front of him helped him so much. So many cautionary tales in FA, and when teams have over 100M in cap space, Cleveland and SF, and bidding wars take place, you better be darn sure. Does anyone think Malik Jackson was worth the $$ he got last year from Jacksonville? Cautionary tales abound!
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Just a though on AJ Bouye. If you are going to spend money on FA's, take players you can look at and know they are not influenced by the system or team. AJ is having a great year, but one thing that helps a CB is a great pass rush. When you have be on a receiver 3 seconds instead of 5, then that makes a lot of difference. I have not done any work on Bouye, so I am not making any judgments. I just know after watching all the FA busts, especially from Baltimore that they excelled because who they were playing next to or the system they were in. It must be a consideration.
Guard is a position you can judge and see if a player is beating his man or not. Zeitler would be great as well as a couple other guards who may be FA's. Zach Brown you would think would be influenced by the Bills DL, which would argue against taking him if they were eating up blocks. This year though their DL played terribly, so did Zach flourish without them? These are the kind of things we need to look at when we make acquisitions. Also, quality over quantity. I would rather have two excellent signings than 4 that look good. Beside Bouye, Zeitler and Brown would be great. I just hope the circus does not scare them away.
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A stud RB would help a lot, but there OL is a mess, and Elliot has had the year because he runs behind the best line in the NFL. Only one team has an OL that is close to them, and that is Oakland, and they are a far 2nd. I still don't know how they lost so many games last year with that line?
Oh, back to the Giants. Before they get that stud RB they need to focus on the OL, and it will be hard to improve in the next few years because the draft is the only way they can improve it. They spent so much on guaranteed money for the defensive FA's, that acquiring quality FA OL is not going to be feasible. In today's NFL, if you are lucky enough to draft a quality OL, they need at least a year to develop, and quality coaching to make sure they become the best they can be. As we see, that does not happen very often. With the college spread, it seems so many OL drafted high in the last 5 years have turned out to be mediocre at best. You can go down and list all the top lineman drafted lately and so many have been busts. We were very smart to get Kelly. He was as clean a player as I remember, and coming from Saban's system and his accomplishments showed he already had NFL caliber coaching and talent. That is not the case most of the time!
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On 1/3/2017 at 11:20 PM, ar7 said:
There are several reasons why I think the Pats are always good.
1. They adapt and evolve. I don't feel they get stuck on specific systems year after year. They evolve what they do and adapt to what their players who are playing each week do best.
2. They are not relying on the same talented players. Tom Brady has been the only constant for them. Most teams who have successful runs, granted most runs are not as long as what the Pats have, rely on the same guys. They don't get attached to keeping the same guys.
3. They bring in some talented players without using major resources. I think Corey Dillon was one, Randy Moss, Aqib Talib, and Darrelle Revis are a few others that come to mind. This allows them to have some really talented veterans without using a high draft pick or a lot of their cap space on them.
4. They maintain an edge and a focus. I don't know exactly how Belichick does it but it's my impression.
I think it is the adapt and evolve that I really like from this post, but I would add something to it. They evolve for each game to each team's weaknesses and strengths. No coach is better at gameplans than Belichick. I hate the Patriots but he is the best coach by a mile in my opinion. Even when he has not had talent, he puts them in position to win, and it is due to gameplans and adjustments. He must work tirelessly during the season.
Also the club has continuity running through it. He has one rule for everyone, and if you don't do it, you are gone, no matter how good you are. And if you are good and hit a certain age and he can still get value, he will. Brady's suspension was a godsend in the fact it allowed him to showcase Garropolo, and he will get a 2nd and 3rd probably for him after the season is over. Just watch. He has Briskett, and although I don't know when Brady will finally succumb to age, I think he has another 2-3 yrs. in him. Even if he does not, his gameplans allow QB's to step in and win! Everyone hates the Patriots because of Envy. I love my Colts but I wish Bill would retire.
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I just wanted to put this out there for discussion. I believe we are set at OL for the future. The young guys we drafted last year played well for the most part and got stronger towards the end of the year. Very few OL in their rookie year do well due to how different the NFL game is from college and lack of coaching due to the spread. Additionally, the CBA has hurt lineman more because you don't have time as far as actual practices anymore. I don't think we realize how limited the number of practices where you can actually hit one another is, and how it has stunted OL growth. Regardless, the only thing I would like to do is get a good LT and move Castanzo to RT. That would be my only move on the OL, since I think it is going to grow and get much better. I look at Pittsburgh's line, which is very similar to ours as far as how they drafted players, and it took them a year to mesh and really start improving.
The one question I have is if you believe OL is still a need, would you consider Cam Robinson from Alabama at LT. I can't remember the LT from ND who may come out, but right now Robinson is the only OL who is considered in the top 20. The only team who really needs to rebuild their OL who drafts early is SD, so they could take him, If he was there, would you consider him, or are you more inclined to how I see the OL for the future. Thoughts?
Reuben Foster has rotator cuff surgery
in NFL Draft, Scouting, and Free Agent Talk
Posted
There are a few medical issues now with Hooker, Ramcyzk, Allen, Foster, and I am sure we will find more that will cause players to fall. If Foster falls, he has been the player I wanted all along. He would immediately be the alpha dog in the middle we need. My only fear is he is so athletic and has no fear. He hits hard and can cover, and kept getting knicked up last year. Concussion syndrome is starting to be something many players are having trouble coming back from. Regardless, he would be my pick unless Hooker somehow fell due to his shoulder (labrum I believe) surgery causes him to drop.
Players will drop so far we will not believe are eyes. It always happens. Jack last year to the 2nd. The Baylor NT everyone hear wanted in the 1st round dropped to the late 4th due to knee problems which were not reported prior, which was a surprise. Point is, plenty of good talent will drop, you just have to decide if you can gamble and how much. We cannot gamble, but I do not see Foster as a gamble. Kelly was who I wanted the whole time through last year never waivered. Foster this year fits every box we need for an ILB. If he drops, run up to the mic. and pick him!