cjwhiskers
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Posts posted by cjwhiskers
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16 minutes ago, Superman said:
I have macro, philosophical pushback, which is basically covered in this article:
- "The draft is an absolute petri dish for every cognitive bias underneath the sun."
- "Teams massively overestimate their abilities to delineate between stars and flops, and because of that they overvalue the 'right to choose' in the draft."
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"'I firmly do not believe you trade a high pick, which is going to be a difference-maker, in order to pick up two picks,' he (Polian) said.
- "But that's the issue, one former NFL executive pointed out. That logic assumes the player you're initially picking will actually become a difference-maker."
- "'The problem for everyone in sports is that nobody wants to admit how random and arbitrary it is,' the former NFL executive said. 'Admitting that it's arbitrary takes away from your specific abilities.'"
So my pushback is that talking yourself into a specific player is inherently risky. Ask the Panthers. Doesn't mean you can't be right, but I think if you analyze the results of trade-ups for prospects, there's no consistent success. You can tell me all day long that MHJ and Nabers are the best prospects of the last five years -- and I don't necessarily disagree -- but the truth is that no one really knows what they'll become in the NFL. And the way we talk about our favorite prospects doesn't accurately reflect that reality. We're all guilty at times of talking about these guys like they're locks, but history tells us that anyone can bust, at any spot in the draft.
My more specific pushback is that I think the way this year's draft is expected to go at the top will result in the Colts still having a great menu of options available at #15, and they can still get a prospect they really like who has playmaker potential without trading up. Especially if you're eyeing a WR. So as much as I would love to have one of the top three receivers, I don't see the value in moving up this year. (And I'll admit a personal bias: I love Brian Thomas Jr, and think we'd be in great shape if we drafted him at #15.)
Edit: To the point of trying to support the QB with offensive playmakers, I'd rather see us trade #15 for an established player than to use #15 plus two more highly valuable picks to draft a question mark. He's probably not the right fit, but you can probably get Aiyuk for that pick. Or go crazy and give up the package you're suggesting we use for MHJ to trade for CeeDee Lamb. I'm all for supporting the QB, but if we're going to sacrifice major draft capital, go after a proven player.
Thank you for sharing the snippets and I appreciate the perspective.
If one thing is clear, the reason trading back works is because the draft is an absolute crap shoot. That dynamic can support both arguments in my opinion. e.g. more picks = higher chance of getting a difference maker or selling picks isn't that big of a deal because what you're giving away may not be actually worth much anyway. It can play both ways.
If the team has done their due diligence on a player and truthfully has confidence I'm all for going after him, even if it turns out they are wrong. I want to be clear and say I'm not recommending we give up the farm. Hypothetically if this team makes playoffs which would be the expectation, the pick we are selling (assuming it takes a 1 next year) isn't going to be very high to begin with.
Ballard did it with JT...worked out pretty well. I know that wasn't a massive trade up but still the point is, they see a player they like and they go and get him.
To your other point, I would not necessarily be opposed going after a proven play maker like Aiyuk either. Very Buckner esque trade. However, you're then passing up on the salary cap savings + unknown NFL potential for a proven commodity and draft capital. What's worth more is really dependent on who you ask clearly.
It goes back to risk and not one size fits all. Both strategies can work and both require quite a bit of luck. Seeing where this team is at, where the NFL is going rules wise and the recent examples of QB's skyrocketting after getting a special playmaker, I just think that's what would be best at this time.
Not for nothing, we've done the trade back thing time and time again and people still constantly complain about our roster not being good. It will be fun to see what Chris does next week and how much if at all he's influenced by Shane/Irsay/etc.
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21 minutes ago, Superman said:
Coincidentally, just came across this piece on The Athletic talking about trading back as the best strategy. Hits on some of the points we were discussing.
It's behind a pay wall =/. "Look"
I'm not saying I don't want a "complete" team, I just strongly feel this team needs another offensive weapon and I'd prefer we spend that extra draft capital to make that happen. Whether that's Nabers, or MHJ I'm indifferent but I do think MHJ will have a lot of success for a long time in this league.
I've always loved Ballard's strategy of acquiring picks and players. I've never criticized him for that and have celebrated it. This is the year to move up and get a play maker. We will not be picking this high next year regardless if it's Flacco or AR at QB.
If there is a guy they really like, let's take the chance. They need to do whatever they possibly can to help AR be successful.
In reality what will most likely happen is they stay put or trade back. They wait and see how AR does this year with the current roster and re-evaluate their go/no-go strategy for next season. I'm not completely opposed to this but I think they are good enough this year to be a playoff team as is. Add a weapon and you can create some magic.
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2 minutes ago, adubb84 said:
Thoughts? Schrager “tends” to be the most accurate mock drafter as he has sourced information based on conversations he has. He has the Colts moving to the 9 spot to grab Nabers. I would be extremely elated. I was also like to point out that the 9 spot is best position to also possibly grab Turner and or Bowers. Don’t think it would take much. Lots of smoke going on..Feels like Ballads may finally move up this year. 9 days left!
If Nabers is there @ 9 you absolutely pull that trigger.
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7 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:
The Chiefs defense was absolutely elite last year and made up for a mediocre Mahomes (by his standards). Also, there are rankings to determine if defenses are good, bad, mediocre, and all that. You don't just get to say the large majority of defenses can be considered mediocre, stats and rankings prove otherwise. We don't go by the eye test anymore. The Colts had the 28th best defense last year. Those are the players we re-signed. I understand there were injuries and Stewart was out for 6 games (which hurt the run defense), but the secondary was terrible, and we should have traded for Sneed.
You do need an elite defense in the playoffs.
Ranked 28th? By what metrics, genuinely curious because that seems incredibly low. They were top 10-15 in most statistical categories...
We have two young but promising corners, loading up on defense when you don't even know what you have in a quarterback just doesn't make sense to me. You do everything in your power to make that quarterback successful because that in itself gives you the BEST chance for success. You go as your quarterback does. Not you go as your corner does, or your safety or your edge rusher.
I'm not saying defense isn't important but it's less important than putting pieces around AR and giving him the biggest chance to be successful. Look at the Jets...could've easily been the leagues top defense with the amount of play makers they have on their roster...Team didn't go anywhere because they couldn't score.
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6 minutes ago, CoachLite said:
It's amazing how two people can watch the same thing and come to very different conclusions. Last year, the Colts defense was mediocre at best.
The large majority of defenses in the NFL can be considered “mediocre”. The Colts defense did plenty to keep the games winnable and that’s all you can ask of a defense in today’s NFL.
Let me ask you, was it the Browns top defense that won the Super Bowl? Was it the Ravens? Was it the 49ers?
You don’t need an elite defense. You need an elite offense that scores consistently and in clutch moments.
Colts resigning all of their own defensive players back is really all you need to know about how this organization views their own defense.
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1 hour ago, throwing BBZ said:
The issue seems to be that you don’t understand our many deficiencies on D, and how effective Steichen will use the many weapons he has on offense with another season of experience. We desperately need those picks to improve the TEAM.
Deficiencies on D? Give me a break. This defense is more than good enough in an offensive league to win games. Defense was not the Colts problem last year.
The issue seems to be that you think the NFL still cares about defense and low scoring games. Offense need playmakers and the defense just needs to hang on.
Getting a stud offensive play maker would easily move this teams needle far more than adding a stud defensive player.
The most important position on this team is quarterback, agree? What do you do to help the most important position out? Surround him with talent at play making positions.
Anyone who doesn’t look at the transformation of Jalen Hurts getting AJ Brown or Josh Allen getting Diggs or Burrow having Chase as a good comparison for AR needs to remember what’s important in todays NFL, scoring points.
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2 hours ago, Superman said:
I agree that first rounders get overvalued at times. But I think part of that is people/teams viewing first rounders as if they are surefire playmakers on your roster, when in reality even teams that do a good job in the draft miss on first rounders all the time.
And that's why the bolded doesn't seem like best practice either. You can talk yourself into any player. I think trading up in the first round is very risky. I'm not totally against it, but generally speaking, the best way to maximize your drafting is to maximize your total picks, not to concentrate all your draft capital into one selection. If your confidence in that one player is misplaced, you've now sunk two firsts and a second into a mistake.
I don't strictly stick to the traditional points chart, and neither do teams, but I want to use the points just to illustrate my point. Pick #4 is worth 1,800 points. We have #15 which is worth 1,050 points, so of course you have to make up the 750 point difference. So you propose trading #15, plus the 2025 first (approx 1,000 points, potentially more or less depending on where you land next year), and the 2024 second (440 points), to get to #4. That's almost 2,500 points in draft value, in return for a pick worth 1,800 points.
My point is that you're concentrating a lot of value into one high draft pick, on the basis of your high level of conviction in one prospect, so you really need to be right, otherwise it's very costly. I personally wouldn't do this unless it was for a QB that I felt really strong about.
I definitely don’t disagree with this but ultimately I think it comes down to your appetite for risk and both strategies can work effectively. I think this is the year to trade up. What we saw from this team last year was enough to tell me with competent QB play we can be a playoff team. Get him a weapon that has a proven college track record and is a lineage player who knows exactly what it takes to make it in the NFL.-
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I think 1st round picks are severely overrated. If you have very high confidence in a player then go up and get him. Especially if you think the team is good enough to be towards the bottom of the draft order the following year. If all it took was two 1s and a 2 to move up to get him pull that trigger all day everyday.
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Darius Butler talking about it now. He's crushed and is struggling getting through it. Sounds like he received confirmation via some close friends/family.
Definitely sounds like Vontae was struggling a bit based on some of the comments.
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They just talked about it a bit on Pat's show.
So sad to hear. Between how he retired, what we saw of him via Hard Knocks, I imagine this is unfortunately mental health related. He always struck me as a guy that was dealing with some demons and I hope he's at peace.
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3 minutes ago, Crunked said:
For me I care less about what we "pay" Sneed, the cap can be massaged to make it work the "capologists" can figure that out...I am far more concerned on what picks we give up.......
This is how I also feel. We see teams “over cap” constantly and teams like the Eagles make cap work time and time again.
An extra few million isn’t going to make a difference. It’s all about the guarantee to shield yourself from future dead cap and the capital you’re giving up. I’d be happy with giving up a 2 or less.
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Exactly what I wanted. A solid vet that can help bring AR along. Flacco is a Super Bowl winning QB and beloved by his teammates. I think outside of his ability to sling it, he can help AR a lot with the mental/leadership side of the game.
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Lots of good corners move to safety towards the end of their career. I don’t think that’s the case with Kenny just yet but maybe in a few more years.
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In my opinion finding a VET that can help ARs progress should be the biggest priority. Finding one that can win games in a pinch should be the second priority.
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Just now, jvan1973 said:
Fields is obviously not an option.
What makes you so sure? BEARS aren't getting the calls or comp they've been looking for. I think I saw something today that even mentioned the Colts/Eagles are both teams interested in Fields.
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Just now, Superman said:
Yall still trying to make Sam Ehlinger happen?
I would like a vet but not sure who they will get. Could see them go after:
- Jacoby Brissett
- Tyrod Taylor
- Justin Fields
- Zach Wilson
- Josh Dobbs
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Just now, SwedishColt said:
Great season and I LOVE Steichen but that was a horrible call on 4th and 1.
Give your best players chances to make plats when it matters most. Not some RB who spent most of the season on the PS
Exactly this. You give your superstar the ball to make plays in superstar moments. The play itself isn’t even an issue for me. It’s the substitution that is.-
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Just now, Smonroe said:
It was a good call.
4th and 1 and you put your 4th string RB out there after a drive that you barely let your QB throw once?
Will strongly disagree that being a good call considering the circumstance and the substitution.
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That play call will be the defining moment of Shane’s season. All the good he did will not outshine that moment.
Remember, he’s a rookie HC. This needs to be a learning moment for him.
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1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:
The last few years, the NFL has been trying to do that to everyone. Give teams roughly a month of divisional games to start and roughly the same to end the season. It’s been very deliberate to try to generate more interest at the most important times of the season.
Was not aware of this! Thanks.
2022 - 5 division games in first 7.
2023 - 4 division games in first 6.
With how badly this Colts team has been at the start of seasons it’s basically been a death sentence every year. Hopefully those days are gone with Steichen.
Still seems a bit lopsided to me but I will certainly take the favorable next 3 games. Hoping the team finishes strong. If they can’t win at least 2/3 they do not deserve playoffs.
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4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:
Yup…. It’s not far fetched.
We finish with..
In Atlanta…
Home with Raiders….
Home with Texas…
It’s not a terrible gauntlet the Colts have to survive… It’s doable.
The schedule makers did us a favor. The Colts opened the season with back to back at home, and now the Colts close with back to back at home. A real gift.
Slight payback for them consistently giving us terrible schedules IMO. Haven’t we started multiple years front loaded with divisional games? This year it was like 4 in the first 6.
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Gardner played a great game. Smart with the football, a couple of miss throws but some really really bad drops by the WRs/TEs. He would have had 5 TDs if 2 easy ones weren't dropped.
O-line played great once they started handling Watt with those quick passes and rollouts. Overall a great offensive game.
You can tell Matt Gay is a new dad. Dude just looks absolutely exhausted. I hope he's able to get back to form. Missing 2 FGs and dropping 2 TDs left a ton of points on the field.
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Very undisciplined game. Penalties from the jump killed the drives.
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33 minutes ago, craigerb said:
...or 1/6 if you count the negative 2 pt. conversion!
you’re right! Even worse
I'm not saying I don't want a "complete" team, I just strongly feel this team needs another offensive weapon and I'd prefer we spend that extra draft capital to make that happen. Whether that's Nabers, or MHJ I'm indifferent but I do think MHJ will have a lot of success for a long time in this league.
What is Chris Ballard MOST LIKELY to do in the 1st Round of the 2024 NFL Draft?
in Colts Football
Posted
We are trading up.